Mr. Beat | Do polls actually predict election results? @iammrbeat | Uploaded 3 days ago | Updated 5 hours ago
Yes. I mean...no.
This video might possibly drive you crazy. I know it drove me crazy researching it.
Produced by Matt Beat.
Sources/further reading:
theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls
fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-was-the-national-polling-environment-so-off-in-2020
statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error
corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/data-science/non-sampling-error
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Hey man, got any of that SAWEET polling data? I need me some more delicious polling data. GIVE IT TO ME.
Wait a second, does polling actually predict election results?
Most of the time, yes. Actually. But while polls may give us a GENERAL picture of who will win, they are much less accurate predicting by how much. For example, they generally predicted Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election, but they were about 4 percentage points off.
Itās not surprising that polls wouldnāt be completely accurate because any time we conduct polls thereās a margin of error, the range of values below and above a sample statistic to let us know how much a poll could be wrong. Since itās nearly impossible to poll EVERY SINGLE VOTER before an election, EVERY poll has a sampling error. But there are also non-sampling errors because stuff just goes wrong, man. (list them on screen)
So what does that mean for the upcoming 2024 election? Well, based on polls, it could be extremely close or a landslide victory for Trump or Harris. Oh no.
Yes. I mean...no.
This video might possibly drive you crazy. I know it drove me crazy researching it.
Produced by Matt Beat.
Sources/further reading:
theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls
fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-was-the-national-polling-environment-so-off-in-2020
statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error
corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/data-science/non-sampling-error
Join this channel to get access to perks:
youtube.com/channel/UCmYesELO6axBrCuSpf7S9DQ/join
For business inquiries or to send snail mail to Mr. Beat:
iammrbeat.com/contact.html
youtube.com/c/iammrbeat/about
How to support and donate to my channel:
Subscribe to @iammrbeat & hit the notification bell š
Join for great perks on Patreon: patreon.com/iammrbeat
Donate to Mr. Beat on Paypal: paypal.me/mrbeat
Buy Mr. Beat a coffee: ko-fi.com/iammrbeat
Cameo: cameo.com/iammrbeat
Subscribe to my second channel: The Beat Goes On
Patreon for The Beat Goes On: patreon.com/thebeatgoeson
Connect with me:
Links: https://linktr.ee/iammrbeat
Website: iammrbeat.com
Podcast: https://anchor.fm/thebeatpod
Reddit: reddit.com/r/mrbeat
@beatmastermatt on Twitter: twitter.com/beatmastermatt
Facebook: facebook.com/iammrbeat
Instagram: instagram.com/iammrbeat
Beatcord: discord.gg/g8cZPjt
TikTok: tiktok.com/@iammrbeat
Merch:
matt-beat-shop.fourthwall.com
bonfire.com/store/mr-beat
https://sfsf.shop/support-mrbeat/
amzn.to/3fdakiZ
Affiliate Links:
Useful Charts: usefulcharts.com/?aff=12
Fourthwall: link.fourthwall.com/MrBeat
StreamYard: streamyard.com/pal/d/5272340869152768
Hey man, got any of that SAWEET polling data? I need me some more delicious polling data. GIVE IT TO ME.
Wait a second, does polling actually predict election results?
Most of the time, yes. Actually. But while polls may give us a GENERAL picture of who will win, they are much less accurate predicting by how much. For example, they generally predicted Joe Biden would win the 2020 presidential election, but they were about 4 percentage points off.
Itās not surprising that polls wouldnāt be completely accurate because any time we conduct polls thereās a margin of error, the range of values below and above a sample statistic to let us know how much a poll could be wrong. Since itās nearly impossible to poll EVERY SINGLE VOTER before an election, EVERY poll has a sampling error. But there are also non-sampling errors because stuff just goes wrong, man. (list them on screen)
So what does that mean for the upcoming 2024 election? Well, based on polls, it could be extremely close or a landslide victory for Trump or Harris. Oh no.
