![[CSA Series] Can SEA Safeguard Strategic Autonomy in Critical Minerals as US–China Rivalry Deepens? @LKYSchool](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/pNTeaae0ELM/maxresdefault.jpg)
Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Critical minerals, including nickel, rare earth elements, cobalt, tin, lithium, and copper, have become the defining resource contest of the twenty-first century, underpinning the global energy transition, advanced manufacturing, and defence industries. Southeast Asia sits at the heart of this competition: Indonesia controls over 40 percent of global nickel reserves; Vietnam holds one of the world’s largest, rare earth deposits; and the Philippines, Myanmar, and Malaysia each occupy significant positions in global supply chains. For a region long defined by great-power hedging and ASEAN-style non-alignment, the scramble for critical minerals has created a heightened strategic dilemma.
The intensification of US–China rivalry has transformed routine resource-sector decisions into geopolitical choices. The US Inflation Reduction Act restricts green-energy subsidies to materials sourced from US trading partners, effectively disadvantaging Indonesia in the absence of a bilateral free trade agreement and amid Chinese capital dominance in its nickel sector. China, meanwhile, has locked in upstream assets through Belt and Road investments, extended its processing dominance across many critical minerals, and restricted the export of certain rare earth–related technologies. In this context, Southeast Asian states seek to leverage their endowments without being captured by either side.
Yet resource abundance does not automatically translate into strategic autonomy. Indonesia’s aggressive export ban on nickel ore drew significant smelting investment but deepened dependence on Chinese capital and invited a WTO challenge from the EU. By contrast, Vietnam’s neutrality paired with deep FTA integration has attracted a large share of manufacturers relocating from China. Furthermore, domestic oligarchic coalitions sometimes override official diversification commitments, and ASEAN-level coordination through the ASEAN Minerals Cooperation Action Plan (AMCAP-IV) 2026–2030 remains a non-binding regional framework. Without robust institutional anchors, hedging may become increasingly difficult.
Counterpoint Southeast Asia (CSA) is a policy brief series that tackles strategic and complex questions facing Southeast Asia by presenting the perspectives of regional academics and policy experts. It is organised by the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
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Speakers:
Vlado Vivoda, a scholar and geopolitical analyst specializing in critical minerals, energy security and geoeconomic strategy
Trissia Wijaya, a Mckenzie Research Fellow at the Asia Institute, University of Melbourne
Angela Tritto, Assistant Professor of Human-Nature Interactions and Biodiversity at the Institute of Asian Studies, University of Brunei Darussalam.
Moderator:
Dr Barbora Valockova, Research Fellow, Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
#SoutheastAsia #CriticalMinerals #CounterpointSEA #CAG_LKYSPP #governanceforthefuture #publicpolicy #policymatters
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Critical minerals, including nickel, rare earth elements, cobalt, tin, lithium, and copper, have become the defining resource contest of the twenty-first century, underpinning the global energy transition, advanced manufacturing, and defence industries. Southeast Asia sits at the heart of this competition: Indonesia controls over 40 percent of global nickel reserves; Vietnam holds one of the world’s largest, rare earth deposits; and the Philippines, Myanmar, and Malaysia each occupy significant positions in global supply chains. For a region long defined by great-power hedging and ASEAN-style non-alignment, the scramble for critical minerals has created a heightened strategic dilemma.
The intensification of US–China rivalry has transformed routine resource-sector decisions into geopolitical choices. The US Inflation Reduction Act restricts green-energy subsidies to materials sourced from US trading partners, effectively disadvantaging Indonesia in the absence of a bilateral free trade agreement and amid Chinese capital dominance in its nickel sector. China, meanwhile, has locked in upstream assets through Belt and Road investments, extended its processing dominance across many critical minerals, and restricted the export of certain rare earth–related technologies. In this context, Southeast Asian states seek to leverage their endowments without being captured by either side.
Yet resource abundance does not automatically translate into strategic autonomy. Indonesia’s aggressive export ban on nickel ore drew significant smelting investment but deepened dependence on Chinese capital and invited a WTO challenge from the EU. By contrast, Vietnam’s neutrality paired with deep FTA integration has attracted a large share of manufacturers relocating from China. Furthermore, domestic oligarchic coalitions sometimes override official diversification commitments, and ASEAN-level coordination through the ASEAN Minerals Cooperation Action Plan (AMCAP-IV) 2026–2030 remains a non-binding regional framework. Without robust institutional anchors, hedging may become increasingly difficult.
Counterpoint Southeast Asia (CSA) is a policy brief series that tackles strategic and complex questions facing Southeast Asia by presenting the perspectives of regional academics and policy experts. It is organised by the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
================================================
Speakers:
Vlado Vivoda, a scholar and geopolitical analyst specializing in critical minerals, energy security and geoeconomic strategy
Trissia Wijaya, a Mckenzie Research Fellow at the Asia Institute, University of Melbourne
Angela Tritto, Assistant Professor of Human-Nature Interactions and Biodiversity at the Institute of Asian Studies, University of Brunei Darussalam.
Moderator:
Dr Barbora Valockova, Research Fellow, Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
#SoutheastAsia #CriticalMinerals #CounterpointSEA #CAG_LKYSPP #governanceforthefuture #publicpolicy #policymatters
================================================
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Subscribe to CSA: cag-lkyspp.com/csa-subscribe
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![[CSA Series] Can SEA Safeguard Strategic Autonomy in Critical Minerals as US–China Rivalry Deepens?](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/pNTeaae0ELM/mqdefault.jpg "[CSA Series] Can SEA Safeguard Strategic Autonomy in Critical Minerals as US–China Rivalry Deepens?
Critical minerals, including nickel, rare earth elements, cobalt, tin, lithium, and copper, have become the defining resource contest of the twenty-first century, underpinning the global energy transition, advanced manufacturing, and defence industries. Southeast Asia sits at the heart of this competition: Indonesia controls over 40 percent of global nickel reserves; Vietnam holds one of the world’s largest, rare earth deposits; and the Philippines, Myanmar, and Malaysia each occupy significant positions in global supply chains. For a region long defined by great-power hedging and ASEAN-style non-alignment, the scramble for critical minerals has created a heightened strategic dilemma.
The intensification of US–China rivalry has transformed routine resource-sector decisions into geopolitical choices. The US Inflation Reduction Act restricts green-energy subsidies to materials sourced from US trading partners, effectively disadvantaging Indonesia in the absence of a bilateral free trade agreement and amid Chinese capital dominance in its nickel sector. China, meanwhile, has locked in upstream assets through Belt and Road investments, extended its processing dominance across many critical minerals, and restricted the export of certain rare earth–related technologies. In this context, Southeast Asian states seek to leverage their endowments without being captured by either side.
Yet resource abundance does not automatically translate into strategic autonomy. Indonesia’s aggressive export ban on nickel ore drew significant smelting investment but deepened dependence on Chinese capital and invited a WTO challenge from the EU. By contrast, Vietnam’s neutrality paired with deep FTA integration has attracted a large share of manufacturers relocating from China. Furthermore, domestic oligarchic coalitions sometimes override official diversification commitments, and ASEAN-level coordination through the ASEAN Minerals Cooperation Action Plan (AMCAP-IV) 2026–2030 remains a non-binding regional framework. Without robust institutional anchors, hedging may become increasingly difficult.
Counterpoint Southeast Asia (CSA) is a policy brief series that tackles strategic and complex questions facing Southeast Asia by presenting the perspectives of regional academics and policy experts. It is organised by the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
Speakers:
Vlado Vivoda, a scholar and geopolitical analyst specializing in critical minerals, energy security and geoeconomic strategy
Trissia Wijaya, a Mckenzie Research Fellow at the Asia Institute, University of Melbourne
Angela Tritto, Assistant Professor of Human-Nature Interactions and Biodiversity at the Institute of Asian Studies, University of Brunei Darussalam.
Moderator:
Dr Barbora Valockova, Research Fellow, Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
#SoutheastAsia #CriticalMinerals #CounterpointSEA #CAG_LKYSPP #governanceforthefuture #publicpolicy #policymatters
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![[LKYSPP Alumni] Making an Impact in Geopolitics](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/q0nC2XjEQ3k/mqdefault.jpg "[LKYSPP Alumni] Making an Impact in Geopolitics
What drives some individuals to thrive in the complex world of geopolitics, and what changes do they aspire to effect?
Our alumni Alyona Seth (MIA 2021), an Intelligence Manager at Max Security Solutions, and Hao Nan (MPP 2020), a former Political Affairs Programme Officer at the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, share their journeys, challenges, and aspirations in pursuing a career that requires them to stay engaged in policy issues on geopolitics.
Discover how studying at LKYSPP equipped them with the knowledge, skills, and networks to navigate the complexities of the geopolitical landscape,and empower them to strive for meaningful change.
#governanceforthefuture #publicpolicy #policymatters
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![[CSA series] Can the AEC Succeed in a Two-Tier ASEAN?](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qBzesa3vLdg/mqdefault.jpg "[CSA series] Can the AEC Succeed in a Two-Tier ASEAN?
ASEAN aims to realise the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2025. This ambitious project would require a high degree of economic integration among its member states. However, there appears to be a “two-tier ASEAN” in which there exists a wide economic divide between the original and more developed member states of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand (ASEAN-6) and the newer transitional economies of Cambodia, Myanmar, Lao PDR and Viet Nam (CLMV). The Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) was launched in 2000 to narrow this economic development gap and the deadline of its most recent work plan coincides with the realisation of the AEC by 2025. How effective has the IAI been in achieving some level of economic convergence? Has the recent Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated this economic division? Given the significant challenges in narrowing the development gap, can the AEC succeed in a two-tier ASEAN?
In our 7th Counterpoint Southeast Asia public webinar, we ask: “Can the AEC Succeed in a Two-Tier ASEAN?” and invite three Southeast Asian analysts to provide their unique perspectives.
Counterpoint Southeast Asia is a webinar and policy brief series that tackles strategic and complex questions facing Southeast Asia by presenting the perspectives of regional academics and policy experts. It is organised by the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
Speakers:
## Jayant Menon, Senior Fellow, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute
## Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, Head and Assistant Professor, Centre for Multilateralism Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University
## Quynh Huong Nguyen, Economic Affairs Consultant, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
Chairperson:
Denis Hew, Senior Research Fellow, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
#CounterpointSEA #ASEAN #AEC #CAG_LKYSPP
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![[LKYSPP Alumni] Switching to a Rewarding Public Policy Career](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/r_9g5oREHwA/mqdefault.jpg "[LKYSPP Alumni] Switching to a Rewarding Public Policy Career
Have you been thinking about going back to school to develop and hone your skillset for a different career trajectory?
Here, we asked our LKYSPP our Master in Public Policy Alumni members: James Tay (MPP 2018) who is now Operations Officer, The World Bank and Saravanan Sugumaran (MPP 2018) who is now Senior Assistant Director, Centre for Liveable Cities to share their stories on why they picked Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy to pursue their postgraduate degree.
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![[CSA series] How Should Southeast Asia Strengthen Economic Security?](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rk9XEEYh-d0/mqdefault.jpg "[CSA series] How Should Southeast Asia Strengthen Economic Security?
The geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia has undergone significant transformation, challenging the region’s traditional approaches to economic security. The heightened US-China rivalry has created an environment of geo-economic fragmentation, forcing ASEAN and its member states to reconsider their strategic approaches. This rivalry has led to reconfigurations in global supply chains, resulting in trade diversion and fragmented production networks that threaten ASEAN’s longstanding emphasis on economic interdependence and cooperation.
Economic security in Southeast Asia has historically been framed within the concept of “comprehensive security,” focusing on economic development and integration as strategic approaches to achieve regional security. ASEAN has implemented various initiatives like the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA), ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA), and broader frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to foster closer economic integration and ensure security.
However, emerging challenges – including digital transformation accelerated by the pandemic, and demographic trends like aging populations – require rethinking traditional security paradigms. Climate change further complicates the region’s economic security landscape by affecting food production and commodity price stability. The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, with his emphasis on reshoring and protectionist policies, poses additional challenges to the region’s export-oriented economies.
As ASEAN navigates this complex environment, several questions emerge: How should Southeast Asia strengthen economic security in the face of current geopolitical challenges? Should the concept of economic security be redefined to align with today’s geoeconomic realities? Can ASEAN maintain its relevance as a champion of regional economic security? What role can other actors and institutions play in complementing ASEAN’s efforts to manage external shocks and promote economic resilience?
Counterpoint Southeast Asia (CSA) is a policy brief series that tackles strategic and complex questions facing Southeast Asia by presenting the perspectives of regional academics and policy experts. It is organised by the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
Speakers:
Dr Denis Hew, Senior Research Fellow, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
Ms Joanne Lin, Senior Fellow and Co-Coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore
Ms Catharine Kho, Senior Economist, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
Dr Pasha L. Hsieh, Jean Monnet Chair Professor, Yong Pung How School of Law, Singapore Management University
Moderator:
Dr Barbora Valockova, Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
3. Hashtags: #SoutheastAsia #EconomicSecurity #CounterpointSEA #CAG_LKYSPP
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![[Foreseeable Podcast] The socio-economic impact of mobile banking on developing economies](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/tLnQqHCjyfU/mqdefault.jpg "[Foreseeable Podcast] The socio-economic impact of mobile banking on developing economies
Access to mobile banking can have a profound impact on people in developing economies. The impact of mobile banking extends beyond individual lives – it ripples through entire communities, affecting aspects such as migration and inequality.
Dr Saravana Ravindran, Assistant Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, joins us to explore the socio-economic impact of mobile banking on communities.
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