Looking Glass Universe | Coronavirus: why you should stay home @LookingGlassUniverse | Uploaded 4 years ago | Updated 3 hours ago
Here's an informative video on social distancing by a Dr Rohin from MedLifeCrisis: https://youtu.be/ofSLpDQx1bA
I also highly recommend this site for understanding what the data we have: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
And this video from 3Blue1Brown that explains the mathematics of exponential growth:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
REFERENCES:
0:58 To find the fatality rates for different age groups, see: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
1:05 ‘You are likely to spread it to 2-3 other people’ claim is based on the paper: https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf
1:40 Death rates for underlying conditions quoted were based on this information: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#deaths-from-covid-19
2:51 ‘Number of official cases in the USA is likely to be a huge underestimate’ because of how few test have been administered. See Chart 8 on this page: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts
3:12 The statement “without drastic measures, the problem gets 10 times worse in a week” is based on the data in the graph below. The data from this graph comes from WHO’s official count. The slope of the lines in this graph determine how quick the so-called ‘doubling time’ is: the time till the problem is 2 times worse. You can see that initially, before much has been done, this slope is often consistent with a doubling time of less than 2 days, but it goes to between 2 and 3 days once a country is at least doing something, but has not imposed a lockdown on nonessential gatherings and closed schools etc. The USA (before the recommendation that just came out) had a doubling time of around 2 days (although it’s hard to say because of the testing situation mentioned below). That translates to the problem being 10 times worse in just under a week. In other places the doubling time was more like 2.5 days, in which case it’s 10 times worse in 8 days. Public awareness and bans on mass gatherings seem to help to bring the doubling time, usually to around 4 days. But when lockdowns are imposed it seems to get dramatically lower.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case
4:34 Flatten the curve infographic: https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1236721200291655680
5:20 ‘350 thousand beds’ claim can be computed from these two sources:
https://data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/185904/hospital-occupancy-rate-in-the-us-since-2001/
5:32 ‘3-5% death rate in overwhelmed healthcare systems, and potentially much higher’ claim is from source:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article
6:00 The Washington Post simulation is available here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
As well as Kevin Simler’s playable simulation (highly recommended!): https://meltingasphalt.com/outbreak/
8:09 Virus symptoms infographic: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#
8:24 ‘20%+ of infections from those who have no symptoms is based on this paper: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html
ONLINE RESOURCES FOR LEARNING (to keep you occupied):
www.brilliant.org: You can signup without putting in your credit card details to do the daily challenges. You can also try the first chapter of every one of their courses for free this way. At the moment they have a free trial that let’s you do everything on the site, but you will need a credit card for that one. Disclaimer, I’m going to start working for Brilliant soon, but they’ve not asked me to do this or anything- I just really like the site.
3blue1brown has a lot of fantastic videos and I’m sure you’ve seen them, but have you watched his whole linear algebra series? It’s a gem, and useful to know too!: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZHQObOWTQDPD3MizzM2xVFitgF8hE_ab
Socratica has beautiful in depth videos on all sorts of topics. I’m going to take this chance to follow their python course: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW6TXMZ5Pq6yL6_k5NZ2e0Q
Science4All is run by the extremely likable Frenchman Dr. Lê Nguyên Hoang. Why not learn some general relativity? I know you’ve always wanted to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SUs_o6EEVs&list=PL8ovs-QtxcNydaiz8LSPpo8G0fatCqdTQ
Leonard Susskind's Theoretical Minimum series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL701CD168D02FF56F
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Thank you Le from Science4All for prompting me to make this video by pointing out how urgent this message is, and helping so much with the script. Thank you also to Josh Silverman for his many invaluable comments on the script that made this a much better video. Thank you Dr Rohin from MedLifeCrisis for offering to check the script even though he’s working so hard because of COVID19. And thank you to Dr M.K. for vetting the medical accuracy here. There are no doubt mistakes left, but those are all my own.
Here's an informative video on social distancing by a Dr Rohin from MedLifeCrisis: https://youtu.be/ofSLpDQx1bA
I also highly recommend this site for understanding what the data we have: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
And this video from 3Blue1Brown that explains the mathematics of exponential growth:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
REFERENCES:
0:58 To find the fatality rates for different age groups, see: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
1:05 ‘You are likely to spread it to 2-3 other people’ claim is based on the paper: https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf
1:40 Death rates for underlying conditions quoted were based on this information: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#deaths-from-covid-19
2:51 ‘Number of official cases in the USA is likely to be a huge underestimate’ because of how few test have been administered. See Chart 8 on this page: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts
3:12 The statement “without drastic measures, the problem gets 10 times worse in a week” is based on the data in the graph below. The data from this graph comes from WHO’s official count. The slope of the lines in this graph determine how quick the so-called ‘doubling time’ is: the time till the problem is 2 times worse. You can see that initially, before much has been done, this slope is often consistent with a doubling time of less than 2 days, but it goes to between 2 and 3 days once a country is at least doing something, but has not imposed a lockdown on nonessential gatherings and closed schools etc. The USA (before the recommendation that just came out) had a doubling time of around 2 days (although it’s hard to say because of the testing situation mentioned below). That translates to the problem being 10 times worse in just under a week. In other places the doubling time was more like 2.5 days, in which case it’s 10 times worse in 8 days. Public awareness and bans on mass gatherings seem to help to bring the doubling time, usually to around 4 days. But when lockdowns are imposed it seems to get dramatically lower.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case
4:34 Flatten the curve infographic: https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1236721200291655680
5:20 ‘350 thousand beds’ claim can be computed from these two sources:
https://data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/185904/hospital-occupancy-rate-in-the-us-since-2001/
5:32 ‘3-5% death rate in overwhelmed healthcare systems, and potentially much higher’ claim is from source:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article
6:00 The Washington Post simulation is available here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
As well as Kevin Simler’s playable simulation (highly recommended!): https://meltingasphalt.com/outbreak/
8:09 Virus symptoms infographic: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#
8:24 ‘20%+ of infections from those who have no symptoms is based on this paper: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html
ONLINE RESOURCES FOR LEARNING (to keep you occupied):
www.brilliant.org: You can signup without putting in your credit card details to do the daily challenges. You can also try the first chapter of every one of their courses for free this way. At the moment they have a free trial that let’s you do everything on the site, but you will need a credit card for that one. Disclaimer, I’m going to start working for Brilliant soon, but they’ve not asked me to do this or anything- I just really like the site.
3blue1brown has a lot of fantastic videos and I’m sure you’ve seen them, but have you watched his whole linear algebra series? It’s a gem, and useful to know too!: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZHQObOWTQDPD3MizzM2xVFitgF8hE_ab
Socratica has beautiful in depth videos on all sorts of topics. I’m going to take this chance to follow their python course: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW6TXMZ5Pq6yL6_k5NZ2e0Q
Science4All is run by the extremely likable Frenchman Dr. Lê Nguyên Hoang. Why not learn some general relativity? I know you’ve always wanted to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SUs_o6EEVs&list=PL8ovs-QtxcNydaiz8LSPpo8G0fatCqdTQ
Leonard Susskind's Theoretical Minimum series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL701CD168D02FF56F
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Thank you Le from Science4All for prompting me to make this video by pointing out how urgent this message is, and helping so much with the script. Thank you also to Josh Silverman for his many invaluable comments on the script that made this a much better video. Thank you Dr Rohin from MedLifeCrisis for offering to check the script even though he’s working so hard because of COVID19. And thank you to Dr M.K. for vetting the medical accuracy here. There are no doubt mistakes left, but those are all my own.
