Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 4 hours ago
In this episode, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explains why he thinks the four-year Bitcoin cycle is breaking down. He predicts a smoother, longer cycle ahead, driven by ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and a more mature market structure.While Rizzo wrestles with nostalgia for the classic boom-bust cycle, Hougan makes the case that “this time really is different.” Enjoy!
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Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_
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Supply Shock Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock
Supply Shock Survey: bitcoinhistorynl.beehiiv.com/forms/979475d9-fb4b-4c13-99af-5037dd5718c6
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code SUPPLY100 for $100 OFF
blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at https://Ledger.com.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:03 Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
04:13 Institutional Adoption & Regulation
04:57 Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological?
08:37 Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact
09:48 Ledger Ad
10:38 Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact
17:00 Institutions Are Slow & Steady
18:58 Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity
22:20 Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact
23:38 Ledger Ad
24:25 Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle
25:45 Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages
33:28 Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand?
36:50 Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves
38:28 OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out
41:38 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #SupplyShock
In this episode, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explains why he thinks the four-year Bitcoin cycle is breaking down. He predicts a smoother, longer cycle ahead, driven by ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and a more mature market structure.While Rizzo wrestles with nostalgia for the classic boom-bust cycle, Hougan makes the case that “this time really is different.” Enjoy!
—
Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_
Follow Supply Shock: twitter.com/SupplyShockBW
Follow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_
Supply Shock Telegram: https://t.me/+SpmLg6P_QcgxNDcx
Supply Shock Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock
Supply Shock Survey: bitcoinhistorynl.beehiiv.com/forms/979475d9-fb4b-4c13-99af-5037dd5718c6
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code SUPPLY100 for $100 OFF
blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
—
Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:03 Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
04:13 Institutional Adoption & Regulation
04:57 Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological?
08:37 Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact
09:48 Ledger Ad
10:38 Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact
17:00 Institutions Are Slow & Steady
18:58 Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity
22:20 Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact
23:38 Ledger Ad
24:25 Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle
25:45 Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages
33:28 Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand?
36:50 Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves
38:28 OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out
41:38 Final Thoughts
—
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #SupplyShock
