Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this episode, Nik welcomes CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten to discuss why he believes bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end. James walks through ETF flows that have held firm despite months of outflows, the rotation of capital out of AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA, and where that money could head next. The conversation turns to Michael Saylor's decision to sell bitcoin near the lows, the role hedge funds played in pressuring Strategy through STRC, and on-chain data showing roughly 330,000 bitcoin accumulated between the high fifties and low sixties since February. James and Nik also examine this cycle's unusually shallow 54% drawdown and the case for a bottom ahead of October.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Club Orange. One of the best parts of bitcoin is the people, and some of the strongest friendships and opportunities come from meeting other bitcoiners. Club Orange makes that easy. Whether you're at home or traveling for a conference, you can find local bitcoiners, discover the next meetup, and locate merchants that accept bitcoin, all in one app. Every city has an incredible bitcoin community; you just need a way to find it. Learn more at cluborange.org/thebitcoinlayer, or download Club Orange on the App Store or Google Play. When you join, send Nik a DM.
Timestamps:
0:00 is bitcoin's bear market shifting
1:08 ETF flows and why the worst may be over
2:12 NVIDIA, semis, and the AI rotation
4:48 SpaceX, SK Hynix, and IPO money finding bitcoin
6:57 debt offerings, NASDAQ 100 top signals, and the SpaceX unlock story
8:58 AI founders and early investors rotating into bitcoin
10:25 realized price, true market mean, and deep value
14:19 why the old on-chain metrics may be broken
15:57 a 54% drawdown and dampened volatility
18:19 coins in profit versus loss and exhausted selling
21:59 Michael Saylor, STRC, and where he went wrong
24:03 Saylor selling bitcoin near the lows
27:04 how hedge funds forced the sale
29:35 the high-fifties buy range and monthly low timing
31:48 bitcoin's trading range and the 330,000 coin bid
33:45 resistance in the 80s and the road higher
35:03 front-running the October bottom, and the Trump angle
37:23 where to follow James
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: research.thebitcoinlayer.com
In this episode, Nik welcomes CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten to discuss why he believes bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end. James walks through ETF flows that have held firm despite months of outflows, the rotation of capital out of AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA, and where that money could head next. The conversation turns to Michael Saylor's decision to sell bitcoin near the lows, the role hedge funds played in pressuring Strategy through STRC, and on-chain data showing roughly 330,000 bitcoin accumulated between the high fifties and low sixties since February. James and Nik also examine this cycle's unusually shallow 54% drawdown and the case for a bottom ahead of October.
Get Nik's weekly bitcoin and macro research: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Club Orange. One of the best parts of bitcoin is the people, and some of the strongest friendships and opportunities come from meeting other bitcoiners. Club Orange makes that easy. Whether you're at home or traveling for a conference, you can find local bitcoiners, discover the next meetup, and locate merchants that accept bitcoin, all in one app. Every city has an incredible bitcoin community; you just need a way to find it. Learn more at cluborange.org/thebitcoinlayer, or download Club Orange on the App Store or Google Play. When you join, send Nik a DM.
Timestamps:
0:00 is bitcoin's bear market shifting
1:08 ETF flows and why the worst may be over
2:12 NVIDIA, semis, and the AI rotation
4:48 SpaceX, SK Hynix, and IPO money finding bitcoin
6:57 debt offerings, NASDAQ 100 top signals, and the SpaceX unlock story
8:58 AI founders and early investors rotating into bitcoin
10:25 realized price, true market mean, and deep value
14:19 why the old on-chain metrics may be broken
15:57 a 54% drawdown and dampened volatility
18:19 coins in profit versus loss and exhausted selling
21:59 Michael Saylor, STRC, and where he went wrong
24:03 Saylor selling bitcoin near the lows
27:04 how hedge funds forced the sale
29:35 the high-fifties buy range and monthly low timing
31:48 bitcoin's trading range and the 330,000 coin bid
33:45 resistance in the 80s and the road higher
35:03 front-running the October bottom, and the Trump angle
37:23 where to follow James
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
