Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Retiring RCP 8.5 is being used by denialist and right‑wing media to claim we’ve dodged the worst climate futures and that past climate warnings were overblown. In this episode, Herb Simmens talks with Dr. Peter Carter and Paul Beckwith about why that narrative is dangerously misleading and what today’s record temperatures and ongoing fossil fuel dependence really tell us.
This video was recorded on June 3rd, 2026, and published on June 7th, 2026, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
Peter explains what Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are, why RCP 8.5 was originally a worst‑case scenario rather than “business as usual,” and how new “emissions‑based” scenarios embed optimistic assumptions about coal decline, renewables and future emissions. Paul connects this to real‑world observations—accelerating warming, ocean heat and feedbacks—arguing that in terms of realised warming and impacts we are still tracking near the high‑end of model projections.
Together they show how downgrading high‑end scenarios, miscommunicating “business as usual,” and politically undermining climate data collection create a false sense of security just as impacts intensify. From lethal heat in India to escalating wildfire losses, they argue that the real issue is not whether a label like RCP 8.5 is retired, but whether we confront the accelerating crisis in the next 10–20 years with honesty and urgency.
Links:
- Support Our Mission
climateemergencyforum.org/donate.html
- Representative Concentrated Pathway
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway
- CMIP Phase 7
wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phases/cmip7
- CMIP Brief Definition
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/
- Explainer: The high-emissions 'RCP8.5' global warming scenario
carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario
- Global coal demand has reached a plateau and may well decline slightly by 2030
iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-has-reached-a-plateau-and-may-well-decline-slightly-by-2030
- Global Warming in the Pipeline and Earth's Energy Imbalance (CEF Video)
youtu.be/KnDb_bznZvE?si=HoSHfSykX6WRFFhy
- Radiative forcing
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing
- The representative concentration pathways: An overview
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9505/
- Explainer: Scenarios for CMIP7
wcrp-cmip.org/explainer-scenarios-for-cmip7
- Super El Niño Ahead? (CEF Video)
youtu.be/vo2eSm_PF1w
- Too Hot to Live: The Human Cost of Extreme Heat (CEF Video)
youtu.be/eObJA2bnF20
- Scientists warn Trump plan to axe US ocean monitoring system will leave world 'flying blind'
theguardian.com/environment/2026/jun/05/trump-plan-ocean-monitoring-system-concern-scientists
- One Day of Extreme Heat Causes 3,400 Excess Deaths Across India, Study Estimates
ndtv.com/health/one-day-of-extreme-heat-causes-3-400-excess-deaths-across-india-study-estimates-11564441
- Judge halts Trump effort to target Colorado climate lab
thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5905703-colorado-climate-lab-ncar
- Lawsuit: Dismantling NCAR is part of President Trump’s ‘campaign of retribution’ against Colorado
kunc.org/politics/2026-03-17/lawsuit-dismantling-ncar-is-part-of-president-trumps-campaign-of-retribution-against-colorado
- 2025 Sets Record for Global Wildfire Losses Despite Smaller Burn Area
programbusiness.com/news/2025-sets-record-for-global-wildfire-losses-despite-smaller-burn-area/#:~:text=Researchers%20estimated%20that%20worldwide%20insured,Korea%2C%20and%20parts%20of%20Europe.
- Carbon Brief
carbonbrief.org
- CEF Website Podcast page
climateemergencyforum.org/podcasts.html
Regular Panelists:
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University
Herb Simmens - Author, Co-founder of the Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC), Climate Emergency Board Member and former college instructor.
Video Production:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader
Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP team lead for FacingFuture.Earth and the Climate Emergency Forum; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader
Our Website:
climateemergencyforum.org
Support Our Work:
climateemergencyforum.org/donate.html
Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander
- Source: crowander.com
Image and Video: climateemergencyforum.org/assets/attributions/2026/2026-06-07-Are-We-Still-on-RCP-8.5.html
Retiring RCP 8.5 is being used by denialist and right‑wing media to claim we’ve dodged the worst climate futures and that past climate warnings were overblown. In this episode, Herb Simmens talks with Dr. Peter Carter and Paul Beckwith about why that narrative is dangerously misleading and what today’s record temperatures and ongoing fossil fuel dependence really tell us.
This video was recorded on June 3rd, 2026, and published on June 7th, 2026, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
Peter explains what Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are, why RCP 8.5 was originally a worst‑case scenario rather than “business as usual,” and how new “emissions‑based” scenarios embed optimistic assumptions about coal decline, renewables and future emissions. Paul connects this to real‑world observations—accelerating warming, ocean heat and feedbacks—arguing that in terms of realised warming and impacts we are still tracking near the high‑end of model projections.
Together they show how downgrading high‑end scenarios, miscommunicating “business as usual,” and politically undermining climate data collection create a false sense of security just as impacts intensify. From lethal heat in India to escalating wildfire losses, they argue that the real issue is not whether a label like RCP 8.5 is retired, but whether we confront the accelerating crisis in the next 10–20 years with honesty and urgency.
Links:
- Support Our Mission
climateemergencyforum.org/donate.html
- Representative Concentrated Pathway
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway
- CMIP Phase 7
wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phases/cmip7
- CMIP Brief Definition
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/
- Explainer: The high-emissions 'RCP8.5' global warming scenario
carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario
- Global coal demand has reached a plateau and may well decline slightly by 2030
iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-has-reached-a-plateau-and-may-well-decline-slightly-by-2030
- Global Warming in the Pipeline and Earth's Energy Imbalance (CEF Video)
youtu.be/KnDb_bznZvE?si=HoSHfSykX6WRFFhy
- Radiative forcing
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing
- The representative concentration pathways: An overview
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9505/
- Explainer: Scenarios for CMIP7
wcrp-cmip.org/explainer-scenarios-for-cmip7
- Super El Niño Ahead? (CEF Video)
youtu.be/vo2eSm_PF1w
- Too Hot to Live: The Human Cost of Extreme Heat (CEF Video)
youtu.be/eObJA2bnF20
- Scientists warn Trump plan to axe US ocean monitoring system will leave world 'flying blind'
theguardian.com/environment/2026/jun/05/trump-plan-ocean-monitoring-system-concern-scientists
- One Day of Extreme Heat Causes 3,400 Excess Deaths Across India, Study Estimates
ndtv.com/health/one-day-of-extreme-heat-causes-3-400-excess-deaths-across-india-study-estimates-11564441
- Judge halts Trump effort to target Colorado climate lab
thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5905703-colorado-climate-lab-ncar
- Lawsuit: Dismantling NCAR is part of President Trump’s ‘campaign of retribution’ against Colorado
kunc.org/politics/2026-03-17/lawsuit-dismantling-ncar-is-part-of-president-trumps-campaign-of-retribution-against-colorado
- 2025 Sets Record for Global Wildfire Losses Despite Smaller Burn Area
programbusiness.com/news/2025-sets-record-for-global-wildfire-losses-despite-smaller-burn-area/#:~:text=Researchers%20estimated%20that%20worldwide%20insured,Korea%2C%20and%20parts%20of%20Europe.
- Carbon Brief
carbonbrief.org
- CEF Website Podcast page
climateemergencyforum.org/podcasts.html
Regular Panelists:
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University
Herb Simmens - Author, Co-founder of the Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC), Climate Emergency Board Member and former college instructor.
Video Production:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader
Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP team lead for FacingFuture.Earth and the Climate Emergency Forum; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader
Our Website:
climateemergencyforum.org
Support Our Work:
climateemergencyforum.org/donate.html
Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander
- Source: crowander.com
Image and Video: climateemergencyforum.org/assets/attributions/2026/2026-06-07-Are-We-Still-on-RCP-8.5.html
