Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
Are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates heading towards conflict? Once regarded as the closest of Gulf allies, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi now find themselves locked in an increasingly intense rivalry that some predict could lead to war. So, how has a relationship built on shared security interests, conservative monarchic rule, and cooperation within the Gulf Cooperation Council deteriorated into mistrust, competition, and proxy confrontation? Central to this breakdown is the civil war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed opposing local actors and pursued sharply different strategic goals. The video also examines how deeper structural changes — including economic competition, diverging leadership styles, and contrasting regional ambitions — have steadily reshaped the balance between two of the Middle East’s most powerful states.
Looking beyond Yemen, the analysis places the Saudi–UAE rivalry in a broader regional context, highlighting tensions in Sudan, Syria, and the Horn of Africa. While speculation about a direct Saudi–UAE war has grown, the video explains why full-scale conflict remains unlikely, given the enormous economic, political, and regional risks involved. Instead, it argues that the most probable future is one of prolonged strategic rivalry, punctuated by periodic crises and uneasy coexistence. Ultimately, the video asks whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can manage their competition without miscalculation — or whether their cold war could one day tip into something far more dangerous.
*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:53 Strategic Rivalries in International Relations
02:00 Saudi Arabia and the UAE: Location and Population
02:59 The Emergence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE
04:26 Relations Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE
05:57 Yemen and the Collapse of Saudi-UAE Relations
08:40 The 2025 Crisis Between the UAE and Saudi Arabia
10:33 Are the UAE and Saudi Arabia Heading for War?
12:33 The Difficult Next Steps for Saudi Arabia and the UAE
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*MY LATEST BOOK!*
Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know
Oxford University Press global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049
Amazon amzn.to/2MPY3W2
Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel at no additional cost to you.
#SaudiArabia #UAE #UnitedArabEmirates #Yemen
Are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates heading towards conflict? Once regarded as the closest of Gulf allies, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi now find themselves locked in an increasingly intense rivalry that some predict could lead to war. So, how has a relationship built on shared security interests, conservative monarchic rule, and cooperation within the Gulf Cooperation Council deteriorated into mistrust, competition, and proxy confrontation? Central to this breakdown is the civil war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed opposing local actors and pursued sharply different strategic goals. The video also examines how deeper structural changes — including economic competition, diverging leadership styles, and contrasting regional ambitions — have steadily reshaped the balance between two of the Middle East’s most powerful states.
Looking beyond Yemen, the analysis places the Saudi–UAE rivalry in a broader regional context, highlighting tensions in Sudan, Syria, and the Horn of Africa. While speculation about a direct Saudi–UAE war has grown, the video explains why full-scale conflict remains unlikely, given the enormous economic, political, and regional risks involved. Instead, it argues that the most probable future is one of prolonged strategic rivalry, punctuated by periodic crises and uneasy coexistence. Ultimately, the video asks whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can manage their competition without miscalculation — or whether their cold war could one day tip into something far more dangerous.
*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:53 Strategic Rivalries in International Relations
02:00 Saudi Arabia and the UAE: Location and Population
02:59 The Emergence of Saudi Arabia and the UAE
04:26 Relations Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE
05:57 Yemen and the Collapse of Saudi-UAE Relations
08:40 The 2025 Crisis Between the UAE and Saudi Arabia
10:33 Are the UAE and Saudi Arabia Heading for War?
12:33 The Difficult Next Steps for Saudi Arabia and the UAE
*SUPPORT INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS*
If you enjoy the channel and would like to support independent analysis of international relations, conflict, and security, there are several ways you can help:
SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE
youtube.com/channel/UCEszqJb1FjYisBevHBIof3g
youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay?sub_confirmation=1
JOIN THE COMMUNITY AND BECOME A CHANNEL MEMBER
YouTube: youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join
Patreon: patreon.com/JamesKerLindsay
*MY LATEST BOOK!*
Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know
Oxford University Press global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049
Amazon amzn.to/2MPY3W2
Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel at no additional cost to you.
#SaudiArabia #UAE #UnitedArabEmirates #Yemen
