Ahead of the count: Probabilistic predictions of IRV elections. JMM 2025 @ChrisStaecker
Ahead of the count: Probabilistic predictions of IRV elections. JMM 2025  @ChrisStaecker
Uploaded January 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
A talk given at the AMS Special Session on the Mathematics of Decisions, Elections, and Games at the Joint Math Meetings, January 10, 2025, Seattle. A talk given for other researchers, but easy to follow with minimal background.

I intended to record this talk while I gave it, but something went wrong so I had to re-enact it in my hotel room afterwards. That's why I sound like I'm talking to myself.

For an expanded version of this talk with some more background on the IRV ("ranked choice voting") system, see here: youtu.be/UoyxtJcGlTc?si=ya5d5l_aGVWSTgJY

The paper is here: arxiv.org/html/2405.09009v1

My video about the Giessel recount: youtu.be/TfwQkFam_ww?si=NBddGqZzimd2c44W
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Ahead of the count: Probabilistic predictions of IRV elections. JMM 2025

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