Uploaded December 2016 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
NOTE: My description of parsing up-arrow notation is incorrect; please see my correction here! youtube.com/watch?v=xN-MpWNsXw0
Graham's number is...really really big. But our brains start throwing errors at much smaller quantities.
-Links for the Curious-
Numberphile's fantastic video of Ron Graham explaining Graham's number - youtube.com/watch?v=HX8bihEe3nA
“Two Systems of Non-Symbolic Numerical Cognition” by D. Hyde, a review of research on the two psychological systems for cognitive representation of number - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3228256
A summary of some landmark studies regarding the cognitive representation of number - https://software.rc.fas.harvard.edu/lds/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/feigenson2004.pdf
A great Wikipedia summary of some of the creatures which have demonstrated some capacity for number sense - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_sense_in_animals
A study showing the gradual “linearization” of the approximate number system’s logarithmic error allowance during childhood - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12741747
An analysis of possible evolutionary reasons the approximate number system is mapped logarithmically - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26755188
The 2014 paper which improved on Graham's upper limit to his Ramsey theorem question - sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195669814000936
NOTE: My description of parsing up-arrow notation is incorrect; please see my correction here! youtube.com/watch?v=xN-MpWNsXw0
Graham's number is...really really big. But our brains start throwing errors at much smaller quantities.
-Links for the Curious-
Numberphile's fantastic video of Ron Graham explaining Graham's number - youtube.com/watch?v=HX8bihEe3nA
“Two Systems of Non-Symbolic Numerical Cognition” by D. Hyde, a review of research on the two psychological systems for cognitive representation of number - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3228256
A summary of some landmark studies regarding the cognitive representation of number - https://software.rc.fas.harvard.edu/lds/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/feigenson2004.pdf
A great Wikipedia summary of some of the creatures which have demonstrated some capacity for number sense - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_sense_in_animals
A study showing the gradual “linearization” of the approximate number system’s logarithmic error allowance during childhood - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12741747
An analysis of possible evolutionary reasons the approximate number system is mapped logarithmically - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26755188
The 2014 paper which improved on Graham's upper limit to his Ramsey theorem question - sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195669814000936









![189. The Reference Class Problem | THUNK
2 out of 10 people who read this will watch this episode. 1 in 20 subscribers will watch it. ...I wonder how many subscribers who read it will watch?
- Links for the Curious -
The reference class problem is your problem too (Hajek, 2007) - http://joelvelasco.net/teaching/3865/hajek%20-the%20reference%20class%20problem.pdf
The Logic of Chance by John Venn - http://www.gutenberg.org/files/57359/57359-h/57359-h.htm
Is it a Crime to Belong to a Reference Class? (Colyvan et al, 2001) - http://colyvan.com/papers/shonubi.pdf
United States v. Shonubi [Shonubi III] United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, 1995 895 F.Supp 460 I - https://sociologicalgobbledygook.com/shonubi.pdf
All models are wrong… (Wit et al, 2012) - https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/files/13270992/2012StatistNeerlWit.pdf
The reference class problem and its implications for project management - https://eight2late.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/the-reference-class-problem-and-its-implications-for-project-management/
Four approaches to the reference class problem (Wallman & Williamson, 2015) - https://blogs.kent.ac.uk/jonw/files/2015/01/RCP.pdf
Symmetry is the Very Guide to Life (Hajek, 2007) - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.318.2402&rep=rep1&type=pdf 189. The Reference Class Problem | THUNK](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/vFS66BK9fRQ/mqdefault.jpg)
