The Fed Is Walking A Very Thin Tightrope Over A Cliff The Julia La Roche Show 2024-10-22 | The Fed Is Walking A Very Thin Tightrope Over A Cliff
David Rosenberg On The Current Economic Illusion And The Stock Market Bubble The Julia La Roche Show 2024-10-17 | In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.In this episode, Rosenberg challenged the prevailing optimism about the U.S. economy, arguing that the apparent strength in GDP numbers is largely due to unsustainable government spending. He highlighted discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, suggesting that the economy may be weaker than it appears. Rosenberg expressed concern about the stock market's high valuations, drawing parallels to previous market bubbles. He warned of potential risks, including a possible recession in 2025, and discussed the dangers of excessive exposure to equities, particularly among older investors. Rosenberg advocated for a more defensive investment strategy, recommending an increased allocation to bonds and gold, while maintaining a cautious approach to equities. Throughout the conversation, he emphasized the importance of understanding historical patterns and the risks of "new era" thinking in financial markets.Links: rosenbergresearch.comhttps://x.com/EconguyRosieTimestamps: 00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation 01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence 02:57 Analysis of the Fed's Beige Book and economic indicators 05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers 08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election 10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market 13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy 15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown 17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy 19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election 21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons 25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs 27:43 Lags in economic policy effects 31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues 35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth 39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations 42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation 46:40 Concerns about passive index investing 50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy 54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation 57:22 Approach to investing in bonds 01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds 01:02:27 Parting thoughts
A Recession Is Still On The Way — What The Money Supply Tells Us About The Economy | Steve Hanke The Julia La Roche Show 2024-10-15 | Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 202 for a conversation on the state of the economy, the money supply, inflation, and the upcoming election. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeCapital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke02:06 Discussion on China's economy and inflation 04:29 U.S. economy and money supply contraction 07:29 European economic situation 10:41 Focus on money supply vs interest rates 15:59 Discussion on job report revisions and data reliability 21:17 Inflation forecast and bond yields 25:57 Fed's record on predicting economic trends 27:29 Book recommendations on economic theory 31:57 Analysis of upcoming election (polls vs prediction markets) 38:17 Economic policies of candidates 42:40 Industrial policy and protectionism 45:15 Government spending as percentage of GDP 48:40 Parting thoughts and new book announcements 50:22 Closing remarks
How Big Government Is Slowing Our Economy And Hurting Private Sector Growth | Eric Basmajian The Julia La Roche Show 2024-10-10 | Eric Basmajian, founder and CEO of EPB Research @EPBResearch joins Julia on episode 201 to discuss the economy, housing market dynamics, outlook on unemployment trends, and the long-term economic factors, including the effects of increasing government size on private sector growth. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Links:YouTube: youtube.com/@UCqD1A4HwU-61yjmIk2yosNw Website: epbresearch.comTwitter/X: https://x.com/EPBResearchSubstack: epbresearch.substack.comTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Eric Basmajian 01:03 Macro view + Eric's four economies framework 03:17 Explanation of leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging economies07:29 Current state of the economy and growth rates 09:32 How to discern signal from noise in economic data 13:15 Discussion on economic revisions and their significance 16:23 Addressing common misconceptions about the economy 20:55 Inflation trends and relationship to the business cycle 23:03 Analysis of Fed's September rate cut decision 25:22 Impact of backlogs on economic activity post-COVID 30:48 Overview of the residential housing cycle 33:55 Current housing market supply and demand dynamics 37:08 Forecast for unemployment rate trends 43:53 Long-term economic outlook factors (debt, demographics, government size) 48:16 Declining growth rates in real private sector income 50:51 Impact of increasing government size on economic growth 54:15 Optimal government size for economic growth 57:37 Connection between rising home prices and demographic changes
The Fed Jumped The Shark And Made A Terrible Mistake | Chris Whalen The Julia La Roche Show 2024-10-08 | Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns for episode 200 to discuss the economy, the Fed's mistake by cutting rates, upcoming bank earnings, the 2024 election, and more. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: rcwhalen.com The Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com Stanley Middleman book: amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC 00:00 Introduction and welcome Chris Whalen01:10 Macro view and Federal Reserve actions 02:56 Fed's rate cut mistake and implications 05:14 Fed's credibility and narrative challenges 07:12 Global economic outlook and banking sector issues 09:13 Inflation and its impact on different economic segments 12:09 Analysis of proposed first-time homebuyer policy 15:01 Discussion on oil markets and OPEC 16:48 US 10-year yields and mortgage rates 19:46 Outlook for upcoming bank earnings 22:19 Basel Accord and banking regulation issues 26:25 Market risks and bank solvency concerns 28:16 Implications of rising 10-year Treasury yields 30:36 2024 US election outlook and key issues 33:00 Closing thoughts and upcoming book releases
You Werent Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know | Josh Brown The Julia La Roche Show 2024-10-01 | Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $5 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 199. Josh is a frequent commentator on CNBC's "Halftime Report," and the author of four books including his newest, "You Weren't Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know." ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.Book: amazon.com/You-Werent-Supposed-See-That/dp/180409059XTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Josh Brown02:05 The current state of the economy and markets 06:18 Abundance mindset vs scarcity mindset in investing 10:42 Josh's journey from blogging to meeting Barry Ritholtz 15:08 Overcoming imposter syndrome and taking risks 18:25 Josh's experience in boiler rooms and being honest about his past21:30 Discussing Josh's personal story and education 25:58 "You Weren't Supposed to See That" 29:37 Current market trends and investment philosophy 34:20 The role of financial advisors during market volatility 38:45 Building a media empire in finance 43:12 The importance of communication in wealth management 47:30 Reflecting on career growth and luck in the industry 50:15 The asymmetry of putting yourself out there and final thoughts
The Economic Singularity: Weve Got 6 Years To Make As Much Money As We Possibly Can | Raoul Pal The Julia La Roche Show 2024-09-26 | Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/raoulgmiGMI: globalmacroinvestor.comReal Vision: realvision.comTimestamps: 00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary 01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained 05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources 07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement 11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment 15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead 17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook 25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view 34:45 The concept of Economic Singularity explained 38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth 42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years 43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset 45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook 48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"
The Real Reason The Feds Rate Cut Was A Mistake | Bill Fleckenstein The Julia La Roche Show 2024-09-24 | Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.Links: Book: amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: twitter.com/fleckcap Website: fleckensteincapital.com00:12 Welcome and introduction 00:53 Macro view and Fed policy 06:48 Understanding inflation and central bank policies 11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability 18:01 Bubbles and market psychology 21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook 26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis 31:53 Implications of the upcoming election 34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives 35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind 37:14 US dollar outlook 39:41 Thesis development in investing 42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook 44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses 46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work#macro #gold #investing
The Whole System is One Big Carry Trade | Brent Johnson The Julia La Roche Show 2024-09-17 | Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, returns for episode 196.✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.In this episode, Brent Johnson discusses the current macro landscape, focusing on Fed policy, global markets, and his Dollar Milkshake Theory. He explores gold's role as a signal of economic stress, the dynamics of carry trades, and potential market volatility ahead. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFundYouTube: youtube.com/@MilkshakesPodMacro Alchemist: macroalchemist.com0:00 Welcome Brent Johnson1:05 Current macro picture and Fed policy 4:40 Challenges of engineering a soft landing 8:54 What is gold signaling? 14:22 Global demand for gold 17:29 Dollar Milkshake Theory explained 24:11 Geopolitical implications of the dollar system 30:22 Market outlook 37:42 Are markets in a bubble? 41:51 Gold price outlook 45:35 2024 election impact on markets 49:24 Yen carry trade and broader carry trade risks 56:17 The global system as one big carry trade 59:03 Closing thoughts and where to find Brent's work
The Fed Is Afraid To Really Fight Inflation | Chris Whalen The Julia La Roche Show 2024-09-10 | Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy.✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: rcwhalen.com The Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com Stanley Middleman book: amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC Chapters00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not? 02:24 Labor market03:44 Home prices 07:53 Recession 10:40 Rate policy 12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation 14:00 Liquidity explained 17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out21:30 Intervention 23:05 Fed 24:50 Deficit 28:40 Election 32:36 Parting thoughts
The US Economy Has Been In A Long Period Of Decline | Dr. Art Laffer The Julia La Roche Show 2024-09-03 | Dr. Art Laffer, "the father of supply-side economics" and one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 194. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Dr. Art Laffer 1:06 Big picture macro view, a long period of economic senescence5:13 Transfer theorem and the decline in growth rates 7:58 Upcoming election from an economics lens 11:30 Operation Warp Speed and Right To Try 15:25 A second-term Trump could unleash a Renaissance in America's economy 19:00 Five pillars of prosperity 24:17 Tariffs 28:30 Trade and geopolitics 33:30 Trade is not a political weapon42:50 Government spending 50:00 RFK Jr. endorsing Trump is one of the most important events53:55 A Harris presidency 57:20 Parting thoughts
The Bulls Are No Longer In Control — What Markets Are Signaling | Tom McClellan The Julia La Roche Show 2024-08-29 | Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, and a prominent figure in the field of stock market analysis and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 193 to share his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts.✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: public.com/julia ✨Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Tom1:00 Where we are today in the markets2:00 McClellan Oscillator showing the bulls are no longer in control6:30 Presidential Cycle Pattern10:50 Liquidity12:40 Gold20:29 Japanese Yen 22:00 Mexican Peso23:25 Gold25:25 Dollar31:40 McClellan Oscillator explained, signaling an overbought and bearish condition in the markets 33:16 Are recession signals flashing in the market? 36:00 Demographics 38:27 Market timing 40:41 Federal Reserve is 13 months overdue for cutting 43:00 Presidential Cycle 46:29 Parting thoughts Links: mcoscillator.com twitter.com/McClellanOsc#stockmarket #gold #technicalanalysis
What The Huge Downward Revision In The Jobs Data Means For The Economy | Dr. Lacy Hunt The Julia La Roche Show 2024-08-27 | Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 192 for a wide-ranging discussion on the deteriorating economy. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: public.com/julia ✨In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics." Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO). This is the 55th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.✨ Lock in your 6.9% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt1:16 Macro picture 3:37 Downward revision in non-farm payrolls is significant 5:45 The 818,000 error is actually 915,000, according to Dr. Hunt's model9:00 The economy is deteriorating 15:24 Net national saving shows we have a problem21:40 The seriousness of negative net national savings 25:00 Decline in the standard of living34:50 Possible solutions, shared sacrifice 40:00 Fiscal dominance is a very real possibility 45:40 Fed is behind the curve 47:37 Where are we in the economic lifecycle 49:44 The global economy
Ted Oakley On Market Selloffs: If You Dont Have Any Liquidity, Its Not An Opportunity For You The Julia La Roche Show 2024-08-15 | Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 191 to discuss the economy and markets.With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.oxbowadvisors.com00:00 Introduction and welcome Ted Oakley 1:31 Macro picture, a slow disintegration 3:06 Federal Reserve 5:30 State of the Middle Class7:00 A September rate cut? 08:32 Conversations with clients about the economy11:31 The average person's exposure to stocks is too high, building balanced portfolios15:30 Similarities/differences between 2000 and today17:40 The evolution of the market and rise of passive investing19:30 Cash position 21:20 10-Year Treasury23:48 Opportunities — cutting back on tech stocks, investing in pharmaceuticals25:20 Gold27:20 When to sell your winners31:25 Staying rich with a balanced portfolio 33:50 Second, third generation wealth 39:40 Best and worst years personally 45:00 Too many overexposed to stocks
Rick Rule On The Warning Signs In The Economy, And Insuring Against Collective Stupidity The Julia La Roche Show 2024-08-08 | Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 189, featuring a discussion on the macro environment, warning signs, and investment opportunities. Link to Rick's private placements bootcamp: events.ringcentral.com/events/rick-rule-s-virtual-private-placement-bootcamp?utm_source=aff&utm_campaign=1400:00 Introduction and welcome back Rick Rule01:30 Macro picture, wake-up call and lessons from the Japanese carry trade unwind3:53 Be prepared for these contingencies 05:50 Two risks, one opportunity 09:50 Entitlements 12:15 Opportunity in gold 15:20 Taxes and inflation 19:39 The Federal Reserve and interest rates23:19 Manipulation of interest rates30:10 Bond market35:05 Upcoming election 40:58 Parting thoughts
Chris Whalen On The Difficult Economic Environment Ahead The Julia La Roche Show 2024-08-06 | Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 188 to discuss the economy.This episode was recorded on Friday, Aug. 2. Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: rcwhalen.com The Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com Stanley Middleman book: amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome back Chris Whalen01:00 Big picture view and the troublesome rate of change2:30 10-year yield 04:15 An inflection point06:15 Risks in corporate credit and commercial real estate09:15 A difficult economic environment ahead 12:50 Upcoming election 15:00 Why the Fed won't cut before the election16:40 Opportunities 18:40 Fannie and Freddie23:08 Velocity of the change 24:00 Consumers 26:16 Opportunities for Lenders28:00 Inflation problem
A Triumvirate Of Bubbles Is Creating A Dangerous Situation For The Economy | Michael Pento The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-30 | Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 187 to discuss a dangerous triumvirate of bubbles in the economy: a real estate bubble, an equity bubble, and a credit bubble. These bubbles have been fueled by 20 years of a negative real Fed funds rate. Pento predicts that these bubbles will burst. He believes that the current situation is very dangerous and could result in a stagflationary environment. Michael also discusses inflation and the erosion of the middle class and the negative implications for the economy. Links: pentoport.com twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Welcome back Michael Pento 1:11 Macro view, most salient chart 1:55 A triumvirate of dangerous bubbles4:09 Bubbles bursting 7:14 The market has already priced in rate cuts9:39 Most dangerous time in the markets? 11:10 Where would we be if the free market could exist? 13:19 Bifurcation of the economy19:44 America is an insolvent nation 21:30 Headed for stagflation23:12 Election 24:29 Investing 27:50 Gold 28:30 Inflation 30:00 Erosion of the middle class 35:58 What difference would a Fed cut even make? 34:55 US dollar 41:20 Gold is not an investment 43:30 Any hope?
David Woo, Who Nailed 2016 And 2020 Elections, Explains Why The Market Has The Trump Trades Wrong The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-23 | Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 186 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics, including the attempted assassination on former President Trump and why the market has the so-called Trump trades all wrong. This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19.Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links: Youtube: youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: davidwoounbound.com Twitter/X: twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo 01:25 Big picture macro view 03:00 Geopolitical update 04:10 Trump trades06:53 Election is not over yet08:01 Assassination attempt and the risk of another attempt11:15 JD Vance 15:20 Finding a replacement to Biden 18:45 2025 will have nothing to do with 201722:44 Challenges in financing tax cuts, tariffs, and potential for a global trade war25:50 Collecting taxes on big tech companies doing business outside the US would be bearish for stocks 28:00 Trump will face a massive budget deficit and why he's not that bullish for bitcoin 28:50 Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0 economy 30:30 If Trump wins, he'll inherit a huge mess from Biden 35:41 Immigration40:31 The ultimate Trump trades are defensive trades44:30 Betting on a recession50:37 Generative AI is a bubble that will trigger a recession56:55 Parting thoughts
Jim Rickards: Were Probably Already In A Civil War The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-20 | Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 185 to discuss the macro environment and political turmoil in the U.S., including the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This episode was recorded on July 18. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.comtwitter.com/JamesGRickards00:00 Introduction and Overview 05:46 The current political landscape and global events16:49 Trump's path to victory22:27 Internal dynamics within the Democratic Party26:26 Discussions of a virtual roll call for Biden's nomination31:03 Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the nominee35:11 The landmine of Congress certification in 202550:47 The path towards a recession56:34 The stock market bubble and concentration risk59:33 AI
Inflation Will Fall And The U.S. Will Enter A Recession | Steve Hanke The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-18 | Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. Three years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. And he expects inflation will fall to his expected range of 2.5-3% by the end of the year. He also expects that we'll enter a recession later this year or early next year.Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke01:05 Big picture, macro view, Quantity Theory of Money06:20 Inflation headed to 2.5-3% zone by year-end, sees recession ahead07:40 Grading the Federal Reserve's policies, they get an 'F'12:40 How the money supply works 16:21 Inflation below 2%? 17:30 Debt and deficit 21:52 Need for a Constitutional amendment to control government spending23:48 End game if we don't address the debt situation 24:44 A fiscal illusion
Attempted Assassination of Trump And The Fourth Turning | Neil Howe The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-15 | Neil Howe, an author, historian, demographer, economist, and consultant best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 183 to discuss the Fourth Turning. Julia and Neil recorded this episode on Friday, July 12. After the attempted assassination of former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, Neil and Julia spoke again for about 20 minutes on Sunday afternoon, which airs at the beginning. Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. Links: Twitter/x: twitter.com/HoweGeneration The Fourth Turning Is Here: amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Neil Howe1:09 Neil Howe reaction to assassination attempt on former President Trump4:30 We’re in an era where people are more tolerant of violence 6:20 How would we react? 9:31 Breakdown of trust — where are people finding trust? 11:11 A path forward? 16:20 Parting thoughts — be hopeful about the future and long-term destination19:10 Neil Howe July 12 interview intro 20:30 Generational theory, the four turnings 25:50 Crises that shape generations 27:55 Great Awakenings 33:40 Where are we in the Fourth Turning? The election? Tribalization of America 36:20 “I worry about November 5th…” 44:40 The Four Turnings 48:30 Crisis periods53:00 Trust54:55 This partisanship is driven by fear, not hope56:20 The 7th great political realignment 59:00 The climax 1:00:46 Not a prepper1:03:30 The economy + markets#trump #fourthturning #politics
Can AI Fix Our Debt Problem? | Tyler Cowen The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-11 | Economist and author Tyler Cowen, the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins Julia La Roche on episode 182. Links: Marginal Revolution: marginalrevolution.comTwitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen00:00 Introduction and welcome Tyler Cowen01:11 Big picture — the scary and the wonderful 03:37 Optimist04:40 The Great Stagnation and AI 06:18 The impact of AI on investing08:14 Human connections will matter more 10:45 Our debt will probably prove manageable because of AI11:22 How AI will change how we live13:50 Education 16:39 AI and jobs18:17 Debt 21:17 U.S. psychology 23:37 Conflicting narratives of the economy24:40 Immigration26:25 Talent 29:13 Food and capitalism 32:20 Approach to life 33:20 Great Financial Crisis — why real estate wasn’t a bubble 36:20 Investing: Be long38:36 Travel and humanity 42:00 Views43:40 Election year 45:50 Parting thoughts
Why The Fed Is Worried About A Recession Next Year | Chris Whalen The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-09 | Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 181 to discuss the economy, why he thinks the Federal Reserve is worried about a recession next year, and his take on the upcoming election. Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: rcwhalen.com The Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com Stanley Middleman book: amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 01:00 Macro view 03:00 Stress tests05:50 The Consumer 07:30 Silent crisis in commercial 11:24 Election 14:45 Trump win good for the economy 17:30 Inflation 21:20 Rate policy 25:30 Trump 29:00 Parting thoughts #economy #recession #investing
Never Enough — From Barista To Billionaire | Andrew Wilkinson The Julia La Roche Show 2024-07-02 | Entrepreneur-turned-investor Andrew Wilkinson, founder and chairman of Tiny, a Victoria, Canada holding company that invests mostly in tech, joined Julia La Roche on episode 180 to discuss his new book, “Never Enough: From Barista To Billionaire.Once a barista in a small cafe making $6.50 an hour, Andrew Wilkinson built a business valued at over a billion dollars by the time he was 36—and yet, his path to success was anything but a straight line.In Never Enough, Wilkinson pulls back the curtain on the lives of the ultra-rich, sharing insights into building a successful business that has been called a “Berkshire Hathaway, but for internet companies,” and a surprising first-person account of what it's actually like to become a billionaire.Never Enough features both the lessons Wilkinson has learned as well as the many mistakes made on the road to wealth—some of which cost him money, happiness, and important relationships.Taking a "no secrets" approach to stories the wealthy rarely reveal, Wilkinson is unwaveringly honest about some of the unexpected downsides of money: its toxic effect on personal relationships, how the lifestyles of the rich and famous aren't all they're cracked up to be, and how competition with peers leaves everyone—even billionaires—feeling like they never have enough.In this rare and deeply honest account, Wilkinson examines his journey to nine zeros, what came after that pinnacled number, and the essential things money can't buy.Links: Book: amazon.com/Never-Enough-Billionaire-Andrew-Wilkinson/dp/1637744765Twitter/X: https://x.com/awilkinson0:00 Intro and welcome Andrew Wilkinson1:48 Macro view 6:23 AI 10:00 Never Enough book11:35 A from of self therapy 13:00 If you swim with the sharks, you’ll become one 14:00 Getting into business 19:20 First exit — being left with a feeling of wanting more23:00 Building a Tiny ‘Berkshire Hathaway’ 26:46 Framework for finding a CEO 29:19 A $57,700 lunch with Bill Ackman 33:40 Bill Ackman’s advice 36:20 Charlie Munger 39:58 Negotiating the merger — conversations with the ultra-wealthy 43:53 A phone call with Bill Ackman? 45:58 An hour-long conversation with Warren Buffett, signing The Giving Pledge 47:55 Becoming the Anti-Billionaire 49:40 What is enough? 50:56 Writing a first book54:59 Parting thoughts#billionaire #warrenbuffett #investing
Prepare For A Correction | Ed Dowd The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-27 | Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 179 to discuss the macro picture and the markets. In this episode, he points out that the Federal Reserve made a huge policy error by keeping rates too high for too long and we're likely to see a correction that will hit fast in the financial markets. Links: PhinanceTechnologies: phinancetechnologies.comTwitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward00:00 Intro and welcome Ed Dowd 00:46 Macro picture 02:14 On the precipice of a slowdown in the economy03:15 State of the real economy 04:30 Disconnect in the U.S. stock market, a fast and furious correction10:17 Preparing for the correction: allocating portion to T-Bills11:38 Generational opportunity 13:30 Growing debt and deficits 15:45 Need the austerity candidate 16:58 A looming crisis 18:48 UBI and a CBDC 22:25 Gold 24:30 Toxic brew 27:29 Erosion of the middle class29:00 Inflation 30:40 Rate cut 33:00 Policy error of the Fed36:20 Real estate 38:00 Immigration 40:13 GDI for average middle class went up under Trump42:12 Chaos creates opportunity 44:37 Parting thoughts, Phinance Technologies#stockmarket #investing #economy
Central Banks Are Playing A Dangerous Game | Peter Boockvar The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-25 | Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group and a CNBC contributor, discusses the mixed and uneven state of the economy. He highlights the contrasting trends in different sectors, such as housing, consumer spending, and manufacturing. Boockvar also discusses the impact of government spending and the labor market on the overall economy. He emphasizes the confusion and challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and interest rates. Boockvar shares his outlook on the future, including the potential for slower US growth, the importance of Asia in driving economic growth, and his investment preferences in commodities and Asian markets. Links: Substack/The Boock Report: boockreport.comTwitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarBleakley Financial Group: bleakley.comTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar00:51 Macro view, “the most mixed and uneven economy that I've seen” and it feels more like a 1.5% growth rate rather than 3%04:47 Labor market 05:45 What’s happening in the rest of the world economies? 08:00 Inflation09:11 The Fed and interest rates11:03 Bear steepener 13:40 New normal 18:40 Housing market outlook21:45 When will the rising debt/deficit be a problem?27:55 Markets 33:00 Closing remarks
Passive Investing Has Turned The Market On Autopilot | Mike Green The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-18 | Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 178 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market. In this episode, Mike Green discusses some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they've led to the current market conditions. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.Links:Follow Mike on Twitter/x: twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: yesigiveafig.comVisit Simplify: simplify.us0:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green 0:56 Macro picture 2:27 Markets 4:30 The Boomers always win 8:38 Assessment of the health of the economy 12:00 Reduction in hours, increase in part-time work 12:55 Impact of passive investing 20:40 Largest stocks most affected by passive flows23:00 Everyone has become automated 25:17 How does this end? An accelerated reversal of the gains? 28:49 Perception of retirement wealth31:00 Ponzi funds 35:30 Social security 37:00 Markets divorced from fundamentals 41:09 The Fed46:30 Parting thoughts #stockmarket #investing #economy
We Need A Big Drop In Interest Rates To Fix The Commercial Real Estate Problem | Jonathan Treussard The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-13 | Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets and whether or not we are in bubble territory. Link: treussard.com/juliaTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility 04:11 Wealth inequality 05:33 AI06:33 Is the economy healthy? 07:55 Money illusion10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations14:36 Geopolitics 17:50 Middle class 19:50 From musician to economist27:15 Changing perception of America30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit36:00 Banking system 38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty 45:12 Parting thoughts#economy #stockmarket #investing
Were Hiding A Lot — Why Commercial Real Estate Could Be The Next Financial Crisis | Chris Whalen The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-11 | Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 175 to discuss the economy, the risk in commercial real estate, the upcoming presidential election, and the status of the American dream. Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: rcwhalen.com The Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.comStanley Middleman book: amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVCTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 1:55 Macro view today, an indication that the tide is going back out4:40 Residential housing will be the last headwind 5:50 Health of the economy? ‘We’re hiding a lot’ 7:10 Commercial could be the source of the next financial crisis 11:50 Presidential election 14:00 What a Trump victory would mean 16:00 Our debt and deficit — We’re headed toward a crisis18:40 The Fed 21:40 Fed’s focus on language and turning markets into a Kindergarten exercise 23:30 We’ve turned the Fed into a corporate earnings exercise 26:00 Inflation 28:31 The American Dream 31:00 Parting thoughts#economy #realestate #financialcrisis
They’re Going To Print So Much Money It’s Going To Shock You | James Lavish The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-06 | "Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish, the author of The Informationist newsletter and founder/managing partner of The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, joins Julia La Roche on episode 174 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, the pockets of recession especially in the private sector, and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavishThe Informationist: jameslavish.substack.comThe Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome James Lavish1:00 Macro view 2:30 Pockets of recession, fiscal dominance, inflation5:08 Highly manipulated numbers, CPI 10:30 Deficit spending and the economy 12:40 Debt spiral and why the U.S. is a ‘zombie’ 17:20 They’re going to print so much money it’s going to shock people 19:50 U.S. Treasuries 28:15 Stagflation 30:00 Dallas Fed survey: recession red flag? 35:00 Government will continue to recklessly spend 37:03 FOMC and jobs 40:50 Parting thoughts, asset allocation #bitcoin #gold #economy
Why We’re Headed For A Multi-Decade Bear Market | Dave Collum The Julia La Roche Show 2024-06-04 | Dave Collum, Professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University and Zero Hedge Contributor, joins The Julia La Roche to share his views on the economy and markets. In this episode, Professor Collum makes a case that the market today looks “more insane than the dot-com bubble” and why we could be headed for a 40-year bear market. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/DavidBCollumYear-end review: peakprosperity.com/dave-collums-2023-year-in-review-down-some-dark-rabbit-holesTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dave Collum 1:18 Lessons in chemistry 7:00 Investing — bonds, equities, gold 9:10 Gold 14:47 Elizabeth Warren 17:15 Financial crisis 20:13 Case for a 40-year bear market 21:30 Macro view — about to start a serious downturn and we’ve had no pain 29:30 Demographics 30:58 Tailwinds 33:20 BRICs36:40 Election 42:02 How do you prepare for this macro environment + bear market thesis + end of American experiment 45:00 Prepper47:19 Bitcoin 49:08 Performance this year — ‘an old man’s portfolio’ 51:23 Not your typical Ivy League professor + campus culture today as someone who is “Trump tolerant” + cancel culture 1:04:37 Optimism 1:11:58 Closing#gold #investing #economy
Give People Faith In Government Debt — The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level w/ Prof. John Cochrane The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-23 | Economist John Cochrane, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and, before that, the Department of Economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 173. Professor Cochrane is the author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level book and he writes the Grumpy Economist blog. In this episode, Professor Cochrane discusses the current state of the US economy, the fiscal theory of the price level, the causes and challenges of inflation, and the concerning levels of government debt. He emphasizes the need for supply-side efficiency and fiscal discipline to sustain economic growth and control inflation. Cochrane also highlights the limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the importance of responsible fiscal policy in addressing the fiscal picture. He suggests that reforming the tax code, social programs, and reducing middle-class subsidies are necessary to ensure long-term sustainability. The conversation covers topics such as the fragility of the US economy, the persistence of inflation, fiscal dominance, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the importance of long-term economic growth. Cochrane concludes by emphasizing the need to pay attention to incentives and the interconnectedness of various policies. He also mentions the potential of AI and biotech to drive future growth and warns against stifling innovation.Takeaways: * The US economy is currently experiencing low unemployment and a bout of inflation caused by government stimulus.* The fiscal theory of the price level explains that money, government debt, and inflation are interconnected, and the quantity of money and government bonds both impact inflation.* The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has limitations in controlling inflation, and fiscal policy plays a crucial role in addressing inflation and government debt.* To fix the fiscal picture, it is necessary to reform the tax code, social programs, and reduce middle-class subsidies to ensure long-term sustainability.* Responsible fiscal policy, economic growth, and steady primary surpluses are essential to control inflation and maintain a stable economy. * The US economy may be more fragile than it appears, with concerns about the ability to pay back debts and the difficulty of selling longer-term debt.* Forecasting inflation is challenging, and the Federal Reserve and other forecasters have often missed the mark. * The mechanics of inflation are similar to the stock market, and there are risks of higher inflation in certain scenarios.* Fiscal dominance refers to the constraint on monetary policy caused by fiscal policy. The ability to control inflation through fiscal policy may be more challenging now.* The Federal Reserve was slow to act on inflation and needs to consider a wider range of scenarios and incentives in its decision-making process.* The biggest economic story in our lifetimes is long-term growth and the importance of embracing new technologies and innovation. * Incentives play a crucial role in solving economic problems and driving growth.* Social programs and the tax code need to be examined together to understand the full impact on incentives and redistribution.* The interconnectedness of policies and the need to consider the whole system when addressing economic challenges.Links:Twitter/X: https://x.com/JohnHCochraneWebsite: johnhcochrane.comSubstack: substack.com/@grumpyeconomistBook: amazon.com/Fiscal-Theory-Price-Level/dp/0691242240Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome John Cochrane 01:30 Macro picture and understanding inflation04:00 We’re a supply-limited economy, more money and stimulus thrown down ratholes won’t make the economy grow 05:30 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level11:35 Limitations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy17:00 History lesson on 1970s, 1980s inflation 19:00 Fiscal picture today and possible solutions 25:00 The fragility of the US economy31:00 More persistent inflation37:55 Fiscal Dominance41:00 Assessing the Federal Reserve's actions48:00 Long-run growth is the only thing that matters53:00 The Role of Incentives #economy #inflation #macro
Going All In On Solving Our Biggest Challenges | Dave Friedberg The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-21 | Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg, the CEO of The Production Board and CEO of Ohalo and co-host/"Bestie" on The All-In Podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 171 to discuss his company's breakthrough technology that could solve world hunger. Ohalo, a startup that's been in stealth mode, recently filed a patent for its groundbreaking technology, Boosted Breeding. This novel, non-transgenic plant breeding system has the potential to revolutionize agriculture by sustainably increasing crop productivity and yields by 50 to 100%. After years of research by Ohalo's scientists, the technology has been proven effective across various crops. The technology can be applied to a wide range of food crops, including those that currently lack commercial seed systems, such as potatoes. With its significant potential to enhance food availability and sustainability, Ohalo's Boosted Breeding is poised to make a substantial impact on the global agricultural landscape. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/friedbergOhalo: ohalo.comThe Production Board: tpb.coThe All-In Pod: allinpodcast.coEpisode 18 featuring Dave Friedberg: youtu.be/0ARf45HiS1M?si=yWFwnCPdJ1fv_NxjTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Dave Friedberg1:42 Big picture + challenges facing humans today 3:18 A new enlightenment or a new dark ages? 6:33 Independent thought and understanding through reason 9:15 Ohalo and Boosted Breeding breakthrough 13:20 Going all in as CEO of Ohalo 18:00 Results from Boosted Breeding 22:44 Benefits to farmers 27:52 Potential impacts of the technology 34:30 State of the economy, No. 1 issue is debt 41:00 Optimism is technology and productivity gains 45:17 Parting thoughts#technology #agriculture #allinpodcast
A Too Strong Economy The Biggest Risk For Investors? | Bob Elliott The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-16 | Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 170. In this episode, Elliott discusses the macro picture and highlights that the economy is in an income-driven expansion, where people are spending out of their income, leading to sustainable growth. However, this income dominance is creating challenges for the Federal Reserve, as inflation remains elevated and nominal growth is strong. Elliott believes that the Fed will continue to collect more information before making any significant policy changes. He points out that assets are in an “air pocket” right now, and that the biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong, creating pressure on the bond market. He suggests that investors should consider holding more cash, allocate a portion to gold and commodities, and be cautious about stocks and bonds.Links:Twitter: twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedYouTube: youtube.com/@BobEUnlimitedWebsite: unlimitedfunds.comTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and welcome Bob Elliott 01:15 Macro picture today + income-driven economic expansion 03:34 Different angles of looking at inflation 06:11 Fed's policy outlook09:15 Implications of higher for longer 11:50 Long-end of the bond market is the critical driver of asset prices14:47 The biggest risk for equity investors is the economy remains too strong that creates pressure on the bond market16:00 Allocating in this setup 18:30 We’re in an 'air pocket’ right now 23:19 The Fed25:50 Gold allocation and commodities 30:10 Parting thoughts 32:46 Confusion of the income-driven expansion36:00 Recession#investing #inflation #gold
The Economy Has Been Window Dressed And Were Starting To See The Cracks | Carol Roth The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-14 | Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 169 to discuss the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve, the impact of deficit spending, and the challenges faced by small businesses. Links: You Will Own Nothing: carolroth.com/nothing Follow Carol Roth on Twitter: twitter.com/caroljsrothTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth1:15 Macro picture, assessment of the economy 2:30 Massive inflation in assets 3:20 Economy has been “window dressed” 5:40 Deficit-driven economy 8:30 Fiscal dominance 10:45 Stagflation 15:00 The Fed17:00 Debt 20:00 Gold 24:00 State of small business today#economy #investing #gold
The Feds No-Win Situation, Fragility Of Valuations, And Coming Chaos With Hugh Hendry The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-09 | The Acid Capitalist Hugh Hendry joins Julia La Roche again, this time in New York's East Village, for an in-person, unfiltered conversation on macro and more. Links: Twitter/X: twitter.com/hendry_hughPodcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978YouTube: youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficialTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome1:36 Macro view and the Fed’s no win situation 2:45 Revisiting financial history 4:20 The U.S. has become the economic locomotive of global growth5:00 Policy error of fiscal conservatism 6:30 Everything is expensive7:52 Invest 10% of net worth 9:00 Hugh’s hedge fund years 12:24 ‘To manage a lot of money you have to be serious.’ — the suits19:07 Looking at charts and patterns while listening to Pink Floyd24:30 China36:19 The bubble today - the fragility of valuations 38:00 How you want to be allocated 44:16 The conceit and the arrogance of a well-formed argument 47:00 Hugh’s mistake buying Reader’s Digest in the 90s48:48 Hugh’s go-to interview question: Tell me when you know it’s going wrong50:44 Gold’s breakout — not an agent of chaos, the alchemy of chaos52:24 Japanese Yen 53:49 Bitcoin 57:09 Silver 1:01:50 The Fed’s no win situation1:04:00 Japanese Yen 1:06:49 Fed shouldn't be cutting interest rates 1:08:47 Present danger1:11:30 The death of money? 1:15:00 Millennials and bitcoin1:18:48 The Bono story#bitcoin #gold #investing
The Economy Is In For Big Trouble Ahead If Rates Dont Come Down Quickly | Michael Pento The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-07 | Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 167 to discuss the current state of the economy and the potential risks ahead. In this episode, Pento highlights the rising inflation rate, the burden on the middle class, and the unsustainable levels of debt. Pento predicts a slowdown in GDP growth and the possibility of a negative quarter in the second half of the year. He believes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates and engage in quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. Pento also discusses the potential impact on the housing market, equities, and the bond market. He suggests overweighting energy, base metals, and gold in a stagflationary environment.Links: pentoport.comtwitter.com/michaelpento00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Reno00:54 Macro view, inflation, and the bankrupting of the middle class4:08 If rates don’t come down the economy is in trouble 5:49 Fed rate cuts ahead this year? 8:00 Market is massively overvalued 9:36 Stagflation and how to invest in that environment 11:32 Home prices 13:50 Why Powell can’t wait to end QT now 15:23 Long-term yields might not come down16:00 Explosion of rates in high-yield will crush the economy 17:27 Gold 20:00 Erosion of the middle class#economy #investing #stockmarket
Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens — Fed Meeting Reaction With Nancy Davis The Julia La Roche Show 2024-05-02 | Nancy Davis, founder and portfolio manager of Quadratic Capital Management, joins The Julia La Roche for episode 166 to react to the May Fed Meeting and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged. In this episode, Nancy shares that inflation is a persistent issue that cannot be easily resolved. However, she sees this as an opportunity for investors, as many people do not have inflation-protected bonds or exposure to the rates market in their core bond portfolios. Nancy notes that during the last period of high inflation in the 1970s, people often turned to commodities and cyclical equities because the interest rate derivative markets, rates market, and even the inflation-protected bond market did not exist at that time. She adds that investors now have more options to protect their portfolios against inflation compared to the past.Links:IVOL: ivoletf.comQuadratic Capital: quadraticllc.comTwitter: twitter.com/nancy__davis0:00 Intro and welcome Nancy Davis0:59 FOMC reaction 1:22 Fed allowing mortgages to run off2:30 Volatility, explained 3:15 Fed interest rate policy 5:19 Be really careful about not focusing too much on consensus and looking more at what's priced in.5:59 Rate cuts this year/ inflation exposure in investor portfolios7:36 Opportunity in rates10:49 IVOL (Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF)15:48 Rates market a leading indicator for you18:04 Macro picture 19:47 Inflation protected bond market 22:45 Inverted yield curve 24:13 Bonds a good buy? 25:18 Will the Fed cut this year? Will they cut before the election? 26: 22 Assessment of the Federal Reserve/ stagflation? 29:03 Nancy's background32:40 Parting thoughts #inflation #investing #interestrates
If I’m Right On The 10-Year Yield, Watch How Bearish Everyone’s Going To Be | Jim Bianco The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-30 | Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy. In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation, including crypto. Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system. Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.comtwitter.com/biancoresearch Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro 0:59 Macro picture 1:49 Stickier inflation 4:27 Bifurcated economy6:06 Interest rate policy outlook 7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political 9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5% 12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day 13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5% 19:59 Demographics 24:01 Bitcoin ETF 31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million34:10 Parting thoughts #economy #stockmarket #bitcoin
Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage | Chris Whalen The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-25 | Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets.He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing. He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs.Links:Twitter/X: twitter.com/rcwhalenWebsite: rcwhalen.comThe Institutional Risk Analyst: theinstitutionalriskanalyst.comThe Death of Leverage; What’s the WAC of Bank America? theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-americaTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 0:55 Macro view, we’re in a weird dichotomy 2:55 Higher interest rates 4:03 Rate outlook 7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury 10:18 The death of leverage 12:00 Confidence 16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate 20:25 A qualitative recession 25:15 Election year 27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior 32:30 Goodbye #economy #markets #investing
Were Turning Into Something Thats Not Very American | Scott Galloway The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-23 | Best-selling author Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, returns to the pod to join Julia La Roche on episode 163 to discuss his newest book, “The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security.” The Algebra of Wealth book: amazon.com/Algebra-Wealth-Formula-Financial-Security/dp/05937140240:00 Intro and welcome Scott Galloway 1:04 Macro picture of the economy 3:03 Prosperity is not evenly distributed generationally 5:32 The Algebra of Wealth 7:30 Don’t follow your passion, follow your talent 9:20 Focus + Stoicism x Time x Diversification 9:56 Galloway went broke twice 12:25 Divorce 13:30 Having children 15:35 Myth of balance 17:00 Raised by a single mom 21:00 We’re turning into something that’s not very American 25:31 Investing and harvesting 27:00 Our economic policy is we’ve declared war on the young 27:47 Universities, free speech, and antisemitism on campuses 32:32 DEI 38:15 Masculinity49:30 Parting thoughts#economy #investing #wealth
Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally Says S&P 500 Could Hit 5500-5600 If The Fed Stays On Sidelines The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-18 | Keith Fitz-Gerald, principal of the Fitz-Gerald Group, shares his macro view of the world and the five big picture lenses through which he sees the world. He believes that investing in optimism and knowing where the world is going is better than trying to be right at specific moments in time. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have great demand for their products and services and can change consumer behavior. Keith also discusses the role of the Fed and the importance of investing in optimism rather than trying to second-guess the unpredictable actions of the Fed.Link: keithfitz-gerald.com00:00 Introduction and welcome Keith to the show0:53 Simple is better1:50 The five Ds2:50 Does the Fed matter? 5:30 The AI Opportunity and Changing the World8:22 Keith Fitz-Gerald’s S&P 4750 target in 2023 10:50 Buying right now — chaos creates opportunity 13:00 History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes 14:00 Geopolitics and markets 15:55 When in doubt, zoom out 17:13 Portfolio construction 19:03 Took out S&P 500 price target, 5500-5600 may be next stop20:20 The Fed needs to stay on sidelines 22:40 Are markets healthy? 26:00 Outlook for the U.S. 26:50 Gold 29:20 Parting thoughts
Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, And Gold With Michael Howell The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-16 | Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 161 to discuss the global liquidity cycle and its impact on the economy. He explains that liquidity is a key driver of asset prices and that the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher. Howell argues that the focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced, and that the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors. He also highlights the importance of liquidity in the refinancing of debt and warns of the risks of a liquidity shortage. Howell suggests that investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.comTwitter: twitter.com/crossbordercapSubstack: capitalwars.substack.comBook: amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902TakeawaysLiquidity is a key driver of asset prices and the current liquidity cycle is pushing asset prices higher.The focus on interest rates and policy rates is misplaced; the long-term rate and liquidity are more important factors.A shortage of liquidity can lead to banking and refinancing crises.Investors should consider assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, and solid companies on Wall Street as hedges against monetary inflation.Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 1:38 Macro view + liquidity cycle 3:07 Interest rates 6:10 What really matters is the integrity of the US Treasury market 07:47 Hedging Against Monetary Inflation9:16 Gold11:56 US public debt 15:15 Monetizing the debt 18:06 Gold is the pole star in the financial system20:40 US dollar26:29 Inverted yield curve31:37 Conclusion and parting thoughts#investing #gold #economy
The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation | Bill Fleckenstein The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-11 | Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, discusses the macro view of the world and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. He criticizes the Fed for its incompetence and reckless policies that have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital. Fleckenstein also highlights the power of the passive bid in distorting the market and the importance of understanding its effects. He believes that the stock market has become a lagging indicator and that the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation. Elsewhere, Fleckenstein discusses the bond market, gold, and silver. He also expresses concerns about the US national debt and the lack of fiscal responsibility.Links: Book: amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583Twitter/X: twitter.com/fleckcapWebsite:fleckensteincapital.comTakeawaysThe Federal Reserve's incompetence and reckless policies have led to the creation of two huge bubbles and misallocated capital.The passive bid, driven by defined contribution plans and 401k plans, has distorted the market and changed what works and what doesn't.The stock market has become a lagging indicator, and the Fed is trapped and unable to fight inflation.The US national debt is a significant concern, and there is a lack of fiscal responsibility.Gold and silver are seen as insurance policies against inflation and financial disruptions.Chapters0:00 Introduction and welcome Bill Fleckenstein0:55 Macro view and what the Fed does really matters4:30 The distorting effects of the passive bid6:30 The stock market is a lagging indicator 10:45 Equity markets in a bubble or not? 13:30 End game — long end of the bond market rates rise18:26 Inflation and the inflation psychology 23:53 The Fed’s inflation fight, Fed cutting rates would be an obvious mistake26:30 The economy and millennials 29:49 Gold price, gold market has figured out Fed is trapped 34:44 Silver37:04 Outlook on the U.S. and conclusion#gold #inflation #investing
Fiscal Dominance, Rise In Gold, & Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six Figures | Lyn Alden The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-09 | Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 159 to discuss the macro view of the economy, focusing on fiscal dominance. Alden highlights the wide performance gaps between sectors, which are influenced by fiscal and monetary policies. She discusses the implications of fiscal dominance and the challenges it poses for the Fed's tools to control inflation. Alden also shares her insights on asset markets, including the rise of gold, Bitcoin, and undervalued energy stocks.Links: lynalden.comamazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6twitter.com/LynAldenContact00:00 Introduction and overview01:16 Fiscal dominance and its impact sectors04:37 Fiscal dominance, explained 09:37 Higher highs, higher lows of inflations in 2020s12:20 Ironically stimulative 16:18 Assessment of the economy, is it healthy? 18:53 Asset markets, rise in gold is indicative of fiscal problems 22:00 undervalued energy stocks and their catalysts25:33 Insights on Bitcoin, its performance, why it could hit six-figures in next two years30:17 Conclusion and parting thoughts#economy #bitcoin #gold
Inflation, Why Trillions Are Currently Misallocated, And Where To Invest | Larry McDonald The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-04 | New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his newest book, “How To Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy.” According to McDonald, we’re in the financial equivalent of the “Fourth Turning,” where the macro regime has shifted from a disinflationary, austerity-driven world to a new era of sustained inflation and increased demand for hard assets. As such, trillions of dollars of assets are currently misallocated. McDonald highlights the potential for a colossal energy and commodity crisis in the coming years, driven by factors such as the aging power grid, global conflicts, and rising carbon consumption in developing countries. He suggests reallocating portfolios to include a higher component of commodities.Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNRTwitter/X: twitter.com/ConvertbondBear Traps Report: thebeartrapsreport.com00:00 Introduction and welcome Larry McDonald 01:21 The macro outlook and the shift to a new era06:00 A different macro regime, great migration into a totally different portfolio construction09:05 Inflation11:53 Trillions are misallocated 16:00 Recency bias20:23 Early innings in commodities 22:00 Headed for a colossal commodities crisis 26:57 Bitcoin, gold, and silver 31:50 Closing remarks#inflation #investing #commodities
The Hidden Flaws In The Economy with Dr. Gary Shilling The Julia La Roche Show 2024-04-02 | Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 157 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. In this episode, Dr. Shilling discusses the current economic picture, including the possibility of a soft landing and signs of a potential recession. He highlights the narrowing focus of the stock market and the amount of speculation in certain areas. Dr. Schilling also discusses the labor market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the impact of inflation on interest rates. Elsewhere, he shares his investment themes, including the US dollar and the preference for US Treasuries. Dr. Shilling addresses the debt situation in the US. He also points to the risks in commercial real estate. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of finding hidden flaws and going against the consensus in making investment decisions.Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (agaryshilling.com/).00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Shilling01:01 Current macro picture, economy isn’t looking like it’s going into a major recession06:21 Not a healthy economy, highly dependent on labor market and employment07:07 Federal Reserve and interest rate policy10:09 Consumer bifurcation11:35 Interest rates17:40 Hidden flaws 21:00 Investment themes25:35 US Treasuries 27:26 Debt situation in the US32:12 Bubble on the radar? Commercial real estate 36:42 Conclusion#economy #stockmarket #realestate
Unpleasant Time Ahead For Stock Market — What Markets Are Signaling | Tom McClellan The Julia La Roche Show 2024-03-28 | Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, and a prominent figure in the field of stock market analysis and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156. In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices are sending stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and of course the famed McClellan Oscillator. Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet. Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969. Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. Links: mcoscillator.comtwitter.com/McClellanOsc0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan 0:55 Macro view 1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks 2:45 Recession is coming 4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits 5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks 8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June 10:57 McClellan Oscillator 13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns 15:20 Taxes could be a problem 20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long 25:30 Recession call 27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy 35:05 Gold 37:00 Bitcoin38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story 44:00 Parting thoughts#stockmarket #investing #technicalanalysis
Home Prices Will Come Down Says Analyst Who Called The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis | Meredith Whitney The Julia La Roche Show 2024-03-26 | Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer. Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending. Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. But don't worry — it wont' be like the 2007-2008 phenomenon. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care. Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt.Links: meredithwhitneyllc.comTimestamps:0:00 Introduction 01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer04:19 Sentiment 05:58 Housing market and homeownership09:21 Timeline for home prices10:38 Demographic changes and solutions12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans20:31 National debt and foreign buyers22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget23:44 Fear and impact of research calls32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group#economy #housingmarket #housing
Were In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution Thats Destroying Growth | Dr. Art Laffer The Julia La Roche Show 2024-03-21 | Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics.Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms. In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future. Links:amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Overview01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates40:19 The Role of Private Money in the Economy44:34 The Possibility of a Low, Broad-Based Flat Tax Rate50:25 The Failure of Government-Controlled Money54:30 Assessment of the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy57:23 The Importance of Economic Principles over Political Labels01:01:50 Future Topics: Medical Transparency, Debt, Enterprise Zones, and Climate Change#economy #economics #bitcoin
Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call The Julia La Roche Show 2024-03-19 | Amy Nixon, a housing and economic analyst, makes her first podcast appearance in six months after making a pivot on her deflationary recession call. In his episode, Amy discusses the current macroeconomic environment and the challenges it presents. She highlights the combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy as a significant factor in the economy. Amy shares her experience of adapting her forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions. She also discusses the state of the housing market, the impact of institutional buyers, and the future of real estate agents. Amy addresses the concerns of millennials in the housing market and offers insights into owning a home as an investment. Links: twitter.com/texasrunnerDFWTakeawaysThe combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is a significant factor in the current macroeconomic environment.Adapting forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions is crucial for accurate analysis.The housing market is facing challenges due to tight credit, low transaction volume, and high liquidity.Owning a home as an investment can be beneficial for wealth building, especially for individuals without much investment knowledge.The future of the economy is influenced by factors such as inflation, political decisions, and market dynamics.Chapters00:00 Introduction and macro view of the economy01:18 Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy03:15 The importance of admitting mistakes and analyzing new data04:12 Adapting forecasts and expectations for 2023 and 202404:23 The impact of changing analysis on housing market09:46 The state of the housing sector12:38 The impact of institutional buyers on the housing market21:15 The housing market and Millennials25:21 Owning a home as an investment26:03 The Airbnb bust thesis32:06 Inflation and the future of the economy#economy #realestate #housingmarket
