Increased Rainfall over Greenland by 33% Means Less Snowfall and Thus Less Ice Accumulation Paul Beckwith 2026-09-23 | Increased Rainfall over Greenland by 33% Means Less Snowfall and Thus Less Ice Accumulation
Not-Normal Record-Setting Heat is Killing Many People: Could Chill Suits (Cooling Suits) Mitigate? Paul Beckwith 2024-06-20 | I chat about ongoing heat waves around the planet, and the serious risk that they pose to humanity.The annual pilgrimage to Mecca exposes over a million people to desert heat, and when humid air over the Red Sea moves west across Saudi Arabia towards Mecca the wet-bulb temperatures get ever closer to near fatal thresholds. Apparently, over 1000 people have already died over the last few days, and with slightly higher temperatures and/or humidity that 1000 would easily turn into 10,000 or even 100,000. Mortality from wet-bulb is highly nonlinear, and abrupt and we are playing with fire with such outdoor events.I also chat about Chill Suits, also known as Cooling Suits and other possible heat mitigation technologies.My favourite supplier is Dharma Technologies in India. Their founder invented the first such suit in 2011. The cooling technology, known as Peltier Coolers (Thermo-Electric chips (PN junctions)) has no moving parts and runs off a rechargeable battery. My favourite device is the Fitness Wrist band, that cools the blood flowing through the wrist and the cooling propagates to the whole body, lowering core body temperature and mostly mitigating heat stress on the body.The technology is pricy, but should become much less expensive as economies of scale kick in when many units are sold.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. Stay cool and chill out and buckle up for a summer of intense record setting heat around the globe.
Dark Heat: A Sarah and JanetN Mystery — Using CliFi (Climate Fiction) to Communicate to People Paul Beckwith 2024-06-18 | Dark Heat: A Sarah and JanetN Mystery — Using CliFi (Climate Fiction) to Communicate to PeopleIn this video I chat about the recent climate fiction book by Tom Riley. amazon.ca/Dark-Heat-Sarah-JanetN-Mystery/dp/1778832075As I wrote for the back cover of the print version of the book:“This book is an awesome tale of survival as a young girl and her AI friend negotiate the near term world of climate mayhem — Paul Beckwith”The author Tom Riley retired from NASA in 2014, and started coaching young people in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics). It soon became clear to Tom that he develop a detailed discussion of what needed to be done about our climate crisis and how it will affect their future. Tom has written a series of three fiction books, and is seeking comments on Dark Heat while he works towards continuing this series.For a short time only, the entire audiobook of Dark Heat is available for free at this link: youtu.be/G169PuVeL5M?si=2EAeik99_0E-o6u0Please have a listen (or read) and note the following:1. The free audiobook is available for a short time only2. Tom is requesting comments on his book/audiobook; please help him out!3. Does the story and the characters ring true to you?4. What do young people think of it?5. Should we write more? Tom is hoping to add another book to his series, and would appreciate feedback on his great work.Please help him out by commenting on the audiobook link on YouTube. youtu.be/G169PuVeL5M?si=2EAeik99_0E-o6u0I really believe that climate fiction is an under-utilized and potentially important lever to get information on our accelerating climate crisis out to people. In my video, I also chat about a fiction book that was written in 1976 called Deluge: amazon.ca/Deluge-Richard-Doyle/dp/0330252577It is all about a catastrophic storm surge that drowns London England. I just picked up a copy at a local “Little Library” in Ottawa on a neighbours front lawn; it is a great read.In fact, in 1953 there was an enormous surge that killed many people. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953To prevent such catastrophes, given rising sea levels, the Thames Barrier was built to protect London. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_BarrierConstruction of this barrier started in 1974, and it was completed in 1984. Since the Deluge book was published in 1976, it is possible that the fictional deluge impacted some decision makers and ensured completion of the barrier, which suffered funding shortfalls during construction.As of May, 2024 the Thames Barrier has been activated 221 times to prevent flooding, and as sea level rises this number will surely increase at a faster rate.I truly believe that Climate Fiction has a very important role to play in communicating the seriousness of climate change, and hope you can listen to Tom’s audiobook (free for a short time only) and give him feedback via comments.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
How the Rapidly Approaching AMOC Shutdown will Completely Change our Lives Paul Beckwith 2024-06-14 | I chat all about the AMOC = Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation system.The primary reason the northern hemisphere average temperature is 1.4C warmer than the southern hemisphere is the AMOC.The primary reason the “thermal equator” is at 10 N latitude and not at the geographic equator is the AMOC.When the AMOC shuts down, everything changes. It becomes very difficult to grow food.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Torrential Rains Hit Ottawa: Rain Intensity Looks Like a Record to Me… Paul Beckwith 2024-06-06 | About a week and a half ago, the rainfall intensity in the Glebe area of Ottawa was the highest I have seen.Today beats it, by double, as my best guess. I filmed my journey to Bank Street and Eddy’s Diner. Got a wee bit wet.I could have waited, but I had a craving for bacon and eggs that overcame ant reluctance to venture out into the storm!!!Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Update on James Hansen’s Work and Sophie’s Planet Book Paul Beckwith 2024-06-04 | I chat about the latest and created from James Hansen and his book in progress.New letter by James Hansen: Sophie’s Planet and Terminations: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/May30Email.2024.05.30.pdfJames Hansen’s Columbia University Website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Book information: Storms of My Grandchildren: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storms_of_My_GrandchildrenSophie’s Planet: Pre-release chapters: Introduction, Chapter 1 on Ancestry, Chapter 13 on Runaway Greenhouse, and Chapter 20 on Greenhouse Giants:https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/PrefaceSophiePlanet.pdfSophie’s Planet: Chapter 25 on Paleoclimate and “Slow Feedbacks”: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/Planet.Ch25.2024.05.13.pdfPlease donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
How Massive Reduction in China’s Aerosols Have Increased Global Warming and Changed Precipitation Paul Beckwith 2024-05-29 | Between 2010 and 2017 China reduced SO2 aerosol emissions by 70%, Black carbon by 29%, and Organic Carbon by 41%. These huge efforts have saved numerous Chinese lives by cleaning up the air. However, we know that aerosols have a large effect on radiative forcing, and thus on temperature and precipitation patterns. With less aerosols, there is less reflection of incoming solar radiation and this more surface warming (direct effect). More significantly, with less aerosols there are fewer low level clouds and much greater increases in solar radiation hitting the surface, with much greater warming (indirect effect). With China’s huge reductions of aerosols, this warming has extended into the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic leading to greatly increased regional warming there.When North America cleaned its air, the warming accelerated especially over the Atlantic Ocean and Arctic.When Europe cleaned up its air, the warming accelerated over China and into the Pacific and Arctic.Aerosol effects are super powerful, and it is becoming ever more obvious that James Hansen has been right all along. Aerosol masking effects are much stronger than mainstream science expected, meaning Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is also much greater than mainstream science (IPCC) expected.The good news:SOS (Solar Optimization Strategies), which is my term replacing the accountants term SRM (Solar Radiation Management) will be an extremely powerful antidote to prevent complete civilization collapse, if we do it right.It will be done. The only question is will we do it right?Key references…Deadly Pacific ‘blobs’ tied to emission cuts in ChinaWarming due to cleaner air rippled across the ocean, modeling suggests… science.org/content/article/deadly-pacific-blobs-tied-emission-cuts-chinaEarth Nullschool earth.nullschool.netAtmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121#:~:text=Here%2C%20we%20show%20that%20the,contributing%20to%20increased%20warm%20blob“Climate effects of China’s efforts to improve its air quality”: key open source peer-reviewed scientific study: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e21/pdfPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Weird Things are Happening with Tornadoes Paul Beckwith 2024-05-26 | Tornadoes are behaving differently in the USA.They are occurring in clusters, with more ferocity.Tornado Alley has shifted 400 to 500 miles to the east, and northeast.I chat about the latest science and consequences of this weird tornado behaviour.The US has about 1200 tornadoes per year. First place in the world by a mile. In fact by 12x. That is 12x the number of that in second place. Guess who is in second place. Canada. I would never have guessed this. Canada is so sparsely populated, most are not even noticed.Here are all the important links. Be sure to check them out.Something weird is happening with tornadoes.vox.com/climate/24155885/tornado-season-twister-clusteringNOAA April 2024 Tornado Reportncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/202404Clustering of tornadoes in the USAlink.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-020-03402-1The Future of Supercells in the USjournals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/104/1/BAMS-D-22-0027.1.pdfWatch Out: Tornado Alley Is Migrating EastwardTornado outbreaks are moving from Texas and Oklahoma toward Tennessee and Kentucky, where people may not be prepared…scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastwardStudy: U.S. tornado frequency shifting eastward from Great Plainshttps://newsroom.niu.edu/study-u-s-tornado-frequency-shifting-eastward-from-great-plains/Severe Storm, Supercell, and Tornado Trendsclimatecentral.org/climate-matters/severe-storm-supercell-and-tornado-trends-2023Do You Want the Good or Bad News on Tornadoes and Hurricanes?bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-09/hurricanes-and-tornadoes-may-occur-less-but-destroy-more-as-climate-changesAs Scientific American reports, FEMA’s disaster relief fund is due to run out of money partway through the year, a shortfall that also existed in 2023, which led to the agency putting thousands of projects on hold. scientificamerican.com/article/tornadoes-floods-and-hurricanes-loom-but-the-government-is-running-out-ofPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Howler Monkeys Dropping Dead from Heat and High Humidity and Lack of Water in Mexico Paul Beckwith 2024-05-24 | In Mexico, howler monkeys have been dropping from trees “like apples” and dying almost immediately from heatstroke, dehydration, and also from the impact with the ground if they fall from great heights. Many people have also perished in the long duration heatwaves. Lack of rainfall throughout the region means that lakes, reservoirs, and rivers are extremely low, and the lack of water for hydroelectric power plants has caused rolling blackouts, even to highly urbanized cities like Mexico City. Mexico, and other widespread regions in the tropics have been experiencing a record setting heatwave and drought for many weeks, with temperatures reaching over 47C (117 F) in some regions. Climate change impacts that we are seeing today are brutal in increasing numbers of regions across the planet.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Daily Tidal Flexing of Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier Bodes ill for Global Sea Level Rise Paul Beckwith 2024-05-21 | Each day, as the tide rises and falls it lifts up the Antarctica and Greenland glaciers that are resting on bedrock well below sea level.I chat about new observations, from Differential Synthetic Aperture Radars located on a constellation of Polar Orbiting satellites, that can accurately measure the rise and fall and flexing of the Thwaites Glacier in western Antarctica. Basically, as the tide comes in and goes out, the whole ice sheet lifts up and then falls, and the satellite radars can observe the flexing of the ice sheets, warm water intrusion under the ice, and we can thus determine how unstable the glacier actually is. Using this information in climate models (yet to be done) should allow these models to more accurately model and perhaps even match the much larger sea level rises that we see in Paleorecords observations. Not good for the planet, this vital study provides a mechanism to explain why present estimates of global sea level rise are much lower than what we can expect according to the Paleorecords observations of rapid ice melt rates accelerating global sea level rise (meltwater pulses in the Paleorecords)…Have a look at the data and results yourself; here are the relevant links:Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica - by Eric Rignot et al.:pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2404766121Satellite radar data show kilometer-scale seawater intrusion, causing ice to rise and fall: https://news.uci.edu/2024/05/20/uc-irvine-led-team-uncovers-vigorous-melting-at-antarcticas-thwaites-glacierAntarctica glaciers and movement: antarcticglaciers.orgAntarctica bedrock topography with no ice:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Antarctica_Without_Ice_Sheet.pngPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. You can also find me on Patreon!!Thanks,Paul
James Hansen Update on Global Warning Acceleration Paul Beckwith 2024-05-17 | On the thumbnail, which is a photo taken at a recent COP climate conference, I appear to be a napper while James Hansen appears to be dapper!!Hot off the presses; today’s exciting news flash is a new letter by the esteemed Sir James Hansen. If I was the King of England, I would certainly knight this brilliant climate scientist. If I was asked to name my most admired climate person, I would have to say James (sorry Greta). Guess who is second??Yes Virginia, there is an acceleration of global warming since 2010, with 99% probability. If you don’t know about James and his work, start here: google.ca/search?q=james+hansen&sca_esv=17f8a8f7a4f95661&source=hp&ei=xdtGZseuCYOfptQP8Iuq2A0&oq=james+hansen&gs_lp=EhFtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1ocCIMamFtZXMgaGFuc2VuMgUQLhiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEC4YgARIkzJQ7QpYuy5wAngAkAEAmAGXAaABuAuqAQQwLjEyuAEDyAEA-AEBmAIOoALrDKgCFMICBRApGKABwgIKECkYgAQYQxiKBcICBRApGIAEwgICECnCAhAQKRgDGOUCGOoCGIwDGI8BwgIQEAAYAxjlAhjqAhiMAxiPAcICEBAuGAMY5QIY6gIYjAMYjwHCAhEQLhiABBiRAhixAxiDARiKBcICCxAAGIAEGJECGIoFwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYgwEYigXCAggQLhiABBixA8ICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBcICChAuGIAEGEMYigXCAg4QLhiABBiRAhixAxiKBcICEBAuGIAEGLEDGEMYgwEYigXCAg4QABiABBiRAhixAxiKBcICCBAAGIAEGLEDwgILEC4YgAQYsQMYgwGYAw2SBwQyLjEyoAeegQE&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hpIf you want to see his recent letters, then look here: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/For a direct link to his most recent writings, here is the scoop: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/MayEmail.2024.05.16.pdfTo support my work, please donate to my PayPal at http://PaulBeckwith.net or find me on Patreon, as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. By the way, you are my second favourite climate personality. Yes you.Why?Because you are watching this video, commenting on it, and sharing it to at least one friend. Oh, and hopefully donating to support my efforts.One supporter sent me 8 lbs of nuts. I must say that when eating them I feel a bit like a cannibal. After all, aren’t I the biggest nutter (affectionate British slang) of them all!!
Feelings of Climate Scientists, and the Scoop on the next IPCC Assessment Report Seven (AR7) cycle Paul Beckwith 2024-05-14 | I first revisit the recent Guardian survey of 380 climate scientists and their expectations on what temperatures will rise to over the coming decades. Hint: 1.5C and 2.0C will be left in the dust, with 77% of respondents saying we are heading to a much much warmer world.I then chat about what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is planning to do as they meet to discuss their next gigantic climate reports that will be Assessment Report Seven (AR7). First, a bit of background on the most recent AR6 reports:In reverse chronological order, the IPCC reports for AR6 came out as follows:AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 was released March, 2023; 42 pages long, a report called “longer report” was 85 pages.AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (also known as Working Group 3; WG3 report) came out April, 2022; 2042 pages long.AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (also known as WG2 report) came out February, 2022; 3068 pages long.AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (also known as WG1 report) came out August, 2021; 2409 pages long.Total page count: 2409 + 3068 + 2042 + 85 + 42 for a grand total of 7,646 pages. Your homework is to read this; quiz in a few weeks!!!I should note that when the WG1, WG2, and WG3 reports came out they were mostly illegible since each page was struck with a diagonal to diagonal, large bold overprint saying “Draft Copy” which was not removed for many many months, really discouraging anybody from reading them.Rinse and repeat…The IPCC has just announced that the next cycle of reports is being planned, and the Assessment Report Seven (AR7) is in the early planning stages.By reading the recent IPCC meeting news for this year, it appears that WG1 - The Physical Science Basis will be out late 2029, probably with the bold “Draft Copy” splashed across each page making it unreadable. That’s about 8 years after the last one. I can’t wait!!!Also, a special report on climate change and cities will be released by the IPCC in early 2027.You heard it here first, on Beckwith’s channel. Is this enough international global action?I’m thinking of covering the full 7,646 pages of the AR6 reports in videos. I figure 3 videos per 100 pages, so we are looking at about 230 videos. What do you think?Is this a good idea? Let me know your thought’s.In the meantime, please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem, and also to ensure that I do or don’t do these 230 videos.
Terrifying Tornado Turmoil Troubles USA over last Two weeks… Paul Beckwith 2024-05-12 | Over the last few weeks, tornados have hammered the USA. As the clash of cold air is slowly being replaced with warm spring air, there is a lot of energy and convective uplift in the atmosphere, and it seems like copious triggers are available to agitate the tornadic action we are seeing in the large frontal storms. Doppler radars are showing velocity couplets galore, and many people are experiencing the wrath of these storms. We have even had tornado twins, one tornado extended right up to the stratosphere, and one even spun the wrong way, putting it in the rare category (one to two percent of all tornados) that have clockwise (anti-cyclonic) rotation. The two tornadoes even seemed to dance in the Fujiwara jig, more common with large tropical cyclones (or hurricanes). Looking at a map of this years tornados thus far, it seems clear that we no longer have a sharply defined region that used to be called “tornado alley”. Instead, the geographic locations where we are seeing tornados is much more distributed, with many tornadoes occurring north and east of the traditional “tornado alley”, and many occurring in Florida. As I have mentioned for many years, this is exactly what we can expect from an atmosphere turbocharged by abrupt climate system mayhem.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Climate Scientist’s Survey Says: Grim Future Ahead for us on Planet Earth Paul Beckwith 2024-05-10 | The Guardian just surveyed 380 climate scientists to get their views on our climate future, and the results are very sobering.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despairThe UN echoes the despair of the climate scientists, and says we are on the brink of catastrophe…‘The stakes could not be higher’: world is on edge of climate abyss, UN warns…theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/world-is-on-verge-of-climate-abyss-un-warnsMeanwhile, Trump promises fossil fuel executives, that if they fund his campaign with a billion dollars, he will scrap all Biden’s climate policies:theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/09/trump-oil-ceo-donationMeanwhile, we had a record-breaking increase in CO2 levels in world’s atmosphere; 4.7 ppm rise over last year…theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-record?CMP=share_btn_urlClimate mayhem is getting very real, faster than expected…Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Global Flooding and Eco-Anxiety Paul Beckwith 2024-05-08 | Rain, rain, go away.And come back another day…
Gobsmackingly Bizarre Behaviour in Antarctic and Arctic Sea Ice Changes Ocean Circulation and Mixing Paul Beckwith 2024-05-04 | In this video I chat about the profound changes in Polar Sea Ice. In particular, it appears that we may have already crossed a tipping point, with wrenching changes in Antarctica Sea Ice in particular since 2015-2016. Up until then, Antarctic Sea Ice grew slowly, with a trend increase in extent of about 1.5% per decade. Since then we have had a number of trend-setting record low years, with 2023 having a minimum sea ice extent of less than 2 million square kilometres. Even worse, the winter ice growth has been severely lower than normal by several million square kilometres.Associated with this lack of sea ice, the overturning ocean circulation systems have been severely reduced. This Thermo Haline Circulation (THC) overturning circulation, includes the AMOC in the North Atlantic (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and the SMOC in the southern hemisphere (Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation) has slowed, by up to 30% in the last few decades. Remember that Earth’s Climate is an intricate interconnected system, analogous to an exquisitely crafted mechanical system of gears in an expensive Swiss watch. Humanity has effectively thrown a wrench into the cogs and gears of the watch, and is only starting to feel the effects and understand what we did.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots an abrupt climate system mayhem.
Positive Tipping Points in Technology, Economy, and Society Paul Beckwith 2024-04-30 | “Negative” tipping points in our climate system are rapidly approaching. Early warning signals for many systems like global ocean currents are showing “critical slowing down” warning signs that they are losing resilience and could soon change our planet. Hysterisis means that once tipped by the accelerating warming, a cooling may not reverse things for centuries to millennia.What do we do?Our only chance is positive tipping points. I’ve often talked about “my three legged barstool approach”: 1) slash fossil fuel emissions; 2) deploy Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR); also for methane, and 3) Deploy Solar Radiation Management (SRM) to cool the planet to buy us time, by stopping tipping, to do 1) and 2). This report kind of ignores SRM. That’s why you need to read Gwynne Dyers new book “Intervention Earth”. I like how he says SRM is an accountants term.I propose a new acronym, for the very first time, here in my video.We need to call it SOS. Yes, for Save Our Souls. Also standing for:Solar Optimizing Systems — SOS’sSolar Optimization Systems — SOS’sSolar Optimizing Solutions — SOS’sSolar Optimization Solutions — SOS’sWe have changed the chemistry of our atmosphere and oceans and destabilized our planetary systems.Now, we need to save ourselves. We need SOS systems to rebalance our energy flows and maintain a liveable planet.Frankly, it is our only option.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.My bills this month are unexpected and huge:(
Governance of Earth System Tipping Points: What can we do?? Paul Beckwith 2024-04-27 | I chat about some ideas on what countries can possibly do to govern collective action to try and avoid Global Earth System Tipping Points, if anything. Countries around the world meet yearly at COPs, and also support the UN, at least on paper, in their efforts to achieve various Sustainable Development Goals or SDGs. Clearly, as we approach more and more global tipping points at faster and faster rates, we (countries around the world) need to take strong, coordinated steps to act in unison to prevent crossing numerous global tipping points, many of which are not reversible for thousands of years.Essentially, we are playing with fire, and cannot continue to ignore the huge threats our species faces from these system tipping changes.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
IMPACTS of Earth Tipping Points on Societal Breakdown, Radicalization, Polarization, Anomie, Wars… Paul Beckwith 2024-04-27 | In recent videos I have discussed the major Earth System Tipping Points that we are fast approaching.Here, I chat about how these nonlinear climate changes are likely to impact society. In fact climate change is already having profound impacts to human societies and is decreasing our resilience and even agency to respond. Already, we are seeing increased societal breakdowns, social unrest, more conflicts, radicalization and polarization, and overall dysfunction and “anomie”. Anomie is an old sociological term for individuals losing interest and touch and connection with their communities. For example, people living in high-rise buildings often don’t care about or even know anybody in their buildings, even next door neighbours. As climate change accelerates rapidly, we are losing our window to respond in any meaningful way.I discuss various case studies of interactions and connections between climate, physical changes, societal impacts, and effects for:- AMOC collapse- coral reef collapse- Lake Chad drying up- Amazon Rainforest Collapse- Arab SpringBasically, we are all connected. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Cascading domino like effects are all around us.Please donates to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Cascading Tipping Points and Early Warning Signals showing a Critical Slowing Down Paul Beckwith 2024-04-22 | I chat about tipping point cascades in the climate system and Early Warming Signals that show we are rapidly approaching a multitude of tipping points. A good analogy is that of dominos, we often think of one chain of dominos, where one topples the next, and so on until they all fall down. Some tipping points are like this, but the AMOC collapse would be more like parallel chains of dominos, where one domino tipping hits 2 or 3 other dominos simultaneously, causing a multitude of tipping chains, which is a greatly magnified effect.Let’s say the first thing that tips is the Arctic Sea Ice loss and then massive Greenland Ice Sheet calving. This would inject large amounts of fresh water into the Arctic, and the lighter water could shut down the AMOC. This would cool the whole high-latitude Northern hemisphere. Thus, it would stabilize and regrow Arctic Sea Ice, Greenland, and slow down and even reverse permafrost loss. The Southern Hemisphere would warm, the ITCZ would shift southward, tropical monsoons would shift southward, the ENSO would likely change to a near permanent El Niño, and we would really be in a different world. Eventually, the warming in the north would re-establish itself and come to dominate the cooling effects with a vengeance.Via statistical analysis on the dynamics of system change, we have various Early Warning System (EWS) indicators that give us some clues as to how close we are to thresholds of various Earth system tipping elements. Importantly, most systems exhibit a critical slowing down as they lose resilience when we near threshold of tipping; this is reflected in an increase in the autocorrelation functions. I chat about the many tipping elements that are showing these EWS signs in an alarming way.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Tipping Points in the Ocean and Atmosphere Global Circulations Paul Beckwith 2024-04-19 | I chat here about the latest science on tipping points in the dynamic fluid systems of the Earth, namely the ocean circulation patterns and the atmospheric circulation patterns.The most recent key review document containing this knowledge summary is “Global Tipping Points 2023”: global-tipping-points.orgThe key ocean current systems that are presently showing early warning signs of rapid approach to tipping points include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and the Antarctic Southern Circulation systems.There is a huge risk that as the slowdown and even stoppage of some of these global ocean circulation systems proceeds, the monsoonal rainfall in the tropics from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will all change, as the ITCZ would shift southward, so the existing monsoonal patterns would all shift, with the existing monsoonal regions getting much drier as the rainfall falls in regions further to the south. Clearly, this would impact millions to hundreds of millions to even billions of people in these regions.Also, changes to the atmospheric circulation are examined, with the conclusion (in the review paper) essentially being that the shifts are not likely to exhibit tipping behaviour (don’t think I agree). Also, effects on the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) to a more “permanent El Niño state) are discussed.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Bad Global Tipping Points in the Earth’s Biosphere Paul Beckwith 2024-04-18 | In my recent videos, I have discussed the amazingly fantastic report called “Global Tipping Points 2023”: global-tipping-points.orgIn this video I chat all about the global tipping points in the biosphere. The various ecosystems of planet Earth are grouped into various “biomes” and are occupied by a plethora of flora (plants) and fauna (animals) of amazing numbers and even more amazing biodiversity. We are rapidly destroying this biodiversity, and there are many negative tipping points (regime changes, critical transitions) that are accelerating this damage abruptly. Once gone, it is impossible to ever recover many of these species, or ecosystems.I chat about the loss of resilience and stress on many different biomes, including:— tropical forests including the Amazon— boreal forests— temperate forests-- savannah and grasslands— drylands— freshwater lakes— coastal regions— coral reefs— mangroves— sea grasses— kelp— fisheriesClearly, biodiversity around our planet is being severely distressed, and the faster climate change accelerates, the greater the danger of collapse.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Global Tipping Points of the Cryosphere: Greenland, Antarctica, Sea Ice at both Poles, Permafrost Paul Beckwith 2024-04-12 | In this video, I continue to chat about the report “Global Tipping Points”: global-tipping-points.orgI cover the Report Sections from Page 31 to 77. This includes sections on introducing Positive Tipping Points. I also cover the so-called Negative Tipping Points (Earth System Tipping Points) for the cryosphere, specifically for Greenland and Antarctica, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, alpine glaciers, and permafrost (both on land and subsea, ice-rich and ice-poor).I am delving into the details and the figures, since this report is vital to inform people from all walks of life about the huge risks of “negative tipping points” in the Earth system that we are fast approaching, some likely already crossed. I find that making a detailed video really helps reinforce my own knowledge base on this very important topic.Equally, or arguable more importantly humans have agency to transform society via “positive tipping points”, but these require governance and human agency to occur. At the moment, there is no global governance organization or even recognition by most governments and policy makers on the need for quickly establishing this global governance.Time is a wasting…Enjoy…Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Global Tipping Points Status: Nearing Earth System Tipping Points demand a Societal Transformation Paul Beckwith 2024-04-12 | While COP28 occurred in Dubai, UAE near the end of last year, a landmark paper on the present status of Global Tipping Points was released.This video here is my first one on this group and report led by Timothy Lenton and the University of Exeter. The report goes into great detail on the myriad of Earth System tipping points and how they can fall like cascading dominos, vicious feedbacks, or a “House of Cards”. There is tremendous urgency since many of these thresholds for negative tipping points are fast approaching, and Early Warning Signals show that some have likely already been crossed.To counter these negative tipping points (also known to scientists as positive feedbacks) we need human caused positive tipping points (also known to scientists as negative feedbacks). Humans really are in a tug-of-war to remain on this planet in the form of a viable civilization: at the moment we are failing miserably, and act like there is no tomorrow.Website:Global Tipping Pointsglobal-tipping-points.org“Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries.The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society.Foreword by Dr. Andrew Steer, President & CEO at Bezos Earth Fund.”Report PDF (open source): please readDownload Full Report from global-tipping-points.org“Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.For example, the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s great overturning circulation combined with global warming could cause half of the global area for growing wheat and maize to be lost.Five major tipping points are already at risk of being crossed due to warming right now and three more are threatened in the 2030s as the world exceeds 1.5°C global warming. The full damage caused by negative tipping points will be far greater than their initial impact. The effects will cascade throughglobalised social and economic systems, and could exceed the ability of some countries to adapt. Negative tipping points show that the threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is farmore severe than is commonly understood and is of a magnitude never before faced by humanity.Currently, there is no adequate global governance at the scale of the threats posed by negative tipping points. The world is on a disastrous trajectory. Crossing one harmful tipping pointcould trigger others, causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable change to our life-support systems. Preventing this – and doing so equitably – should become the core goal and logicof a new global governance framework. Prevention is only possible if societies and economic systems are transformed to rapidly reduce emissions and restore nature.The current approach of linear incremental change favoured by many decision makers is no longer an option. Existing governance institutions and decision-making approaches need to adapt tofacilitate transformational change.Crucial to achieving this transformational change are positive tipping point opportunities, where desirable changes in society become self-propelling. Concerted actions can create the enabling conditions for triggering rapid and large-scaletransformation. Human history is flush with examples of abrupt social and technological change. Recent examples include the exponential increases in renewable electricity, the global reach of environmental justice movements, and the accelerating rollout of electric vehicles. Negative tipping point threats could be mitigatedif there was a vast effort to trigger other positive tipping point opportunities.Unfortunately, in the time lag during which appropriate governance and action might be realised, negative tipping points could still be triggered. This means that societies must urgentlybe made more resilient to minimise the vast and unequal harms. Critically, more resilient societies are also needed to ensure that collective focus on triggering positive tipping point opportunitiescan be sustained even through a negative tipping event. This resiliency can be achieved with ‘no regrets’ actions that anyway make societies more sustainable, equitable and prosperous.The existence of tipping points means that ‘business as usual’ is now over. Rapid changes to nature and society are occurring, and more are coming. If we don’t revise our governance approach, these changes could overwhelm societies…Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Unusually Rapid Reversal of Polar Vortex from Sudden Stratospheric Warming Paul Beckwith 2024-04-11 | Beginning around March 4th, there was a very rapid reversal of the Arctic Polar Vertex via a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) of over 50 C.This reversal started as a splitting (bifurcation) of the counter clockwise (ccw) polar vortex, resulting in two meshed gears: one ccw and the other clockwise (cw). The cw gear soon dominated, as the usual ccw one weakened. This continued throughout the month of March, and in early April we have the usual ccw Polar Vortex being established.I show these transitions using Earth Nullschool and try to explain what is happening. During the reversed state, ozone was pulled upward setting record high levels in basically a “reverse ozone hill” versus the usual “ozone hole” over Antarctica. Also, it looks like the reversals are much more common during both the El Niño and La Niña states, and not common during the neutral “El Nothing” state.Climate change is certainly never boring!!Sources“Polar vortex is 'spinning backwards' above Arctic after major reversal event”livescience.com/planet-earth/weather/polar-vortex-is-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-after-major-reversal-event“The polar vortex circling the Arctic is swirling in the wrong direction after surprise warming in the upper atmosphere triggered a major reversal event earlier this month. It is one of the most extreme atmospheric U-turns seen in recent memory.”“Wandering polar vortex may cause a wild, snowy winter”livescience.com/polar-vortex-disruption-snowy-weather.html“What is the Polar Vortex?”metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/polar-vortex“Atmospheric Waves Awareness: An Explainer”planetary.org/articles/atmospheric-waves-awareness“The Polar Vortex is spinning backwards”spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=20&month=03&year=2024NOAA polar vortex blog:“It was the perfect winter to launch a polar vortex blog”http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/it-was-perfect-winter-launch-polar-vortex-blog“What is ozone”livescience.com/ozone.htmlEarth Nullschoolearth.nullschool.netPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Solar Eclipse Totality in Cornwall, Ontario April 8, 2024 Paul Beckwith 2024-04-09 | I drove about an hour south from Ottawa today to Cornwall Ontario to see totality of the lunar eclipse of the Sun. Totality lasted 2 minutes in my location, and the whole thing lasted 2 hours and 24 minutes. It was awe inspiring, life-changing, and very emotional and profound to experience it. Totally different from even a 99% partial eclipse. I may have to add eclipse chasing to my hurricane and tornado storm chasing!!It was really freaky. The birds all went quiet, it got much darker than I expected, and the temperature dropped 2 to 3 C in minutes, taking almost an hour to recover. During the darkness, scanning 360 degrees it looked like sunset on every horizon. I took some Cineplex 3D plastic glasses, removed the polarizer lenses, and used electrical tape to attach my paper solar eclipse glasses to the durable frames. Worked a charm. Newton was freaked out by my glasses and the eclipse, but loved chasing the stick I threw far out into the St. Lawrence River. He almost pulled me into the river once, when he spotted some Canada Geese swimming. It was totally unexpected, since I had the eclipse glasses on and was captivated by the celestial spectacle. I was relieved when the Sun came back, since I had envisioned global chaos within hours, agriculture failure within days, and oceans freezing over within weeks to months, not to mention a possible Zombie Apoc-Elipse, if the Sun had not reappeared.Sincerely,Paul
World Energy Outlook: Global Update on the Surge of Electrification and Renewables Paul Beckwith 2024-04-08 | The main Fossil Fuels, namely coal, oil, and gas (natural gas) are all expected to peak by 2030 (that’s only 6 years from now). Once they peak, they will steadily fall, but not fast enough. However, incredible gains are being made in Solar PV (photovoltaic), wind turbine power, Electric Vehicles, energy efficiency, heat pumps, etc. For example, in 2020 only 1 in 25 new cars (4%) were electric, and by the end of 2023 about 1 in 5 (20%) were electric. Growth in China has been gigantic, but even that is rapidly slowing now. Critical minerals for the explosive growth of renewable energy and electrification, such as copper, lithium, platinum and cobalt are concentrated mostly within 3 top country suppliers. This puts supply chains at risk in the event of geopolitical turmoil. We rapidly need geographic diversification of the supply chains of these critical materials to enable accelerating rollout of replacement technologies to retool our energy systems.This extremely detailed, gargantuan report is fascinating reading for how people in industry expect to replace fossil fuels with clean energy sources.Report by International Energy Agency (IEA):“World Energy Outlook 2023”iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/86ede39e-4436-42d7-ba2a-edf61467e070/WorldEnergyOutlook2023.pdfPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Growth, Emissions, and Financing Behind the Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas Industry Paul Beckwith 2024-04-08 | A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) looks at the specifics on size, growth, and financials behind the fossil fuel industry, namely for coal, oil, and natural gas.I chat about some highlights and lowlights in this gargantuan report.A couple surprises, for me at least. Nationally Owned (Fossil Fuel) Companies (NOCs) are responsible for over half of the GHG emissions, and own over 60% of the fossil fuel reserves on the planet. We often scapegoat the so-called “majors” oil companies, however their emissions are only about 13% of the total.In reality, we are often concerned about the high level of fossil fuel subsidies, when the biggest culprit is actually country governments that own “nationalized” oil companies that are culpable for the bulk of global emissions and own the bulk of the fossil fuel reserves. No wonder they do not want to cut production, since they would lose vast taxation revenue and profits.Gargantuan Report:“The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions”iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/f065ae5e-94ed-4fcb-8f17-8ceffde8bdd2/TheOilandGasIndustryinNetZeroTransitions.pdfPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
The Vital Global Importance of Southern Ocean Circulation from the Surface to the Deepest Depths Paul Beckwith 2024-04-07 | I have chatted recently in a number of videos on the vital importance of the Southern Ocean currents at connecting all the oceans of the world, from the surface water to the very deepest depths.I chat about this UN report, or rather a chapter in a UN report on the Southern Oceans. What I really like in this report, and the purpose behind this video, are three illustrations in particular, showing you the main water flow around Antarctica, a cross section of the different water layers, and an excellent illustration that is centered on Antarctica, showing connections between Antarctic Circumpolar Currents to flow in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans from the surface to the deepest depths. Article: “Chapter 36H. Southern Ocean”:un.org/depts/los/global_reporting/WOA_RPROC/Chapter_36H.pdf“The Southern Ocean is the common denomination given to the southern extrema of the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, extending southwards to the Antarctic Continent. Its main oceanographic feature, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), is the world’s only global current, flowing eastwards around Antarctica in a closed circulation with its flow unimpeded by continents. The ACC is today the largest ocean current, and the major means of exchange of water between oceans; it is believed to be the cause of the development of Antarctic continental glaciation by reducing meridional heat transport across the Southern Ocean.The formation of eddies in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has a significant role in the distribution of plankton and in the warming observed in theSouthern Ocean.As with the ACC, the westward-flowing Antarctic Coastal Current, or East Wind Drift (EWD), is wind-driven. These two current systems are connected by a series of gyres and retroflections (e.g., gyres in the Prydz Bay region, in the Weddell Sea, in theBellingshausen Sea)”Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Continuing Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) confirms James Hansen work Paul Beckwith 2024-04-06 | A climate research group CICERO from Oslo Norway (Center for International Climate Research) recently published a paper showing that the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) has increased significantly from 2001 to now, and attributes this increase to reduction of sulphur emissions.This paper importantly confirms the recent work and letters of James Hansen and his research team.New paper press release:Cleanup of air pollution heats the Earthhttps://cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/cleanup-of-air-pollution-heats-the-earth“Recent reductions in emissions of tiny particles, the major cause of air pollution globally, have led to more heat in the Earth’s climate system. This is shown in a new international study led by CICERO and published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.”“Satellite measurements clearly show that more heat is entering the Earth’s atmosphere from the Sun compared to the amount of terrestrial energy escaping to space. This so-called Earth energy imbalance leads to accumulation of heat and warming of the Earth’s surface.It is well known that man-made emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been the major cause of global warming in recent decades, and that emissions of particles have masked part of this warming. Most of the particles, especially sulphate, reflect sunlight and therefore act to cool the planet. In the last couple of decades, however, this cooling effect has reversed and now contributes to a warming due to extensive measures to improve air quality in many regions worldwide.”Peer-reviewed scientific paper:Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalancenature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8.pdf“AbstractThe Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed positive imbalance trend in the previous two decades is inconsistent with internal variability alone and caused by anthropogenic forcing and the resulting climate system response. Here, we investigate anthropogenic contributions to the imbalance trend using climate models forced with observed sea-surface temperatures. We find that the effective radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emission reductions has led to a 0.2 ± 0.1 W m−2 decade−1 strengthening of the 2001–2019 imbalance trend. The multi-model ensemble reproduces the observed imbalance trend of 0.47 ± 0.17 W m−2 decade−1 but with 10-40% underestimation. With most future scenarios showing further rapid reductions of aerosol emissions due to air quality legislation, such emission reductions may continue to strengthen Earth’s energy imbalance, on top of the greenhouse gas contribution. Consequently, we may expect an accelerated surface temperature warming in this decade.”Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Earth at Risk: We’re on the Eve of Destruction… Paul Beckwith 2024-04-05 | A very important paper was released with very important information on humanities “Age of Destruction” to our Earth, and how we can make small steps back from the precipice edge that we are on or have already crossed (like Wily Coyote chasing the Roadrunner).Peer-reviewed scientific paper (open source; free access)Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable futureacademic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/3/4/pgae106/7638480“AbstractHuman development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.”This detail packed review paper by a bevy of distinguished authors does not hold back any punches. Urgent language details how dire our present situation is, and provided a glimmer of hope on what society must do to have any chance of pulling back from the precipice where we are today.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
State of our Climate: New World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Update Report Paul Beckwith 2024-04-02 | Diagnosis: BadPrognosis: WorseEvery year, about this time, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) releases a detailed report updating their analysis in key climate metrics.This years report talks about how almost every essential element of the climate system is severely broken, with new records being set across the board. I chat about the key findings of this report, zeroing in on the graphs and charts, to let you know the grim highlights of our breaking climate/weather systems.Press release link: https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2023Key messages:State of Global Climate report confirms 2023 as hottest year on record by clear marginRecords broken for ocean heat, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice loss and glacier retreatExtreme weather undermines socio-economic developmentRenewable energy transition provides hopeCost of climate inaction is higher than cost of climate actionHere is the link to the full, detailed report:https://library.wmo.int/viewer/68835/?offset=#page=1&viewer=picture&o=bookmark&n=0&q=I noticed that there was zero mention of aerosols and sulphur reduction in marine shipping fuels; in my view this is a huge oversight by the WMO in light of James Hansen’s brilliant work. Mainstream science does not yet accept what Hansen is saying; but I am sure they will confirm it soon, since it is impossible to ignore the harsh truth forever.Some startling tidbits that do appear in the report are the following:Heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones caused misery and mayhem, upending every-day life for millions and inflicting many billions of dollars in economic losses, according to the WMO State of the Global Climate 2023 report.The WMO report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 °Celsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 °C) above the pre-industrial baseline. It was the warmest ten-year period on record.“Sirens are blaring across all major indicators... Some records aren’t just chart-topping, they’re chart-busting. And changes are speeding-up.” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.“Never have we been so close – albeit on a temporary basis at the moment – to the 1.5° C lower limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change.” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The WMO community is sounding the Red Alert to the world.”“Climate change is about much more than temperatures. What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern,” she said.On an average day in 2023, nearly one third of the global ocean was gripped by a marine heatwave, harming vital ecosystems and food systems. Towards the end of 2023, over 90% of the ocean had experienced heatwave conditions at some point during the year.The global set of reference glaciers suffered the largest loss of ice on record (since 1950), driven by extreme melt in both western North America and Europe, according to preliminary data.Antarctic sea ice extent was by far the lowest on record, with the maximum extent at the end of winter at 1 million km2 below the previous record year - equivalent to the size of France and Germany combined.“The climate crisis is THE defining challenge that humanity faces and is closely intertwined with the inequality crisis – as witnessed by growing food insecurity and population displacement, and biodiversity loss” said Celeste Saulo.The number of people who are acutely food insecure worldwide has more than doubled, from 149 million people before the COVID-19 pandemic to 333 million people in 2023 (in 78 monitored countries by the World Food Programme). Weather and climate extremes may not be the root cause, but they are aggravating factors, according to the report.Weather hazards continued to trigger displacement in 2023, showing how climate shocks undermine resilience and create new protection risks among the most vulnerable populations.The State of the Global Climate report was released in time for World Meteorological Day on 23 March. It also sets the scene for a new climate action campaign by the UN Development Programme and WMO to be launched on 21 March. It will inform discussions at a climate ministerial meeting in Copenhagen on 21-22 March.Dozens of experts and partners contribute to the report, including UN organizations, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Global Data and Analysis Centers, as well as Regional Climate Centres, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the Global Cryosphere Watch and Copernicus Climate Change Service operated by ECMWF.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
On the Vital Importance of Southern Ocean Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in our Climate System Paul Beckwith 2024-04-02 | Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.A fascinating peer-reviewed scientific paper was just published on how the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) has changed over the past 5.3 million years. This massive and profoundly important ocean current system transports between 165 and 182 Sverdrup’s of water which is over 100 times more than the combined flow rate of all the rivers on our planet. One Sverdrup is a million cubic meters of water per second, so the ACC is of vital importance for heat flow on our planet.Basically, the ACC flow has increased as our planet continues to warm at accelerated rates.Links:1) Key Ocean Current Contains a Warning on Climate: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2024/03/27/key-ocean-current-contains-a-warning-on-climate/2) Google Earth3) Earth Nullschool4) Where is Point Nemo?: oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nemo.html#:~:text=This%20remote%20oceanic%20location%20is,of%20Antarctica%2C%20to%20the%20south.5) Dynamics of Pacific Antarctic Circumpolar Current: https://iodp.tamu.edu/scienceops/expeditions/dynamics_of_pacific_ACC.html6) ANDRILL (ANtarctic DRILLing Project): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ANDRILL7) Explainer: how the Antarctic Circumpolar Current helps keep Antarctica frozen: theconversation.com/explainer-how-the-antarctic-circumpolar-current-helps-keep-antarctica-frozen-1061648) Open Source Peer Reviewed Scientific Paper: Five million years of Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength variability: nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07143-3.pdf“AbstractThe Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) represents the world’s largest ocean-current system and affects global ocean circulation, climate and Antarctic ice-sheet stability. Today, ACC dynamics are controlled by atmospheric forcing, oceanic density gradients and eddy activity. Whereas palaeoceanographic reconstructions exhibit regional heterogeneity in ACC position and strength over Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, the long-term evolution of the ACC is poorly known. Here we document changes in ACC strength from sediment cores in the Pacific Southern Ocean. We find no linear long-term trend in ACC flow since 5.3 million years ago (Ma), in contrast to global cooling and increasing global ice volume. Instead, we observe a reversal on a million-year timescale, from increasing ACC strength during Pliocene global cooling to a subsequent decrease with further Early Pleistocene cooling. This shift in the ACC regime coincided with a Southern Ocean reconfiguration that altered the sensitivity of the ACC to atmospheric and oceanic forcings. We find ACC strength changesto be closely linked to 400,000-year eccentricity cycles, probably originating from modulation of precessional changes in the South Pacific jet stream linked to tropical Pacific temperature variability. A persistent link between weaker ACC flow, equatorward-shifted opal deposition and reduced atmospheric CO2 during glacial periods first emerged during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). The strongest ACC flow occurred during warmer-than-present intervals of the Plio-Pleistocene, providing evidence of potentially increasing ACC flow with future climate warming.”Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Crucial Update on Global Warming Acceleration by James Hansen and his pals Paul Beckwith 2024-03-29 | Crucial Global Warming Update by James Hansen and his pals…
Melting Polar Ice Caps Slows Down Earth’s Rotation Making Days Longer, Messes with Global UTC Time Paul Beckwith 2024-03-29 | We know that ongoing acceleration of global warming is melting polar ice caps more quickly. When the polar ice (located close to the Earth’s axis of rotation) melts, the meltwater distributes over the global oceans, raising sea levels but also increasing the so-called Moment of Inertia (I) of the Earth system (sorry to remind you of your high school physics). Since Angular Momentum (L) is conserved, and we calculate L = I times omega, as I increases then omega (angular frequency of Earth, which is tangential velocity times distance to axis of rotation) must decrease. Thus, melting polar ice caps slows down Earth’s rotation rate. This slowing down makes days longer, and we must compensate our global timekeeping of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) by periodic discontinuous additions of “one leap second” every few years. Because of accelerated ice melt, we will need to remove “one leap second” in 2029; 3 years later than would be needed if polar ice melt was not accelerating.Climate change really does have profound effects on our planet.Why the figure skater? Well, we are like her when her arms and legs are tight to her body axis of spin. Melting polar ice caps is putting mass further from the spin axis, analogous to her putting her arms and a leg outward, slowing down the spin rate, making a complete revolution take longer.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
How AMOC Slowdown over Recent Decades has Likely Prevented an Arctic Blue-Ocean Event from Happening Paul Beckwith 2024-03-27 | I chat about a vital, must read peer-reviewed scientific paper linked here:The Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Diminishes Recent Arctic Sea Ice Lossagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929#:~:text=To%20summarize%2C%20our%20results%20suggest,during%20the%20past%20four%20decades.I mentioned this paper near the end of my last video; but this paper importance clearly merits a full video and discussion.“AbstractThe Arctic sea ice has been rapidly dwindling over the past four decades, significantly impacting the Arctic region and beyond. During the same period, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was also found in a declining trend. Here we investigate the role of the AMOC in the recent Arctic sea ice changes by comparing simulations from the Community Climate System Model version 4 with decelerated and stationary AMOCs under anthropogenic climate change. We find that the weakened AMOC can slow down the decline rates of Arctic sea ice area and volume by 36% and 22% between 1980 and 2020, respectively. The decelerated ocean circulation causes a reduction of northward Atlantic heat transport and hence a general interior ocean cooling in the Arctic Mediterranean, which helps alleviate the Arctic sea ice loss primarily through thermodynamic processes occurring at the base of the sea ice.Key PointsThis study clarifies the AMOC's impact on Arctic sea ice by using the CCSM4 climate model simulations with weakened and stationary AMOCsThe weakened AMOC could decelerate the Arctic sea ice area and volume loss by 36% and 22% during 1980 and 2020, respectivelyDetailed sea ice volume budgets shows weakened AMOC promotes ice growth at base, aided by thermodynamic process”Bottom line: “We find that the weakened AMOC can slow down the decline rates of Arctic sea ice area and volume by 36% and 22% between 1980 and 2020, respectively.”I think that AMOC slowing over recent decades has prevented us from having the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE). If the AMOC strength had stayed constant, I think that we would live in a world with many BOE’s occurring on a regular, maybe yearly basis.Moving forward, we may see a BOE followed by AMOC spin-down and a deep freeze Arctic with strengthened zonal jet streams with less waviness. Or if the AMOC slowdown passes a threshold in its spin-down decline first, the Arctic would chill and a BOE would be indefinitely postponed.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
How North Atlantic Ocean Warming, Increasing Saltiness and Dropping Density All Risk AMOC Shutdown Paul Beckwith 2024-03-27 | I often talk about how large Arctic temperature amplification we are experiencing risks a near term Blue-Ocean Event, and further slowing of the jet streams. Increased waviness of the jet streams increases the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events, plus they are happening in regions they never happened before.But….If the AMOC slows faster, and exceeds a threshold causing an AMOC shutdown (actually rewiring to lower latitudes) the Arctic will quickly cool and the jet streams will quickly strengthen and Europe goes into a deep freeze. No Blue Ocean event for a long time. It’s like the climate system is a finely tuned Swiss watch, and we hit it with a sledge hammer. Everything changes and the system is highly nonlinear so strange things happen.Where we end up all depends on which part of the climate system breaks first. And it is breaking.In this video, I chat about a recent paper that divides the North Atlantic Ocean into 5 different sections (boxes) and examines temperature, salinity, density, and ocean currents over 5 to 6 decades within each section, and within the overall North Atlantic Ocean. By examining these so-called ocean fingerprints, the hope is that we can see how quickly changes are occurring, and how long it might take before the AMOC fails, and what I call “the mother of all tipping points” is triggered.Exciting times…LinksStudy Documents Slowing of Atlantic Ocean Currentsphys.org/news/2024-03-documents-atlantic-currents.htmlEarth NullSchoolearth.nullschool.netMaryland Todayhttps://today.umd.edu/study-documents-atlantic-currents-slowingWorld Ocean Databasencei.noaa.gov/products/world-ocean-databaseWorld Ocean Atlasncei.noaa.gov/products/world-ocean-atlasncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-atlas-2018fMain Peer-reviewed paperRevisiting the multidecadal variability of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climatefrontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulationnature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w.pdfThe Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Diminishes Recent Arctic Sea Ice Lossagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929#:~:text=To%20summarize%2C%20our%20results%20suggest,during%20the%20past%20four%20decades.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem
Approaching the Collapse Threshold: Extreme Melting and Instability Measured in NE Greenland Glacier Paul Beckwith 2024-03-26 | A significant study on the so-called 79NG (79 degrees latitude North Greenland) coastal glacier was just released, in an open source peer-reviewed paper.General news-release article: phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.htmlPeer-reviewed scientific paper article:tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdfGround based on-ice measurements, airborne survey measurements, and satellite measurements are verified against each other, and show how fast this 79NG glacier is thinning, moving, and melting. This glacier is quickly withering away due to the onslaught of extremely high air temperatures melting the surface of the glacier creating numerous glacial lakes on the surface, which are drilling through the ice draining the water to the bedrock below and into the ocean. Just as significant for the ice melt, the warming oceans below are greatly accelerating the basal ice melt (ice at the bottom of the floating parts of the glacier in contact with ocean water). In fact, near the center line longitudinal cross section of the ice, a 500 meter high cavity has been melted into the bottom of the glacier, and this cavity of upside down crevice has come to within 190 meter of the glacier surface. When it penetrates through the surface, the glacier will likely cleave into two parts, and what often happens is the whole thing shatters into a multitude of smaller pieces that quickly cascade out into the ocean and quickly melt out.Overall, the thickness of the glacier has decreased by 160 meters, but that is outside of the 500 meter cavity region, but it seems to me that the ice over the cavity region is by far the weakest spot or Achilles Heel of the whole thing.Not good…What do with expect, with fossil fuel production at record highs, and at record acceleration rates? We need to expect chaos.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Play Around with Earth NullSchool to Become a Weather and Climate Expert Paul Beckwith 2024-03-24 | How to win friends and stifle climate deniers?Learn to literally play around with the Earth Nullschool website tool. Zoom around the Earth from the surface to the farthest reaches of the stratosphere, either in the present near real-time (3 hour delay) or ten years ago. Go back in time to the location of your favourite place when it was hit by that nasty storm, and see how that storm actually originated, strengthened, and moved into your life; see if it was really as bad as you remember, or if you were just in the wrong place at the wrong time (or right time, if you happen to be a storm chaser).Learn about wind speeds, large scale weather patterns, air pressures and temperatures at different heights in the atmosphere, and see how jet streams look broken, fractured, and slowed in today’s climate system. Visit the world’s oceans and lakes and rivers and see Sea Surface Temperatures and temperature anomalies (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) that are literally off-the-charts this year).I teach you this and much more within my video. You can quite literally learn a lot and become well on your way to becoming a meteorologist, climate scientist, and oceanographer, all wrapped into one!Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
How does our Climate System Evolve as the AMOC Shuts Down? Paul Beckwith 2024-03-20 | In my next to last video (not the Newton one:) I talked about the profound slowdown of Antarctica Bottom Water (AABW) recharge, weakening the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) system of the global oceans. In this video I revisit the key peer-reviewed scientific papers of Antarctica changes, and then expand this to additional research on the Southern Hemisphere Meridional Overturning Circulation, and then connect it to the northern hemispheric AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation). I ask the simple question: how does the system change when the AMOC shuts down?We don’t have all the answers, but we have some. Essentially the Northern regions go into a deep freeze (coastal Norway drops 20C), sea ice extends to Ireland, the tropics heat up a huge amount, the Walker Circulation strengthens, so we lose El Niño’s and get many more La Niña’s. Everything changes, and we have trouble growing enough food for the planet. Reference 15 is the key paper: if you read only one this is the one!!Links:1) Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes: nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01695-4.pdf2) Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin: nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8.pdf3) Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century: nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf4) Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023: researchgate.net/publication/378403026_Large-scale_drivers_of_the_exceptionally_low_winter_Antarctic_sea_ice_extent_in_20235) Impacts of recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Extremes: agu.confex.com/agu/OSM24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/14856676) Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice: journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/37/7/JCLI-D-23-0479.1.pdf7) Thermohaline circulation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation8) The Global Conveyor Belt: oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/05conveyor2.html9) The Thermohaline Ocean CirculationA Brief Fact Sheet - by Stefan Rahmstorf: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.html10) Thermohaline Ocean Circulation: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/rahmstorf_eqs_2006.pdf11) Slowdown of the Motion of the Ocean: climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3266/slowdown-of-the-motion-of-the-ocean12) Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00727-3.pdf13) Southern Ocean overturning circulation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean_overturning_circulation14)The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change: link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7.pdf15) Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation:researchgate.net/profile/Andrea-Taschetto/publication/361134395_Interbasin_and_interhemispheric_impacts_of_a_collapsed_Atlantic_Overturning_Circulation/links/633621dc76e39959d6857360/Interbasin-and-interhemispheric-impacts-of-a-collapsed-Atlantic-Overturning-Circulation.pdf?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QiLCJwYWdlIjoicHVibGljYXRpb25Eb3dubG9hZCIsInByZXZpb3VzUGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QifX0Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
As Antarctic Blue Ocean Approaches, Global Ocean Circulation System Weakens Paul Beckwith 2024-03-17 | Up until 2014, Antarctic Sea Ice Area exhibited a slow yearly increase. Then the system broke. Since then, there have been three years of record low sea ice and two years of very high sea ice; basically variability or whiplashing has more than doubled.The major problem for the global climate is that with record low sea ice formation and record low sea ice area circumventing Antarctica, there is much less dense water created from salt rejection as sea ice forms. Thus, less water sinks to the abyss, in fact over 30% less in the Weddell Sea; thus formation of Antarctica Bottom Water (AABW) is reduced about 15%. This slows the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (Global MOC) and has profound effects on global climate stability.Very serious indeed. There are also many problems local to Antarctica as well, such as enhanced wave action erosion (melting) and calving of ice sheets, disruptions to phytoplankton, mass mortality of emperor penguins, to name a few. However, by far the most profound and far-reaching problem is the MOC reduction and global climate instability, with cascading feedbacks much more likely.Most important articles discussed in this video:“There are growing fears of an alarming shift in Antarctic sea ice”: newscientist.com/article/2421376-there-are-growing-fears-of-an-alarming-shift-in-antarctic-sea-ice“Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes”:Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon sequestrations on multidecadal to millennial timescales. The Weddell Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea Deep Water and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water that form on the continental shelves via sea-ice production. Here we report an observed 30% reduction of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume since 1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is probably driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense-water production over southern continental shelf associated with a greater than 40% decline in the sea-ice formation rate…”: nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01695-4.pdf“Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater”: nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-w“Extensive melting of West Antarctic ice sheet now looks unavoidable”: newscientist.com/article/2398913-extensive-melting-of-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-now-looks-unavoidable“Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century”: …We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability...”: nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf“Emperor penguin colonies lost all their chicks due to ice breakup”: newscientist.com/article/2388401-emperor-penguin-colonies-lost-all-their-chicks-due-to-ice-breakup“Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023”: frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2024.1333706“Impacts of recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Extremes”: agu.confex.com/agu/OSM24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1485667“Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice”: In recent years, the Southern Ocean has experienced extremely low sea ice cover in multiple summers. These low events were preceded by a multidecadal positive trend that culminated in record high ice coverage in 2014. This abrupt transition has led some authors to suggest that Antarctic sea ice has undergone a regime shift… We find that the standard deviation of the summer sea ice record has doubled from 0.31 million km2 in 1979–2006 to 0.76 million km2 for 2007–22. This increased variance is accompanied by a longer season-to-season sea ice memory. The atmosphere is the primary driver of Antarctic sea ice variability, but using a linear predictive model we show that sea ice changes cannot be explained by the atmosphere alone. Identifying whether a regime shift has occurred is difficult without a complete understanding of the physical mechanism of change. However, the statistical changes that we demonstrate (i.e., increased variance and autocor- relation, and a changed response to atmospheric forcing), as well as the increased spatial coherence noted by previous re- search, are indicators based on dynamical systems theory of an abrupt critical transition. Thus, our analysis is further evidence in support of a changed Antarctic sea ice system.”:journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/37/7/JCLI-D-23-0479.1.pdfPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Expect an Arctic Blue-Ocean and Marine Heat Waves Any Year Now Paul Beckwith 2024-03-14 | Many years ago, I originated the phrase “Blue-Ocean Event” for an essentially ice-free Arctic.We can expect to see this any year now. As there is less and less sea-ice in the Arctic, there are now more and more “Marine Heat Waves” MHW events occurring along the outer edges of the Arctic Ocean, expanding in size to deeper waters, extending to longer and longer durations (103 days in 2020), and increasing to hotter and hotter Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) (4C in 2020).I chat about the most recent science on the Arctic Sea Ice and these Arctic Marine Heat Waves.More information on articles and peer reviewed papers; all open source…1) “The Arctic could become 'ice-free' within a decade, say scientists”phys.org/news/2024-03-arctic-ice-free-decade-scientists.html2) “Frequent marine heat waves in the Arctic Ocean will be the norm, says new study”phys.org/news/2024-02-frequent-marine-arctic-ocean-norm.html3) “Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean”nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00515-9.pdf“AbstractObserved Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area less than 1 million km2). In this Review, we synthesize understanding of the timing and regional variability of such an ice-free Arctic. In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067), with emission trajectories determining how often and for how long the Arctic could be ice free. Specifically, there is potential for ice-free conditions in May–January and August–October by 2100 under a high-emission and low-emission scenario, respectively. In all cases, sea ice losses begin in the European Arctic, proceed to the Pacific Arctic and end in the Central Arctic, if becoming ice free at all. Future research must assess the impact of model selection and recalibration on projections, and assess the drivers of internal variability that can cause early ice-free conditions.”4) “Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt”nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01215-y.pdf“AbstractSince 2007, unprecedented marine heatwave events are occurring over the Arctic Ocean. Here we identify the fraction of the likelihood of Arctic marine heatwaves magnitude that is attributable to greenhouse gas forcing. Results reveal that Arctic marine heatwaves are primarily triggered by an abrupt sea-ice retreat, which coincides with the maximum downward radiative fluxes. Up to 82% of the sea surface temperature variability over the shallow Arctic marginal seas, where marine heatwaves are prone to occur, can be explained by net accumulation of seasonal surface heat flux in the ocean. Event attribution analysis demonstrates that the 103-day long 2020 event – the most intense (4 ∘C) recorded so far in the Arctic – would be exceptionally unlikely in the absence of greenhouse gas forcing in terms of both intensity and duration. Our further results imply that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, along with the expansion of first-year ice extent, moderate marine heatwaves in the Arctic will very likely persistently reoccur.”Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Shocking Global Temperature Extremes Show an Out of Control Climate Paul Beckwith 2024-03-12 | In this video, I teach you how to access and examine climate datasets using very simple-to-use tools provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) free tools.Learn how to impress your friends by expertly showing them climate datasets at the touch of a few buttons. I also chat about the Copernicus summary article on what happened globally in February-2024 and also in our Boreal Winter (also called Meteorological Winter), namely Dec-Jan-Feb. I also chat about an awesome article by Bill McGuire on climate scientists anguish and terror.Here are the relevant links:1 — “SCIENTIST TERRIFIED BY HOW THE CLIMATE IS FALLING APART”: futurism.com/the-byte/scientist-terrified-climate-falling-apart2 — “Copernicus: February 2024 was globally the warmest on record – Global Sea Surface Temperatures at record high”: https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-february-2024-was-globally-warmest-record-global-sea-surface-temperatures-record-high3 — Copernicus Climate Pulse tool: https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/4 — Copernicus Climate Atlas tool: https://atlas.climate.copernicus.eu/atlasPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem
Shocking Winter Warmth in North America Blows Away Previous Records Paul Beckwith 2024-03-11 | For the meteorological winter (December 2023 - January 2024 - February 2024) in North America, warming was quite literally shocking.In this video I chat about how both the US and Canada had record warmth by an extremely large margin.For the USA:“February 2024The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. last month was 41.1 degrees F, 7.2 degrees F above the 20th-century average and ranking as the third-warmest February in NOAA’s 130-year climate record…Meteorological winter (December 2023 – February 2024) | Year-to-dateMeteorological winter was the warmest winter on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature of 37.6 degrees F — 5.4 degrees above average.”Converting to Celsius, Feb was 4 C above average, and Dec-Jan-Feb was 3 C above average.Links: noaa.gov/news/us-had-its-warmest-winter-on-recordncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202402For Canada: “This past winter, however, was 5.2 degrees above the norm, breaking the old record by more than a full degree -- "as much of a difference as you'd ever find in climate," Phillips said, adding that a tenth of a degree is usually considered significant.”“The country's records in this realm stretch back to 1948. The previous warmest winter in that more than three quarters of a century was in 2009-2010, a season 4.1 degrees above the historic norm.”Link:thestar.com/news/canada/these-are-numbers-are-just-wow-this-winter-was-warmest-in-canadian-records-by-a/article_12cbce98-dd7e-11ee-a1da-7b7004389e4f.htmlThus, Canada’s record warming was 5.2C above average, while the US warming was 3C above average.Please recall that Arctic temperature amplification means that high latitudes are warming much faster than lower latitudes, so clearly Canadian warming blows away US warming, by a ratio of 5.2 to 3With these extremely warm temperatures in North America all winter, it caused the ice cover percentage over the Great Lakes to reach a record low of 2.7% in early February.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
On the State of the Oceans: Copernicus Report Paul Beckwith 2024-03-11 | I chat about the highlights of a report published a few months ago on the oceans by “The Copernicus Marine Service” group which is part of the European satellite monitoring Copernicus network. A wide variety of topics on oceans with a European bent is covered.Report Links:https://marine.copernicus.eu/access-data/ocean-state-report/ocean-state-report-7https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/release-eu-copernicus-ocean-state-report-7“The 7th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR 7) and summary published in 2023 provides information on changes and variations in the ocean over the past decades, with a focus on changes in the marine environment particularly during the year 2021. Using observation-based (remote sensing, in situ) and ocean reanalysis data, the OSR provides a comprehensive 4-dimensional (latitude, longitude, depth, and time) analysis of the Blue, Green, and White Ocean. The OSR is intended to act as a reference, providing a unique ocean monitoring dashboard for the scientific community and for policy makers and others with decision-making responsibilities. The OSR7 is a testament to international collaboration, with more than 80 participants from over 30 institutions spanning 14 countries making significant contributions. This diversity of expertise and experience enriches the report's insights and perspectives.”Topics that are covered by peer-reviewed papers in the report include:— Introduction to the 7th edition of the Copernicus Ocean State Report (OSR7)— Evaluation of operational ocean forecasting systems from the perspective of the users and the experts— Comparing global trends in marine cold spells and marine heatwaves using reprocessed satellite data— South Atlantic overturning and heat transport variations in ocean reanalyses and observation-based estimates— Satellite monitoring of surface phytoplankton functional types in the Atlantic Ocean over 20 years (2002–2021)— The dynamical role of upper layer salinity in the Mediterranean Sea— Baltic Sea freshwater content— High-frequency radar-derived coastal upwelling index— Ocean heat content in the Iberian–Biscay–Ireland regional seas— Dissolved oxygen as an indicator of multiple drivers of the marine ecosystem: the southern Adriatic Sea case study— Characterization of the organic vs. inorganic fraction of suspended particulate matter in coastal waters based on ocean color radiometry remote sensing— Recent changes in extreme wave events in the south-western South Atlantic— Unusual coccolithophore blooms in Scottish waters— Recent variations in oceanic transports across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge— Intense wind-driven coastal upwelling in the Balearic Islands in response to Storm Blas (November 2021)Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on climate system mayhem.
The Inexorable Rise of Fossil Fuel Production Despite Empty Promises Paul Beckwith 2024-03-08 | Despite promises to reduce fossil fuel production, the inexorable rise continues.I chat about a so-called “Production Gap” UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program) report that was published for the last COP climate conference.“The Production Gap Report — first launched in 2019 — tracks the discrepancy between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C (there already) or 2°C (there in 15 years). (My comments in brackets).”“The 2023 Production Gap Report: “Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises” finds that governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.“The Report provides newly expanded country profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. These profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy and financial support for fossil fuel production.“We cannot address climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: fossil fuel dependence. COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas — that its end is inevitable. We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency, while ensuring a just, equitable transition’’ said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.”Report Summary: unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023Executive Summary: “The Production Gap — Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises”: productiongap.orgDetailed Report PDF of 126 pages: productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/PGR2023_web_rev.pdf“Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.”“Taken together, government plans and projections would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050. This conflicts with government commitments under the Paris Agreement, and clashes with expectations that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak within this decade even without new policies.”“Governments play a central role in setting the direction of future fossil fuel production. State-owned entities control half of global production for oil and gas and over half for coal. Governments’ existing targets, policies, and support for fossil fuel production help to influence, legitimize, and enable continued investments in domestic and international fossil fuel projects, which are undermining the transition to renewable energy and global climate mitigation efforts.At the same time, many fossil fuel projects planned and under development are now at risk of becoming stranded assets as the world decarbonizes and global demand for coal, oil, and gas are expected to peak and decline within this decade, even without additional policies.”“Given risks and uncertainties of CCS and CDR, countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum. The potential failure of these measures to become sufficiently viable at scale, the non-climatic near-term harms of fossil fuels, and other lines of evidence, call for an even more rapid global phase-out of all fossil fuels.”Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Underfinanced and Underprepared: The Climate Adaptation Gap Paul Beckwith 2024-03-04 | In this video I chat about the recent UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program) report titled “Underfinanced. Underprepared. Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptationleaves world exposed”Report Summary: unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023Full PDF report: wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43796/adaptation_gap_report_2023.pdf?sequence=3“In 2023, temperature records toppled, while storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves caused devastation. UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared – Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed finds that progress on climate adaptation is slowing when it should be accelerating to catch up with these rising climate change impacts. ““The report – which looks at progress in planning, financing and implementing adaptation actions – finds that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10-18 times as big as international public finance flows. This is over 50 per cent higher than the previous range estimate. The modelled costs of adaptation in developing countries are estimated at US$215 billion per year this decade. The adaptation finance needed to implement domestic adaptation priorities is estimated at US$387 billion per year. Despite these needs, public multilateral and bilateral adaptation finance flows to developing countries declined by 15 per cent to US$21 billion in 2021. As a result of the growing adaptation finance needs and faltering flows, the current adaptation finance gap is now estimated at US$194-366 billion per year. At the same time, adaptation planning and implementation appear to be plateauing. This failure to adapt has massive implications for losses and damages, particularly for the most vulnerable. This report identifies seven ways to increase financing, including through domestic expenditure and international and private sector finance. Additional avenues include remittances, increasing and tailoring finance to Small and Medium Enterprises and a reform of the global financial architecture. The new Loss and Damage fund will also need to move towards more innovative financing mechanisms to reach the necessary scale of investment.”“Executive summaryDespite the clear signs of accelerating climate risksand impacts worldwide, the adaptation finance gap is widening and now stands at between US$194 billion and US$366 billion per year. Adaptation finance needs are 10–18 times as great as current international public adaptation finance flows – at least 50 per cent higher than previously estimated.This is the main conclusion of a comprehensive assessment of the literature and new analyses to provide updated estimates of the costs and needs of adaptation in developing countries, as well as the international finance flows required to address these needs. The report also provides updates on adaptation planning and implementation and concludes that global progress on adaptation is slowing rather than showing the urgently needed acceleration. In view of ever-increasing weather extremes such as a multi-year drought in East Africa, flooding in China and Europe, and extreme heat and wildfires in the United States of America and Canada, among others, narrowing theadaptation finance gap is of particular importance because of the high benefits that investments in adaptation can offer in terms of reducing climate risks and improving equity and climate justice. Left unchecked however, increasing climate risks will inevitably lead to more climate-related lossesand damages. Therefore, the Adaptation Gap Report 2023 (AGR 2023) also focuses on loss and damage to support Parties in the negotiations following the decision at the twenty-seventh session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 27) in Sharm El-Sheikh to establish a loss and damage fund and funding arrangements for vulnerabledeveloping countries.”Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Like a Broken Record: Both Warming and Emissions Accelerate Like There’s No Tomorrow Paul Beckwith 2024-03-02 | Near the end of each year, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) publishes a report on the emissions gap, which is the widening gap between global emissions and where we need to be, and each year global warming accelerates.We are really playing a fools game.Report: “Emissions Gap Report 2023Broken RecordTemperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)”Link to executive summary: unep.org/interactives/emissions-gap-report/2023Link to PDF of the Final Report: newclimate.org/sites/default/files/2023-11/EGR2023.pdfKey Messages from Report 1. Global GHG emissions set new record of 57.4 GtCO2e in 20222. Current and historical emissions are highly unequally distributed within and among countries, reflecting global patterns of inequality3. There has been negligible movement on NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) since COP 27, but some progress in NDCs and policies since the Paris Agreement was adopted4. The number of net-zero pledges continues to increase, but confidence in their implementation remains low5. The emissions gap in 2030 remains high: current unconditional NDCs imply a 14 GtCO2e gap for a 2°C goal and a 22 GtCO2e gap for the 1.5°C goal. The additional implementation of the conditional NDCs reduces these estimates by 3 GtCO2e6. Action in this decade will determine the ambition required in the next round of NDCs for 2035, and the feasibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement7. If current policies are continued, global warming is estimated to be limited to 3°C. Delivering on all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030 lowers this estimate to 2.5°C, with the additional fulfilment of all net-zero pledges bringing it to 2°C8. The failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income countries and to prevent further emissions growth in low- and middle-income countries implies that all countries must urgently accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon transformations to achieve the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement9. Low- and middle-income countries face substantial economic and institutional challenges in low-carbon energy transitions, but can also exploit opportunities10. Further delay of stringent global GHG emissions reductions will increase future reliance on CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) to meet the long-term temperature goal of the Paris AgreementIn a nutshell, this UN report documents the gap between emissions and what is needed to slow, let alone halt accelerated global warming from the United Nations perspective. I am bringing it to your attention, but as you and I both know, things are much worse than depicted, and worsening at an accelerating rate. The UN has slowly realized that we need to remove carbon from the atmosphere and the oceans (CDR). What they do not yet realize is that we also need to utilize large scale Solar Radiation Management (SRM) to cool the planet, but I am guessing they will eventually come to this point of view, hopefully sooner rather than laterPlease donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Human Health and Resilience to the Onslaught of Abrupt Climate System Disruption Paul Beckwith 2024-02-28 | I chat about the recent report by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) titled: “2023 STATE OFCLIMATE SERVICES — HEALTH”: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/207468d3-5f52-4704-bbd9-50781f5225f6/1335_WMO-Climate-services-Health_web_en.pdfKey messages In this report that I discuss in my video include most of the following:“The world is warming at a faster rate than at any point in recorded history. Climate change undermines health determinants and increases pressures on health systems, thereby threatening to reverse decades of progress to promote human health and well-being, particularly in the most vulnerable communities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes, with very high confidence, that future health risks of injury, disease and death will increase due to more intense and frequent temperature extremes, cyclones, storms, floods, droughts and wildfires. It is anticipated that over 50% of the excess mortality resulting from climate change by the year 2050 will occur in Africa.Health protection is a priority in almost all countries and requires high-quality information to better inform decision-making. The majority of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) prioritize the health sector. To systematically and effectively address the challenges presented by climate variability and change, the health sector needs to ensure that climate information and services inform national assessments and policies. Climate information and services are fundamental for better understanding how and when health systems and population health can be impacted by climate extremes and a changing climate, and for managing climate-related risks. Tailored climate products and services can enhance the evidence and information available to health sector partners to detect, monitor, predict and manage climate-related health risks. Examples of where health sector partners are successfully using climate information and services are illustrated in the Case studies.There is huge potential for enhancing the benefits of climate science and climate services for health. Despite examples of success, data shows that the health sector is underutilizing available climate knowledge and tools. At the same time, climate services need to be further enhanced to fully satisfy the health sector requirements. While 74% of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) provide climate data to health actors, the uptake into mainstreamed health decision tools is limited, with just 23% of Ministries of Health having a health surveillance system that utilizesmeteorological information to monitor climate-sensitive health risks. Data from WMO shows that only 31% of NMHSs provide climate services at a “full” or “advanced” level of capacity, where co-production and tailoring most often happen. This reflects a significant capacity gap to be filled in order to increase the role that NMHSs can play in supporting the health sector.Extreme heat causes the greatest mortality of all extreme weather, yet heat warning services are provided to health decision makers in only half of the affected countries. Extreme heat services are expected to rapidly increase by 2027 under the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative. The impacts of extreme heat and heatwaves are underestimated, as heat-related mortality could be 30 times higher than current estimates. Between 2000 and 2019, estimated deaths due to heat were approximately 489 000 per year, with a particularly high burden in Asia (45%) and Europe (36%).5Every year poor air quality is responsible for millions of premature deaths and is the fourth biggest killer by health risk factor. Concerns relating to air quality, climate change and health are interlinked. Climate mitigation action leading to reducing air pollution can save lives. Despite this, only 2% of climate finance commitments made by internationaldevelopment funders in developing and emerging countries is explicitly aimed at tackling air pollution (in 2015–2021).There is insufficient investment to improve the capabilities of the health sector and related climate services to deploy research and integrated systems for effective climate adaptation and mitigation related decision-making. This leaves the health sector ill-prepared to safeguard the most vulnerable. Currently, just 0.2% of total bilateral and multilateral adaptation finance supports projects that identify health as the primary focus. There is insufficient investment for developing human resource and operational capacities and the systems needed to provide decision support for local adaptation and mitigation.To fully harness the potential of climate services for health, transformational change in institutional development and integration across the health and climate sectors are needed.Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Overshoot: Can we Claw Our Way Back? Paul Beckwith 2024-02-27 | In 1980 William R. Catton Jr. wrote a very famous, classic book called “Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Evolutionary Change”: books.google.com/books/about/Overshoot.html?id=_e-Q56mT6k4CThis incredibly important, yet often ignored treasure talks about many crucial concepts:Carrying Capacity: Maximum Permanently Supportable LoadCornucopian Myth: Euphoric Belief in Limitless ResourcesDrawdown: Stealing Resources from the FutureCargoism: Delusion that Technology will Always Save Us in TimeOvershoot: Growth Beyond an Area’s Carrying Capacity, Leading to…Crash: Die-OffRecently, the CCAG (Climate Crisis Advisory Group) published a report titled “TheOvershoot: Crossing the 1.50C threshold – and finding our way back” which I chat about in this video. Link: static1.squarespace.com/static/60ccae658553d102459d11ed/t/6564b3bd04d4bc1ad1245653/1701098431626/The+Overshoot+-digital.pdfLike most reports, by the time they are published they are already out of date because global warming continues to accelerate in a highly nonlinear fashion. However the report does contain lots of informative insights, and is well worth reading.Essentially, it argues that we are in serious overshoot, and considers whether or not it may be possible to claw our way back?Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
