Is Russias Nuclear Weapons Arsenal Broken? William Spaniel 2024-10-17 | Is Russias Nuclear Weapons Arsenal Broken?
How Winter Might Be Ukraines Ally William Spaniel 2022-12-14 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Much of the public discourse regarding winter and the war suggests that the change in weather will hurt Ukraine's chances by giving Russia more time to regroup. Russia indeed will benefit from that, but the overall relationship is not so simple. Freezing temperatures and snow will give Ukraine an upper hand on other dimensions. Ultimately, we may come to see winter as Ukraine's ally.0:00 Winter in Ukraine1:59 War Is a Political Decision3:06 Winning Is Zero Sum3:59 Conventional Wisdom: Winter Helps Russia7:02 Winter Does Not Freeze Conflict10:01 How Winter Can Facilitate Conflict12:53 Rotating Units15:45 Supply Logistics17:37 The Crimean Bridge18:59 Military Discipline22:16 Infrastructure Bombing23:34 German Support25:26 Misplay of the Week: Sam Bankman-FriedMedia licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From US Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/15804446250flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/2299510207flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/2299510413flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/32390502822flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/38833080225flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4109619470flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/50958595723Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/albums/72157669101607269flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/albums/72157690042292152flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/albums/72157691847212164flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/albums/72157691991554371flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344722824flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26503792443flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26559938300flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26559938850flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26855856402flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/27283981965flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/40131149651Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):From Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-B15500From RIA Novosti:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#2564Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:http://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2017/01/12/ukrainski-desantniki-yaki-zahishhayut-peredovi-poziczii-v-naselenomu-punkti-piski-mayut-dvorichnij-dosvid-uchasti-u-bojovih-diyah/https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/29/na-harkivshhyni-vidkopaly-vorozhi-tanky-j-peredaly-na-potreby-zsu/From Kyiv City:https://kyivcity.gov.ua/photo/ItemImage_50_dniv_aktivnogo_sprotivu_okupantu_mriya_nikoli_ne_pomre_foto__kmda_oleksiy_samsonov/From Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381https://rosavtodor.gov.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/36321https://rosavtodor.gov.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/42771From Kremlin.ru:http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/13424http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62224http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62248http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62249http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62254http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/62560http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/68155http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69578http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69956http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70029http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70067http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70075Media licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/):From Mediazona:https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/24/marriedanddrafted
Why Protests in Russia, China, and Iran Will Be Hard to Stop William Spaniel 2022-12-08 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)If there was a single unifying element in world politics for 2022, it was protests. They are currently major news stories in China and Iran, they have been floating in the background of Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, and they have occurred sporadically in other countries throughout the world. This video explains why autocratic governments especially fear protests and what that means for the key countries in question.0:00 2022 Protests1:06 Protests in Russia3:55 Protests in Iran5:08 Protests in China6:48 Negotiating with Protestors9:16 Commitment Problems13:31 Democratic Advantages15:09 Autocratic Survival Strategies18:30 The Iran Deal22:27 Zelensky Throws Shade22:51 Misplay of the Week: Pedro CastilloMedia licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0):By Peru's Ministry of Defense:flickr.com/photos/ministeriodedefensaperu/52378218977By Hamed Saber:flickr.com/photos/44124425616flickr.com/photos/hamed/3630995581By Matt Hrkac:flickr.com/photos/matthrkac/52394248943Media licensed under CC BY 3.0 Brazil (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/deed.en):By agenciabrasil.gov.br:http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/media/imagens/2009/11/23/1904JC8826.jpg/viewMedia licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0):By Ввласенко:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%84%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD_02_%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_2014_%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%97%D0%B2.JPGMedia licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):From Kremlin.ru:http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/49433http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52211http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53410http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54979http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55308http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55980http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57701http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/59761http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/60669http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/60673http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/60683http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/60706http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/60753http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/60757http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/62039http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/62560http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63054http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65940http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67364http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67608http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/68155http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69636http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69397http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70033http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70040From khamenei.ir:https://english.khamenei.ir/photo/3211/China-s-President-met-with-Ayatollah-Khameneihttps://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=40427https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=40822https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=49880https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50117https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50372https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50541https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50654https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50659https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50745https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=51249https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=51366https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=51413Media licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0):From Mediazona:https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/24/marriedanddraftedFrom Darafsh:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Amir_Kabir_University_uprising_September_2022_(3).jpg
The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea William Spaniel 2022-12-01 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Retaking Crimea has long been the goal for Ukraine. But why does Ukraine seem optimistic about its chances? The way that Russia has fought the war so far suggests that its position in Crimea is weaker than it might seem.0:00 The Crimean Crisis2:28 The Sevastopol Naval Base5:02 Crimea's Demographic Challenges9:13 Ukraine's Optimism10:00 NATO Expansion as a Cause of War?13:04 Separatist Regions as a Cause of War?14:50 A Crimean Disaster?19:21 Ukraine's Upcoming TacticsMedia licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Office of the President of Ukraine:youtube.com/watch?v=391z2Of6uxIhttps://www.president.gov.ua/news/zustrich-tristoronnoyi-kontaktnoyi-grupi-u-minsku-dala-strim-55809https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/vizit-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-institucij-yes-i-nato-u-bryusse-2953From Government of Ukraine:https://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/21782/vistup-prezidenta-ukrajini-na-plenarnomu-zasidanni-samitu-initsiativi-shidne-partnerstvo.htmlFrom Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381https://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/327721From Kremlin.ru:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/photos/2008/04/163135.shtmlhttp://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/7514http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20604http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/45930http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50140http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52603http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53103http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/59725http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/59761http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/60229http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/60740http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/60829http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/62560http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/62878http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/62933http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66191http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67829http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68097http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/68155http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69636http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69918Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):From Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=N+1603+Bild-121Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo):From European Space Agency:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kerch_Strait_Ferry,_satellite_image,_2018-03-05.jpgMedia licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From European People's Party:flickr.com/photos/eppofficial/5184303329From Finnish Government:flickr.com/photos/finnishgovernment/51918292552flickr.com/photos/finnishgovernment/52459548927
Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? The Three Main Options Available to Kyiv William Spaniel 2022-11-22 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)For the last three months, Ukraine has seen a string of successes on its counterattacks. Where will Kyiv go next? This video explores the three main options available. We also cover why the most attractive option also has the biggest downside risk.0:00 Ukraine's Successful Counterattack0:59 Where Ukraine Won't Go Next1:51 The Kherson Option3:18 The Northern Option4:09 The Real Prize: Zaporizhzhia6:29 The Nuclear Power Plant Problem8:37 The Kuwaiti Oil Fires9:42 How Bad Would the Nuclear Disaster Be?11:12 How to Cool Nuclear Fuel12:36 Why the Kakhovka Dam Matters Here14:03 Vladimir Putin Breeds TurkeysThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:http://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2017/01/12/ukrainski-desantniki-yaki-zahishhayut-peredovi-poziczii-v-naselenomu-punkti-piski-mayut-dvorichnij-dosvid-uchasti-u-bojovih-diyah/By Rosavtodor:https://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/327721By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50416http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57472http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62275http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69578http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69730http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69858http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69901Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):By Solundir:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kerch_Ferry_Yeysk.jpgMedia licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52340341956flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52328967784flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52328919198flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52352596914flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52339383057flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52327713542flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52329096480flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52328919133flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52340580238flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52340771495flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52318506586flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52340341846flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52339383027flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52352702420By Chad Nagle:flickr.com/photos/16936128@N06/15534875416Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5394785957flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5395362798flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/11083720905flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/11083570446
How Ukraine Forced Russias Retreat in Kherson William Spaniel 2022-11-10 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)On November 9, 2022, Russia announced that it would be withdrawing from Kherson City, the western most part of the front line and a key strategic position. How did Ukraine force Russia's hand? This video explains the three phases of the counterattack, and how Ukraine's moves over the last two months gave Russia little alternative.0:00 The Counterattack So Far0:49 The Kherson Feint2:58 Logistics Sabotage5:35 Russia's Dilemma7:49 Materiel Gains8:50 The Canal Question9:44 Dam Problems11:02 Ukraine's Next MoveMedia licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26346428793flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26738919522flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26995499187Media licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en):By Ukrinform TV:youtube.com/watch?v=p9Zy1jTOl0Eyoutube.com/watch?v=ONluwk9u4egMedia licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en):By Kyiv City:https://kyivcity.gov.ua/photo/ItemImage_50_dniv_aktivnogo_sprotivu_okupantu_mriya_nikoli_ne_pomre_foto__kmda_oleksiy_samsonov/By Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/300761http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57472http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69737http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69743http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69756http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69800
How the U.S. Election Will Affect the Russia-Ukraine War William Spaniel 2022-11-06 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)The United States has its midterm elections on Tuesday, and Republicans are set to take control over both houses. Should Ukraine worry about losing some of the funding it needs to fight off Russia? The answer is complicated.0:00 Current Military Aid to Ukraine0:43 The Point of Military Aid1:47 Why Presidents Hate Midterm Elections4:12 What Happens If Democrats Win?5:57 What Happens if Republicans Win?6:47 Congress Is Weaker than the President8:52 Most Republicans Want Aid10:02 The Military-Industrial Complex11:21: Ukraine Aid Is Popular14:07 OuttakesThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By US Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/51657579843flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/6001597234flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/51478390006flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/51302111360flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/51329108127flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/397621743By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544045538Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Mvs.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=321830783305911&set=a.291369769685346By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/press/photohttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69070Various other media from the Architect of the U.S. Capitol (flickr.com/photos/uscapitol).
Inside Russias Escalate to Deescalate Strategy William Spaniel 2022-11-03 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Russia may have a bizarre component of their nuclear doctrine known as "escalate to deescalate": escalate a conflict by using a few nuclear weapons with the expectation that it will force the other side to quickly deescalate. Is that plausible in the current conflict? This video reviews the possibilities.0:00 First Use of Nuclear Weapons1:07 What Is Escalate to Deescalate?2:13 Escalate to Deescalate Historically4:33 How Escalate to Deescalate Might Work in Ukraine9:10 Short-Term Prospects of Escalate to DeescalateMedia licensed under GODL India:http://pib.nic.in/newsite/photo.aspx?photoid=88021Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344722824flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26855856402Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By President of Ukraine:youtube.com/watch?v=Zbc7GYI1u-cBy Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/12822http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54491http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57438http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58500http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58528http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67514http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69070http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69695http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69703http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69721
How Marriage Rates Reveal Russias True Mobilization Strategy William Spaniel 2022-10-27 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Russia announced a mobilization of 300,000 soldiers. But how many is Moscow actually trying to deploy? New data reveal that the claimed mobilization is significantly smaller than what it truly is. This video explains the estimation process, highlights where there may be shortcomings, and places it in the broader context of the war.Here is the original article: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/24/marriedanddraftedThe Russian version has more details on how the study was conducted: https://zona.media/article/2022/10/24/wedding-season0:00 Russia's Announced Mobilization0:52 Russia's Incentive to Hide the True Number1:45 Estimating the True Number2:23 Weddings: The Key to the Puzzle3:43 Excess Marriages Post-Mobilization5:47 Regional Variation in Mobilization Rates6:41 Problems with the EstimateMedia licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/):By Mediazona:https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/24/marriedanddraftedMedia licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/press/photohttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20604http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63054http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65544http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67846http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69060http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69677http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69680By Duma:http://duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/63060/
Khersons Dam Problem: What to Watch for on the Southern Front William Spaniel 2022-10-25 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Ukraine has a dam problem. In the south of Ukraine, the city of Kherson will be flooded if Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's dam is destroyed. This video explains the motive for such an attack and what the consequences of it will be.0:00 Ukraine's Counterattack on Kherson1:38 Ukraine's Precision Strikes2:22 What Will Happen If the Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Destroyed?3:12 False Flag Operations on the Dam4:38 Ukraine's (Lack of Incentive) to Destroy It6:50 Russia's Incentive to Destroy It8:51 The Crimean Canal ConnectionThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52339383057Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/11083570446Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69653http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69578http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69636http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69656http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69665
The Three Reasons the Russia-Ukraine War Hasnt Ended William Spaniel 2022-10-22 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Eight months have passed since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A lot has happened over that time, but an end to the war is not one of them. What's holding things up? This video looks at the three big barriers to peace: Ukraine's momentum, uncertainty over Russia's mobilization, and Putin's personal bias.0:00 The War Is Getting Long1:27 Ukrainian Momentum7:21 Uncertainty over Mobilization11:14 Putin's Political BiasThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By US Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/6812714818Media licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By Ukrinform:youtube.com/watch?v=zjmGMK-J-_cMedia licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By the President of Ukraine:youtube.com/watch?v=2Tozpv9_l00youtube.com/watch?v=cqRsyh5aV5gyoutube.com/watch?v=391z2Of6uxIBy Armyinform.com.ua:https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/29/na-harkivshhyni-vidkopaly-vorozhi-tanky-j-peredaly-na-potreby-zsu/By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60795http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66762http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67514http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67846http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69381http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69653http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69656
How NATO Solves Its Abandonment Problem William Spaniel 2022-10-19 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)NATO is the most powerful alliance ever created. But the combined strength of its individual countries is meaningless if no one will actually help a member in need. In alliance politics, this is known as the "abandonment" problem. NATO is well aware of the issue, and it goes to great lengths to find solutions. This video explains them, with special attention to issues that will arise once Sweden and Finland join the alliance.0:00 NATO Expansion and Article 51:55 What Is Alliance Abandonment?4:35 Proactive Deployments7:23 Tripwires10:04 Military Integration12:49 Economic Interdependence14:34 Long-Term ReciprocationThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By President of Ukraine:https://www.president.gov.ua/news/prezident-ukrayini-proviv-zustrich-z-premyer-ministrom-finly-75381By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69578http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69623http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69636Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By US Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/28080952639flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/48061488772flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/48081656907By US Navy:flickr.com/photos/usnavy/47993686801flickr.com/photos/usnavy/48347021792flickr.com/photos/usnavy/50637709227flickr.com/photos/usnavy/51316592235By U.S. Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/24112643208flickr.com/photos/secdef/22671380395By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52256855777Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en):By Bundesacrhiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+101I-009-0882-04By Guilherme Paula:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Serbia_(1882%E2%80%931918).svg
How the Russia-Ukraine War Could Turn into a Nuclear Nightmare William Spaniel 2022-10-12 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Since the beginning of Russia's invasion Ukraine, nuclear weapons have loomed in the background. The rhetoric sharply increased after Ukraine's successful counterattacks. Although we are still many steps away from serious nuclear problems, the groundwork for concerns has been laid. This video explains what tactical nuclear weapons do, how Russia might try to deploy them, and what might deter Putin from taking such steps.0:00 Nuclear Threats in the Russia-Ukraine War0:49 Strategic versus Tactical Nuclear Weapons5:01 Tactical Benefits of Nuclear Weapons6:35 Basic Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons8:51 Forward Deployment of Tactical Nuclear Weapons12:18 Downsides to Forward Deployments15:25 What's the Risk of a Nuclear Detonation?The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994By US Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/3698437102By US Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/26823218162flickr.com/photos/secdef/52019176965Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4688155350flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5394785957flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5395197338By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/27609548716flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/37198868111Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By Ukrinform:youtube.com/watch?v=p9Zy1jTOl0Eyoutube.com/watch?v=Zbc7GYI1u-cyoutube.com/watch?v=2Tozpv9_l00Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/309http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/1697http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54481http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55192http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57506http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57797http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58528http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/62558http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65544http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67315http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68685http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69459http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69470
What the Crimean Bridge Attack Means for the Russia-Ukraine War William Spaniel 2022-10-08 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)In the morning hours of October 8, 2022, the Crimean Bridge came under attack. One of the most important pieces of Russian infrastructure, the incident represents a major escalation in the war. This video explores the immediate consequences of the attack in the context of the broader conflict.0:00 What Is the Crimean Bridge?0:34 Did Ukraine Attack the Bridge?1:01 Why Was the Bridge Attacked?2:03 The Difficulty of the Attack2:39 Civilian Casualties3:02 Lost Value to Ukraine3:59 One-Time Cost Problem, Featuring Lines on Maps4:59 Importance of Crimean Land Bridge5:18 Issues with Intelligence5:37 Removing the Golden Bridge6:14 Population Sorting6:51 Support of Moderates7:10 Tit-for-Tat Retaliation8:00 The Nuclear QuestionThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From the President of Ukraine:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/uchast-prezidenta-ukrayini-u-zasidanni-rnbo-4953From Rosavtudor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/300761http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381https://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/327721From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57472http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63753http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67514http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69309http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69390Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26462326050
How Good Is Elon Musks Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan? William Spaniel 2022-10-05 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)On October 3, Elon Must tweeted an outline for a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. How does it stack up against decades of social science research? This video examines its five key parts to get some answers.0:00 Musk's Proposal0:31 Will Ukraine and Russia Settle?3:05 Negotiating over Crimea4:10 Crimean Water Rights5:36 Ukrainian Neutrality6:49 ElectionsImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Office of the President of Ukraine:youtube.com/watch?v=cqRsyh5aV5gBy Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58502http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62227http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62249http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65862http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
Who Sabotaged the Russian-German Pipeline? William Spaniel 2022-09-30 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)The world is in the middle of a massive whodunnit: who sabotaged the Nord Stream pipeline? This video covers the evidence known so far, who the main suspects are, and what their motivations might be.0:00 The Nord Stream Sabotage0:27 The Evidence4:07 Putin and the Russian Government7:52 Russian Hardliners10:06 Russian Partisans11:41 Ukraine13:28 German Hardliners14:13 NATO Countries16:19 Gas ExportersThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By US Navy:flickr.com/photos/usnavy/52320402820flickr.com/photos/usnavy/52329499613By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By 1RNK:youtube.com/watch?v=ORWXraoHsD4Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/7408http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/13424http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55575http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61704http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62565http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67051http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67438http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67514http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67772http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68097http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68191http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68254http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68287http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69299http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69434By Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381
The Hardliners Dilemma: The Hidden Threat to Putins Regime William Spaniel 2022-09-28 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Putin is in a tight position if Russia's mobilization plan goes poorly. One might think that moderates within his administration are most likely to initiate a coup, as they would prefer to get out of the situation. That may be true, but the hardliners pose a threat for a different reason. This video explains the dilemma that the hardliners may soon find themselves in, and how the tension leads to deeper strategic problems.0:00 Hardliners vs Moderates: Who's the Threat?1:22 Issues with the Russian Mobilization5:59 Putin's Post-Failure Options8:36 Meta Coup10:14 Moderate OpportunistsImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By Ramy Raoof:flickr.com/photos/38290178@N06/5397614267Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):By Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-1990-0419-014By Aleksander Kaasik:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Autod_on_%C3%B6%C3%B6_l%C3%A4bi_oodanud_p%C3%A4%C3%A4su_praamile.Kertsi_v%C3%A4ina_kaldal_2014.a.jpgImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/photos/2000/05/128981.shtmlhttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51128http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55575http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58843http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59999http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65544http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67877http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69324http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69381http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69397http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69434By Mil.ru:http://structure.mil.ru/download/images/upload/2017/Gerasimov-HR.jpghttp://structure.mil.ru/download/images/military/military/2015/SAVX0027n(1).jpg?contentdisposition=attachmentBy Rosavtodor.ru:https://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/327721Images licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/):By Aleksander Kaasik:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Autod_on_%C3%B6%C3%B6_l%C3%A4bi_oodanud_p%C3%A4%C3%A4su_praamile.Kertsi_v%C3%A4ina_kaldal_2014.a.jpg
Russias Mobilization Announcement: The Ten Biggest Takeaways William Spaniel 2022-09-23 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)After demonstrating a terrible inability to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks, Russia had to do something. Putin's answer? Mobilizing 300,000 more soldiers to the frontlines. However, the announcement itself reveals deeper details about what will happen over the next phase of the conflict. This video covers the ten biggest takeaways.0:00 Putin's Big Announcement0:28 Gambling for Resurrection1:43 Aggressive Referenda3:02 Bolstering Domestic Support4:14 Nazis5:38 Ukraine's Nuclear Weapons?8:02 Truthiness9:34 Partial Mobilization11:05 Ineffective Mobilization?13:04 Nuclear Threats15:15 "This Is Not a Bluff"Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/24099352548flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/49398293561flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52340580228Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/30825537387By IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4688155350flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4724007720flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5262606951flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5395243252flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8798177880flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/52329096480By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544045538Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By Че Гевара:youtube.com/watch?v=6_NZ6M2XTFMBy Ukinform:youtube.com/watch?v=efNcUnxooMsImages licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):By Andrew Butko:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2018-05-09._%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%8C_%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%8B_%D0%B2_%D0%94%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B5_f164.jpgBy Bundesarhciv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-1987-0922-500Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):http://kremlin.ru/news/15229http://kremlin.ru/news/20604http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50925http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50971http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51001http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51011http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51128http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51228http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51270http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52269http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55192http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55508http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58502http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65544http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66434http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68650http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69318http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69324http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390
Ukraines Counterattack: How Putins Political Handcuffs Opened the Door for Kyiv William Spaniel 2022-09-21 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)On September 6, 2022, Ukraine initiated its long-anticipated counterattack. It was a wild success. The reason? Russia had politically handcuffed itself, and Ukraine used that opportunity to set a trap. A lesson of bridges over six acts.0:00 Ukraine's Counterattack1:11 The Targets2:59 Russia's Mobilization4:05 Enter HIMARS5:17 A Bridge (or Three) Too Far6:50 Ukraine's Trap8:47 The Unwritten Act: Shrinking Line of Control9:34 The Unwritten Act: Rasputitsa11:46 The Unwritten Act: General MobilizationThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By US Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/8141609325flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/32877736868By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544191890Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26855856402flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26909607133flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344722824flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/27187320542flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/27641816345flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/30825537387flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/30825538137flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/34329213744flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/38608372310Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By Ukrinform TV:youtube.com/watch?v=zjmGMK-J-_cyoutube.com/watch?v=p9Zy1jTOl0EImages licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):By Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-B15500https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+146-1981-149-34AImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Armyinform.com.ua:https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/29/na-harkivshhyni-vidkopaly-vorozhi-tanky-j-peredaly-na-potreby-zsu/By MBC Ukraine:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325710636251259&set=pcb.325710929584563By Kremlin.ru:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49615http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50916http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53410http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55508http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58528http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65544http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69247http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69324http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69381http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69366By Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381Images licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/):By Oleksander Malyon:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%A5%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B4_1.jpgBy Ekaterina Polischuk:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Taras_Shevchenko_monument.jpg
Ten Reasons Why Ukraine Hasnt Destroyed the Crimean Bridge William Spaniel 2022-09-14 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)The Crimean Bridge (also known as the Kerch Bridge) is a critical piece of infrastructure that connects Crimea to Russia. It connects civilians to the bigger country and allows Russia to transfer supplies and military equipment to the region. More than a half year into the war, Ukraine still has not targeted it. Why not? This video gives ten explanations, digging deeper into the underlying strategy of the conflict.0:00 Why The Crimean Bridge Is Important1:14 Military Difficulty3:49 One-Time Cost6:10 Tit-for-Tat Retaliation7:29 Monitoring and Intelligence8:31 Escape Route9:33 Population Sorting10:49 Civilian Casualties11:12 Maintaining Moderates13:29 Ukraine Wants the Bridge14:43 Negotiated Settlement16:59 Bonus ContentThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From President of Ukraine:youtube.com/watch?v=391z2Of6uxIyoutube.com/watch?v=2Tozpv9_l00youtube.com/watch?v=cqRsyh5aV5ghttp://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/uchast-prezidenta-v-urochistostyah-z-nagodi-dnya-konstituciy-533From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/news/20604http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50154http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55644http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56741http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56750http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57436http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57472http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62275http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63753http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69247http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69309http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69318From Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381https://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/327721http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/300761http://rosavtodor.ru/press-center/media/photo/232301From rk.gov.ru:https://glava.rk.gov.ru/article/show/2022_08_09_17_09_sergei_aksionov_prokommentiroval_situatsiiu_slozhivshuiusia_v_poselke_novofiodorovka_sakskogo_raionaImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Ministry of Defence of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344722824flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26462326050flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26739418952flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/29846086927Images licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en):From Aleksander Kaasik:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Autod_on_%C3%B6%C3%B6_l%C3%A4bi_oodanud_p%C3%A4%C3%A4su_praamile.Kertsi_v%C3%A4ina_kaldal_2014.a.jpgImages licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en):From IDF:https://www.idf.il/%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%9E%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%9D/%D7%93%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%98%D7%9B%D7%9C-%D7%A2%D7%A8%D7%91-%D7%A4%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%A5-%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%AA-%D7%99%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%94%D7%9B%D7%99%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%A0%D7%97%D7%A9%D7%A3-%D7%9C%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%94/From Solundir:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kerch_Ferry_Yeysk.jpg
Russias Gas Gamble: Four Risks Putin Faces with the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline Closure William Spaniel 2022-09-09 | Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)On September 3, 2022, Russia took a huge gamble by cutting all gas to Germany from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Energy exports are the Russian government's primary source of revenues. So why is Moscow denying itself critical money in the middle of an expensive war in Ukraine? And how might the strategy backfire?0:00 Russia Shuts Down the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline1:11 Lost War Funding2:56 Driving a Wedge in the West6:30 German Political Backlash8:46 German Gas Stockpiles12:17 Permanent Changes to German Energy Consumption13:30 Impacts to Negotiations between Russia and UkraineImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544045538flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544083798Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/13424http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/16612http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54859http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55405http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56028http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57436http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59845http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60363http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65544http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69180http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69230http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69238http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69245http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69247http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69280http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69295http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69299Images licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0):By rolf_acker:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:9EuroTicket-Juni2022-VVS_20220601_142311.jpg
Football Wars: How the World Cup Causes International Conflict William Spaniel 2022-09-06 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Football is the world’s most popular sport, but it may also contribute to the worst of human activities: war. This video explains the origins of the Football War and explains that more generally qualifiers for the World Cup initiate more crises than states that do not.0:00 Does Football Cause War?0:19 The Football War of 19693:22 Is the Football War Unique?4:15 World Cup Qualifying as a Test5:36 A Quasi-Experiment9:17 Limitations of the Experiment10:55 Why Do Qualifiers Initiate More Conflicts?The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16524365157By US Navy:flickr.com/photos/usnavy/52311568877flickr.com/photos/usnavy/52247514784flickr.com/photos/usnavy/52128440402Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/deed.en):By Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-R69173Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55582http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56258http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57738http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57787http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57891http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58004http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58009http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67827
How the Moscow Attack Reveals Deeper Russian Weakness William Spaniel 2022-08-29 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)The August 20, 2022 attack in the suburbs of Moscow and death of Darya Dugina is obviously not a good sign for Russia. However, it likely reveals a deeper weakness for Putin's regime---whether the attacker was Ukraine, a Russian resistance organization, or the Russian government itself. This video explains the possibilities and what it signals about the broader war in Ukraine.0:00 Four Explanations for the Death of Darya Dugina0:40 #1) False Flag Operation3:26 #2) Ukrainian Attack6:20 #3) Russian Resistance10:00 #4) Random ActThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By 1RNK:youtube.com/watch?v=ORWXraoHsD4By: Free Russia Forum:youtube.com/watch?v=NauOtK23ip8Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en):By A. Savin:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moscow_05-2012_Kremlin_22.jpgBy RIA Novosti:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#21225Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By FARS:https://www.farsnews.ir/photo/13981126000814/%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/structure/president/presidentshttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50239http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53419http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55575http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55644http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55891http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57084http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57448http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59999http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62293http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62556http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63525http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68386http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69202http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69208
How the West Can Exploit Russias Dutch Disease and End the War in Ukraine William Spaniel 2022-08-22 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Russia's reliance on its oil and gas industry has given it a case of "Dutch disease": a combination of labor shifts and exchange rate increases have gutted its manufacturing sector. Yet the West has not yet exploited Russia's vulnerability. This video explains the problem in greater depth and what's stopping the West from puting maximum pressure on Russia.0:00 Russia's Economic Vulnerability0:52 What Is Dutch Disease?1:42 Russia's Dutch Disease3:23 How the House of Cards Falls Apart4:17 How the West Has Attacked Russia Thus Far6:49 Russia's Budget Problem8:06 How the West Could Do More10:17 How Iran Could Put Pressure on RussiaImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By IAEA Imagebank:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/51656758346By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By IAEA Imagebank:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8134166980flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8134337647flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/9777141795Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 unported (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/):By Nikolai Karaneschev:web.archive.org/web/20161103134623/http://www.panoramio.com/photo/133594021Images licensed under GODL - India (https://data.gov.in/sites/default/files/Gazette_Notification_OGDL.pdf):By Prime Minister's Office:http://pib.nic.in/newsite/photo.aspx?photoid=56907http://pib.nic.in/newsite/photo.aspx?photoid=88021Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Khamenei.ir:https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=42027#ihttps://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=44693#iBy Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51004http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51898http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53410http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55775http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56028http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57506http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62325http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63054http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65973http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68454By Government.ru:http://archive.government.ru/media/2013/1/15/54413/image.jpeg
When Will Iran Get Nuclear Weapons? William Spaniel 2022-08-15 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Predictions or when Iran will acquire nuclear weapons have been embarrassingly inaccurate. Why is that the case? And what does that say about the likelihood of success for the current round of negotiations between Iran and world powers?0:00 Predicting When Iran Will Get Nuclear Weapons1:33 How Iran Is Building Nuclear Weapons3:24 Iran's Fast Fuel Timeline4:34 How Iran Would Design a Bomb7:25 Proliferation Is a Political Decision8:14 How Expensive Are Nuclear Weapons?9:29 Risks of Preventive Actions10:55 Negotiating an Iran Deal 2.012:58 The Problem of Nuclear PredictionImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By the IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/49398293561flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/49398294226By Israel Defense Forces:flickr.com/photos/idfonline/14456910963Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By the IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4501759569flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4723344137flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4723410123flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4724007720flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/4986316850flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5113882706flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5263274836flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5929210197flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/5929241753flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8168889729flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8168889853flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8366285569flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/8530809010flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/12221017074By Israel Defense Forces:flickr.com/photos/idfonline/14743522533Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Farsnews:https://www.farsnews.ir/en/photo/13991026000207/Iran-IRGC-Sages-Drill-by-Firing-Ballisic-MissilesBy Khamenei.ir:https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=40992https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=42027https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=44693https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=44727https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=49438https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=50654https://english.khamenei.ir/photo/5747/http://farsi.khamenei.ir/ndata/news/38293/B/13960902_0838293.jpgBy Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68454
Inside the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Why Russia Lifted Its Blockade of Ukraine William Spaniel 2022-08-09 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)On July 22, 2022, Ukraine and Russia signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Under the terms of the deal, Ukraine can now export grain and other agricultural products out of its ports without Russian interference. Ukrainian exports of wheat alone top $3.6 billion per year, making this a huge win for Kyiv.But will it hold up? Is this just a trick from Russia? Or are there good reasons for Putin to follow through on the deal out of his own self-interest?0:00 Russia's Blockade on Ukraine0:59 How the Black Sea Grain Initiative Works2:06 Is This a Russian Trap?4:49 Initial Successes5:54 Russia's Side Deal6:39 Negotiating a Broader Settlement8:33 Maintaining Russian Popularity10:39 Oil Price Retaliation13:42 John Kerry Likes DonutsThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/): By Ilia:flickr.com/photos/dobrych/2716662543By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344722824Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)By Ukrinform TV:youtube.com/watch?v=6QMX9B4bHkgImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/4157http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/45928http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54672http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57034http://www.en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/TR/events/59718/photos/57571http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57819http://www.en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/TR/events/59718http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/379/events/60386http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61799http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62275http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63753http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/681/events/67844http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68787http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69032http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69082http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101Images licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en):By AntanO: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Anti-government_protest_in_Sri_Lanka_2022.jpg
Why the Russian Economy Is in Deep Trouble William Spaniel 2022-08-02 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Five months into the invasion of Ukraine, it appears that the Russian economy is in decent shape. But looks can be deceiving. This video goes deeper into the effects of economic sanctions, showing that Russia may be in more trouble than it would otherwise seem.You can read a longer report on the Russian economy here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=41671930:00 Russia's Post-Invasion Economy1:34 Capital Flight4:11 Disappearing Trade7:38 Traditional Indicators: Markets, Exchange Rates, and Inflation10:23 Dwindling Cash ReservesImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19061http://kremlin.ru/news/20604http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49532http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50549http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51888http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54973http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55575http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56823http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58843http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61336http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61799http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62289http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62391http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62734http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66271http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68460http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69059http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69060http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69070http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69082http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69089By Mos.ru:https://stroi.mos.ru/uploads/media/main_image/0002/28/a493c25509c4235b80e30a9fa20ba3c41e7003b6.jpeg
Why Every NATO Member Joined (And Why Everyone Else Hasnt) William Spaniel 2022-07-21 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is the most powerful alliance in the world. Some of the reasons countries do or do not join are straightforward. But others are downright bizarre. This video explains them all, including how the pyramid schemes and the word "North" kept two countries out for years.0:00 NATO: The World's Most Powerful Alliance0:31 The Origins of NATO: "Keeping the Russians Out"1:35 The Founding Members of NATO and Cold War Additions4:02 Post-Cold War Expansion6:44 The North Macedonia Naming Dispute7:34 Geographic Restrictions8:58 NATO Opponents10:22 Neutral States11:36 Microstates11:59 Instability and ConflictImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From 7th Army Training Command:flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/23929783333flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/14256317005flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/14118327839flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/15462871137flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/14220927746flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/17271955156flickr.com/photos/7armyjmtc/29547842207From U.S. Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/48959007786flickr.com/photos/secdef/27078709523Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 Germany (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/deed.en):From Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-L05487https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-27106-0001https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-1987-0529-029https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=B+145+Bild-F024624-0004https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=B+145+Bild-P098967https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-L15327https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-2007-0403-501Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68460Photo of Transnistrian parade courtesy of Government of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
The Major Problem Russia, China, and Cryptocurrency Are All Facing William Spaniel 2022-07-14 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Russia, China, and the crypto market are all faced the same problem in 2022. Failure to address properly would cause massive instability in the two countries and the complete devaluation of multiple coins within the cryptosphere. That problem is bank runs, an issue that financial sectors have dealt with for centuries. This video explains how each of their problems is unique and what each is doing to try to solve them.0:00 Parallels in Russia, China, and Crypto0:49 What Is a Bank Run?1:53 Bank Runs Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies3:20 Sanctions Causing Bank Runs in Russia4:15 What Is Deposit Insurance?5:02 How Russia Solved Its Bank Runs6:50 What Is a Stablecoin?8:26 The 2022 Crypto Crisis10:59 China's 2022 Bank Run ProblemImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54665http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54973http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68460http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68490http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68685http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785Image licensed under CC BY 3.0 BR (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/deed.en):From Agencia Brazil:http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/galeria/2013-09-05/cupula-do-g20Image licensed under CC BY-SA DE 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/deed.en):From Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+102-12023Image licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994
Why the U.S. and Ukraine Are Having Trust Issues (But Its Worse with Russia) William Spaniel 2022-07-11 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8.(These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)In June, U.S. officials expressed frustration that Ukraine was not giving the United States accurate information about the military situation. This video analyzes the role of communication in war. It is unsurprising that communication between antagonists is difficult. It is more surprising that even states that share a common goal may also have troubles. But this is commonplace in military partnerships and does not foretell of deeper problems between Ukraine and the United States. Indeed, some types of messages between the countries are effective. The trust issues are much more problematic with Russia.0:00 U.S.-Ukraine Intelligence Frustration1:20 Why Bargained Settlements Are Standard (LINES ON MAPS)2:28 How Uncertainty Causes War4:08 Why Ukraine and Russia Can't Communicate their Resolve5:43 Uncertainty over Military Power6:55 Credibility Problems between the U.S. and Ukraine9:31 What Ukraine Can Credibly CommunicateImages licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26855856402flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/27517300495flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344722824flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26344721714flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/35031338072flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26738919342flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26798953876Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From U.S. Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/51691409289flickr.com/photos/secdef/51897828943flickr.com/photos/secdef/51690433310flickr.com/photos/secdef/51898392280Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64671http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67438http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68835http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68696
Whats Russias Snake Island Endgame? William Spaniel 2022-07-07 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)On June 30, 2022, Russia retreated from Snake Island, a strategically important area in the northwestern Black Sea. This might be an important break for Ukraine and global food markets. But it might also be a trap.0:00 The Ukraine-Romania Snake Island Dispute2:14 Why Does Russia Want Snake Island?3:28 Battle of Snake Island4:09 Ukraine's Snake Island Counterattack4:53 Is the Southern Theatre Over?6:03 Ukraine's Grain Problem7:27 The Middle East and North Africa Food Crisis9:54 Putin's Snake Island Gambit?Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62086http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65973http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68287Images licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/):By Fox52:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:International_Court_of_Justice_Seal.svg
Russias Cyberattack on Lithuania Reveals NATOs Deeper Problems William Spaniel 2022-06-30 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)After Lithuania announced they would enforce European Union sanctions on steel exports on Russia, a Russian hacker group targeted Lithuania with a cyberattack. Although it did not do much damage, it raises two critical questions for NATO going forward. Do cyberattacks trigger its Article 5 provision, prompting a response from all member states? And how will NATO deal with the inability to directly observe whether the Russian government is truly behind the attacks.0:00 The Kaliningrad Dispute1:24 Issues with the North Atlantic Treaty2:01 NATO's Article 52:50 What Is an "Armed Attack"?4:28 NATO Policy on Cyberattacks5:54 International Law's Enforcement Problem7:26 Why Article 5 Works8:32 Cyberattacks' Attribution Problem9:41 Cyberattacks and SovereigntyImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By U.S. Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/49897670943flickr.com/photos/secdef/39367586575flickr.com/photos/secdef/51615224430flickr.com/photos/secdef/49673575752flickr.com/photos/secdef/48959332722flickr.com/photos/secdef/24594868899By Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office:flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/15141138535flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/15144977415flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/14929889969flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/15140752122flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/14952158399By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994/in/photostreamImages licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):By Saeima:flickr.com/photos/saeima/8169464170Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)::By Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/61330http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65178http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68454http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785
New Book out Now! What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?) William Spaniel 2022-06-29 | Update! Physical copies are now available. You can buy the book here: amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
Russias Kaliningrad Problem with Lithuania Is Ukraine 2.0 ... with Some Big Differences William Spaniel 2022-06-24 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War" here: amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)Lithuania has begun enforcing European Union export restrictions on Russia, thereby blocking deliveries of steel to its Kaliningrad exclave. The parallels between this situation and Ukraine are uncanny. However, there are a few major dissimilarities that will likely lead to a different outcome.0:00 What is Kaliningrad?0:49 The Lithuania Crisis1:43 Connection to Ukraine3:08 How Russia Bought the Black Sea Fleet5:12 The Kaliningrad Land Bridge Problem6:40 The Crimea Land Bridge Problem8:26 Why Lithuania Is DifferentImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From President of Ukraine:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/vizit-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-institucij-yes-i-nato-u-bryusse-2953From Government of Ukraine:https://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/4344/prezident-ukrajini-viktor-jushenko-privitav-hliborobiv-zaporizhzhya-z-pershim-zibranim-milyonom-tonn-zerna-urozhaju-2008-roku.htmlhttps://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/21782/vistup-prezidenta-ukrajini-na-plenarnomu-zasidanni-samitu-initsiativi-shidne-partnerstvo.htmlFrom Kremlin.ru:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/7514http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/18809http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20604http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/50059http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57472http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58129http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68181http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68685Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):From RIAN Archive:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#699865Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By U.S. Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/51890735888FinnishGovernment:flickr.com/photos/finnishgovernment/51901001571From European People's Party:flickr.com/photos/45198836@N04/5555939209Baltic Economic Forum:flickr.com/photos/baltic-development-forum/4684254713Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):From Saeima:flickr.com/photos/saeima/8169464170
Ukraines Counterattack Catch-22 William Spaniel 2022-06-17 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpSoon, Ukraine is going to find itself in an impossible situation. Ideally, it would quickly convince Russia that occupying the southeastern part of the country is militarily untenable, ushering in a rapid end to the war at relatively low cost. However, this is also the one outcome that Putin can use to sell the war as a success to his domestic audience. Thus, ironically, any gains that Ukraine makes at this point will only make Putin want to fight harder. Ukraine may eventually emerge victorious, but it will come at a high price.0:00 The Current Stalemate0:22 Ukraine's Upcoming Counterattack1:11 Russia's Evolving War Plan2:04 Disagreement on Likely Outcomes3:03 Selling the War to Russian Citizens3:58 The Continuing Uncertainty5:18 How Should the War End?6:45 Russia's Domestic Constraint7:35 Gambling for ResurrectionImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) from kremlin.ru:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49456http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57084http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63560http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67119http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67250http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68254http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68656http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68666
Was Russias Invasion of Ukraine about NATO or Putins Territorial Ambitions? William Spaniel 2022-06-14 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpOn June 10, 2022, in a town hall meeting, Vladimir Putin discussed how Peter the Great captured Swedish lands that he viewed were Russian all along. Many have interpreted this as evidence that Putin was never worried about NATO encroachment, and that the invasion of Ukraine was a naked land grab from the start.This video explains how both are components of the same causal story. Failure to understand why states care about the indirect stakes of a conflict can lead to bad policy recommendations, which matters for both this conflict and also the ongoing Iranian nuclear saga.0:00 Putin and Peter the Great2:11 NATO as a Cause of the War2:50 Territorial Ambitions as a Cause of War4:09 War as a Two-Step Process5:35 The Iran Nuclear Saga7:32 Resolving the Russo-Ukrainian WarThe appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/);From IAEA:flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/46089461021Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Kremlin.ruhttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/4778http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67608http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68481http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68605http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68606http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68650
Is Putin Sick? What It Would Mean for the War William Spaniel 2022-06-05 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpSpeculation is growing that Vladimir Putin is ill and will perhaps die soon. In this video, I show that there is only a little evidence to suggest that this the case. Nevertheless, Putin is 69 years old and could plausibly die of natural causes. Is that consistent with what has happened in the Russo-Ukrainian War so far? And what would it mean for the end of the invasion?0:00 Putin's Shaky Hand?1:57 Putin's Limp2:33 Putin's Covid Isolation3:41 Putin's Blanket on Victory Day5:17 Ukrainian Intelligence Allegations5:40 Putin's Doctor7:06 Putin Dying Thought Experiment7:27 Putin's Irrational Behavior8:33 Truncated Punishment10:42 Wars of Stalling (LINES ON MAPS)15:05 Coup Incentives16:36 Leadership TurnoverImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From president.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/ru/news/prezident-predstaviv-novopriznachenogo-nachalnika-golovnogo-62637From Kremlin.ru:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/21026http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54467http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57084http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63054http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63560http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65068http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66762http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67250http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67568http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68254http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68287http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68386http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68479http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68490http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68491http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68494http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68558Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By UK Department for International Development:flickr.com/photos/dfid/3694081492
The 12 Causes of the Russo-Ukrainian War William Spaniel 2022-05-31 | Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)" on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/3OIXk6EWhat caused the Russo-Ukrainian War? This video tackles that question in four phases. First, we examine the substantive reasons Russia invaded Ukraine. Second, I explain why those reasons are collectively a half-cause for war. Third, we switch gears to discuss bargaining problems. Finally, we will investigate what each of these explanations implies for how the war will end.0:00 Outline1:19 Separatist Regions3:54 Crimean Land Bridge5:02 Russian Irredentism6:42 East-West Rivalry7:49 Energy9:36 Water10:34 Nazis12:20 Substantive Explanations Are Half-Causes12:54 Visualizing War's Expected Outcome (LINES ON MAPS)14:21 Costs Incentivize Bargaining15:09 Bargaining over Oil17:00 Bargaining over Autonomy17:34 Why War Is Puzzling18:52 Preventive War and Shifting Power21:00 Preemptive War and First Strikes24:20 Uncertainty and Miscalculation26:24 Rational, Unitary Actor Explanations for War27:05 Irrationality29:39 Personal Benefits31:28 Substantive Cases and War Termination32:57 Leadership Change36:36 Stopping Power Shifts39:52 Information Convergence42:29 EndgameAlmost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100394Artist: http://incompetech.comImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/albums/72157650787494428flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/albums/72157650784227730From European People's Party:flickr.com/photos/45198836@N04/5555939209Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):From spoilt.exile:flickr.com/photos/spoilt_exile/12038421283Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):From Bundesarchiv:https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-R92623From Ввласенко:tinyurl.com/yaj9nuk2From RIAN archive:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#141088http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From President.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/zustrich-prezidenta-ukrayini-z-predstavnikami-kompaniyi-appl-4273From mvs.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=328777909277865&set=pcb.328778209277835From Government of Ukraine:https://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/4344/prezident-ukrajini-viktor-jushenko-privitav-hliborobiv-zaporizhzhya-z-pershim-zibranim-milyonom-tonn-zerna-urozhaju-2008-roku.htmlhttps://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/21782/vistup-prezidenta-ukrajini-na-plenarnomu-zasidanni-samitu-initsiativi-shidne-partnerstvo.htmlFrom armyinform.com.ua:https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/26/francziya-vymagatyme-vid-rf-znyaty-oblogu-mariupolya/From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20604http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/37381http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49382http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49615http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62983http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65079http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65418http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65869http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66191http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66254http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66414http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67438http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67846http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68097http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68191http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68287http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68386http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500From Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/press-center/media/photo/232301http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381From mil.ru:http://mil.ru/winner_may/history/more.htm?id=11925131@cmsArticle
Why Doesnt the U.S. Have an Alliance with Taiwan against China? William Spaniel 2022-05-27 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpThe United States practices "strategic ambiguity" in its relationship with Taiwan. Unlike more standard alliances, there is only an informal understanding that the U.S. will support Taiwan in the event of a conflict. What exactly that means---and how much support the U.S. will provide---is ambiguous. If the goal here is to deter China, why doesn't the U.S. provide a stronger form of support?To answer that question, this video explains how strategic ambiguity's aim is mitigate the perverse incentives a more explicit alliance might offer Taiwan. It also disincentivizes China to instigate a preventive war, similar to Russia's argument for its invasion of Ukraine.0:00 The Puzzle of Strategic Ambiguity1:29 Strategic Ambiguity's Recent History3:04 Advantages of a Firmer Commitment5:14 Emboldenment Problem8:28 Moral Hazard11:27 Statistical Evidence for Ambiguity13:16 Preventive War Problem14:19 Future of Strategic AmbiguityAlmost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100394Artist: http://incompetech.comImages licensed under CC BY 4.0:From President.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/photos/prezident-ukrayini-volodimir-zelenskij-vidvidav-peredovi-poz-2929From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57436http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From U.S. Secretary of Defense:flickr.com/photos/secdef/52094251578From U.S. Navy:flickr.com/photos/usnavy/28506547841flickr.com/photos/usnavy/50783643256flickr.com/photos/usnavy/28433055282flickr.com/photos/usnavy/51270790104flickr.com/photos/usnavy/51269312997From U.S. Army:flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/15006521447From Taiwan Presidential Office:flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/33887768794flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/30561064614flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/52050135817flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/52088791032From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410Image of diplomat Hsiao Bi-khim is from Legislative Yuan.
Five Reasons Why a Coup Hasnt Ousted Putin Yet William Spaniel 2022-05-24 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpThree months into the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has seen a failed attack on Kyiv, an enormous international backlash, and a large number of casualties. So why haven't Russian political elites initiated a coup to remove Vladimir Putin from power? This video explains five key barriers to such an outcome.0:00 Problems with the Invasion0:55 Putin's Popularity3:22 Coordinating a Coup5:06 Loyalty of Putin's Oligarchs6:54 Aid Problems10:13 PurgesImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.uk):From mvs.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=321830783305911&set=a.291369769685346From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49615/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51001/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52908/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54481/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55192/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56495/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66381/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67707/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68250/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68297/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68390/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68451/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68460/Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en);From RIA Nostovi archive:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#21225http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#848095Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en):From Kremlin.ru:web.archive.org/web/20080216141608/http://www.kremlin.ru/articles/bigphoto.shtmlhttp://www.kremlin.ru/events/photos/2001/10/39973.shtmlImages licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/deed.en):From State Chancellery of Latvia:flickr.com/photos/valstskanceleja/7300446616
What Does Russia’s “Capture” of Mariupol Mean for the War in Ukraine? William Spaniel 2022-05-19 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpMariupol fell to Russian forces on May 16, 2022. Why is this such a big deal? Why did Russia want it so badly? What does it tell us about what Putin wants out of this war? And what are the strategic risks for Russia? In short, the near-complete destruction of the city indicates a lack of desire from Putin to integrate Ukraine into Russia. Rather, the goal is to capture territory to form a land bridge to Crimea.From Ukraine's perspective, the destruction of Mariupol gives Ukraine less inherent reason to fight over the territory, though it may ultimately enhance Ukraine's bargaining position.0:00 Summary of Siege of Mariupol0:57 Why Did Russia Want Mariupol?2:16 Building a Crimean Land Bridge5:15 What the Destruction of Mariupol Says about Russia's Motives8:01 Oil, Gas, and the Sea of Azov8:47 Does Mariupol's Destruction Hurt Ukraine's Bargaining Position?Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en):From Mvs.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=330462455776077&set=pcb.330462559109400facebook.com/photo/?fbid=328777889277867&set=pcb.328778209277835facebook.com/photo/?fbid=328777975944525&set=pcb.328778209277835facebook.com/photo/?fbid=323044323184557&set=pcb.323044476517875facebook.com/photo/?fbid=328777909277865&set=pcb.328778209277835facebook.com/photo/?fbid=323044143184575&set=pcb.323044476517875From President.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/photos/prezident-ukrayini-volodimir-zelenskij-vidvidav-peredovi-poz-2929From armyinformm.com.ua:https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/26/francziya-vymagatyme-vid-rf-znyaty-oblogu-mariupolya/From Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66191/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366/From Rosavtodor.ru:http://rosavtodor.ru/press-center/media/photo/232301https://rosavtodor.gov.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/36321http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381https://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/327721From mil.ru:http://мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/files/morf/VMF_wallpapers.zipImages licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo/deed.en):From European Space Agency:earthexplorer.usgs.govImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):From Chad Nagle:flickr.com/photos/16936128@N06/15534875416flickr.com/photos/16936128@N06/15555902821flickr.com/photos/16936128@N06/15558584665From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16111692823flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544191890
NATO, Finland, Sweden, and Russias Domino Theory Dilemma William Spaniel 2022-05-16 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpVladimir Putin claims that Russia invaded Ukraine to halt the eastward expansion of the NATO alliance. Three months into the war, Putin has misplayed his hand right into his alleged fear, as Finland and Sweden look set to join it.This video examines Putin's execution of "domino theory" doctrine---the idea that failing to stop one threat leads to more threats down the line. Often absent from domino theory discussions is the fact that fighting wars weakens your military capacity to win other conflicts later. Thus, fighting for reputation creates a dilemma, and perhaps one that Putin poorly navigated this time around.0:00 Finland and Sweden Are Joining NATO0:53 History of Domino Theory2:38 Examples of Domino Theory3:29 Putin Implementing Domino Theory4:18 Reputation's Downside Risk4:48 The Habsburg Empire's Failure5:37 Visualizing the Dilemma7:11 Great Britain's Conservative Approach8:27 Putin's Miscalculation9:57 The U.S.'s Post WWII Weariness10:51 War Exhaustion12:03 Putin's War Exhaustion ProblemImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):FinnishGovernment:flickr.com/photos/finnishgovernment/51901001571OSCE Special Monitoring Mission: flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):Ningyou: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Cross_of_Burgundy.svgRIAN Archive:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#21225http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):President.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/oficijnij-vizit-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-velikoyi-britaniyi-3693Mvs.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325710482917941&set=pcb.325710929584563Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49710/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016/
How Popular Is Vladimir Putin in Russia? William Spaniel 2022-05-11 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpPublic opinion polls in Russia suggest that Vladimir Putin's popularity as high as 81.6%. But Putin is an autocrat, and Russian citizens may be reluctant to voice disapproval for his regime. Can we trust that the polling figures are anywhere close to the truth?Political scientists have a solution to this kind of problem: the list experiment. It allows pollsters to infer support for a leader without asking directly about the leader. This results of list experiments in Russia are striking: true support appears to be only slightly smaller than what the standard polls indicate. Russians (probably) like Putin.0:00 Putin's Poll Numbers in Russia1:04 Preference Falsification2:33 What Is a List Experiment?4:44 List Experiment on Putin6:04 More Preference Falsification in 2022?6:56 Incentives to Lie in List Experiments7:48 Framing Problems8:42 Respondent Fatigue10:00 An Updated Experiment11:09 Putin Is (Probably) Still PopularFor the original academic article on the polls, see here: scottgehlbach.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FGMR-Putin.pdfThere is also a blog post that summarizes the results and updates them for 2021: ponarseurasia.org/is-putins-popularity-still-real-a-cautionary-note-on-using-list-experiments-to-measure-popularity-in-authoritarian-regimesPhotos licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):From Raimond Spekkingcommons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_Merkel_2019_cropped.jpgFrom Kremlin.ruhttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329/http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63560/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071/http://state.kremlin.ru/president/allbiohttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177/http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67118http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67814http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49710/From duma.gov.ruhttp://duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/28642/#slider-28642-28638http://duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/71242/#slider-71242-71236http://duma.gov.ru/duma/persons/99100142/Photos licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)From Gage Skidmoreflickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/49405314627From Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Officeflickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/41099455635From John Matthew Smithflickr.com/photos/kingkongphoto/5113183824
Victory Day in Russia: Putins Four Potential Strategies for the War in Ukraine William Spaniel 2022-05-07 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpVictory Day, the holiday celebrating the end of World War II, is fast approaching in Russia. Many are speculation that Vladimir Putin might use the event to make a big announcement regarding the war in Ukraine. What might that be? This video examines four possibilities.0:00 Introduction1:06 Escalate the War3:46 Do Nothing5:15 Declare Victory6:39 Will Ukraine Let Russia Declare Victory?7:58 No ShowImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):By Kremlin.ru:http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490/http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/38089/photos/28350http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/photoshttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52908/photoshttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/photoshttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63560/http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177/photoshttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016/photoshttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67734/photos/67564By Mil.ruhttp://mil.ru/winner_may/history/more.htm?id=12226133@cmsArticlehttps://z.mil.ru/spec_mil_oper/media/video/watch.htm?id=17464@morfVideoAudioFileImages licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):By OSCE:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544045538Images of Romania are courtesy the Romanian Communism Online Photo Collectionhttp://fototeca.iiccmer.ro/
Ten Ways the Ukraine-Russia War Could End William Spaniel 2022-05-04 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpWith the Ukraine-Russia War now going on for months, it is time to think about how it might end. This video covers ten of the most important possibilities, ranging from a complete Russian victory, to a Ukrainian upset, to World War III.0:00 Introduction0:18 Afghanistan Syndrome1:41 Putin Removed from Office2:42 Victory Day "Victory"4:20 Putin Gambles for Resurrection6:08 Negotiated Settlement7:13 Zelensky Eliminated8:13 Complete Military Defeat of Ukraine9:27 Ukraine Destroyed10:35 It Doesn't12:10 World War IIIImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en):By President.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/photos/prezident-ukrayini-volodimir-zelenskij-vidvidav-peredovi-poz-2929commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Khomchak_with_Zelensky.jpghttps://www.president.gov.ua/photos/urochisti-zahodi-z-nagodi-skladennya-prisyagi-prezidentom-uk-2905commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_41.jpghttps://www.president.gov.ua/en/president/biografiyaBy Kmu.gov.ua:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-ukrayini-zustrivsya-z-premyer-ministrom-izrayilyu-59441By mvs.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=324376189718037&set=pcb.324376259718030facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325462792942710&set=pcb.325463152942674By dsns.gov.ua:facebook.com/photo/?fbid=326649719502924&set=pcb.326650032836226By Kremlin.ru:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56516/photoshttp://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177/photoshttp://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52908/photoshttp://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65079/photos/65300http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63560/photos#http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/photoshttp://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54467http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57436http://en.putin.kremlin.ru/2010-08By mil.ru:https://z.mil.ru/spec_mil_oper/media/video/watch.htm?id=17464@morfVideoAudioFileImages licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en):By A.Savin:commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moscow_05-2012_Kremlin_22.jpgBy Bundesarchiv:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bundesarchiv_Bild_183-2005-0828-525_Erich_Ludendorff_(cropped)(b).jpgBy RIA Novosti archive:http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#21225By Kremlin.ru:http://state.kremlin.ru/president/allbioImages licensed under CC BY 2.0:By OSCE:flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16109335994flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544045538flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410
This Map Helps Explain Why the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn’t Ended William Spaniel 2022-04-25 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpTwo months into the Russia-Ukraine War, and the battle still continues. This video helps explain why the parties have not yet reached a settlement. War is best thought of as bargaining failure, which can happen as a consequence of differing expectations of what will happen in the event of a conflict. Russia's failure to take Kyiv provided helpful information. But it hasn't completely resolved the information asymmetry. Now what matters is how the war will play out when Russia is just focused on the southern and eastern fronts. Until that gets resolved, there still may not be a forthcoming deal.0:00 Introduction0:55 February: Russia's Three-Front Invasion2:32 March: Kyiv Offensive Stalls2:45 April: Russia Reorients East3:06 Why Did the War Begin?4:14 Russia Learns It Was Wrong5:16 Why Did Putin Have Bad Information?6:43 War Provides New Information, But Also a New StrategyImages licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en): antenna attack by mvs.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=321830783305911&set=a.291369769685346), rubble by mvs.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325462792942710&set=pcb.325463152942674), downed plane by dsns.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=326649719502924&set=pcb.326650032836226), Zalensky portrait by president.gov.ua (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/president/biografiya), abandoned tank by mvs.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325710482917941&set=pcb.325710929584563), raised flag by dshv.mil.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=343533637820631&set=a.291577646349564), advancing Russian tank by mil.ru (https://z.mil.ru/spec_mil_oper/media/video/watch.htm?id=17464@morfVideoAudioFile), Moskva by mil.ru (http://мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/files/morf/VMF_wallpapers.zip), destroyed road by president.gov.ua (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/robocha-poyizdka-prezidenta-ukrayini-na-kiyivshinu-4525), Putin portrait by kremlin.ru (http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65079/photos/65300), long table 1 by kremlin.ru (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67830), long table 2 by kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67734/photos/67564), virtual meeting by kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63541/photos), bilateral meeting by kremlin.ru (http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/photos/big2x/HASKAQP7TQ4oTwtEEf6xBuIkWinXU3Hq.jpg), desk meeting by kremlin.ru (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67829), Putin by flag by kremlin.ru (http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/photos/big2x/HASKAQP7TQ4oTwtEEf6xBuIkWinXU3Hq.jpg), Putin with soldiers by kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548/photos)Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en): tanks by OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410)
Finland, Sweden, and NATOs Entrapment Problem William Spaniel 2022-04-18 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpFinland and Sweden have recently shown increased interest in joining NATO. This video describes one of the main hurdles to reaching an agreement on an an alliance: entrapment. Alliances make partner countries more powerful. Patrons must therefore worry that their partners will provoke wars that the patron has no interest in but is nevertheless stuck fighting. NATO's design as a defensive alliance alleviates the problem to some degree, but even then it is not perfect.A couple of additional notes:1) It is very likely that Finland and Sweden will be welcomed into NATO if they ask for membership.2) It is not particularly likely that Finland would try to make a move on Karelia, but most land disputes occur over areas that were previously administered, it’s just a placeholder for any number of other issue areas, and they are always something that the alliance patron must consider before offering membership.0:00 Finland and Sweden to Join NATO?0:19 History of NATO and NATO Membership1:51 Why Join an Alliance?2:20 Sweden's Neutrality Policy3:13 The Entrapment Problem6:10 Why NATO Can't Entrap Finland or Sweden6:53 NATO's Article V Clause
Why Hasnt the United Nations Punished Russia for Ukraine? William Spaniel 2022-04-12 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpDespite global condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations has done seemingly little to rebuke Moscow for starting the war. Why?The explanation is two-fold. First, the premise is inaccurate. The U.N. has passed a number of resolutions calling for an end to the conflict and blaming Russia for initiating it. However, these resolutions have not received much attention precisely because they come from a U.N. body that does not have the power to issue binding legislation.The second part is that Russia is standing in the way. The Security Council has the power to pass binding resolutions under international law. But there are five permanent member on the Security Council, and each has veto power. It just so happens that Russia is one of those states. So unless Russia leaves the Security Council on its own accord, it will be next to impossible to have the U.N. do more.Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/): Putin by kremlin.ru (http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65079/photos/65300 and commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_12024.jpg and http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385/photos and http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385/photos and ), rubble by mvs.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=321813666640956&set=pcb.321813919974264 and facebook.com/photo/?fbid=328777975944525&set=pcb.328778209277835)
How Sanctions Can Make Negotiating a Settlement Harder William Spaniel 2022-04-05 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpMany countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia to make continuing the invasion of Ukraine less attractive to Moscow. However, it is possible that such sanctions can make negotiating a settlement to end the war more difficult. Increasing Russia's costs of war allow Ukraine to expand its demands. When there is uncertainty over what Putin is willing to accept, it is possible that sanctions make riskier demands look more attractive. This increases the probability that Russia will reject settlement offers, and thus the war might continue for longer than what would be the case without the sanctions.Images licensed under CC BY 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en): Images licensed under CC By 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en): cabinet meeting by Kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626), destroyed tanks by mvs.gov.ua (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325710482917941&set=pcb.325710929584563), Volodymyr Zelensky portrait by president.gov.ua (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/president/biografiya), Vladimir Putin portraits by Kremlin.ru (web.archive.org/web/20080216141608/http://www.kremlin.ru/articles/bigphoto.shtml and http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/press-photos/small2x/MASBIm1A6bA.jpeg)
Why Permanent Sanctions against Russia Hurt Ukraines Bargaining Position William Spaniel 2022-03-22 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpThe west has indicated that the sanctions against Russia will end if Putin withdraws Russian forces from Ukraine. But if the invasion egregiously violated international norms, why wouldn't the sanctions continue? The answer is that it hurts Ukrainian bargaining power. The larger Russia's costs of war are, the more Ukraine can extract out of a negotiated settlement. Conditional sanctions act as a cost of war; permanent sanctions are just a cost of existing. Thus, Ukraine may be actively hurt by having those sanctions continue forever.Licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/): video of Putin by Kremlin.ru (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828) and destroyed tanks by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=324376199718036&set=pcb.324376259718030)
Why Isnt NATO Imposing a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine? William Spaniel 2022-03-17 | Check out my books on Amazon (paid link): amzn.to/2SiQjlpThere have been a lot of calls for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. However, NATO leadership has shown no interest in this. Why? This video explains three major issues: the scope of such an operation, the unclear benefits, and the risk of nuclear escalation.Photo of Boris Johnson by Ben Shread of the Cabinet Office and licensed under OGL v.3 (http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3)Photos licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en): parade by Kremlin.ru (http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/photos), Ukrainian civilians by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=324410676381255&set=a.291369769685346), Ukraine rubble by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325462792942710&set=pcb.325463152942674), destroyed tanks by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (facebook.com/photo/?fbid=324376199718036&set=pcb.324376259718030), Yak -130 by Mil.ru, Su-35S by Mil.ru (http://мультимедиа.минобороны.рф/multimedia/photo/gallery.htm?id=53137@cmsPhotoGallery)Photo of Kremlin by A.Savin (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moscow_05-2012_Kremlin_22.jpg) licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en)
