Cosmologists Alan Guth and Alex Vilenkin debunk William Lane Craig in their own words. Jeff Hester 2019-04-09 | William Lane Craig uses a misrepresentation of a paper by Borde, Guth and Vilenkin as the foundation of his "Kalam Cosmological Argument" for the existence of God. Here Alan Guth and Alexander Vilenkin discuss their work, and in the process contradict every claim made by WLC in both his Kalam and Fine-Turning Arguments.Specifically they say:* A multiverse is more plausible than a single universe* Apparent fine tuning is likely random chance* In quantum physics events require no cause* Specifically, no cause is needed for a universe to emerge uncaused from nothing* The multiverse seems to be an unavoidable part of the successful theory of inflationary cosmology* It is very difficult to say what is common and uncommon in the multiverse* It is unclear Boltzmann Brains need to be taken seriously at all* There are a variety of ways the multiverse might form without a cause* Inflationary cosmology may eliminate the problem with low initial entropyAnd Alex Vilenkin specifically states that as far as he can tell, there is no evidence for a personal God.These seem to be WLC's heroes. If so, perhaps we should just take them at their word and stop wasting time on these two latest tired incarnations of arguments from First Cause and Design.
PredictiveClassroom Jeff Hester 2023-08-04 | Guiding Students as they Construct Their Lived RealitiesAccording to a powerful new theory of the mind, every sight, sound, thought, or emotion we ever experience is the brain’s evolving constructed best guess about what’s going on in the world and in ourselves.The brain does that guessing by comparing predictions of its model of the world with signals from the senses, our bodies, and our memories of past experiences.Learning is not about about acquiring knowledge and skills. Learning is about expanding the predictive model of the world that forms the basis of the only reality we can ever know.We are working to bring this revolutionary new theory out of the Ivory Tower and into classrooms. Predictive Processing offers a powerful and practical new lens on the environment and experiences that shape student and teacher alike.
A week in Cozumel diving with the Hesters / October 2022 Jeff Hester 2022-11-05 | For some time now, October has meant a week diving in Cozumel on Nena with Dive with Cristina https://divewithcristina.com. This year three of us made the trip, my wife Vicki, our 13 year old daughter Christina, and myself.Eagle rays, turtles, sharks, eels, crabs, lobsters, octopus, fluorescent corals and fireworms, parrotfish, porcupine fish, trumpetfish, filefish, squid, groupers, and on down the list, all on a reef that is gorgeous beyond words.And then there are the damselfish, who get the award for sheer scrappiness!This is a place that we love. I hope you enjoy the video!(Everything in the video is kid friendly. Vicki shares it with the elementary school where she is principal.)
Cozumel: October 2, 2022 - Diving with Aldora Divers Jeff Hester 2022-10-27 | Cozumel's Palancar Reef is gorgeous beyond words. This is some video from a couple of dives with Aldora Divers in October 2022. At half an hour, consider this "video fireplace" genre. I may make a trimmed, more carefully edited version. Or not... The water was full of debris that day so it was a bit like shooting in a blizzard a lot of the time. Makes for an interesting editing and color grading challenge with decidedly mixed results. Even so, I hope that it captures some of the beauty of the place and the experience of diving there.For those who wonder you might notice that we are flying along largely without the use of fins. This is drift diving. The currents in Cozumel are strong so the boat drops you off at one place then picks you up down current. Makes for a very relaxed dive as you watch the world go by.My thoughts that day were of the juxtaposition of scales, from a tiny juvenile file fish to the towering reefs themselves. I enjoy taking video that places divers in that environment. Nate, Tom, Josh, and Kent were a great group to dive with, but I really should remember to point the camera at myself now and then. ;-)
Sea Nettle sharing Monterey Bay with curious SCUBA divers Jeff Hester 2022-07-06 | A nice Pacific Sea Nettle amidst divers in Monterey Bay, California.July 3, 2022 at Eric's Pinnacle, diving on Beachhopper II. A great day!
Beautiful Chaos: The dance of Northern Hemisphere winds from June 2019 through October 2020 Jeff Hester 2020-11-19 | Earth's climate and weather are powered by the Sun, and given their form by convection and Earth's rotation. Every introductory textbook out there presents a useful but simplified version of what it all looks like. I should know because I wrote one. But in reality, Earth's weather is the very definition of chaos. (Really. Scientists working on weather were the first to recognize the nature of complexity and chaos.) The resulting patterns are as beautiful as they are dramatic.In this video I show the patterns of precipitation, surface winds, and jet streams at the top of Earth's troposphere from June 2019 through October 2020. For those with an interest in the physics of our climate there is enough in here to lose yourself for hours. (As me how I know this.) Others will see a video fireplace. Watch the mesmerizing patterns, listen to the music, and let it take you where it will.My personal motivation was a longstanding fascination with atmospheric dynamics. (I recently wrote a column about it for Astronomy Magazine that you can find here: astronomy.com/magazine/jeff-hester/2019/12/watching-rome-burn ) I just needed to be able to sit back and watch as our planet does what it does. I'd like to acknowledge the work of Cameron Beccario at https://earth.nullschool.net. His streamline visualizations saved me a lot of work digging into the raw data from NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center.
From the Classroom to Critical Care: School Reopenings and the Resurgence of COVID-19 Jeff Hester 2020-11-04 | As schools started to open the danger was clear. Asymptomatic children would pass around COVID in classrooms, then carry it home into situations where there are no masks or distancing. From there it would spread into the community. Unfortunately that seems to be exactly what is happening. Even though many school districts have been anything but transparent about what is actually happening within schools, per se, indirect measures such as data on community spread around schools are both telling and damning.Focussing on Maricopa County in Arizona, changes in trends in case numbers are closely correlated with openings of Universities and Schools, but are NOT correlated with openings of businesses. Further, the earlier a District opened its doors for face-to-face classes, the faster COVID-19 is spreading in the surrounding community.Our approach to opening schools has been remarkably similar to what happened in Israel, with full classrooms and reliance on masks to control spread. However, unlike most Districts in the US, Israel did enough contact tracing to demonstrate conclusively that schools were the source of the outbreak there. When you quantitatively compare what happened in Israel following school reopenings with what is happening in the U.S (specifically Arizona) right now, the curves are indistinguishable.So while it is not conclusive, the evidence overall strongly supports the claim that school openings play a key role in the current and as yet most severe outbreak of COVID-19. By this point in the process Israel was already reimposing restrictions, which we are not. Even so, it has taken Israel 5 1/2 months to begin to get their school-driven outbreak back under some semblance of control. Their experience offers some sense of what we might expect in the months to come.People's lives are being destroyed as a result of rash decisions on the part of those in a hurry to reopen schools. The question that we face is, "Does anybody care?"
Lies, Damned Lies, and COVID-19 Statistics Jeff Hester 2020-08-28 | Whether benchmarks for reopening mean anything or not (they don’t), that is where attention is focussed right now. Do the statistics meet the benchmarks? Everything hangs on those statistics. So, how reliable are those statistics anyway? When it turns out that the head of the Arizona Department of Health Services is leaving a quarter of the data on the floor, and that the "official" numbers consistently look better than independently arrived at numbers, the answer is kind of obvious.Here I go through what that means, showing how easy it is if you have control over testing and testing data to make the final numbers look how you want them to look.I should mention that the case fatality rate I mention a couple of minutes in cannot be taken at face value EITHER. I did not mean to imply that they could. It is influenced by time lags and other factors. What it cannot be influenced by, however, are things like how much testing is being done, what neighborhoods are being tested, and which data the AZDHS decides is worth considering. Which is the point. This stuff is complicated, far too complicated to be captured by simple benchmarks.
Complexity, COVID-19, and Cooking The Benchmark Books: A virtual forum for educators Jeff Hester 2020-08-24 | The COVID-19 pandemic, like a hurricane, is a complex system. It is a FORMALLY complex system, in the mathematical sense of the term. Systems like this, with many interacting, interdependent, diverse parts, CANNOT even in principle be characterized by just a few numbers like trends in cases or positivity ratios. Opening schools in the face of the current situation would add to that complexity in ways tailor made to amplify the virus and send it back into the community.I also look specifically at Arizona and show that our benchmarks can be manipulated from bad to good by doing nothing more than changing who gets tested.For those who have been following my videos, the first part of this talking about complexity and the later portion talking about manipulating benchmarks are topics I've not previously discussed in this way.
No, Betsy, Hybrid Classes Arent Safe Jeff Hester 2020-08-18 | Hybrid models are favorites of those who want to see schools open face to face this fall. The idea is that transmission is less common in small groups. That is true, but only if those groups are isolated. When you look realistically at schools using something like a one day on, two days off model, the story is very different. Ultimately you open up many, many pathways along with COVID can and will spread. That is what led an epidemiologist at Harvard to say, “The hybrid model is probably among the worst that we could be putting forward.”In the video I start with at-home infection of a single student. In the case of remote learning, that is where the contagion stops. But if that student is a member of a cohort in a hybrid close, the disease can spread through a network that amplifies the disease and then sends it right back out into the community._______________After a career in astrophysics I turned my eye to helping people and organizations find success in the face of rapid change. Reach out and we can explore possibilities. You can follow my thoughts on Facebook (facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.Hester), youTube, and at http://www.jeff-hester.com.
How many lives would opening schools destroy? Jeff Hester 2020-08-17 | Many school districts in the United States are talking about reopening this fall. That experiment has already been done in Israel. At this point the results of that decision look like they may well topple the nation’s government. The numbers would be far worse in the United States for the simple reason that we are wildly worse off right now than Israel was at the time of its decision. Using a few simple assumptions I take what happened in Israel and scale it to what we might expect in the U.S. I focus on Mesa, Arizona public schools, which is where I live, to get a sense of what things would look like locally. Within a couple of months Mesa could see an average of one death per every 5 campuses, and significantly more for especially large school. I want to stress that that number is DEATHS, not cases. Case numbers would be far larger, as would the number of District employees hospitalized for severe illnesses. But that is only the tip of the iceberg, because in Israel school openings caused outbreaks that spread into the community. Again, using simple scaling for every death of a District employee we might expect to see six additional deaths in the community. In places where schools reopen the substantial majority of those whose lives are ruined will not know that the chain of infection that got them came from a school.For teachers, these could easily be lowball estimates. Remember that it is schools that trigger the outbreak; schools are far more dangerous places that most other environments. And for teachers who are in their 60’s there might be another ten times the risk because that is the age where COVID-19 really starts to take a toll.It seems unlikely that we will see these numbers. Many districts in the state have the sense not to open, despite pressure from the Governor’s office. And then there is the simple fact that as school districts blow up — which is already starting to happen — schools are going to be shutting things down again anyway. But those shutdowns won’t come until carnage has been inflicted on employees and the community.These decisions are in the hands of a remarkably few people, none of whom have the expertise to make them. In the case of Mesa, members of the Governing Board include someone with a degree in Home Economics Education, a former history teacher, an accountant, a former elementary school teacher, and someone with a background in public administration. I take nothing away from these people, none of whom signed on to shepherd a school district though a global pandemic! But that does not change the fact that none of them have the kind of background needed make sense of what is happening. As a result, they are thinking more about politics than public health.Couple that with the fact that state benchmarks (which are only suggestions) are ridiculously lax, and the District is facing the possibility of disaster.The question that I have for those making these decisions is obvious once you think about it. I challenge each of them to start naming the people in the District and the community who deserve to die so that schools can open face to face for a few weeks._______________After a career in astrophysics I turned my eye to helping people and organizations find success in the face of rapid change. Reach out and we can explore possibilities. You can follow my thoughts on Facebook (facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.Hester), youTube, and at http://www.jeff-hester.com.
The Tragic Absurdity of Benchmarks for Safely Reopening Schools Jeff Hester 2020-08-12 | States are coming out with benchmarks and guidelines for school reopenings. Most of those talk about “safely” holding in-person classes. They say a lot about case rates and trends and hospitalizations and the like, but for most people those numbers are meaningless. When I think of “safety” I’m more interested in questions like, “How many people are likely to get sick and die?”I’m a numbers guy. I understand about the complexity and uncertainties in answering questions like that. But if you look at what we do know, something that you can say is that most of those benchmarks fall absurdly short of what is needed for a safe return to schools. That experiment has been done elsewhere. In Israel, where case rates had been reduced to less than 1% of what the U.S. is experiencing, opening schools was directly responsible for what remains one of the worst outbreaks on the planet. Why would we imagine our experience will be different?In fact, just a week after some districts started to open we are already seeing signs of the same thing happening here. Two to three weeks is the magic number for when to see cracks appearing after a school opens. And by the time you see the crack, the reality is that the floodgates are already open.I would call these “Safety benchmarks” laughable if they weren’t so tragic. If we really do this — as it looks like many places will — we will pay an extremely high price in deaths and destroyed lives. All so that we can close down again and find ourselves back in crisis mode.These guidelines (which are rooted in politics to a far greater extent than science) are worse than useless because they promise “safety.” That is a promise they absolutely cannot deliver. But school boards, teachers, parents, students, and communities won't realize the promise was empty until it is too late. In the title I call these guidelines “absurdities.” The better term would be “atrocities.”_______________After a career in astrophysics I turned my eye to helping people and organizations find success in the face of rapid change. Reach out and we can explore possibilities. You can follow my thoughts on Facebook (facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.Hester), youTube, and at http://www.jeff-hester.com.
Stepping back a claim about COVID-19 data Jeff Hester 2020-07-31 | I’m taking down a post from a couple of days ago talking about a discontinuity in COVID-19 case data on the day the CDC handed over responsibility for the data to the HHS.In part my decision stemmed from the fact that when I removed Texas and Florida from the data the size of the effect decreased significantly. In part my decision stemmed from the fact that I could not identify a clear mechanism whereby the HHS could influence case data in a way that would not become apparent in data independently reported to states. I remain uneasy about the data, but want to be careful not to overstate a claim.But the most troubling thing for me was that some saw my video as calling into question the integrity of our public health infrastructure or the importance of masks, social distancing and other nonpharmacological interventions in controlling the pandemic. That is the last thing that I would want to do.Right now our lives are in the hands of those who are working to protect the public health. And the evidence supporting the effectiveness of measures such as masks and social distancing is overwhelming.The question of political interference here remains. One of the biggest problems right now is restricted testing data. We KNOW that Trump is interfering in that one. He told us. So, while I'm still uncomfortable with what is happening at HHS, I worry that I was distracting from the issues that are most important at the moment.
Episode 020 – Social, Emotional and Remote Jeff Hester 2020-07-24 | Instead of pretending schools are going to open in the fall, how about we put our heads together and think about how we can best meet the social, emotional and educational needs of kids who are not in the classroom. Follow me on Facebook: facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.HesterSign up for my Newsletter, follow my thoughts, and contact me about working together at: http://www.jeff-hester.com
COVID-19: Thoughts About School Reopening for Boards Jeff Hester 2020-07-21 | If you pay attention both to where the science of COVID is going and the practical realities of running schools, there is a clear answer for what most school districts should be doing this fall. Unfortunately it is not the answer most people probably would like to hear.http://www.jeff-hester.com
Episode 019 – Reading and Riting and Resting in Peace Jeff Hester 2020-07-17 | As we get closer to the date that schools around the nation are supposed to open, the question about what to do in the face of COVID-19 is become less hypothetical. Everyone wants kids back in school, and there are all manner of ideas about how things might be made safer. But what does that look like when faced with the reality of actual kids and actual teachers spending their days in enclosed spaces doing what kids and teachers do.Follow me on Facebook: facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.HesterSign up for my Newsletter, follow my thoughts, and contact me about working together at: http://www.jeff-hester.com
Join us for a live conversation about COVID and Schools Jeff Hester 2020-07-16 | This afternoon, Thursday July 16 at 5:30 EDT, 2:30 PDT Jeri Reed and I will be talking life about the hot topic of the moment: COVID-19 and school reopenings. We’ll be watching comments and questions, and will take the conversation where it goes. I hope you’ll join us!Find the live feed here:youtu.be/nO-kz7axd5E
COVID-19: Understanding the Past and Predicting the Future in Four Easy Steps Jeff Hester 2020-07-14 | You don't have to be an epidemiologist to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic is behaving, what the numbers mean, and even what the likely effects of different policies will be. The pandemic is like a book that you just have to learn how to read.The key lies in applying four simple steps. (1) When did it happen? Today's numbers tell you what the disease was doing two to three weeks ago. Fail to understand that and you've struck out before you even realize you are standing at the plate.(2) What happened? Once you learn to recognize the true timeline of the disease, the consequences of policies and events become obvious.(3) What does it mean? It's all about the Reproduction Number.(4) What will happen? Once you understand how to use the first three steps to make sense of the data, it isn't that hard to look at a situation and get a feeling where things are probably headed.I will warn you, though. Once you appreciate how utterly understandable and predictable the course of this thing is, you will find yourself throwing things at the talkings heads on the television and wondering if we actually look as stupid as they think we are.Follow me on Facebook: facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.HesterSign up for my Newsletter, follow my thoughts, and contact me about working together at: http://www.jeff-hester.com
Interview for CBS DC affiliate WUSA9 - COVID, Virginia and Schools Jeff Hester 2020-07-13 | Following a weekend presentation to a Virginia teachers group, WUSA9 in Washington DC contacted me to ask me about my thoughts on COVID and schools. My message was basically, "Virginia is about to see an outbreak, and anybody who tries to open a school district is going to see it blow up in their face."Follow me on Facebook: facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.HesterSign up for my Newsletter, follow my thoughts, and contact me about working together at: http://www.jeff-hester.com
COVID-19 in Virginia: Get ready for the next outbreak. Jeff Hester 2020-07-12 | Last week (July 5) I made a presentation to the Virginia chapter of National Educators United about how to make sense of COVID data. In that presentation I predicted that they should expect to see an upturn in reported cases due to infections following the Phase 2 reopening earlier in June.In this video I look at the current numbers and, unfortunately, find that they confirm my prediction of an upturn. Looking ahead, Virginia entered Phase 3 of their reopening on July 1. In other states that have attempted Phase 3 reopenings infections climbed steeply. California's current spike, for example, is a consequence of their Phase 3 reopening a couple of weeks earlier.My prediction is that Virginia will continue to see its case numbers rise for the next week or thereabouts, at which point they will see their numbers begin to rise more steeply. This one will probably cross the threshhold of what might be called an outbreak.I hope I'm wrong. But I don't think that I am. But I've made my prediction. Time will tell.
COVID-19 and why Virginia Schools Probably Wont Open in August Jeff Hester 2020-07-05 | Today's COVID numbers tell us about infections from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Changes we make today won't show up in the numbers until 2 or 3 weeks from now. Any time you try to push things faster than this slow, unwieldy pace COVID can go off again like a bomb. In this short video -- part of an upcoming Emergency Town Hall hosted by the Fairfax Education Association -- I explain why it is very unlikely Virginia schools will be opening for face to face instruction in August.
COVID-19 by the Numbers: Are Virginia schools safe to reopen? Jeff Hester 2020-07-03 | I was invited by the Fairfax Education Association in Fairfax Virginia to talk to their membership about the conditions school openings might face should they try to open this fall. (At 17:25 I saw "New Jersey" when I mean "Virginia").(As an aside, for ease of presentation I took reported cases in Virginia at face value and did not talk about testing, which can have an effect on case numbers. But since late May test numbers have been relatively flat, while both percent of tests that are positive and numbers of symptomatic patients follow the same trends I discuss.)A common pattern has cropped up in states across the nation, and in national numbers themselves. Mitigation measures push the reproduction number R low enough to bring down cases. Then, when R ~ 1, states reopen, R increases, and cases spike. The fact that Virginia is opening up further when cases are flat is troubling.The purpose of the talk is to address the advisability of opening schools. For a host of obvious and some less obvious reasons it is important to be cautious with schools. You really do want it to be comfortably OK before schools open. Those are not the institutions we should be using to test the waters.Follow me on Facebook: facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.HesterSign up for my Newsletter, follow my thoughts, and contact me about working together at: http://www.jeff-hester.com
Episode 018 – A New Beginning Jeff Hester 2020-07-03 | Sometimes other commitments get in the way. Astronomy Magazine is short handed, so Dave and Alison have had to step away from Scientists Stuck Inside. But we are keeping it going with new faced. Michael Bailey is a Shakespearean Actor, a stand-up comic, the best Gifted and Talented teacher on the planet, and an all-around brilliant guy with a passion for science. Jeri Reed is an astrophysicist, and former student of mine, who these days is involved in theater and choreography. She is also a delight. Join us as the SS SSI sails on!
Episode 017 – Science vs Spin Jeff Hester 2020-06-26 | People who spend their lives trying to figure out what is real are often puzzled when other people start throwing BS by the bucketful to try to make that hard-won knowledge go away.
COVID-19 By The Numbers: Why trying to open Arizona schools this fall is a really bad idea. Jeff Hester 2020-06-25 | Plans to open Arizona schools in the fall rely on the assumption that August 2020 is going to look pretty much the same as June 2020. Nothing could be further from the truth.As of June 24, COVID-19 cases in Arizona have been growing exponentially for several weeks. Currently the daily number of new cases is doubling every week. That exponential growth can be seen not only in case numbers, but in hospitalizations and ICU bed usage. As of this writing, ICU beds in Arizona are already 90% full, which means Arizona's healthcare system is about to be overwhelmed. What is going to happen, then, when demand doubles, and then doubles again?Based on observed exponential growth, as well as models published by the Modeling Emerging Threats to Arizona team at ASU, at least 1.5% of the population of the state will be infected on the day schools are supposed to open. That means that teachers and staff would have to go to work and spend their days in close contact with students knowing that there are likely dozens of carriers of COVID-19 on campus.Schools are not just any environment. Quoting the June 16 Wall Street Journal article, "How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There is a Growing Concensus:""...the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly—or singing, in one famous case—maximize the risk.”Close-up, person-to-person interactions, extended periods of time, poorly ventilated areas, loud talking, singing... If that is not a perfect description of a classroom, it is unclear what would be.There is no way to responsibly send faculty, staff and students into such circumstances. In addition to the health risk to those at the school, schools would without question become spreading centers with a large preponderance of young, asymptomatic carriers. The consequences for the community as a whole would be dire.If schools open in August for face to face classes, many people will die as a result. Most of those people will never have set foot on a campus and will never know that the chain of infection that got them ran through a school.
Episode 016 – Asymptomatic and Airborne Jeff Hester 2020-06-19 | Why does COVID-19 spread like wildfire? In part because sometimes just being in the same room is enough.
Episode 015 – Living in Interesting Times Jeff Hester 2020-06-12 | "May you live in interesting times" is not actually an ancient Chinese curse, but it certainly applies!
Episode 014 – Keeping the Monster in the Box Jeff Hester 2020-06-05 | Riots surrounding the death of George Floyd dominate the news of the moment, even as across the nation states are removing restrictions meant to slow the spread of COVID-19. But the virus doesn't care about social justice, economics, or political expediency. The virus just does what the virus does.Where do we stand with COVID? Is the pandemic really behind us? What tools do we have at our disposal to monitor and protect the public health? What should we expect from here?
Episode 013 - Dunning-Kruger, Meet COVID Jeff Hester 2020-06-02 | Riots, Space-X, COVID's comeback... we talk about a lot of what's going on in the world right now. But the focus is on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. People who know very little about a topic often imagine that they know far more than they do. Sometimes that's not big deal. But when a Business Professor from a prestigious university wraps herself in her institution's reputation and makes a viral video claiming that all of the world's epidemiologists and immunologists are wrong, and that no one really has to worry about COVID... Well, that's another matter.(Jeff's rebuttal to Anne Marie Knott's video about COVID is here: youtu.be/OpoyUcuYSLs )See you next time at scientistsstuckinside.com
COVID and the Dunning-Kruger Effect: A Washington University Business Prof makes a fool of herself. Jeff Hester 2020-05-29 | This is a debunking of a video titled, "Why you haven't caught COVID-19." It is a virtual talk given by Prof. Anne Marie Knott to the faculty and staff of the Olin School of Business at Washington University. The video had been viewed 112,000 times before I posted. A short time after my own post, that video was made private.I was not born yesterday, so I did take the trouble of downloading a copy of that video before I posted. YOU CAN FIND A COPY OF THE ORIGINAL VIDEO HERE: youtu.be/h0MsxKlIjbA(Here is the original URL: youtu.be/sTFOsQfDFi8)Something that I did not mention in my rebuttal: The last line of the last slide read, "Urge your Senators, Rep, Governor, Mayor to reopen."I have since spoken with the Dean's Office at the Olin School of Business at Washington University and they confirmed that the video was, indeed, posted by Professor Knott.__________________COVID and the Dunning-Kruger Effect: Dissecting the train wreck that happens when a business professor driven by motivated reasoning, wishful thinking and profound ignorance decides that she knows more about epidemiology and immunology than a whole world full of epidemiologists and immunologists.There is nothing subtle here. Normally I would just laugh and shake my head at such a gross misinterpretation and misrepresentation of facts and truly astounding degree of ignorance of even the most basic principles of epidemiology. This is the stuff of the tinfoil hat crowd.I wouldn't have bothered to debunk this thing, were it not for the fact that she has something over 112,000 views as I write. She is using the banner of a prestigious university to spread a message that is as laughably absurd as it is profoundly dangerous.For those who know a bit about epidemiology, her basic claim is that the whole world fails to recognize that really COVID-19 has a reproduction number of 0.5 instead of 2.4, that 82% of the population was immune from the get go, that mitigations have changed absolutely nothing, and that we should just all go back to our normal lives because nothing will happen.And how could that be? Well, after a cover slide caveat that "I am not an epidemiologist," she goes on to claim that all of the epidemiologists in the world just don't understand the numbers as well as she does, and that somehow all of the immunologists in the world failed to recognize that 80% of the population couldn't get it.No. I am not exaggerating. Yes. Really. It is that bad.The truly frightening thing is that people who don't know any better are listening to her and imagining that she knows what she is talking about. If people hear this and believe it, they are going to do things that will put themselves and others in the ICU and the morgue.This was apparently given as some kind of town hall event. How could it possibly be that any group of reasonable academicians in any field could listen to this atrocity and not be offended?A stupidly bad talk that demonstrates the speaker's ignorance is one thing. A stupidly bad talk that tells people it is safe to ignore precautions during a global pandemic is quite another. Knott's talk is beyond irresponsible. It is also an embarrassment to Professor Knott, to the Olin School of Business, and to Washington University. If this video is an any way representative of Washington University's standards for honesty and integrity, they have a very, very serious problem.
Episode 012 - What Happens Next? Jeff Hester 2020-05-22 | A day to take stock...Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 011 - Mental Health: The Other Side of the COVID Coin Jeff Hester 2020-05-18 | We have a guest this afternoon (Monday, May 18). Jennifer Klesman is a therapist at Cityscape Counseling in Chicago. She is a licensed clinical social worker who treats adults and adolescents struggling with issues that include anxiety, depression, trauma, gender identity, relationships, and general life stress. We'll be talking about the challenges of living in the time of COVID. Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 010 - Relativity and Recovery Redux Jeff Hester 2020-05-14 | Twisted time for twisted timesJoin us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 009 What does recovered really mean? Jeff Hester 2020-05-11 | Life "recovered" from the impact that killed the dinosaurs, but that shouldn't be confused with "got back to normal."Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 008: Cosmos, Climate, and COVID How computer models help us understand the world Jeff Hester 2020-05-07 | Lift the hood and the computer models used to predict a pandemic look an awful lot like the models used to model everything from the climate, to stars, to how airplanes fly, to climate, and everything in between. A few days ago the most cited models of the COVID pandemic changed their predictions of deaths through the summer from 60,000 to 135,000. How do models work, what do they tell us, and what does it mean when they change?Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 7 – Scientists Stuck Inside Jeff Hester 2020-05-04 | Monday, May 4: Complexity and ChaosJoin us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 006 - Extrasolar Visitors, Extra COVID Deaths Jeff Hester 2020-05-04 | It turns out that visitors from other planetary systems might be kind of common...And speaking of things that are more common than we thought they were, what to make of all of those extra COVID-19 related deaths? What's the difference between saying a death "wouldn't have happened were it not for COVID," and saying that death "was caused by COVID?" The answer is probably "not much" from the perspective of the hapless victim.Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 6 – Scientists Stuck Inside - Extrasolar Visitors and Extra COVID Deaths Jeff Hester 2020-04-30 | Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 005 - Multiverses and Madness Jeff Hester 2020-04-28 | This video is about Episode 005 - Multiverses and MadnessJoin us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 5: Multiverses and Madness Jeff Hester 2020-04-27 | Is our universe the only one, or only one among many? Plus the madness of shouting "Everybody back in the water!" when the viral sharks are still circling.Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
SSI Episode 004 Life, the Universe and Everything - Abridged Version Jeff Hester 2020-04-26 | The stuff of which we are made, the origins of life in the universe, and the irresponsibility of wishful thinking in a crisis. Enjoy!Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 4: We Are Stardust Jeff Hester 2020-04-23 | The face that looks back at you from the mirror is the stuff of stars, cosmic explosions, and colliding neutron stars. Space is a violent place, and we are its progeny.
Episode 3: Pillars and Protests Jeff Hester 2020-04-20 | We'll lead off with some fun chat about Jeff Hester's Hubble Space Telescope "Pillars of Creation" image, then see where it goes from there!
SSI Episode 002: Why its best not to move back into a building that is still on fire. Jeff Hester 2020-04-16 | We start with a bit of fun, talking about the challenges facing standard cosmological models. Science works best when there are loose ends to pursue. Then eventually we get around to some lively conversation about what comes next in the COVID world. It is clear that the notion of "getting back to normal" is absurd. It is equally clear that "reopening" too soon would have calamitous human consequences. There are ways forward that provide for the health, safety and welfare of the populace without having to face either human or economic devastation, but to find those paths necessarily means those previously at the top will lose some of their wealth and power. In the face of that, will we find the will to invent the possible, or are we destined to endure disaster?Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 2: There is plenty of forest left to burn Jeff Hester 2020-04-16 | What happens when you walk away from a fire before it is all the way out? Looks like we might be about to find out.
Scientists Stuck Inside: Episode 001 Houston, we have a problem Jeff Hester 2020-04-14 | It's the 50th Anniversary of the infamous "Houston, we have a problem" moment during Apollo 13. Who could ask for a more propitious day for three astronomers to kick off a livestream/podcast talk show sharing their COVID-era thoughts about the world? Tune in for relaxed, informal conversation, cool science, intelligent straight talk, and the kind of low-key irreverence that times like these demand. How better to ride out a global pandemic?In this first episode we talk a bit about what Apollo 13 was like from both inside the capsule and from the cheap seats. Then, after some truly serious name dropping we turn our attention to the question of the day: "When can we get back to normal after COVID?" We hate to break it to you, but the answer to that question is, "never." But is that necessarily such a bad thing?Join us live, Monday and Thursday afternoons at 5:30 EDT, 4:30 CDT, 2:30 PDT at http://www.scientistsstuckinside.com!
Episode 1: Debunking the Notion of Normal Jeff Hester 2020-04-13 | The question on everyone's mind these days is the same. "When will things get back to normal?" The answer is easy. "They won't."But is that necessarily such a bad thing?
Response to William Lane Craigs assertion that morality requires God. Jeff Hester 2019-04-09 | My approach to morality and ethics begins with a current understanding of the nature of human mind, which undermines the very notion of "God-given" values. I argue that what theists claim to be "objective morals" are in fact rooted in the mandates of our evolved brains, and anything but objective. Only by giving up the notion of an innate God-given sense of right and wrong are we able to arrive at objective and defensible moral and ethical standards.
Opening comments for dialogue with Christian apologist William Lane Craig. Jeff Hester 2019-04-09 | This is a run-through of my opening comments in my upcoming dialogue with Christian apologist William Lane Craig. The dialogue will begin at 7:00 EDT, Tuesday, April 9, 2019. The dialogue itself can be found (live or after-the-fact) at http://www.jeff-hester.com/unreasonable-faith
