Charles Murray on Economic and Moral Life in America Conversations with Bill Kristol 2026-09-26 | Charles Murray on Economic and Moral Life in America
Anne Applebaum on Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the US Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-06-14 | For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 11:47): Update on UkraineChapter 2 (11:47 - 48:07): Russia, Europe, AmericaWhere do things stand in Ukraine? How are European countries faring? How should we think about the challenge from autocracies around the globe? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. Applebaum shares her perspective on recent developments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe including the recent EU elections. She points to Ukraine’s continued resilience in the face of serious challenges, and Europe and America’s support for Ukraine in spite of domestic pressures against it. But she notes that we only have begun to think seriously about the challenges from autocracies, and that much more needs to be done to defend democracy at home and abroad. As Applebaum puts it: “Communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is… these aren’t countries that share an ideology... but they do share a common interest—undermining us—and by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world.”
James Carville: Biden Needs a Forward-Looking Economic Message Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-06-07 | Democratic political strategist James Carville observes that the Biden campaign's claim that the economy is better than it feels will backfire if voters don't agree. Carville’s advice is Biden should focus on a forward-looking economic agenda that promises Americans tangible improvements if they re-elect him. #shorts #2024elections
James Carville on why Biden should focus on MAGA, not just Trump Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-06-02 | Veteran political strategist James Carville suggests that Biden should campaign against the MAGA movement rather than just Trump, because MAGA is significantly less popular than Trump is. He explains that many Trump voters are uncomfortable identifying with the broader MAGA movement—and Biden need those voters to defeat Trump. #shorts #trump
James Carville on the Democrats Problems Replicating the 2020 Coalition Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-06-02 | Veteran political strategist James Carville considers polling data that suggest younger voters and black voters are less likely to turn out for Biden as in 2020, and what the campaign must do to shore up a winning coalition in 2024. #shorts
James Carville on How the Verdict in Trumps New York Trial Could Impact the 2024 Election Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-30 | Veteran political strategist James Carville discusses the potential effects of the verdict in Trump's trial on the presidential election. He emphasizes that while a guilty verdict wouldn’t affect the loyalty of Trump’s MAGA base, it could make some key swing voters question support for Trump and benefit Biden. #shorts #trump
James Carville on Biden v. Trump Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-30 | State of the RaceFor more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 21:39): State of the RaceChapter 2 (21:39 - 51:37): The Biden CampaignWhere do things stand in the race as we head into the summer? According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville: “It’s clearly very close. There clearly can be events that can impact the outcome. But we’re headed to an election that not many people are very excited about.” Carville argues that the Biden campaign needs a message on the economy that is forward-looking, and suggests it isn’t enough for the president to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. Carville considers how abortion and extremism in the MAGA movement are potentially winning issues that the Biden campaign might use more effectively. But he notes the Trump operation has been more disciplined than in 2016 or in 2020, and reflects on the limitations to date of Biden’s campaign as incumbent. Kristol and Carville also consider how the outcome of Trump’s New York trial, a debate in June (if it happens!), the conventions, and other upcoming events could shape the race.
Robert Kagan on the peculiar success of Donald Trump Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-20 | Historian Robert Kagan observes that while there have been other anti-liberal candidates in recent times—beginning with the birther conspiracy in 2011, Donald Trump has proven to his base that he has the will to disregard norms and to defy the liberal order.
Robert Kagan on the dominance of anti-liberalism in the 1920s Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-20 | Historian and foreign policy scholar Robert Kagan explains that anti-liberalism is a persistent feature in US history. In the 1920s, anti-immigration sentiment, white identity politics, and sympathy for authoritarian figures were prevalent in America.
Robert Kagan on American anti-liberalism, from the 1920s to the 2020s Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-15 | On a long tradition...For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 39:37): Anti-Liberalism and American HistoryChapter 2 (39:37 - 1:19:21): From the 1920s to the 2020sIs today's anti-liberalism a new phenomenon in American politics? What might earlier eras in US history have to teach us? To discuss these questions, we are joined, again, by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Drawing on his new book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America Apart—Again, Kagan argues that we “don’t realize that the [anti-liberal] movement we’re looking at today has been visible in every generation since the founding.” Kagan draws particular attention to the 1920s, when anti-immigration sentiment, white identity politics, and sympathy for authoritarian figures were prevalent in America. Kagan notes that the MAGA movement can be understood as a part of a long history of anti-liberalism that runs counter to the tradition of the founders, yet remains endemic to American democracy. Liberal democracy in America thus needs to be fought for and cannot simply be assumed.
Frederick W. Kagan on the Potential for Ukrainian Counterattacks Against Russia Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-05 | Military historian and analyst Frederick W. Kagan considers the potential for Ukraine to launch counterattacks and regain initiative on the battlefield. #shorts #ukraine
Frederick W. Kagan: On the Threat of a Russian Offensive in Ukraine in Late May/June Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-05 | Military historian and analyst Frederick W. Kagan shares his perspective on the threat of a major Russian offensive operation in Ukraine in May or June. #shorts #ukraine
Frederick W. Kagan on Ukraine: Where Things Stand and Where They Might Be Going Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-05-01 | For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 36:52): The War in UkraineChapter 2 (36:52 - 1:07:50): A World at WarWhere do things stand in Ukraine? How will the recently-passed aid package help Ukraine on the battlefield? How does the war in Ukraine relate to rising threats from adversaries around the globe?To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan explains that Ukraine continues to face serious difficulties, in part because of a critical shortage of weapons as a result of the delay in US support. Yet the recently-passed aid package should bolster defenses against Russia’s anticipated assault this summer, and potentially help Ukraine to make gains in a counteroffensive early next year. Reflecting on the war and the world situation more broadly, Kagan points to the rising alliances among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a comprehensive threat to the free world. As he puts it: “These countries disagree about a lot of things. They don’t share a common ideology. But they do share a common enemy: us.… We have to recognize [it] is an entente that aims to take us down, and we have to be resisting every part of it.”
Mark Esper on What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for American Foreign Policy Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-23 | Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper discusses the potential impacts of a second term for Trump, who would be "unbound" by a the politics of re-election and could make drastic changes to US foreign policy. #shorts
Defense Secretary Mark Esper on the Months Leading Up to January 6th Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-23 | Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper recalls being worried about the potential for misuse of the military in the 2020 election, but never having envisioned something like an insurrection on Capitol Hill.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Providing Weapons, and Training Ukraine to NATO Standards Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-23 | Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper reflects on US assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of Javelin anti-tank missiles and extensive training to NATO standards. This support, he argues, played a crucial role in helping Ukraine counter the Russian invasion. #shorts #ukraine
Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Trump’s First Term—and a Second? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-18 | The former Secretary of Defense on foreign policy during Trump's first term, and what a second term might look like. For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 26:14): America and the WorldChapter 2 (26:14 -52:03): Trump's First Term—And a Second?What was it like serving in the Trump administration—and what might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense from 2019-2020. In this Conversation, Esper considers Ukraine, China, and other foreign policy challenges facing the United States, and reflects on his experience leading the Department of Defense during the Trump administration. Esper discusses accomplishments of American foreign policy during those years, but also raises deep concern about Trump’s attempts to politicize the military and his placing unsuitable personnel at the center of key foreign policy decision-making. And he argues that these tendencies, which were kept partially under wraps in the first term, could prove to be more alarming in a second—especially considering Trump’s increasing priority of selecting personnel based on personal loyalty. In a time of what he calls “great power competition with Russia and China,” Esper argues it is vital to have a strong foreign policy team in place—and dangerous to have a bad one.
David Axelrod: A Comparative Campaign against Trump is Bidens Advantage Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-10 | David Axlerod, Obama’s chief strategist for Obama’s presidential campaigns, discusses Donald Trump's focus on the past and on his personal vendettas, which create an opportunity for Joe Biden to present to voters a positive alternative. #shorts
David Axelrod on Why Biden Should Focus on Economic Issues Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-08 | David Axelrod, chief strategist for Obama’s presidential campaigns, shares his perspective on the messaging priorities for Biden's campaign. #shorts
David Axelrod on Biden v. Trump 2024 Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-03 | Where does the race stand? For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 39:01): Biden v. Trump 2024Chapter 2 (39:01 -1:05:23): X factors in the race?Where do things stand in the 2024 race? What campaign strategies might increase Joe Biden’s chances? How might the economy, the border, wars in Europe and the Middle East, Trump's trials, and third-party campaigns affect the race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Axelrod explains: “I would not count on the shock and dismay of people over the fact that [Trump] is under 91 criminal indictments, or that he engineered an insurrection, and so on. I think you’re going to get that [vote] for free, but it’s not enough to win.” According to Axelrod, the Biden campaign also should not be complacent in thinking that touting Biden’s achievements during his first term will be enough. Instead, he argues, Biden needs to focus on the economic challenges people face today—while framing the election as a contrast between Biden and Trump, and not simply as a referendum on Biden’s presidency.
James Carville on how identity politics is hurting the Democratic Party Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-04-01 | Veteran political adviser James Carville explains his concern that some coalitions of the Democratic Party have embraced identity politics to such a degree that it has become a liability. #shorts #identitypolitics
James Carville on the abundant talent within the Democratic party today Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-28 | Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville argues that the talent in today’s Democratic party rivals that of the 1980 Republicans—and that these skilled politicians are ready to pick up the mantle of leadership. #shorts #democrats
James Carville on the Impact of Party Identification of Young People: A Lifetime of Party Loyalty? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-26 | In this discussion, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville delves into the political science research on how the party preferences of young people often become lifelong party loyalties, influencing the political landscape for decades to come. #shorts #votingbehavior
Joe Klein on Trumps 80s Image: Marketing over Substance Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-19 | Veteran reporter, author, and analyst of American politics Joe Klein shares insights on Trump's 1980s reputation in New York. He explains that Trump was viewed as a joke by his fellow NY developers—a major marketer rather than a major player. #shorts #trump
Joe Klein: Can the Democrats Get Their Act Together? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-15 | Biden, Trump, the Democrats, and reflections on covering the Clintons and Barack Obama. For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 29:07): The Clintons, Obama, and the DemocratsChapter 2 (29:07 -1:07:40): Biden, Trump, and Identity PoliticsWhat do Joe Biden's successes, failures, and poll numbers reveal about the state of the Democratic Party today? In an era of polarization, can a spirit of moderation and bipartisanship be rediscovered? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Joe Klein, the veteran reporter, author, and analyst of American politics. Klein reflects on the changes of the Democratic Party over recent decades, including his perspective on the elevation of identity politics over unity. According to Klein, the Biden administration has been reasonably effective, but often has not been able to move the Democrats, or the country, beyond narrow interest-group politics. In the face of demagoguery from the Trump movement, Klein calls for a reinvigorated politics of moderation that can draw on the best traditions of both parties. Klein also shares fascinating personal reflections about reporting on and interacting with leading figures including Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Timothy Snyder: Ukraine’s contribution to the US—and the world Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-10 | Renowned historian Timothy Snyder delivers the powerful message that Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion is more than about their sovereignty. The Ukrainians are defending democracy, human rights, and the international rules-based order. Snyder's compelling perspective conveys how Ukraine's heroic fight benefits the entire free world. #ukraine #shorts
Timothy Snyder: US the Weak Link in Ukraines Fight for Victory Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-10 | Distinguished scholar Timothy Snyder delivers a sobering analysis of the War in Ukraine. While praising Ukraine's remarkable resilience, he asserts that the US currently is the "weak link" among allies. Snyder emphasizes that Ukraine's victory hinges on support from allies fully recognizing the stakes. #ukraine #shorts
Timothy Snyder on Ukraine, Russia, America—and What’s at Stake Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-03-08 | Two years into the war. For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 38:52): Ukraine, Russia, and AmericaChapter 2 (38:52 -55:28): What's at Stake?Two years into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What are Vladimir Putin’s war aims and how is attempting to undermine American commitment and resolve? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian and leading expert on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Noting impressive successes in recent weeks despite the lack of weapons supply from the United States, Snyder argues that “this is still a war that Ukraine can win. But it depends upon whether they have allies who are capable of seeing the political stakes and capable of behaving in a way which is consistent with simple military logic, which is what do you need to do to help your ally to win.” Persuading Americans that Ukraine cannot win, or even that a Russian victory would be preferable, is an integral part of Vladimir Putin’s war strategy. According to Snyder, Putin knows he cannot win on the battlefield if the West musters its collective energy to Ukrainian victory, but believes he can win by influencing our political debates about international engagement and support for the war. Defeating Russia, Snyder explains, is vital not only for Ukraine, but also for America and our allies. Kristol and Snyder also discuss how understanding fascism might help us to comprehend contemporary Russian politics and other political developments around the world.
Garry Kasparov on Putin and His Propaganda Machine: The “Merchant of Doubt” Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-02-27 | Chess Grandmaster and Human Rights Activist Garry Kasparov discusses the intricate web of disinformation and moral equivalence that defines Vladimir Putin's propaganda machine. In this Conversation from 2018 he explains that Putin's strategy is not about promoting a singular ideology but “selling chaos”: casting doubt on objective truths and fostering an atmosphere of uncertainty. #shorts #alexeinavalny
Garry Kasparov: Why there cant be common ground with dictators. Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-02-23 | Chess Champion and Human Rights Activist Garry Kasparov discusses why there can't be common ground with dictators because of their need for confrontation to justify their existence. #shorts #alexeinavalny
What might happen at the convention if Trump is not renominated? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-02-16 | Doug Sosnik and @ConversationsFCG discuss what might happen with the delegates at the Republican convention if Trump is not nominated.
What might happen at the convention if Biden is not renominated? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-02-16 | Doug Sosnik and @ConversationsFCG discuss what might happen with the delegates at the Democratic convention if Biden is not nominated.
Doug Sosnik on the State of the Race: Biden, Trump, and 2024 Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-02-15 | On the 2024 presidential race. For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 38:52): Biden v. TrumpChapter 2 (38:52 -1:13:05): A Polarized Nation?Where does the 2024 presidential race stand? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and how might such an unpopular rematch play out? What could happen if it's not Biden and Trump? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House and author of this week’s important New York Times op-ed, “Biden Can’t Count on Trump’s Unpopularity Anymore.” According to Sosnik, a Biden campaign strategy of aiming to “disqualify" Trump in the minds of voters is insufficient: Biden also must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health. Because the polarization in the country remains so intense, another Biden v. Trump race would be a world of “high floors and low ceilings.” According to Sosnik, Trump—now slightly ahead in the polls—is "bumping up to the high end of his ceiling,” while “Biden is bumping up to the bottom of his floor.” Kristol and Sosnik also consider the possible effects of a third-party challenge in a polarized environment, and how the race might take shape if either Trump or Biden is not renominated.
Whit Ayres on 2024: How Weak is Trump? What about Biden? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-02-02 | State of the 2024 raceFor more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 32:49): Biden v. Trump, again?Chapter 2 (32:49 - 59:11): A Volatile RaceSumming up the state of the 2024 race as we head toward the South Carolina primaries, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres says if the election were held today “Trump would win … in the Electoral College.” Yet despite Trump’s quasi-incumbency, 40-45% of the Republican primary electorate have voted for other candidates to date. According to Ayres, Trump suffers from some major weaknesses as a candidate, which leave an opening for Nikki Haley—and portend problems for Trump in a general election. But Biden may be even weaker. As Ayres puts it, “the vast majority of Americans, including a vast majority of Democrats, think Biden is just too old to serve effectively…and virtually no one in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time.” Despite the appearance of stability in the race—the increasing likelihood of a 2020 rematch—Ayres notes that a full 2/3 of Americans are unhappy with the choice between Biden and Trump. Kristol and Ayres consider how, beneath the surface, the 2024 contest may be unstable—with the potential for domestic and geopolitical events to intervene, and third-party challenges that could upend the race.
Aaron Friedberg on the China Challenge—and a World in Disarray Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-01-19 | On distinct but interlocking challenges in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 26:59): The China ChallengeChapter 2 (26: 59 - 1:20:59): A World in DisarrayWhat are the latest developments in the US-China relationship? What can we learn from recent elections in Taiwan? How does the CCP view the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. Considering the situation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, Friedberg argues that we face distinct but overlapping challenges from “increasingly aggressive authoritarian powers.” According to Friedberg, China has supported our rivals out of the belief that “conflict wears us down, deflects our attention from the Indo-Pacific region, and contributes to divisions emerging in this country over foreign policy in a way we haven’t seen in some years.” Kristol and Friedberg also discuss the deepening divisions in the country over foreign policy, and consider how a Republican or Democratic victory in November could affect the global security situation.
Peter Berkowitz on Israel at War: A Nation United and Divided Conversations with Bill Kristol 2024-01-05 | On Israel at war. For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 33:20): A Nation United and DividedChapter 2 (33: 20 - 1:01:51): Threats and DilemmasThree months after October 7 and amidst the ongoing war in Gaza, what is the national mood in Israel? How are the partisan divisions which gripped Israel in recent years playing out in wartime? How will this war change Israel? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Peter Berkowitz, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and longtime analyst of Israeli politics and society. Having just returned from Israel, Berkowitz observes that the enormity of the Hamas attack within Israel’s borders threatens a core principle of Zionism, which promised that Jews would be safe in their own homeland. In the face of this, Israelis have displayed a remarkable unity around the cause of defeating Hamas and returning the hostages. Yet the partisan divisions that existed before the war persist, along with a deep trauma and anger stemming from recriminations about the failure to protect the nation from the attack on October 7. Across the political elite and among Israelis more generally, there is a new reckoning about the profound threats Israel faces—not only from Hamas, but also from Hezbollah, and from Tehran.
Jonathan Karl: What Would a Second Trump Term Look Like? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-11-28 | Here we go again? For more Conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 34:53): How has Trump changed?Chapter 2 (34:53 - 1:10:49): Forecasting a Second Term Has Donald Trump changed since he first ran for president in 2015? How is he conducting his campaign now? What might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Karl, Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News and author of Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Trump’s 2024 campaign is "based on grievance and revenge,” according to Karl. And he is concerned “we’ll have a constitutional crisis from day one,” because many who upheld the rule of law during Trump's first term would not be around in a second. Karl shows how Trump and his closest advisers now are more determined to root out ordinary members of the bureaucracy who oppose Trump—the so-called “Deep State”—and to weaken Republicans who are not Trump acolytes. What could be a defining feature of the second term, Karl explains, is the highest offices of the land being selected based on personal loyalty to Donald Trump rather than on policy experience or competency.
Ray Takeyh on 10/7, Hamas, and Iran Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-11-17 | Iran and the Middle East warFor more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 24:45): Hamas and IranChapter 2 (30:48 - 1:06:57): Iran's Strategic AimsTo what extent was the Iranian regime involved in Hamas’s attack on Israel? What role are other Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah playing in the conflict—and where do things stand with Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh explains that the survival of Hamas remains a key strategic goal for Iran in sustaining its “axis of resistance” to threaten Israel. The regime also uses these paramilitary assets including Hezbollah, and especially its nuclear program, to deter the United States and Israel from responding directly against Iran. Takeyh also reflects on Iran’s relationship with Russia and China, its role in the Ukraine War, and the threat to global order posed by the alliance of authoritarian states.
Eric Edelman on the New World Disorder Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-10-31 | On the interrelated crises in the Middle East, Russia, and China--and the dangers ahead. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 30:48): War in the Middle EastChapter 2 (30:48 - 1:11:09): The New Global DisorderSince Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel on October 7, the Middle East is the site of a new war, which could escalate in ways that are unpredictable and dangerous. In Europe, the Ukraine War grinds on—with an outcome very much in doubt. China continues to threaten US allies in East Asia. Decisions, calculations, and miscalculations made in Washington, Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing could unleash still greater geopolitical and military threats at any moment. As Eric Edelman notes, we are facing “the most complex and dangerous moment in international security since the end of the Second World War.” In this Conversation, Edelman explains how the wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as tensions in East Asia, are very much interconnected, and threaten American interests and the global order. Faced with this extremely dangerous situation, Edelman argues for a concerted national strategy of supporting American allies in Europe and the Middle East, deterring enemies, and rapidly building up America’s industrial and military strength. Kristol and Edelman also discuss how political disorder at home threatens our ability to deal with the threats we face abroad.
Jason Furman on the Economy: Where Are We Now—and Where Might We Be Going? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-10-11 | On the economy. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 23:50): Where are we now? Chapter 2 (23:50 - 55:18): Inflation and public opinionWhat is the state of the economy today? To discuss, we are joined, again, by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. In this Conversation, Furman highlights a significant paradox of the current moment. On one hand, important indicators point to a reasonably strong economy: inflation has been slowing, wages have been rising, and unemployment remains low. On the other hand, Americans remain frustrated about prices and concerned about the future. To Furman, this disconnect speaks to the inability of the data to capture fully the psychological aspects of how inflation and other factors in the economy affect expectations. Furman also shares his concerns about a possible debt crisis if the US cannot get its fiscal house in order.
Fred Kagan on Ukraine: Where Things Stand Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-09-29 | An update on where things stand in the war. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 37:16): Ukraine's CounteroffensiveChapter 2 (37:16 - 1:10:38): Ukraine and the WestWhere do things stand in Ukraine? What are the battlefield results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive so far, and what military and political outcomes might follow? Why should the US and allies continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan presents a granular account of recent fighting around eastern Ukraine and Crimea. He notes Ukraine’s counteroffensive has moved slowly, but explains why the war has not reached a stalemate: “The Russians have not shown the ability to stop the Ukrainians from making advances.” Nonetheless, the situation remains uncertain, and Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to continue to support Ukraine. Kristol and Kagan also discuss the debate about the war in the United States, the effects of Russian propaganda, and consider what we’ve learned from the war about the resolve of the Ukrainians and the West.
James Carville on Biden, Trump, the Democrats, and 2024 Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-09-14 | Carville returns to share his thoughts on the state of the race. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 30:23): Biden and TrumpChapter 2 (30:23 - 1:05:48): The Democrats and 2024It’s 14 months before the presidential election. With a Trump v. Biden matchup on the horizon, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville begins with a bracing assessment: “If this election was this November…Biden would be a betting underdog.” In this Conversation, James Carville shares his concerns about Biden’s candidacy and his perspective on the race ahead. Should other Democrats challenge Biden and get into the primary race? Is Trump inevitable on the Republican side? What factors might confound our expectations? In this witty, wide-ranging, and thoughtful Conversation—our 250th episode!—Carville and Kristol reflect on these questions and other factors that might upend our politics as we head toward the 2024 presidential election.
Stephen Rosen on the China Challenge Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-09-07 | The Harvard emeritus professor of foreign policy shares his perspective. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 29:04): The China ChallengeChapter 2 (29:04 - 1:12:47): Deterrence and CompetitionHow has American strategic analysis and policy planning toward China developed over the last few years? What parallels can we draw between the early Cold War and America’s geopolitical situation today? How has the war in Ukraine affected US-China competition? To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Stephen Rosen, Harvard professor emeritus of international relations. Rosen argues that American government and civil society are beginning to take geopolitical competition with China much more seriously. He notes that, much like the Korean War in the Cold War, Putin’s War in Ukraine could serve as a galvanizing event that could lead the US to make the kind of economic and political commitments necessary to deter China in the long term. In a wide-ranging and historically rich Conversation, Rosen explains why talent, technological innovation, and forward-thinking military planning all will be essential for America to meet the China challenge.
Whit Ayres on the State of the Race: Is It Still Trumps Party? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-08-25 | Where do things stand after the first debate? Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 28:08): After the First DebateChapter 2 (28:08 - 53:30): Is Trump inevitable?Where do things stand in the Republican primary field after the first debate? How strong is Trump? How have the other candidates done so far? How might the Trump trials affect the race as we head into primary season? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. Though Trump remains the strong favorite, Ayres argues that the forthcoming trials make the race more unpredictable than it might seem from simply reading current polling data. Ayres and Kristol also assess the debate performances and candidacies of Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy—and consider what each might have to do to break out in the race and take on the frontrunner.
Ryan Goodman on The Trump Trial: What Might Happen? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-08-04 | On what might happen in the Jan 6 Trump trial, who will testify, and what evidence might be presented. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 31:11): The Trump TrialChapter 2 (31:11 - 59:44): How Might It Play Out?How significant is the indictment of Donald Trump in the Jan 6 case? How might the case play out in court, and in our politics? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment in the Jan 6 case is a momentous development in the legal maelstrom Trump faces, with potentially significant consequences for the 2024 election. Goodman argues that the Jan 6 case likely will differ dramatically from the Congressional hearings—not least because key figures including former Vice President Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows will be compelled to testify in court. Goodman suggests that the prosecution may succeed in “flipping” some in Trump’s inner circle to become cooperating witnesses in the case. Cautioning that much remains unknown about the timeline, and the political ramifications of it, Goodman argues it’s plausible a trial and verdict might occur before the 2024 elections.
Googles Royal Hansen on Artificial Intelligence—Where Are We, and Where Are We Going? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-07-26 | What is the Future of AI?Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 16:58): Major Advances in AIChapter 2 (16:58 - 59:59): The Future of Artificial IntelligenceWith the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry. To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.
Whit Ayres: Is Trump Inevitable? Do Any of the Other Republicans Have a Chance? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-07-13 | State of the 2024 Race. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 30:00): Trump and the RepublicansChapter 2 (30:00 - 1:13:45): Trump v. Biden Again?Where do things stand in the Republican primary field? Is Trump inevitable, or could DeSantis or another candidate prevail? What do voters, donors, and party officials think of the prospects of a Trump v. Biden rematch as we head toward 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. The broad contours of the race on the Republican side, by the numbers, have been remarkably stable since November—and at the same time the months ahead could be unusually unpredictable. According to Ayres, Trump must be considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination especially as Ron DeSantis, who had gained ground after his landslide victory in the Florida gubernatorial race, has faded in recent months. Nonetheless, Ayres contends that Trump’s nomination is far from a foregone conclusion. The current and possible criminal indictments of Trump could matter, and other possible Republicans could gain momentum. Ayres and Kristol consider the prospects of the various Republican candidates, discuss possible surprises over the next six months, as well as the question of Biden's renomination—and reflect on why 2024 may not follow familiar patterns of past elections.
Doug Sosnik: The Realignment in American Politics and its Implications Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-06-27 | What are the implications for the 2024 elections, and the future?Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 34:06): The Classified Documents IndictmentChapter 2 (34:06 - 1:16:57): Are other Indictments Coming?How did American politics become so polarized—and what are the key "fault lines” today? In an evenly-divided electorate, what are the implications for the political parties as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond? Is there a way out of hyper-partisanship and deadlock, and toward moderation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director for President Bill Clinton and author of a recent memo “The Road to a Political Realignment in American Politics." As Sosnik puts it: “In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees – particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the ‘diploma divide.’ Whereas in the past the axiom that ‘all politics is local’ rang true, these days the more accurate truism is that ‘all politics is national.’” Sosnik draws out the implications of this divide for 2024 and beyond. He argues that the nature and intensity of our polarization means the premium for attracting swing voters, and not repelling them, is greater than ever. In sum, he argues that—more than any other single factor—the voters who decide the next elections will put a premium on candidates who are “not crazy”!
Ryan Goodman: Does Donald Trump Really Face Legal—and Political—Jeopardy? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-06-15 | Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 47:27): The Classified Documents IndictmentChapter 2 (47:27 - 1:06:51): Are other Indictments Coming?What is the core of the federal indictment case against former President Trump for mishandling classified documents? How could the case play out in the legal system, and in our politics? Are future indictments likely? Could these matters alter the political landscape in advance of the 2024 elections? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment of Donald Trump is a momentous development. The case against Trump will be complex, Goodman argues, because of uncertainties—the presiding judge, the classified nature of the material, and how close we are to 2024—which could introduce some wild "zigs and zags" to the case. And yet, he argues, it is very possible there could be a trial next summer. Goodman argues that other indictments likely are forthcoming, too. Cases against Trump for his role in January 6th, as well as electoral fraud, might also be heard in advance of the election, possibly featuring testimony from key figures in Trump’s inner circle like Mike Pence and Mark Meadows. Much remains unknown, but Goodman contends that there will be much to follow on these matters in the months and year ahead.
Leah Boustan on Immigration: Then and Now Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-05-31 | Why immigration remains an American success story. Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 44:00): Immigration, Then and NowChapter 2 (44:00 - 1:21:46): Immigration and AssimiliationHow should we think about immigration in American life today? How well do today’s immigrants do—economically and culturally—compared to the immigrants of previous eras? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Princeton economist Leah Boustan. Drawing on rigorous analysis of data for her important co-authored work in economic history "Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success," Boustan explains a perhaps surprising fact: despite all of the differences between contemporary America and that of past generations, immigrants today are faring similarly to previous immigrants “in terms of how quickly their earnings grow after they arrive in the country, and especially in terms of how well their children are doing in their own upward mobility and earnings.” Moreover, Boustan explains how today’s immigrants are assimilating culturally in much the same way as in earlier eras. Boustan considers the challenges and benefits of immigration in the context of the broader economy—and pushes back against arguments for the restricting of immigration that rely excessively on analysis and data that consider only very short-term implications. Above all, she argues that immigration, then and now, has been in the United States an astonishing story of success.
A.B. Stoddard on 2024: On Trump, DeSantis, Biden....And Chaos? Conversations with Bill Kristol 2023-05-17 | How Crazy Will It Get?Click "Show more" to view all chapters. For more conversations, visit http://www.conversationswithbillkristol.orgChapter 1 (00:15 - 38:03): Trump and DeSantisChapter 2 (38:03 - 1:22:54): Biden and the DemocratsWhat did we learn about Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign from last week’s CNN town hall? How should we assess Ron DeSantis’s prospective candidacy so far? What are Joe Biden’s strengths and weaknesses as we head into the 2024 race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. Stoddard shares her perspective on why Trump remains the force in the Republican field—and how DeSantis has yet to live up to early expectations. Turning to the Democrats, Stoddard explains how outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms helped Joe Biden to secure a lock on his party’s nomination. Nonetheless, she notes that many Democrats remain jittery about Biden’s age and prospects. As things stand, she argues, the improbable rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump seems likely despite being unpopular across a broad swath of the American public.
