Mick West
Is This Pyramid UFO just Bokeh?
updated
This was a talk I originally gave for the Center for Inquiry's "Skeptical Inquirer Presents" on April 27, 2023
centerforinquiry.org/video/videogame-science-and-ufos-mick-west
Reference:
Gimbal Analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=qsEjV8DdSbs
GoFast Analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=PLyEO0jNt6M (no including wind)
FLIR1 (Tic-Tac) motion analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=U1di0XIa9RQ
Aguadilla Analysis: youtu.be/0fho4YyXWfE?t=86
Raw videos:
On April 27, the US Navy released official versions of these three UFO videos. All videos are the same length as older versions. FLIR1 is slightly higher bitrate than the TTSA version, but worse quality than the 2007 F4 version, even though F4 is lower resolution. GOFAST and GIMBAL videos are the same resolution at double the bitrate, which is significantly better. These versions of GIMBAL and GOFAST should be used for all future analyses, however, for FLIR, the 2007 leaked F4.MPG version via archive.org appears to be better quality.
Here are the direct links
https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/sites/g/files/jejdrs566/files/2020-04/1 - FLIR.mp4
https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/sites/g/files/jejdrs566/files/2020-04/3 - GOFAST.wmv
https://www.navair.navy.mil/foia/sites/g/files/jejdrs566/files/2020-04/2 - GIMBAL.wmv
This is the originally leaked FLIR1, which is better quality than the Navy version.
web.archive.org/web/20070209104330/http://www.vision-unlimited.de/extern/f4.mpg
High quality MP4s
metabunk.org/f/2-GIMBAL-CROP-HQ.mp4
metabunk.org/f/3-GOFAST-CROP-HQ.mp4 (used in Sitrec)
A slightly better crop of converted to MP4 video, no blank frames at the start (Used in Sitrec)
metabunk.org/sitrec-videos/public/2 - Gimbal-WMV2PRORES-CROP-428x428.mp4
FLIR1 aspect ratio corrected to 242x242 (was 242x216) (used in Sitrec)
metabunk.org/sitrec-videos/public/f4-aspect-corrected-242x242-was-242x216.mp4
4PM - Mick and Marik have a friendly discussion about their differences.
5PM - Jeremy Snow (ATFLIR technician) joins us to try to resolve some technical details.
He recently interviewed Sean Kirkpatrick, the former head of the Pentagon UFO investigation office, AARO.
We chat about UFOs, National Security, Self-licking ice cream cones, and aliens.
Metabunk Discussion: metabunk.org/threads/the-chandelier-ufo.13307
Discussion with witness Michael Cincoski youtube.com/watch?v=uKkbw4rkOLo
Sitrec simulation: metabunk.org/sitrec/?sitch=jellyfish
Main Discussion Thread: metabunk.org/threads/jellyfish-ufo-from-tmzs-ufo-revolution.13304
Discussion of the Southern video: metabunk.org/threads/jellyfish-ufo-the-second-part-south-facing-footage.13308
Source for North video: youtube.com/watch?v=7bns_WhNAQM
Here, I demonstrate a tool I've been working on that lets you see what Starlink flares (reflection of sunlight from over the horizon) are happening from a particular location or a particular plane's route.
metabunk.org/sitrec/?sitch=nightsky
sciencewriters2023.org
The wildfire ignites the car, and then the car burns itself. It's as simple as that.
She then transitioned to academia, serving as a Naval Science Instructor and then a Military professor, teaching, among other things, Critical Thinking, Leadership, and Ethics.
Alex is best known to the public as one of the pilots who witnessed the famous Tic-Tac UFO when flying off the USS Nimitz in 2004. She’s appeared on 60-Minutes, CNN, and other shows to discuss her experience and its implication for flight safety and national security.
Original Dave Beaty Nimitz Recreation:
youtube.com/watch?v=PRgoisHRmUE&t=979s&pp=ygURbmltaXR6IGVuY291bnRlcnM%3D
Dave Beaty Nimitz recreation from the jet's perspective
youtube.com/watch?v=SgGbbYxxyCI
Critical Thinking website
criticalthinking.org
Miniature Guide:
criticalthinking.org/files/Concepts_Tools.pdf
00:00:00 - Start
00:01:44 - Cloud Appreciation
00:04:02 - Learning To Fly
00:08:00 - Critical Thinking
00:16:49 - What is Critical Thinking
00:20:51 - The Nimitz Incident
00:21:24 - Why do we care about UFOs?
00:24:56 - Crashed Craft vs. Flying Objects
00:31:09 - Funding Shenanigans
00:33:23 - Grusch’s more extraordinary claims
00:39:17 - Italian UFO 1944
00:43:27 - Why Mick cares about Alien Craft
00:47:17 - Other things are more important
00:49:36 - Why does the government have a monopoly on crashed craft?
00:52:43 - 5 Minutes vs. 10 seconds
01:02:07 - How did the Tic-Tac depart?
01:13:14 - Improving the process of reporting UFOs
01:22:03 - Starlink flares reported by airline pilots
01:28:12 - Escaping the Rabbit Hole (Mick’s Book)
01:29:39 - 9/11
Metabunk Thread: metabunk.org/threads/alleged-flight-mh370-ufo-teleportation-videos.13104
Shaking Contrails ( Twitter: @realityseaker)
twitter.com/realityseaker/status/1692008019608166906
Stock Footage found.: reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/15vizx1/the_plane_video_has_vfx_elements_used_for_the
Match for inner details on another frame:
old.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/15vpuif/i_tried_to_match_another_frame_from_the_pyromania
Stock footage for Satellite match
reddit.com/user/happygrammies/comments/15wsxeu/graphic4/?share_id=bhF_koTotqcVU472A1w1x
Starlink horizon flares (not the familiar trains of bright dots, but rather individual satellites that fade in and out, giving an illusion of maneuvering) are unfamiliar to many pilots, so these reports will continue. Agencies that take pilots' reports need to be aware of the technical aspects and nuances of how these things end up being perceived as dogfights on the edge of space.
Because if there actually ARE dogfights on the edge of space, we don't want to miss them.
Some objections to the "glare hiding a distant plane" hypotheses for the Gimbal and Tic-Tac videos say that the angle is too big for large glares to form, and that there should be more variation in size. I demonstrate that is not the case - using a flashlight.
Flashlights (and this video), of course, use visible light, not thermal radiation. But both are part of the electromagnetic spectrum, and both can create glare in their respective cameras. But that's probably a topic for another video.
We discuss the Navy UFO videos and the current UFO situation from a pilot's perspective. We also discuss the recent "whistleblower" UAP hearing, and David Grusch.
Interview recorded August 11 2023
00:00:00 - Start
00:00:38 - Brian's Background
00:03:27 - Sensor anomalies
00:08:22 - Did anyone see UFOs?
00:10:19 - Was there a UFO reporting procedure
00:12:38 - Hearing about the Tic-Tac
00:15:02 - Would the ATFLIR track Smoothly
00:18:47 - What does the Gimbal Shape look Like?
00:21:47 - Range data in ATFLIR
00:26:16 - What’s happening in Gimbal?
00:35:24 - What Brian thinks is going on with Gimbal
00:36:13 - Why wouldn’t the Navy know if it was another fighter?
00:42:56 - Safety of flight
00:48:22 - East Coast vs. West Coast UAP
00:51:08 - Balloons
00:54:27 - Accounting for things moving fast
00:55:47 - Sudden movements of object on FLIR
00:57:49 - The Nimitz FLIR 1 video
01:04:14 - The UAP Task Force, Recommendations
01:10:11 - Green Triangles
01:12:54 - The Navy is Stretched Thin
01:20:11 - Pilot Illusions
01:28:04 - Judging the Distance to the Tic Tac
01:34:01 - Tic-Tac Five minutes vs. Ten Seconds
01:45:45 - Fravor Faking a UFO
01:50:27 - The Whistleblower hearings
01:51:14 - Top Secret Clearances
01:52:25 - Opinions of David Grusch
01:54:18 - Grusch’s Time in Combat
01:57:52 - PTSD
02:01:57 - Ryan Graves
02:03:32 - The Tic-Tac - Radar Correlation?
02:09:30 - Tic-Tac - Why did they look down?
02:11:51 - Mick’s Videos
But it was just Starlink.
Discussion: metabunk.org/threads/solved-mufon-case-124190-mothership-uap-crosses-the-north-pacific-starlink-stack.13071
Recently this was asked of both him and lead SWR scientist Erik Bard, and they suggested I might not fully understand it, or what to do with it.
But I very much would, and this video is an attempt to demonstrate that, to help move the process along.
I know that one bottle collected an NMEA track. I know how to convert that into an interactive 3D recreation with animation. I know how to analyze the data to demonstrate if the bottle did actually bounce off something in mid-air
And I'm not asking for the data for just me. I'm asking for a public release, so I can't manipulate the data without anyone noticing.
So, why not?
Source of the question and Eric's response youtube.com/watch?v=d_8IWUlR38c&t=754s
Poll on if the data should be released:
twitter.com/MickWest/status/1649860293928030213
I'd made a lot of notes in advance, so I thought I'd take advantage of this prep and record my thoughts in a big brain dump! Turns out I would have needed 45 minutes to cover everything.
The full Grusch interview and article/transcript: newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/we-are-not-alone-the-ufo-whistleblower-speaks
My response segment: youtube.com/watch?v=xER7WLaAw-E
00:00 Background, Dave Grusch
01:25 Lack of Evidence
01:47 The Extraordinary claims
02:09 Aliens have murdered humans
02:33 Football Field sized Tardis?
03:12 Italy 1933/1944 Vatican
03:32 Vast Conspiracy
04:00 Agreement with the Aliens
04:27 Problem: This was all Cleared by DOPSR
06:55 Maybe it's not true?
08:00 The cover-up problem
10:19 Do the math on crashes
13:59 AARO don't see UFOS
15:00 Congress should investigate
15:53 "The Program" might be a crash retrieval program
17:53 The Art Bell "Metamaterial"
18:32 A systemic and cultural failing in the IC
19:24 UFO Mythology
20:36 ARRO, Kirkpatrick, Title 50 Clearance
21:58 Dimensions, Quantum Physics, Travel
23:15 Gimbal, pixel saturation, Travis Taylor
29:29 The Omaha Sphere video
31:10 The usual suspects - Kean and Blumenthal
35:00 Ross Coulthart
35:51 Garry Nolan
37:01 Lue Elizondo
37:20 Eric Davis
38:00 Hal Puthoff
39:44 The Woo (Paranormal)
43:40 It would be great if true!
44:58 We may never fully know
We discuss the current saga of the UFO Reverse Engineering "whistleblower" David Grusch, and what I really think about what's going on.
Pete's Channel: youtube.com/@PetesBigMouthTV
Analysis of 2D video presents the challenge that if the size of an object is unknown, then it can be at any distance. It is, however, constrained to a series of lines of sight. In this video, I discuss how lines of sight are extracted from video data, and how this can be used to determine various possible trajectories.
With the Aguadilla UFO video, I demonstrate that there exists a traversal of the lines of sight that is an approximate straight line, and matches exactly the wind that day. This lends significant weight to the hypothesis that the object was something like a pair of wedding lanterns.
00:00 Introduction
01:26 Start of talk
01:37 What is a "Line of Sight"?
02:54 Why use LOS in UAP investigations?
04:54 Specifying Lines of Sight
13:22 Example #1 Hayle Beach
17:03 Example #2 Aguadilla
24:11 Other footage of wedding lanterns by the airport
24:35 Objections to the lantern hypothesis
25:40 Flame obscured by thin paper in IR.
26:03 SCU's analysis and mistakes
27:36 Review of Aguadilla UAP literature
29:12 Summary
31:56 Q&A
Limina is a publication of the Society for UAP studies
societyforuapstudies.org
Other videos from the symposium can be found here:
societyforuapstudies.org/videos
And on their YouTube Channel
youtube.com/@societyforuapstudies/videos
A discovery by John Greenwald leads to video of what looks exactly like the lights from another angle. It seems like this mysterious UFO is just five flares.
Original videos at the Weaponized podcast: weaponizedpodcast.com/news-1/mojave-triangle-uap
Greenwald's discussion: youtube.com/watch?v=D_piRRyCCKM
Greenwald's Tweet on discovering the flare video: twitter.com/blackvaultcom/status/1661052262981185536
The DoD flare video: dvidshub.net/video/791782/wti-assault-support-training-4-b-roll
DoD flare video on YouTube (for date confirmation) youtube.com/watch?v=Hr5Z2VyIryo
Source of the "7 minutes" burn time for flares. dvidshub.net/news/136860/vmgr-352-lights-up-night-sky-battlefield-illumination-mission
Another source: LUU-19B/B IR Flare, 7 minutes burnt time: towndock.net/files/LUU_Parachute_Factsheet.pdf
Metabunk discussion: metabunk.org/threads/claim-the-mojave-triangle-uap.12967
Reddit discussion: reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/13q4kcz/twentynine_palms_ufo_flares_identifiedmick_west
In this case, Mark sent me a video of a bright UFO arcing over a (British) football match as the final whistle blew. I quickly identified what it might be, but Mark disagreed, so I had to dig deeper. Quite a bit deeper!
Eventually, after some friendly back and forth, it was resolved and a few lessons were learned.
Video Source: twitter.com/itvcalendar/status/1622663920098975759
Matching video: youtube.com/watch?v=SqHOrxdKC9E&t=714s
The kick. youtu.be/P94sp-Tapx8?t=587
But it wasn't following the helicopter, it wasn't even close to it. More significantly, it wasn't even a shiny sphere - that was just an artifact of the filter they used - the emboss filter. It was just a bit of random airborne clutter that just happened to drift into the frame for a few seconds.
The scientists on the team should have known better.
Original clip from Season 4, Episode 4: youtu.be/bLr97CzfTLY?t=374
But I quickly recognized it as something I'd only recently discovered - highlights on spider silk that form shapes just like this and are unexpectedly perpendicular to the thread.
Original Video: youtube.com/watch?v=218n5y9WwWc
Described as something anomalous, the "blob" looks like an internal camera reflection of the rocket's bright exhaust. You can see the same reflection descend as the rocket rises; there are other examples with the same camera.
Unfortunately, the full video is not shown, possibly because it would be pretty obvious that it was just a reflection.
You can see most of the "Blob" segment here: youtube.com/watch?v=Vw6oXQcu0Zk
Original footage:
youtube.com/watch?v=IIQBbiukMsA
Original video and discussion from @TahoeDeep
youtube.com/watch?v=O_Lg595f8II
I demonstrate how you can prove this.
Original Mystery Wire image of the slide: mysterywire.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/106/2021/04/NAVY_FILMED_PYRAMID_UAPs.jpg
Mystery Wire article: kxnet.com/news/national-news/mystery-wire-podcast-pyramid-shaped-ufos-swarm-above-navy-destroyer
Quote from that article:
"
The new images were gathered by the Task Force and obtained by investigative filmmaker Jeremy Corbell, who confirmed their authenticity. Mystery Wire has independently confirmed that the visual materials are included in the briefing presentation prepared by the UAP Task Force.
“This (video) was taken on deployment from the USS Russell,” Corbell said. “It shows what they described as vehicles. And they made a great distinction. They made sure in this classified briefing, they made a great distinction that this is not something that we own either a black project, this is not something of a foreign military, that these were behaving in ways that we did not expect. And that they were you know shaped non aerodynamically. Like pyramids, these are flying pyramids!”
"
Original Video, FOIAed, via The Drive: youtube.com/watch?v=Ybakt2q2zQw
FOIA request, with links to files (note there's another similar file, 3004..., showing different stars): foiaonline.gov/foiaonline/action/public/submissionDetails?trackingNumber=DON-NAVY-2021-004596&type=Request
Raw WMV file from the Pentagon: metabunk.org/f/170411ZJUL19.INTERACTION%20WITH%20UNK%20UAS.RSL.001.UNCLASS.wmv
Raw file converted to mp4: metabunk.org/f/170411ZJUL19.INTERACTION%20WITH%20UNK%20UAS.RSL.001.UNCLASS.mp4
Drive article where the videos were released (lots of additional documents and context)
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/navy-releases-videos-from-mysterious-drone-swarms-around-warships-off-california
Metabunk discussion: metabunk.org/threads/pyramid-ufos-in-night-vision-footage-are-bokeh.11695
Minor Correction: At 3:34 I say "seven feet above the deck", which should obviously be seven hundred feet, as on the slide caption.
And no, it's not the most serious UFO case. But it was a fun little puzzle and a great showcase of how crowdsourcing is often the best way of figuring out little mysteries like this.
It's not a UFO, but it is actually quite extraordinary. A once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon called a Light Pillar Map
Metabunk discussion:
metabunk.org/threads/las-vegas-ufo-lights-in-clouds-above-the-north-strip-light-pillars.12817
Shenzhen light pillar map: express.co.uk/news/weird/1317598/China-UFO-mystery-lights-Shenzhen-Weibo-viral-aliens-sightings-latest-news
Flanders Family Christmas Light Show: facebook.com/FlandersChristmasLightShow
People quickly noticed that the ground was moving way too fast. It's actually a time-lapse movie, running about 8 times as fast as normal. So the streak of light is probably the motion blurred lights of another plane, flying in the opposite direction.
But which plane? Flarkey contacted the video owner and they gave him a flight number (Air France 179) and time, about 5:20 UTC on October 8th. This allowed him to track down a good candidate for the other plane: Fed EX 1273. The two planes cross at a shallow angle, and the FexEx plane is just 1000 feet above the Air France plane, which is perfectly legal, but looks odd when the planes are so close.
I downloaded the ADS-B GPS tracks of both planes and dropped them into Sirec, my Situation Recreation software. I adjusted the video to play at 1/8th speed, and adjusted the view to match the lights from the cities seen in the video. Then, bingo, we got a match, it's the Fed Ex plane.
So what are the lights? There's four visible, we can tell how long they flash for based on the motion blur, the length of the streak. This white one was a short flash of a bright white strobe. It's so bright it makes these reflections in the triple paned aircraft window.
The thin red light is the port side wingtip nav light, then the thicker red light is the red anti-collision light on the belly of the plane. Then in the last frame we see the white wingtip nav lights on the backs of the wings
So that was fun, looked amazing at first, and quite confusing, but turned out to be something fairly straightforward.
Sitrec is an interactive tool, and you play with this scenario yourself, I'll put a link in the description. There's a whole bunch more in there too, so have a poke around.
Original Video and Flarkey's Twitter discussion: twitter.com/AlineCvt/status/1590355510406287360
Siterc: metabunk.org/sitrec/?sitch=afr179
(Use the "Sitch" menu to try other scenarios)
This is the same thing as in my last video, Starlink satellites. Not the bright Starlink launch trains, that's a different thing. These are deployed Starlink satellites, and you only see them when you look towards the poles (north or south) and where the satellites are low on the horizon and can just reflect the sun at a shallow angle.
Like last time, I teamed up with Flarkey to synchronize the video with actual Starlink data. We can identify three stars at the start of the video, and use that as an overlay in Stellarium. Since it was just yesterday I used the current Starlink data, and recorded several minutes in real time.
This was then synced with the video, and like last time we see a perfect correlation, where every flaring light matches a satellite. Time, position, speed, and direction. It's 100% Starlink.
So once again we're getting a lot of media attention, and a lot of distracted pilots, for something that's 100% explainable. Hopefully with all this attention, pilots will become familiar with phenomena. But I expect reports to continue, probably for several years. Airlines and aviation authorities really need to educate pilots on what they might be seeing in the sky.
Previous video with Night Vision footage from the US: youtube.com/watch?v=Ea8BCl2yVU0
Metabunk Thread: metabunk.org/threads/multiple-ufos-observed-from-south-brazil-mostly-starlink.12753
About 1AM on August the 14th, 2022, Jimmy Church was on the second floor balcony of his house in Palmdale, California, using a night vision device to look for UFOs. He spotted some to the north, and started filming them.
On November 3rd, he shared the video on Twitter and someone (sorry I can't find who) suggested to me that it might be the same Starlink flares that pilots had been seeing and mistaking for planes flying in racetrack patterns.
A starlink flare happens when sunlight reflects off a flat surface on a starlink satellite. These particular flares are reflecting off the bottom of the satellite, which is parallel to the curve of the earth, and so the reflection mostly misses the ground - which is why, up until now, only pilots at high altitudes had reported them. But Jimmy's night vision device was able to see the much dimmer flares that were visible from the ground.
Over on Metabunk we'd noticed that these flares were mostly observed when looking north, towards the big dipper, with the sun directly below the satellites. Due to the tilt of the earth, there's always some satellites that are in sunlight in the summer, when viewed from Palmdale and similar latitudes.
Jimmy gave me the approximate time of the video, and Flarkey used the in-the-sky.org site to get an exact match of two flaring satellites at the start of the video. Flarkey also found the correct historical Starlink position data using space-track.org, and I loaded that into Stellarium
I identified the stars in the video, the bright one on the left is Doo-bee, part of the big dipper, and I used the stars to overlay a screenshot of the video onto Stellarium, set the time, and pressed play.
Result - All of the flaring lights line up with starlink satellites, in the exact same spot, and at the exact same speed.
Interestingly, neither in-the-sky.org nor Stellarium thought that all these satellites would be visible. This is because they are right on the edge of sunlight, so any small variation in the calculated shape of the Earth or errors in accounting for atmospheric refraction, could put a satellite in or out of shadow. But since we see they match perfectly, we know that the sun is actually hitting them. These are all Starlink satellites.
These starlink flares are only dimly visible from the ground, but are a lot brighter seen from 40,000 feet, from a plane. So we are going to continue to get reports of these moving lights from pilots for the next few years until everyone is aware of the issue. So I suggest that the FAA and the airlines issue advisories to air traffic control and to pilots to minimize distractions and disruption. The frequency will lessen over the winter, due to the tilt of the Earth being away from the sun, but if nothing is done then this exact same flurry of reports will flare up again next summer.
Metabunk Thread: metabunk.org/threads/jimmy-churchs-starlink-ufos-in-palmdale.12751
Full Synced video: youtube.com/watch?v=cT7UeZI-6OY
The pilots describe distant lights that seem to be orbiting in circles or a racetrack, a common type of holding pattern. These sightings are generally in the North, by the big dipper, and generally seem to go from left to right.
Multiple people have determined that the most likely explanation for these is Starlink satellites, simply because the lights don't go in circles, or a racetrack, they go in a perfectly straight line. They are also in the same place in the sky as some matching Starlink satellites, flying in the same direction, and at the same speed.
00:00 Introduction
00:13 A "racetrack" is a type of holding pattern
00:22 Multiple people say it's Starlink
00:42 Pilots disagree
01:04 Normal Starlink "trains" are different
01:30 How we can tell it's not circling
01:57 What's happening is the sun reflecting off the satellite
02:18 The flickering color looks like a star, or something in space
02:28 Why Starlink and not other satellites?
02:46 Using in-the-sky.org to find Starlink satellites
03:28 The sun is directly under the satellites
04:02 Eyewitness accounts that don't match the Starlink explanation
04:27 Reframing as just a flight safety issue and UFO-reporting stigma
Metabunk threads:
This video: metabunk.org/threads/why-racetrack-ufos-are-mostly-starlink-flares.12714
F-18 Pilot (Hulsey) metabunk.org/threads/retired-f-18-pilot-reports-5-uaps-pacing-his-aircraft-over-channel-islands-8-18-22.12616
MUFON 124374: metabunk.org/threads/mufon-report-124374-commercial-airline-pilot-videos-2-objects-circling-starlink-flares-racetrack-illusion.12586
Sighting over the pacific: metabunk.org/threads/claim-another-sighting-of-racetrack-uaps-over-the-pacific-probably-starlink.12704
Mark Handley's Starlink animation: youtube.com/watch?v=bKj4GDNhH0Q
But which plane?
Metabunk's "Skydentify" forum was up to the task, identifying the planes involved with limited and sometimes conflicting information.
I also demonstrate how the Sitrec tool can take the ADS-B tracks from the plane, and show exactly what one plane looks like from the other. Proving 100% that these were the planes in question.
Metabunk Thread: metabunk.org/threads/explained-kansas-tic-tac-shaped-ufo-plane.12630
Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence, Scott Bray, seems to repeat this in testimony to a congressional committee.
Did the Navy, and the UAP task force never actually figure it out?
Video with four stars: youtube.com/watch?v=Ybakt2q2zQw
Explanation of the Triangular shape: youtube.com/watch?v=-r2oaQWmqkk
Video release to The Drive: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/navy-releases-videos-from-mysterious-drone-swarms-around-warships-off-california
More videos: youtube.com/c/MickWest/search?query=bokeh
Discussion thread, with links to original videos.
metabunk.org/threads/pyramid-ufos-in-night-vision-footage-are-bokeh.11695
But is it? There are four observables in the video, four things you can check yourself, that demonstrate that the most likely thing we are looking at is actually a camera artifact. It's probably an infrared glare, hiding the hot object behind it, and rotating only because the camera rotates when tracking the target from left to right.
This does not mean it's not a "UAP", or that it's not unidentified, or that it's not an amazing craft - it just means it's not actually exhibiting any incredible behavior, and so this opens the door to more mundane possibilities, like a distant small jet, just flying away, the heat of the engines (viewed up the exhaust) creating a large glare in the thermal camera.
Edward Current's analysis of possible target flight paths.
youtube.com/watch?v=rGzJ9dx3n4o
Simulator: metabunk.org/gimbal
00:00 Introduction
00:22 The Four Observables
01:18 What's going on
01:59 What I'm not Addressing
02:27 A full 3D recreation
03:01 The ATFLIR camera
03:25 Field of View less than the Moon.
03:55 External Gimbal Axes
05:05 Tracking left to right
05:45 Why the rotation?
06:45 Incorporating Bank in the sim
08:15 Rotating the camera rotates the image
08:47 Derotation
09:07 Real world derotation
09:22 Glare examples
10:21 Glare does not rotate
10:43 Glare derotated "rotates"
11:06 Dero does not rotate it alone
11:27 Differences between sim and video
12:05 ATFLIR's inner mirrors
12:51 Minimizing roll
13:23 Incorporating the glare angle in the sim
13:46 Observable #1 - No rotation while banking
15:23 Observable #2 - Bumps before rotation
16:01 Observable #3 - Rotating patterns
16:24 Observable #4 - Derotation match
17:12 TL/TW? Implications if it's not a glare....
17:58 Background information
19:23 Patent limitations
20:06 Credits
realityseaker's original research on the first 20 seconds.
twitter.com/realityseaker/status/1396908124729069568
Metabunk Discussions:
Investigation the role of pitch and other facts in the glare angle, Markus.
metabunk.org/threads/calculating-and-visualizing-gimbal-angles.12237
Edward Current's work on a full 3D model of the object's movement:
metabunk.org/threads/gimbal-blender-simulation-with-clouds.12209
realityseaker and Edward Current on the initial lack of rotation during banking.
metabunk.org/threads/does-the-beginning-part-of-gimbal-debunk-the-claim-that-the-object-rotates.12068
Using OpenCV to track the cloud motion
metabunk.org/threads/automated-motion-tracking-in-videos-like-gimbal-and-gofast.12299
Credits:
Many Thanks to
Markus Pitch, Graphs, Data, etc
Edward Current 3D Path analysis
Chris Lehto Early Feedback
Mendel Analysis
Robert Hildebrandt ATFLIR Model
jplaza Analysis
jarlrmai Analysis
dimebag2 Analysis
Multiple Anonymous A variety of help
And many more, thank you all for the helpful analysis, valuable feedback and criticism, and useful discussions.
Source code
If you just want to read the code, then it's mostly in a single file:
metabunk.org/attachments/index-html-zip.50217
If you want to edit/run the code, and look at the data, then there's a full zip of the project directory. It needs to be run on a server (which can be a local server) due to the local file loading.
metabunk.org/f/gimbal-source-code-and-data.zip
There's one additional external dependency, the Three.js library, and a variety of utilities from the examples/jsm folder. Here's the version I'm using. This should be in a folder three.js in the root of the server (which you can obviously change in the code).
metabunk.org/attachments/three-js-zip.50218
Images source: youtu.be/OqZh-0oayqc?t=191
Solana power station: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solana_Generating_Station
Location: google.com/maps/place/32%C2%B055'00.0%22N+112%C2%B058'00.0%22W/@32.9004007,-112.8968457,4883a,35y,280.5h,56.74t/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x30b6cabc80e1c05d!8m2!3d32.916667!4d-112.966667?hl=en
Copy of original video: youtube.com/watch?v=c8A1tGBOK9k
"Flares at Night" video: youtube.com/watch?v=c5hunxT7MEU&t=36s
Which I first saw posted on Reddit, by "comandante-marcos": reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/r8q34l/20211124_ufos_filmed_from_the_flight_deck_over/hn7b6e1/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Similar "flares from invisible plane" video: youtube.com/watch?v=8A7MW5q5KgQ
Escola's Instagram Post: instagram.com/reel/CWzEPNEA8oe
It's actually a camera flaw, probably a speck of dirt on the sensor. We can tell this because there's other similar black dots that move in sync with the "triangle". Here's one. Here's another. This is simply the biggest one.
But why does it move?
We see that the speck moves with a regular pattern.
Over the course of a year it moves back and forth along this short arc. It repeats this every year.
This is because the sun's rotational axis, like the earth's, is tilted a bit, about 7 degrees.
The images from Stereo A are corrected to keep the axis vertical - otherwise it would swing left and right.
At the most the sun is tilted 7 degrees to the left, then six months later (since Stereo A has a one year orbit just like the Earth) it's 7 degrees to the right, because we are now viewing the sun from the other direction.
If we measure the amount of rotation of the specks, we see a total of 14 degrees, 7 left, plus 7 right equals 14.
If we remove the rotation of the specks, then we see the actual plus or minus seven degree tilt of the sun as we view it from different points in the one year orbit.
That's all there is to it. Not an alien spaceship, just some specks on a camera orbiting the sun, which is still pretty darn cool!
Helioviewer: helioviewer.org
NASA Page on STEREO-A Sensor defects. stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/artifacts/artifacts_camera.shtml
Video of the example dust speck mentioned by NASA: metabunk.org/f/2020_01_01_16_09_03_2020_12_07_14_41_00_EUVI-A_171-hq.mp4
A detailed look at the EUVI camera. secchi.lmsal.com/EUVI/DOCUMENTS/5171_15.pdf
Here I look at the various analyses and how they eventually converged on the most likely explanation - that the UFO was something very small, like a bug or a seed, just meandering along in the in air, with most of the apparent speed coming from the drone itself.
Raw Footage: tinyurl.com/637kuv20
Spreadsheet: metabunk.org/attachments/beaver-ufo-size-distance-speed-xlsx.48017
Point Consciousness Analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=sszECCzhDTs
Jay Lamm's Analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=o4bqTlwLwwA
Propellerhead (Rob) Initial Analysis: youtube.com/watch?v=cFN7KofHpcY
Propellerhead (Rob) Initial Analysis Math: youtube.com/watch?v=scdK5xcbV-k
Rob's "Another Way to See it": youtube.com/watch?v=uahYDEPm5s0
Rob's visit to Beaver: youtube.com/watch?v=E7Ya1CBH7Nk
Diffraction rings explained: telescope-optics.net/diffraction_pattern_and_aberrations.htm
Good example of Venus out of focus: youtube.com/watch?v=ydvsLzLYZM0
Yesterday Zac Cichy and I both watched the "Our Future in Space" talk at the Ignatius Forum. After a brief exchange on Twitter, we decided to have a recorded chat so we could explore out differences with a bit more nuance than tweeting allowed.
Audio file (mp3) version of this video. metabunk.org/f/Mick%20West%20Zac%20Cichy%20-%20UAPs%20and%20DNI.mp3
Zac is host of the Project Human podcast, currently on Hiatus, but lots of great guests and thoughtful conversation in previous episodes
https://www.projecthuman.fm/
Gillibrand Amendment: congress.gov/congressional-record/2021/11/04/senate-section/article/S7808-1
OUR FUTURE IN SPACE: cathedral.org/event/our-future-in-space
youtube.com/watch?v=UWyPk_f8aAA
Avril Haines' Comment on UAPs, 32 minutes into the above.
Yeah, I mean, I think the bottom line is that we don't understand everything that we're seeing. And that's probably not surprising to anybody in many respects. But it is, it was a report that really, Congress asked us to produce a report that assessed what we saw as the threat, essentially, from unidentified aerial phenomenon. And what our sort of best understanding was of the different reports that we had identified and it stretched over from, I think, 2004, through to 2021, the different reports that you identify, that you indicated 144 of them, and we had different categories, as you said, so one of them was airborne clutter and other was natural, you know, phenomenon. Another was foreign adversaries. A fourth one was related to sort of US government or industry developmental programs. And then the fifth one was "other". And that basically indicated that we were pretty sure we weren't going to be able to characterize every single one of these reports in the various categories that we've identified, because, frankly, we were not able to understand everything about it. And a large portion of that is based on the fact that we don't have a consistent way of reporting this information, we need to integrate, frankly, a lot of data that we get, we need to get better at collecting information that's useful to us from different sensors that are available to us. And we have to deepen our analysis in these areas. And that's something that, you know, frankly, probably also doesn't surprise you in the sense that that's how we typically approach our intelligence work. And the main issues that Congress and others have been concerned about are basically safety of flight concerns and counterintelligence issues. But of course, there's always the question of, is there something else that we simply do not understand that might come extra terrestrial? Extra terrestrially?
The version of Stellarium I used: stellarium.org
There's also a web version, which does the same thing, but with a different user interface. stellarium-web.org
Astrometery: http://nova.astrometry.net
Here's the Feb 3 2013 version youtube.com/watch?v=rki8SkbxDHA
HOWEVER there's also a Feb 2, 2013 version from a clickbait channel:
youtube.com/watch?v=QTmpWKJjazk
Found by @ufoofinterest
youtube.com/watch?v=FF6PYn4xHks
Reddit Thread: reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/qlluxf/ufo_flyby_passenger_reaction
Of course there really isn't any great mystery here. You can google "glass moves by itself" and you'll find scores of examples and explanations. It's a glass table, so very smooth. Condensation drips down the glass forming a thin layer of water on the table, reducing friction - and a bubble of air can be trapped, which warms and expands, loosening the seal. Then any slight vibration and a very slight slope to the table does the rest.
But giving the explanation is one thing, can we duplicate it? I give it a go in my bathroom, with mixed success.