Reinvent Money
Debasement Trade - Gold and BTC Mainstream - Lyn Alden
updated
Alfonso discusses the current macro trends such as the growing debt bubble as well as declining productivity and demographics. He explains his macro compass model and how you should invest in current times with hawkish central banks. He also analyses the process of 'money printing', the global credit impulse, the housing market, unemployment and the strength of the dollar.
After his presentation Alfonso answers a few questions from Paul Buitink and the audience about the euro, cbdc and the eurodollar system.
The whole event was organized by the biggest Dutch bullion provider Holland Gold. The event will be organized again on the 20th of January 2023. Get your tickets here:
https://www.hollandgold.nl/evenement2023/
You can follow Alf here:
twitter.com/MacroAlf
themacrocompass.substack.com
You can follow Paul here:
twitter.com/paulbuitink
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:43 Demographics
5:50 Productivity
7:50 Debt dynamics
10:56 Money printing
19:38 Negative global credit impulse
25:27 Housing market and unemployment
30:54 Core Services Inflation
34:04 The macro compass and how to invest in this climate
40:00 Why the dollar is getting stronger
44:43 Why the euro is not sustainable
48:38 Not buy crypto now Alf says
48:58 CBDC
50:13 Eurodollar (offshore dollar) system
53:03 Outro
Michael also gives his views on Austrian economics and post-Keynesianism
He also gives his opinion on the future of the euro, the strength of the dollar, emerging market crises, central bank digital currencies, potential new currency blocs and the global dollar shortage.
This is the article Michael mentioned about why Bretton Woods III won't work in his view:
zerohedge.com/markets/nice-narrative-no-why-one-strategist-thinks-zoltan-pozsars-bretton-woods-3-never-going
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economics.rabobank.com/authors/michael-every
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Hugh explains how he was right shorting Lehman, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 but how timing is always difficult. This time around he expects a crisis as bad or even worse as then. He blames central banks and the ECB especially for making things worse. Destroying demand while demand is already reduced will only worsen the depression.
Since Draghi's 'whatever it takes' moment in 2012, Italian bonds (BTP) trade with little premium vs German bunds. This may stop as eurodollar market banks, who create most of modern money, may stop seeing Italian collateral as good as German or US collateral. This could lead to a meltdown of the euro. Hugh draws a parallel with sub prime mortgages and prime mortgages prior to the GFC.
In any case there is a collateral restraint in the eurodollar market which is why the US dollar is rising. He doesn't expect the dollar to lose reserve status soon. Headlines about bilateral deals between BRICS countries in their own currencies are noise he says. Central bankers just accentuate trends, nothing more. He doesn't listen to their propaganda. Only 5 people know money worldwide says Hugh.
Hugh closes the conversation with saying that panicking is a good thing. Normal people are being screwed and only with panic the status quo can change.
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twitter.com/hendry_hugh
acidcap.com
hughhendry.substack.com
Acid Capitalist on Spotify and Apple Podcast
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0:00 Joseph's time at the Fed
3:34 Understanding the repo market
6:25 Rehypothecation
8:25 Primary dealers
11:59 The need for bank reserves
14:34 Foreign repo pool
17:28 Fragility of our system
23:34 Eurodollar market
32:52 Foreign central banks should better keep cash
34:55 Effect of strong dollar on emerging markets
42:58 ECB policy and eurozone woes
46:31 Wang's view on inflation and rates
53:54 Gold
55:58 Demographics
In this episode Joseph Wang shares his experiences as a trader at the New York Fed between 2016 and 2021. He experienced the repo crises of September 2019 and March 2020 first hand. Joseph also wrote the outstanding book 'Central Banking 101'.
Paul and Joseph discuss the workings of the repo market and how it's the most important market you've never heard of with a daily size of 1 trillion US dollars. Joseph also explains what primary dealers do and what the Foreign Repo facility is.
The financial system is flush with liquidity (bank reserves) due to the central banks continuously recapitalizing the system after the Great Financial Crisis. Joseph says we can't do without reserves as they're an important building block of the system.
Joseph explains how the system has become more fragile though and how the many bail-outs, including the March 2020 one benefit the rich primarily. The ultimate consequence is inflation which we're experiencing right now.
They also discuss the eurodollar (offshore dollar) system and how Russia can still make use of it, despite sanctions.
He expects the dollar to remain dominant despite war and proliferation of other initiatives such as CIPS. Joseph suggests foreign central banks should keep cash instead of reserves in order to avoid freezing of their accounts. Emerging markets suffer from the expensive dollar Joseph explains. Higher Fed rates could break those markets and tame global inflation.
In Europe Lagarde doesn’t understand what she’s doing, according to Joseph. Also, inflation and rates will be higher longer than most people expect. Markets don’t predict well at all.
Joseph ends the interview saying he likes gold not as an inflation hedge but more as a protection against governments. He also advises to keep an eye on demographic shifts across the world, which are currently inflationary.
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twitter.com/FedGuy12
fedguy.com
Buy his book here:
amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747
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Two years ago Paul talked to Richard about how the ECB was trying to become the only bank in town in Europe. In this latest episode Richard tells in more detail how the ECB, through regulation and monetary policy, has destroyed small community banks. Since the inception of the ECB 5000 banks have disappeared. Its policies squeeze the margins of small banks while at the same time they lead to asset bubbles, inflation and crises, which are then used to gain more powers, says Richard.
The ECB is now looking into wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC), like they do in China, instead of retail CBDC. This gives Richard some hope since it's potentially less destructive. The European Union is becoming like the Soviet Union says Richard and China is acting smarter. Creating credit and hence money is such a powerful tool that it needs to be in the hands of as many people and small banks as possible, China gets that. Once you have more local banks, they can be the core of a new monetary paradigm. Richard illustrates this with the experiment of Worgl in Tirol in the 30ies. So although Richard is worried about the future of the euro, it still makes sense to focus on building as many community banks as possible, to have the network ready to possibly introduce new currencies. For this reason he started the Valhalla Network. Richard furthermore thinks the gold price is suppressed and therefore cheap.
Links:
Previous video:
youtube.com/watch?v=OdYmdKUiQNw
Richard and Paul on Twitter:
twitter.com/ProfessorWerner
twitter.com/scientificecon
twitter.com/paulbuitink
Richard's work:
quantumpublishers.com/quantum_publishers_book_shop.html
valhallanetwork.io
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twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
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twitter.com/paulbuitink
Further reading:
washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-war-and-sanctions-make-the-ruble-harder-to-trade/2022/04/11/8d267832-b9a9-11ec-a92d-c763de818c21_story.html
bruegel.org/2022/04/a-sanctions-counter-measure-gas-payments-to-russia-in-rubles
theclearinghouse.org/payment-systems/chips
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Interbank_Payment_System
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/psystem/fin_msg_transfer_system/
They discuss a range of topics from bond yields and inflation, to the (Dutch) real estate market and the way society is addicted to credit sugar rushes leading to ever bigger debt crises. Alfonso reflects on the impossibility of central bank policy and the environment of the rising debt mountain that can only be serviced with lower real yields. He also lays out the different end game scenario's including gold and bitcoin.
If there is one book he advises you to read about the financial system it's The New Economics, A Manifesto, by Steve Keen.
This episode was sponsored by Holland Gold, the number one gold and silver dealer in The Netherlands and Belgium. More info on https://www.hollandgold.nl.
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twitter.com/MacroAlf
themacrocompass.substack.com
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twitter.com/TaviCosta
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twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund
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They discuss the workings of SWIFT and Russia's removal. It encourages Russia to develop other messaging systems with its Eastern allies, such as CIPS.
Removing Russia from VISA/Mastercard is far more cumbersome for the ordinary Russians. Izabella doesn't think sanctions are very effective and could even lead to people rallying behind their leader.
Izabella will think the eurodollar is going to be affected as a result of the bifurcation we currently see in the global system. China and Russia will try to settle more in their own currencies. The euro is a contender too because it's liquid and cheap, since rates won't rise soon.
The US dollar is not so reliable anymore, which should be a keep aspect of a reserve currency.
Izabella and Paul discuss the role of outside money like crypto and gold. On a global stage she sees more value in gold. They also talk about energy backed stable coins.
Other topics addressed are the role of the IMF and the upcoming food shortages.
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the-blindspot.com
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Michael believes we're going to replay the 2018 scenario in which interest rates will be hiked and soon lowered again. Interest rates are like performing surgery with a machete. He expects we're going to be stuck with low rates for a long time.
We should start to take matters in own hands and protest against bad government policies. In the 19th century for example Europeans would migrate to the US and vote with their feet.
If we would invest better as a society focused on growth and the next generation, interest rates would rise themselves. Good policies in combination with markets should make this possible. Central banks have less impact on interest rates as people believe.
Unfortunately more and more people optimize their lives to leave nothing behind instead of taking care of their local communities and future generations.
The gentlemen discuss a new Bretton Woods and whether the US need to give up the world reserve currency. Also the situation in The Ukraine is discussed and how Europe still heavily depends on the US.
Michael furthermore thinks Bitcoin is just a speculative asset. He also comments on China whose demographics are a disaster, things are falling apart there.
He ends with an advice for the younger generation to take risks, for example by starting your own company.
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He comments on the recent Fed decisions and why it's too little too late. Alasdair expects high and persistent inflation even though the yield curve is flat. Interest rates will go up but due to high public and private debt levels across the world, and especially in Japan and Europe, society will not be able to handle those higher rates. This will trigger a new financial crisis emanating most likely first in Europe.
Alasdair doesn't see value in Bitcoin. Furthermore he thinks central bank digital currencies won't see the daylight, due to the risks they pose for financial stability and because of a strong bank lobby.
Find Alasdair's research here:
goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights
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James and Paul discuss Fed policy, the difference between money and currency and why gold is natural money. James also highlights the difference with crypto-currency, which he values and calls escape currency. He advocates for free and unfettered markets in money. Furthermore he thinks sound money would be better for the environment.
Other concepts discussed are the elasticity of money, distortion of markets by central banks and why we should not applaud central banks buying gold. Gold should be distributed to the people and central banks should be closed down says James.
James advises to invest in tangible assets and calls currency debasement a crime against humanity.
Sorry for the unstable internet connection this time.
Please find the book here:
amazon.com/Money-Liberty-Pursuit-Happiness-Natural/dp/1739851110
And follow James and Paul on Twitter here:
twitter.com/FGMR
twitter.com/paulbuitink
Paul and Jeff also talk about the impact central banks have or have not on bond prices. Jeff thinks they have little impact and points to research. This applies to both the Fed and the ECB.
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twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPalhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider
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MMT provides policy tools for governments to reach their objectives. For most governments that would be full employment and low inflation. Central banks have no real tools to do that. They have the interest rate backwards. According to Warren, higher rates will lead to higher inflation.
The central bank and treasury might as well merge but there are some organisational issues with that. But it would indeed make the system simpler.
In Warren’s base case scenario we wouldn’t need government bonds anymore, but for practical purposes he would for now stick to 3 months bills only. Also interest rates should be fixed at 0 forever.
The Fed is in private hands, but that doesn’t really matter says Warren. But transferring it to the government would be easy.
Warren says higher interest rates will only lead to higher inflation in hard money systems, not in floating rate regimes. The gentlemen discuss and disagree on how asset price inflation comes about.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are there primarily to tax people more Warren thinks, for example to get more VAT in the eurozone. He doesn’t expect banks to suffer funding problems should CBDC be introduced.
Warren would completely overhaul the banking industry so it would be much more like narrow banking, and banks would behave more like public institutions.
The gentlemen discuss the government as employer of last resort, which is an important part of MMT. Warren explains how that derives from the money story and how government is responsible for creating and hencing solving unemployment.
They talk about whether a soft currency contributes to more wars. And how the euro was created to prevent wars.
How ‘modern’ is MMT given the proliferation of non-State cryptocurrencies? The gentlemen discuss the different options available for a government to fund itself. Warren states that the government can best be provisioned issuing its own currency.
You can find Warren and Paul on Twitter:
twitter.com/wbmosler
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Warren's website:
http://moslereconomics.com
They talk about gold’s IPO 50 years ago when Nixon closed the gold window and about its ramifications. Ronnie believes it’s very important to understand the history of money in order to make the right investment decisions. He talks about how central bankers are expanding their mandates, without the voters having a say. Most investors don’t seem to care about these topics.
Paul asks whether you could argue that currencies are still partially backed by gold because of the central banks' gold positions? Ronnie thinks in the transition phase from global monetary system to another gold will play an important role.
Due to hawkish statements from the Fed Ronnie is a bit less certain a new gold price high will be reached over the next few months. Quite a lot of damage has been done to the chart. In the long run Fed policy will remain loose though. Gold is still acting like a solid defender in one’s portfolio. It’s the Edwin van der Sar of your portfolio.
Ronnie and Paul discuss and share their passion for both and crypto and don’t like the bitter rivalry between the communities. Ronnie is agnostic and sees neither gold nor bitcoin as a religion. He offers funds through Incrementum that combines both mining stocks, gold, silver and bitcoin. Ronnie touches upon Bitcoin’s price drop, ESG, regulation and the positive/creative mindset of many crypto developers. He compares gold to a Volvo and crypto to a Ducati.
The gentlemen discuss the ECB’s strategic review and how it will be different. Ronnie expects the ECB to be more flexible with its inflation target. Ronnie fears the mandate will be changed even more and not even the constitutional court in Karlsruhe can do anything about it. Big government is back.
They end the conversation with a comparison between the dollar and euro and the ongoing debasement against hard assets.
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Download the In Gold We Trust Report: https://ingoldwetrust.report
youtube.com/watch?v=-UT3OZySRcA
Now Charles is back to talk about Cardano.
Charles still holds Bitcoin but now puts all his time in Cardano. They discuss 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd generation blockchains and why Cardano is a 3rd generation blockchain. These types of blockchains are more scalable, interoperable and sustainable.
Charles explains Cardano's roadmap and how smart contracts will soon be possible with the new programming language Plutus which is based on Haskell. He describes in technical detail how the complete architecture will work and how it for example differs from Ethereum.
They discuss when Cardano will go mainstream and when grandma can use it.
Charles also talks about the downside and upside of regulation and the effects on Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Cardano allows for the use of decentralized identifiers (dids) to comply with KYC requirements.
Charles has high hopes for the use of crypto and DeFi in Africa.
Follow Lyn on Twitter at lynaldencontact
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Sorry, no video this time, it got corrupted when my computer crashed.
Greetings, Paul
They first talk about the turbulence onthe repo market, how there was a shortage of t-bills.
Then they talk about yield curve control (YCC), what it is and how it was last used in the US in the forties. At the moment Japan and Australia are doing it. When you choose YCC you try to peg the yield of your bonds at a certain level. You will lose control over your balance sheet and the value of your currency. If you’re the only central bank doing it you will weaken your currency. Central banks don’t coordinate too well.
Lyn doesn’t expect the Fed yet to announce YCC in March but first try things like operation Twist. YCC is a last resort measure for a central bank.
YCC is done to keep government funding costs low. You can also achieve that by changing the maturity structure of the treasuries. In Europe there is yield spread control to suppress yields of the weaker Southern nations.
Yields of those countries don’t make sense from a private sector point of view. The ECB also buys lots of bonds in other to keep the value of the currency relatively low. Without fiscal policy it's difficult to invoke inflation though.
They talk about the sustainability of the US debt being over 100% of GDP whereas Reinhard/Rogoff say above 90% and you’re in trouble.
Financial repression is going to happen.
Over the past years there was mostly domestic buying of US treasuries. The reserve status of the US dollar is waning. Multi-currency energy contracts, but it’s a long process.
In the forties you had more patriotism and slower data, so people accepted financial repression more. Financial repression is harder these days.
Hyperinflation is not Lyn’s base case for the next 5 years. She sees that as a tail risk.
Central banks are counting on the pandemic to end soon, reduce the stimulus bills and have 5-10% inflation over the next couple of years inflating away the debt. In that base case gold is expected to do well over the next 5 years depending on real rates. Bitcoin is a different asset class as it goes through its adoption phase. It will be the fastest horse.
Generational differences between gold and bitcoin exist. Lyn likes diversification though, having a basket. She doesn’t buy the narrative that gold is being demonetized.
Great reset could be a tail risk event. Gold revaluation could be a nuclear option to do for the Treasury and Fed.
She emphasizes diversification above anything! And likes exercising as a hobby :)
Volg Nilufer op Twitter:
twitter.com/ngundogan77
Volg Paul op Twitter:
twitter.com/paulbuitink
Eerder praatte Paul al met Renske Leijten van de SP over de euro:
youtube.com/watch?v=g7Eu2HYcw54
Follow Jim on Twitter at @JamesGRickards
Follow Paul on Twitter at @paulbuitink.
They talk about unemployment and the Labor Force Participation Rate which is declining. Real unemployment is more around 12-15%
Decline of New York is discussed and how lockdowns are not effective but do destroy economies.
Money velocity can be increased by raising inflation expectations by devaluing dollar against gold.
Jim's price target for gold is $14,000 in 2025. Jim still thinks crypto is nonsense and it’s just gambling. He also criticizes Tether and calls it the biggest Ponzi in the whole world. Jim explains how Bitcoin is different and worse than gold and the dollar system in his view. Elon Musk he calls the P.T. Barnum of this age.
Jim expects a big new SDR issue later this year between 500 and 2000 billion.
Electronic payments are becoming popular and that's why the ECB believes it makes sense to update cash to the digital era. One reason would be to protect market abuse of strong private players, to have a fall back solution from the central bank, like bank notes today. This argument is about monetary sovereignty.
He expects the central banks worldwide to coordinate whenever they launch central bank digital currencies, for example to control capital flows. In principle Ulrich would be okay if non-euro residents would be able to hold digital euro's. It should not be an attractive investment though, so it would probably have negative interest rates.
Paul and Ulrich discuss whether you need to register for the digital euro or whether it can also be an anonymous bearer instrument like cash. Users like tourists, homeless people and refugees are mentioned. There is full commitment though to maintain cash.
Ulrich also explains what the balance sheet consequences for banks and commercial banks would be. People should not fear financial repression.
ECB is not driven by the desire to have more power says Ulrich, nor is helicopter money planned by the ECB.
They also discuss crypto currencies, stable coins and what the timeline for the digital euro looks like.
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twitter.com/dandolfa
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Paul Buitink praat met Renske Leijten, bij de SP verantwoordelijk voor de portefeuille financiën, Europa en de EU, over het concept verkiezingsprogramma van de SP voor 2021. In dit programma heeft de SP het volgende opgenomen:
"De euro is onhoudbaar, omdat de economieën van de eurolanden onvergelijkbaar zijn. Vasthouden aan de huidige euro gaat ten koste van onze economie, maar ook die van de landen in het oosten en zuiden van Europa, die de munt niet kunnen aanpassen aan hun economische ontwikkeling. De landen met meer vergelijkbare economieën moeten voorbereidingen treffen voor de ontwikkeling van een nieuwe munt."
Paul praat met Renske over waarom de euro onhoudbaar is en met welke vergelijkbare economieën dan een nieuwe munt moet worden gestart. Ook gaat Renske in op de vraag of het aankondigen van een nieuwe munt niet tot kapitaalsvlucht leidt en hoe om te gaan met de schuldenberg. Verschillende alternatieven voor een nieuwe munt worden besproken en ook hoe het volk hier bij betrokken moet worden. Tijdens het partijcongres op 12 december wordt er over het definitieve programma besloten.
Dominic Frisby tells his personal story how the corona measures affect him and his family. It shouldn’t be possible for governments to have this much power. Governments won’t listen to demonstrations says Dominic, mentioning the march against Iraq as an example. Back in medieval times people were much better able to rise up against the ones in power.
The UK has a leadership without philosophy, there are no first principles. It's a clownocracy They lurch from crisis to crisis. In the process the government gets bigger and bigger. In the UK, the government is only trying to defend against the media. Chances are slim that the Coronavirus Act is going to be revoked.
Regarding Brexit, things are so bad at the moment because of Covid that things can't get any worse with Brexit. Work is hard at the moment for Dominic but he still has some gold and bitcoin.
Dominic shares his personal bitcoin experiences and talks about his book Bitcoin, The Future of Money.
Dominic believes there is a chance Bitcoin can become the monetary backing of the cash system of the internet, the gold standard of crypto currency. Bitcoin can scale much better in terms of adoption than national currencies. We’re in a world of multi-currency and that will only be more.
Dominic and Paul on Twitter
twitter.com/DominicFrisby
twitter.com/paulbuitink
The Shadowpunk Revolution
audible.co.uk/pd/The-Shadowpunk-Revolution-Audiobook/B08DJBQ75P?qid=1601385504&sr=1-1&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_1&pf_rd_p=c6e316b8-14da-418d-8f91-b3cad83c5183&pf_rd_r=GBR4FJ347KK83V0HQG9K
17 Million
youtube.com/watch?v=f2zJ8vaB5jo
lynalden.com
twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Paul and Lyn discuss the world reserve currency status of the dollar. How it works in practice, how it came about and how sustainable it is. Slowly but surely the dollar is losing ground, for example if you look at the percentage of dollar as part of official foreign reserves. For the US it’s been both a blessing and a curse. Lyn explains Triffin’s dilemma. US’ strong military further underpins the dollar.
The dominance of the US does not only hurt the US but also international markets, especially emerging markets. They discuss how Russia and China try to decouple from the US dollar, Russia more so than China.
Near term Lyn thinks there are disinflationary pressures because of political gridlock in the US. In the longer term more stimulus will come in order to avoid social unrest and when there are market crashes. The Fed will end up owning a lot more US debt.
Lyn expects the dollar to gradually lose in importance and in the future there will be several reserve currencies at the same time.
They discuss a lot more including Trump, gold and crypto.
The amounts in the end, spread over many years, are only a small percentage of EU GDP. It’s historic though, even Hamiltonean, due to the common debt issuance.
European Commission bonds will partially end up at the ECB balance sheet most likely as part of their asset purchase programmes. In effect they will be eurobonds, but then issued by the EU instead of eurozone. Question is whether debt issued by the European Commission should be added to the member states pro rata. Furthermore all members are severally and jointly liable in case a member leaves. The deal may even be illegal says Pieter.
Paul and Pieter discuss other things such as how countries such as The Netherlands but also individuals should protect themselves, for example by buying gold and by bootstrapping a new currency. They also discuss whether it was a good for Belgium and end the discussion that for both Belgium and The Netherlands it’s good to keep a trade union.
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George shares his background and how he retired as an entrepreneur to become an investor. He studied Milton Friedman and then the Austrian School guys in the investment space. First he started investing in real estate, primarily in Colombia. Then in 2019 he started a TV show in Colombia about his real estate adventures and from there started his youtube channel about macro and investing.
George spreads his own portfolio as follows: 10% insurance (gold), 80% investment (real estate, dividend stocks, bonds) and 10% speculative (uranium, Bitcoin, silver, mining shares).
He explains how he came up with the concept of Venezuelafication of the US and how it’s taking place. People wrongly think inflation is dead. Is a reserve world currency like the US dollar needed George wonders. And how can US defend it. Rates can’t go up. If the dollar goes up too much it would also be detrimental because other countries could stop usingit.
If we have a loss of confidence in fiat currency, George doesn’t think people will trust a new fiat currency ever again. There is an argument for both gold and bitcoin after a collapse. Problem with gold is that politicians can tamper with it again.
George also adresses inflation, taxes, the euro, politicized US and life after the world reserve currency.
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twitter.com/GeorgeGammon
youtube.com/georgegammon
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Richard states that central planners create and use crises to further their interests and powers. He particularly believes how in that light the European Central Bank, through negative interest and excessive regulation, has been destroying small banks and is bent on ending the big ones too, ultimately becoming the only bank in the eurozone. The tool to be used in that process will be central bank digital currencies.
Links:
twitter.com/scientificecon
twitter.com/paulbuitink
professorwerner.org
Documentary Princes of the Yen
youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY
Frances explains what quantitative easing (QE) is and what's good and bad about it. It can help to avoid debt deflation but at the same time benefits the rich, because the trickle down effect is limited. Central banks seem to be able to do only thing: buy more things.
Frances explains the different types of QE such as helicopter money to citizens or monetizing government's debt. The most difficult problem is actually getting the money to the people.
Which People's QE you choose depends on your purpose and timing.
Frances and Paul also touch upon ethics, debt to gdp ratios and the eurozone. Frances understands why ECB keeps the thing afloat but she is not a big fan of the euro.
They end the conversation with central bank digital currencies. Frances is in favour because now we entirely depend on commercial banks for payments.
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gnseconomics.com/home
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Paul Buitink talks to Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics and Adj. Professor of Economics at University of Helsinki, Finland about why and how to exit the eurozone. See for all the steps required this tweet from Tuomas:
twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1268844411162591232?s=19
twitter.com/dlacalle_IA
dlacalle.com/en
youtube.com/channel/UCoA66gIqiExUIjwyw1cB9Dw
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Paul Buitink talks to Spanish author and economist Paul Buitink about ECB policies and programmes such as the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Daniel is against these programmes since they only lead to further asset price increases.
A lively debate follows between Daniel and Paul about effects of ECB policies and whether people need to be compensated.
The conversation ends with the euro and what its prospects are. Daniel thinks the euro is working and is there to stay provided it will not be mismanaged.
twitter.com/GeorgeSelgin
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George Selgin is Director of Cato's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and author of many books about money such Money: Free and Unfree, and Floored.
Private coins produced during UK's industrial revolution are amongst the best money that George has studied.
Most problems we have now are consequences of bad regulation in the past. Most regulation is bad. We're a long way from having a financial system that can take care of itself. We do need basic laws but not the bad interventions. George illustrates this by the law against branche banking in the past in the US.
George and Paul also discuss Glass Steagall and the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank. The first 20 years of the Fed showed it hardly prevented crises.
Ending the Fed is not so easy right now though. 100 years ago it would have been easier because of the gold standard. You can't get rid of the Fed now without getting rid of the dollar.
If George would be the Fed's Chairman he would turn it into a night watchman Fed only to guard stability of aggregate spending. And he would allow alternatives to the dollar.
Even though it's flawed the dollar is still regarded as one of the best currencies by a lot of people. But we are held hostage by the dollar.
For the immediate future George doesn't see high inflation. Demand for dollars is as extreme as supply. Later on, in 2 years, inflation can be a problem when the Fed needs to restrain itself despite fiscal pressure from the government. We may need a new Paul Volcker.
The gentlemen also discuss the yuan, bitcoin and central bank digital currencies to a great extent. Government will tolerate private currencies until they become dominant says George.
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Paul and Tuur, who started this channel together 7 years ago, catch up and talk about how Bitcoin has developed over time and where it's heading. They focus on adoption and how Bitcoin rises in a slow but steady way. Bitcoin doesn't always seem to behave like you expect during an economic crisis like the one we're in. Tuur thinks the biggest threat to Bitcoin is when its culture loses strength. The guys also touch upon the topic of deflation vs inflation.
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Alasdair Macleod is in favour of limited government but in crises like these it's choosing between economic theory and political reality. Countries used to Keynesian economics will not easily accept Austrian school economics as a driving force. Alasdair believes something like a lockdown could have been done too with government imposing it.
Alasdair fears hyperinflation and thinks this time is different and draws historical parallels, for example with John Law. He describes how the financial system was broken before corona. Difference with the Great Financial Crisis that it's now also a supply chain and industrial problem.
Alasdair explains the difficulties the US is in now with tax receipts going down and expenses skyrocketing. Will domestic of foreign creditors pull the plug of the dollar?
Poor suffer most from inflation says Alasdair and he explains the Cantillon effect. Food prices are already going up.
In Germany it took 6 months before the money was completely worthless.
Paul looks forward to a world where there will be competing currencies. Alasdair bets on gold. Paul doesn't rule out Bitcoin.
The gentlemen end the conversation to talk about how monetary policies have worsened inequality.
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Paul Buitink talks to independent economist Steve Keen. A modern debt jubilee is needed says Steve due to unprecedented levels of private debt. It entails creating fiat money to get rid of the debt burden. Steve explains the difference between ancient and modern debt jubilees .
Both households, banks and corporates will benefit from a debt jubilee. Also small companies can get the helicopter money. And corporate debt can be swapped into shares. Steve is in favour of central bank digital currencies but doesn't want to abolish cash.
They explain what the effects on commercial and central bank balance sheets would be. Steve brought also a few charts showing M2 velocity and private debt growth vs GDP.
The choice basically will be between a modern debt jubilee or a system meltdown.
Steve and Paul discuss about the aftermath and how the new financial system would look like and whether it would be good to have competing financial models and currencies.
Steve would like a greener and more sustainable society. We need more physical austerity. He also thinks the crisis will strengthen fiat money and the push for universal basic income.
The gentlemen also discuss bitcoin and the problems within in the eurozone.
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Paul Buitink talks to James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, about the current economic crisis. James thinks it will inevitably lead to a collapse of confidence in fiat money and hence hyperinflation. James also believes companies should just be able to go bankrupt.
He criticizes fiat currencies and calls upon people to return to sound money since corrupt money has corrupted the system. The existing monetary order is not going to survive. He believes in buying gold and silver to protect your purchasing power. Gold needs to be in the hands of the people, not the central banks he says. He also likes Bitcoin better than fiat.
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Articles Jan wrote:
voimagold.com/insight/jan-nieuwenhuijs-central-banks-need-a-higher-gold-price
voimagold.com/insight/what-is-an-sdr-and-will-it-be-the-next-world-reserve-currency
De heren spreken over hoe verder te gaan met de euro en of een referendum niet op zijn plaats is nu.
Ook bespreken ze de economische schade voor Nederland en hoe lang de lockdown nog door kan gaan.
https://www.ftm.nl/artikelen/bankrun-maar-niemand-ziet-het
Hierin beschrijft hij hoe er een run is ontstaan op (dollar) liquiditeit en er sprake is van een uitverkoop op de financiële markt.
Ook praten de mannen over de problemen in de eurozone als gevolg van de coronacrisis en of dit keer de crisis wel tot hervormingen van het financiële systeem leiden.
Paul Buitink (@paulbuitink) and Martijn Jeroen van der Linden, Phd researcher at Delft University of Technology (@MartijnJvdL) talk with Professor Steve Keen of Kingston University in London.
Steve explains what's wrong with mainstream economic model (lack proper money, equilibrium-based and rational agents) and why we therefore fail to see a crisis from coming.
He explains which zombie countries are to run into problems again, like UK, China, The Netherlands.
We talk about improving economic models using Minsky's insights. Focus needs to be on private debt levels.
Solutions for a crisis can be found in a Modern Debt Jubilee and better credit control.
Steve is no big fan over complete free markets (Hayek) or Positive Money solutions like sovereign money.
Find more about Matthew at http://matslats.net.
And his MOOC here: http://iflas.blogspot.nl/2014/12/money-and-society-mooc.html
Bob talks about the Austrian School of economics, its main tenets and its interpretation of the financial crisis. We also compare it with mainstream economics. Bob feels the standard explanation of the crisis -there wasn't enough regulation- is wrong. He things it's the opposite and there should be less regulation and more competition, also between monies.
Bob also shares his thoughts about whether a democracy can lead to a monopoly on money and whether that's morally acceptable. Also bitcoin is analysed to see if it's in line with the regression theorem. Furthermore the Austrian commodity theory of money is compared to the State theory of money (Graeber, Keen et al).
Finally the gents talk about the US elections and whether Austrians should vote for Sanders.


