David Skrbina on Ted Kaczynski, Technological Slavery, and the Future of Our Species - Episode #7 Manifold 2024-10-22 | David Skrbina on Ted Kaczynski, Technological Slavery, and the Future of Our Species - Episode #7
Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57 Manifold 2024-04-04 | Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at $2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at $250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."Links:Casey Handmer’s website: caseyhandmer.comTerraform Industries: terraformindustries.comNerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEUSteve and Casey discuss:0:00 Introduction00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship10:40 Terraform Industries15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolutionMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56 Manifold 2024-03-21 | Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: russell-clark.comSteve and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan13:25 Hong Kong and finance31:53 China property bubble48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observationsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55 Manifold 2024-03-09 | Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets31:47 Dating markets32:53 The Art of PR38:32 Global reach and community engagement39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuffManifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54 Manifold 2024-02-22 | Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.Steve and Ray discuss:0:00 Introduction01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963?Books referenced in this episode:JFK and the Unspeakableamazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedyamazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53 Manifold 2024-02-08 | Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?Slides: docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharingFurther discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.htmlCORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!!Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — Manifold #52 Manifold 2024-01-25 | Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_ReyesNOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL400:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history14:21 Sean's personal journey and career21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom28:45 The reality of human trafficking31:40 Technology and law enforcement44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media01:05:23 Future plans and aspirationsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @hsu_steve.
Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #51 Manifold 2024-01-11 | TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.Previous episodes with TP include:China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44Steve and TP discuss: 0:00 Introduction2:23 Hypersonic weapons and A2AD8:15 The evolution of China's military technology13:30 Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception 29:52 Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle? 33:36 Japan's role in a U.S.-China military conflict36:15 Chinese invasion of Taiwan42:44 Amphibious landing, boots on the ground45:20 Red lines and Taiwan independence48:38 PRC nuclear weapons buildup51:17 PRC-Russia alliance: natural resources, technology; Ukraine strategy disaster59:37 Future developments of military technology in China1:11:44 Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of powerMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Louis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — #50 Manifold 2023-12-14 | Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.research.gavekal.comSteve and Louis discuss:0:00 Early life - Gave as French infantry officer14:42 Founding Gavekal23:50 Understanding China economic growth32:57 China real estate market42:48 The impact of China’s economic growth48:19 Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies1:07:09 China’s trade surplus and U.S. debt1:18:11 Will there be a U.S. debt crisis?–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Charles Miller: Satellite Technology and the Future of Mobile Connectivity — #49 Manifold 2023-11-30 | Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.Lynk - https://lynk.world/0:00 Introduction and guest background1:27 Miller's early passion for space3:54 Evolution of commercial space6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX8:01 The challenges of early stage startups11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites36:41 Competition with Starlink39:25 Investment opportunities in Lynk47:04 Satellite technology and global competition50:21 Impact of Huawei’s satellite phone features59:01 Advice for entrepreneursMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Chinas EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48 Manifold 2023-11-16 | TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: twitter.com/tphuang.0:00 Introduction2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market14:41 Buying a car in China27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehiclesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: Chinas tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — #47 Manifold 2023-11-02 | Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Bharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha — #46 Manifold 2023-10-19 | Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.Karnad's blog: bharatkarnad.comKarnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmesAn excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciencesSteve and Bharat discuss:0:00 Introduction0:58 Karnad's educational background, nuclear research, journalism career26:50 Refocusing India's defense posture from Pakistan to China45:21 Why don't India and China have better relations?53:33 India's nuclear arsenal1:04:31 The mysterious death of Homi Bhabha, India's Oppenheimer1:28:50 Land of subjugation, the caste system, and English as the language of Indian elitesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Yasheng Huang: Chinas Examination System and its impact on Politics, Economy, Innovation — #45 Manifold 2023-10-05 | Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.Steve and Yasheng discuss:0:00 Introduction1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination48:33 Impact of the exam system57:04 China's innovation peak and decline1:12:23 Collaboration and relationship with the West1:21:31 How will the U.S.-China relationship evolve?Yasheng Huang at MIThttps://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/yasheng-huangWeb site:http://www.yashenghuang.comMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44 Manifold 2023-09-21 | TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: twitter.com/tphuang.Steve and TP discuss:0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics28:21 Impact on Qualcomm36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for Chinasemiconductor companies42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.47:14 5G and Huawei52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones56:46 Huawei vs Apple and Chinese consumers1:01:33 Chip War and AI model trainingMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Meritocracy, SAT Scores, and Laundering Prestige at Elite Universities — #43 Manifold 2023-09-07 | Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies.Slides: docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharingCLA and College Learning outcomes:infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/01/measuring-college-learning-outcomes.htmlHarvard Veritas: Interview with a recent graduateinfoproc.blogspot.com/2022/08/harvard-veritas-interview-with-recent.htmlDefining Merit - Human Capital and Harvard University:infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.htmlChapter markers:0:00 Introduction 1:28 University of California system report and the use of SAT scores admissions8:04 Longitudinal study on gifted students and SAT scores (SMPY)12:53 Unprecedented data on earnings outcomes and SAT scores15:43 How SAT scores and university pedigree influence opportunities at elite firms17:35 Non-academic factors fail to predict student success20:49 Predicted earnings24:24 Measured benefit of Ivy Plus attendance28:25 CLA: 13 university study on college learning outcomes32:34 Does college education improve generalist skills and critical thinking?42:15 The composition of elite universities: 4 paths to admission48:12 What happened to meritocracy?51:48 Hard versus Soft career tracks54:43 Cognitive elite at Ivies vs state flagship universities57:11 What happened to Caltech?Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Aella: Sex Work, Sex Research, and Data Science — #42 Manifold 2023-08-24 | Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist.Aella on X: twitter.com/Aella_GirlInterviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas)youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenelloAn earlier Aella interview with Reason:reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientistSteve and Aella discuss: 00:00 Introduction01:22 Aella's background and upbringing12:45 Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting29:52 Pimp culture38:01 Seeking Arrangement43:50 Cheating46:50 OnlyFans, farming simps51:49 Incels and sex work56:24 Porn and Gen-Z01:12:43 Embryo screening01:21:43 How far off is IVG?Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
AI on your phone? Tim Dettmers on quantization of neural networks — #41 Manifold 2023-08-10 | Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements.Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs.Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI.0:00 Introduction and Tim’s background18:02 Tim's interest in the efficiency and accessibility of large language models38:05 Inference, speed, and the potential for using consumer GPUs for running large language models45:55 Model training and the benefits of quantization with QLoRA57:14 The future of AI and large language models in the next 3-5 years and beyondTim's site: timdettmers.comTim on GitHub: github.com/TimDettmersMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Paul Huang, the real situation in Taiwan: politics, military, China — #40 Manifold 2023-07-27 | Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan.Sample articles:Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammoTaiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shellSteve and Paul discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:44 Paul’s background; the Green Party (DPP) and Blue Party (KMT) in Taiwan4:40 How the Taiwanese people view themselves vs mainland Chinese15:02 Taiwan taboos: politics and military preparedness15:27 Effect of Ukraine conflict on Taiwanese opinion29:56 Lack of realistic military planning37:20 Is there a political solution to reunification with China? What influence does the U.S. have?51:34 The likelihood of peaceful reunification of Taiwan and China56:45 Honest views on Taiwanese and U.S. military readiness for aconflict with ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Hanania & Rob Henderson: The Rise of Wokeness and the Influence of Civil Rights Law — #39 Manifold 2023-07-13 | Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!They discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Court affirmative action ruling50:10 Standardized testing and elite university admissions1:06:18 Divergent views among racial and ethnic groups on affirmative action; radicalized Asian American males1:10:00 Differences between East and South Asians in the West 1:23:03 Class-based preferences and standardized tests1:31:57 Rob Henderson’s next move LINKSRichard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics: harpercollins.com/products/the-origins-of-woke-richard-hanania?variant=41004650528802Richard Hanania’s newsletter: richardhanania.comThe Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology: cspicenter.comRob Henderson’s newsletter: robkhenderson.comRob Henderson’s new book: Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class: simonandschuster.com/books/Troubled/Rob-Henderson/9781982168537UATX: uaustin.org/forbidden-coursesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Sander (UCLA Law) on the Supreme Court Affirmative Action Ruling — #38 Manifold 2023-07-01 | Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.0:00 Introduction1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling16:59 The litigation landscape21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now?38:02 The landscape of college admissions44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher educationLINKSSCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action:int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/supreme-court-decision-on-race-based-admissions/0a725aaabb459074/full.pdfRichard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC: manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-on-scotus-oral-arguments-affirmative-action-and-discrimination-against-asian-americans-at-harvard-and-uncRichard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, and Academic Freedom: manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-affirmative-action-mismatch-theory-academic-freedom-6Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
AI Cambrian Explosion: Conversation With Three AI Engineers — #37 Manifold 2023-06-08 | In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.0:00 Introduction1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI 14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside41:28 AI Doomers and AlignmentLinks to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-aiMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
David Goldman: US-China Competition, AI, Electric Vehicles, and Manufacturing — #36 Manifold 2023-05-25 | David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000.Steve and David discuss:0:00 Introduction2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition1:04:07 Predictions for TaiwanLinks:David Goldman in Wikipedia:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._GoldmanSpengler column:asiatimes.com/author/spenglerYou Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the Worldamazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urgent task of our lifetimeclaremontreviewofbooks.com/prisoners-dilemmaDavid Goldman articles in Claremont Review:claremontreviewofbooks.com/author/david-p-goldmanMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Steve Hsu Oxford Lecture — #35 Manifold 2023-05-11 | This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models.Lecture slides: docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharingChapter markers:0:00 Introduction2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results21:15 Embedding space, word vectors31:53 Next word prediction as objective function34:08 Attention is all you need37:09 Transformer architecture44:54 The geometry of thought52:57 What can LLMs do? Sparks of AGI1:02:41 Hallucination 1:14:40 SuperFocus testing and examples1:18:40 AI landscape, AGI, and the futureMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai., SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Simone Collins: IVF, Embryo Selection, Dating on the Spectrum, and Pronatalism — #34 Manifold 2023-04-27 | In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com). Steve and Simone discuss:0:00 Introduction1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening40:02 Dating; girl autists55:41 Finding a husband, systematized1:09:57 Pronatalism Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, SuperFocus.ai) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Katherine Dee: Culture, Identity, and Isolation in the Digital Age — #33 Manifold 2023-04-13 | Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian.Steve and Katherine discuss:0:00 Introduction1:15 Katherine’s early life and background21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter1:33:00 TikTok1:41:41 Adderall1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright?References:Katherine’s Substack: defaultfriend.substack.com“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”: contra.substack.com/p/mass-shootings-and-the-world-liberalism–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Marc Martinez: Dream Big and the Golden Age of Bodybuilding — #32 Manifold 2023-03-16 | Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s.Steve and Marc discuss:0:00 Introduction1:34 Marc's background in bodybuilding5:25 Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California25:52 Setting the record straight on steroid use 33:40 Frank Zane38:23 Robby Robinson40:20 Butler, Gaines, and Arnold42:35 'Dream Big' 48:07 Pumping Iron59:40 Hypersexuality in bodybuilding1:10:44 What's next for MarcReferences:Watch Dream Big on Amazon: amazon.com/Dream-Big-Ken-Sprague/dp/B0B8ST5LNLDream Big documentary: dreambigdoc.comDream Big trailer: youtube.com/watch?v=X22ISDn083APumping Iron: youtube.com/watch?v=6lCCk6rgn84Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Gilles Saint-Paul: The Yellow Vests, French Politics, and Hypergamy — #31 Manifold 2023-03-02 | Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy.0:00 Introduction1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and education6:31 French and American higher elite education14:44 The Yellow Vests41:46 Mating and HypergamyLinks:On the Yellow Vest Insurrectiongillessaintpaul.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/on-the-yellow-vest-insurrectionGenes, Legitimacy and Hypergamy: Another Look at the Economics of Marriageideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/9118.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30 Manifold 2023-02-16 | Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos.00:00 Introduction02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination20:52 China demographics & STEM34:29 China IVF40:28 Survey on embryo screening in ScienceReferences:Bing vs Bard and Hallucination twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119China demographics and STEMtwitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623279827640848385China IVFtwitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623475304432820224twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623478413758500864Survey on embryo screeningtwitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623783244947722241twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623664372202500097Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29 Manifold 2023-02-02 | Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT. 0:00 How do LLMs work?10:22 Impact of ChatGPT15:21 AI landscape24:13 Hallucination and Focus33:09 Applications39:29 Future LandscapeReferences:Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI:manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16Blog posts on word vectors and approximately linear vector space of concepts used by the human mind:infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-future-of-thought-via-thought.htmlinfoproc.blogspot.com/2016/12/towards-geometry-of-thought.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Dominic Cummings: Vote Leave, Brexit, COVID, and No. 10 with Boris — #28 Manifold 2023-01-19 | Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and more in this 2-hour episode.Steve and Dominic discuss: 0:00 Early Life: Oxford, Russia, entering politics16:49 Keeping the UK out of the Euro19:41 How Dominic and Steve became acquainted: blogs, 2008 financial crisis, meeting at Google27:37 Vote Leave, the science of polling43:46 Cambridge Analytica conspiracy; History is impossible48:41 Dominic on Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of him and the movie “Brexit: The Uncivil War”54:05 On joining British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office: an ultimatum1:06:31 The pandemic1:21:28 The Deep State, talent pipeline for public service1:47:25 Quants and weirdos invade No.101:52:06 Can the Tories win the next election?1:56:27 Trump in 2024? References:Dominic’s Substack newsletter: dominiccummings.substack.comMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Sahil Lavingia: Founding Gumroad, The Minimalist Entrepreneur, and our AI LLM future — #27 Manifold 2023-01-05 | Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups.Steve and Sahil discuss:0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins24:15 Backstory of Gumroad30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad37:09 Experiments with OpenAI LLM, ChatGPT, and the promise of AIReferences:Sahil's web pagesahillavingia.comAsk My Book: interrogate Sahil's book via LLMaskmybook.com–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter twitter.com/@hsu_steve.
Geoffrey Miller: Evolutionary Psychology, Polyamorous Relationships, and Effective Altruism — #26 Manifold 2022-12-15 | Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution.For reference: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29Steve and Geoffrey discuss:0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology14:44 How evolutionary psychology is perceived and where the field is going38:23 The value of higher education: sobering facts about retention49:00 Dating, pickup artists, and relationships1:11:27 Polyamory1:24:56 FTX, poly, and effective altruism1:34:31 AI alignmentMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Anna Krylov: The Politicization of Science in Academia — #25 Manifold 2022-12-01 | Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry.Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peril of Politicizing Science, launched a national conversation among scientists and the general public on the growing influence of political ideology in STEM. It has received over 80,000 views and, according to Altmetric, was the all-time highest-ranked article in the Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters.Steve and Anna discuss: 0:00 Anna Krylov’s background, upbringing in USSR7:03 Ideological control and censorship for the greater good?14:59 How ideology underpins DEI work in academic institutions30:40 Captured institutions37:05 How much is UC Berkeley spending on DEI, and where the money is going41:46 Krylov thinks it can get worse52:09 An idea for soliciting anonymous feedback at universitiesResources:Professor Krylov academic page:https://dornsife.usc.edu/chemistry/krylov/Wiki page:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_KrylovThe Peril of Politicizing Science, Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters 2021pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpclett.1c01475Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/@hsu_steve.
Abdel Abdellaoui: Genetics, Psychiatric Traits, and Educational Attainment — #24 Manifold 2022-11-17 | Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam.Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures.Steve and Abdel discuss:00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career10:23 Abdel’s research focus: polygenic traits, geographical stratification21:43 Correlations across geographical regions33:21 Educational Attainment38:51 Comparisons across data sets44:48 Longevity52:04 Reaction to NIH restricting access to data on educational attainmentResources:Abdel Abdellaoui’s Google Scholar citations: scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsyseKEAAAAJ&hl=enMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination at Harvard and UNC Manifold 2022-11-03 | Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences. Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina. 0:00 Rick’s experience at the Supreme Court4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments16:24 Analyzing the court’s questions29:09 The negative impact on Asian American students34:41 Shifting sentiment on affirmative action40:04 Three potential outcomes for Harvard and UNC cases44:00 Possible reasons for conservatives to be optimistic50:31 Final thoughts on experiencing oral arguments in person52:12 Mismatch theory 56:31 The future of higher education Resources Background on the Harvard case:infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html Transcripts:supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/20-1199_6537.pdfsupremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/21-707_m64n.pdfPrevious interview with Richard (Manifold #6)youtube.com/watch?v=7Pda6efrHgcMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Discovering the Multiverse: Quantum Mechanics and Hugh Everett III, with Peter Byrne — #22 Manifold 2022-10-20 | Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science Jeffrey A. Barrett of UC Irvine.Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists.Steve and Peter discuss:0:00 How Peter Byrne came to write a biography of Hugh Everett18:09 Everett’s personal life and groundbreaking thesis as a catalyst for the book24:00 Everett and Decoherence31:25 Reaction of other physicists to Everett’s many worlds theory40:46 Steve’s take on Everett’s many worlds theory43:41 Peter on the bifurcation of science and philosophy49:21 Everett’s post-academic life52:58 How Hugh Everett is remembered now References:Many Worlds posts on Infoproc: infoproc.blogspot.com/search/label/many%20worldsConversations with Dieter Zeh: infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/04/feynman-and-everett.html Macroscopic Superpositions in Isolated Systems: infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/06/macroscopic-superpositions-in-isolated.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Jeffrey Sachs: Lessons from the COVID Commission, Lab Leak Questions, and Nord Stream — #21 Manifold 2022-10-06 | Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank.Steve and Jeffrey discuss:0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-1913:41 Potential for bioweapons research19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotageBrief Summary:Sachs led a 2 year study of Covid organized for the Lancet. One of the task forces was focused on covid origins. Sachs feels that members of this task force were engaged in a deliberate cover up which tried to push the natural origin hypothesis from the beginning. His conclusion is that a lab origin hypothesis is still viable, and indeed more likely than the natural origin hypothesis. The US is treaty bound to only do "defensive" bioweapons research and development, but this includes the creation and study of dangerous viral strains -- e.g., so that vaccine efficacy and related technologies can be studied. The US spends ~$10 billion per annum on biodefense research, much of it funneled through NIAID (NIH institute for infectious diseases). Many of the researchers involved in "gain of function" genetic engineering are funded via NIAID and have been for decades. Sachs claims that the genetic engineering research to add a human-specific cleavage site to a coronavirus was actually performed, although the specific 2017 research plan uncovered in 2021 investigation was not funded. theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-grant-darpadocumentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposalResources: The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19pandemic, Sachs et al., Sept. 14 2022: thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltextWhy the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The USGovernment Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic,Current Affairs, Aug 3 2022: jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56ehbjwy37m5hfahwnm5Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Rob Henderson: A Journey from Foster Care to the US Military to Elite Academia — #20 Manifold 2022-09-22 | Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class.Steve and Rob discuss:00:00 Early life and foster experience20:21 Rob’s experience in the Air Force31:26 Transitioning from the Air Force to Yale and then Cambridge44:04 Dating and socializing as an older student50:06 Reflections on the Yale Halloween email controversy1:01:10 Personal incentives and careerists in higher education1:09:45 Luxury beliefs and how they show up in elite institutions1:31:08 Age and moral judgments1:42:50 Rob on resisting legacy academia and his futureLinks:Rob's substackrobkhenderson.substack.comLuxury Beliefs are the Latest Status Symbol for Rich Americansnypost.com/2019/08/17/luxury-beliefs-are-the-latest-status-symbol-for-rich-americansMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Lyle Goldstein on U.S. Strategic Challenges: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Taiwan — #19 Manifold 2022-09-08 | Professor Lyle Goldstein recently retired after 20 years of service on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). During his career at NWC, he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and has been awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for this achievement. He has written or edited seven books on Chinese strategy and is at work on a book-length project that examines the nature of China-Russia relations in the 21st century. He has a longstanding interest in great power politics, military competition, and security in the pacific region.Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at the Washington think-tank Defense Priorities, which advocates for realism and restraint in U.S.defense policy, and also a visiting professor at the Watson Institutefor International and Public Affairs at Brown University. He earned a PhD at Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and an AB from Harvard. He is fluent in both Chinese and Russian.Steve and Lyle discuss:00:00 Early life and background18:03 Goldstein’s dissertation on China’s nuclear strategy37:35 Pushback on “Meeting China Halfway”41:24 Could the U.S. have prevented war in Ukraine?46:05 How territorial conflicts are influencing China’s relationship with Russia1:00:16 Analyzing war games with U.S., China, and TaiwanLinks:Watson Institute, Brown Universityhttps://watson.brown.edu/china/people/lyle-goldsteinMeeting China Halfway (2015)amazon.com/Meeting-China-Halfway-Emerging-US-China/dp/162616634XHere's Why War With China Could Elevate to Nuclear StrikesThe National Interest, January 29 2022nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/heres-why-war-china-could-elevate-nuclear-strikes-200099Goldstein's articles at The National Interestnationalinterest.org/profile/lyle-j-goldsteinMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Harvard Veritas: interview with a recent graduate (anonymous) — #18 Manifold 2022-08-25 | The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly.Steve and his guest discuss:0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and the humanities46:47 Access to tenured professors at Harvard50:08 The benefits of the Harvard connection and wider pool of opportunities58:46 Competing with off-scale students 1:00:48 Ideological climate on campus, wokeism, and controversial public speakers1:23:11 Dating at Harvard1:26:52 Z-scores and other metrics to add to the admissions processHarvard Admissions and Meritocracy:http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.htmlinfoproc.blogspot.com/2014/09/what-is-best-for-harvard.htmlHarvard Affirmative Action Lawsuit:infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.htmlinfoproc.blogspot.com/2019/09/former-yale-law-dean-on-harvard-anti.htmlinfoproc.blogspot.com/2018/06/harvard-office-of-institutional_21.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Lowery: The War for American Universities — #17 Manifold 2022-07-27 | Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus.Steve and Richard discuss: 0:00 Richard Lowery's academic and political background 9:01 Campus environment for academics and faculty members12:19 Cultural and political dynamics at academic institutions23:04 How students experience campus culture and political influences32:13 Public awareness and interest in campus culture35:50 What happened to the Liberty Institute at UT Austin53:44 Donor influence1:00:55 STEM professors: keep quiet, or else 1:08:25 Lowery on the future of US universitiesLinks:Richard Lowery at UT Austin:https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-lowery/National Review coverage:nationalreview.com/corner/a-brave-prof-fights-the-woke-faculty-at-university-of-texasAcademic Freedom in Crisis:infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/academic-freedom-in-crisis-punishment.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Tim Palmer (Oxford): Status and Future of Climate Modeling — #16 Manifold 2022-07-14 | Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute.He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events.He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR) on climate variability and predictability.After completing his DPhil at Oxford in theoretical physics, Tim worked at the UK Meteorological Office and later the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For a large part of his career, Tim has developed ensemble methods for predicting uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts.In 2020 Tim was elected to the US National Academy of Sciences.Steve, Corey Washington, and Tim first discuss his career path from physics to climate research and then explore the science of climate modeling and the main uncertainties in state-of-the-art models.In this episode, we discuss:00:00 Introduction1:48 Tim Palmer's background and transition from general relativity to climate modeling15:13 Climate modeling uncertainty46:41 Navier-Stokes equations in climate modeling53:37 Where climate change is an existential risk1:01:26 Investment in climate researchLinks:Tim Palmer (Oxford University)ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/find-an-expert/professor-tim-palmer The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change (2019)pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1906691116 ExtremeEarthhttps://extremeearth.eu/Physicist Steve Koonin on climate change:infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/how-physicist-became-climate-truth.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Kishore Mahbubani: A Nuanced View of Asia & Chinas Rise — #15 Manifold 2022-06-30 | Kishore Mahbubani is Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore. Kishore enjoyed two distinct careers: in diplomacy (1971 to 2004) and in academia (2004 to 2019). He is a prolific writer and speaker on geopolitics and East-West relations. He was twice Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002. Mr. Mahbubani joined academia in 2004 when he was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKY School), NUS. He was Dean from 2004 to 2017.In this episode Steve and Kishore discuss:0:00 Introduction2:52 Upbringing in Singapore and Asia's rise11:35 How western thinking influences China-U.S. relations23:05 Is China a threat to U.S. hegemony in Asia?25:52 The United States' long-term strategy for China32:13 How trade with ASEAN influences U.S.-China relations40:58 Can ASEAN countries play a diplomatic role between U.S. and China43:05 Xi Jinping's leadership and the zero-sum view of ChinaLinks:Can Asians Think? - mahbubani.net/can-asians-thinkThe Asian 21st Century - mahbubani.net/the-asian-21st-centuryHas China Won? - mahbubani.net/has-china-wonMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Greg Clark: Genetics and Social Mobility — #14 Manifold 2022-06-16 | Gregory Clark is Distinguished Professor of Economics at UC-Davis. He is an editor of the European Review of Economic History, chair of the steering committee of the All-UC Group in Economic History, and a Research Associate of the Center for Poverty Research at Davis. He was educated at Cambridge University and received a PhD from Harvard University.His areas of research are long-term economic growth, the wealth of nations, economic history, and social mobility.Steve and Greg discuss:0:00 Introduction2:31 Background in economics and genetics10:25 The role of genetics in determining social outcomes16:27 Measuring social status through marriage and occupation36:15 Assortative mating and the industrial revolution49:38 Criticisms of empirical data, engagement on genetics and economic history1:12:12 Heckman and Landerso study of social mobility in US vs Denmark1:24:32 Predicting cognitive traits1:33:26 Assortative mating and increase in population varianceLinks:For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 shows Genetics Determines most Social Outcomeshttp://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/ClarkGlasgow2021.pdfFurther discussion: infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/03/genetic-correlation-of-social-outcomes.htmlA Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the Worlden.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Farewell_to_AlmsThe Son Also Risesen.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Son_Also_Rises_(book)Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
John Mearsheimer: Great Powers, U.S. Hegemony, and the Rise of China — #13 Manifold 2022-06-02 | This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine. John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.Steve, Corey, and John discuss:0:00 A quick message for listeners1:21 Introduction2:39 Realist foreign policy worldview15:46 Proxy conflicts and the U.S.21:31 U.S. history: a moral hegemon, or just a hegemon? Zinn and Chomsky29:50 U.S.-China relationship, competing hegemonies?36:44 Will Europe become more united?41:23 China’s ambitions46:12 Europe’s fragmentation and population trends47:57 What drove U.S. interventions after the Cold War?51:36 Coalitions and U.S.-China competitionResources:John Mearsheimer - mearsheimer.comThe Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities - amazon.com/Great-Delusion-Liberal-International-Realities-ebook/dp/B07H3XRPQSMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.
Theodore A. Postol: Nuclear Weapons, Missile Technology, and U.S. Diplomacy — #12 Manifold 2022-05-19 | Theodore A. Postol is professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is widely known as an expert on nuclear weapons and missile technology. Educated in physics and nuclear engineering at MIT, he was a researcher at Argonne National Lab, worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and was scientific advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped to build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy. He has received numerous awards, including the Leo Szilard Prize from the American Physical Society for "incisive technical analysis of national security issues that [have] been vital for informing the public policy debate", the Norbert Wiener Award from Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility for "uncovering numerous and important false claims about missile defenses", and the Richard L. Garwin Award "that recognizes an individual who, through exceptional achievement in science and technology, has made an outstanding contribution toward the benefit of mankind." Steve and Ted discuss: 0:00 Introduction2:02 Early life in Brooklyn, education at MIT, work at the Pentagon20:27 Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense plan28:26 U.S. influence on Russia and China’s second-strike capabilities54:41 Missile defense: vs nuclear weapons, scuds, anti-ship missiles (aircraft carriers), hypersonics1:11:42 Nuclear escalation and the status of mutually assured destruction1:32:24 Analysis of claims the Syrian government used chemical agents against their own people1:44:45 Media skepticism Resources: Theodore Postol at MIThttps://sts-program.mit.edu/people/emeriti-faculty/theodore-postol/ A Flawed and Dangerous US Missile Defense Plan, G. Lewis and T. Postol, Arms Control Todayarmscontrol.org/act/2010-05/flawed-dangerous-us-missile-defense-plan Review Cites Flaws in US antimissile Program, NY Times May 17 2010nytimes.com/2010/05/18/world/18missile.htmlImproving US Ballistic Missile Defense Policy, G. Lewis and F. von Hippel, Arms Control Today, May 2018https://sgs.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/lewis-vonhippel-2018.pdf “Whose Sarin?” by Seymour Hersh (2013)lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n24/seymour-m.-hersh/whose-sarin --Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.For transcripts, visit manifold1.com/.
Raghuveer Parthasarathy: The Four Physical Principles — #11 Manifold 2022-05-05 | Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World. Steve and Raghu discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:34 Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics20:15 So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in the title, which govern biological systems26:06 DNA prediction37:46 Machine learning / causality in science46:23 Scaling (the fourth physical principle) 54:12 Who the book is for and what high schoolers are learning in their bio and physics classes1:05:41 Science funding, grants, running a research lab1:09:12 Scientific careers and radical sub-optimality of the existing system Resources: Book - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200408/so-simple-a-beginning Raghuveer Parthasarathy's lab at the University of Oregon - https://pages.uoregon.edu/raghu/ Raghuveer Parthasarathy's blog the Eighteenth Elephant - eighteenthelephant.comMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at twitter.com/hsu_steve.Find transcripts at https://manifold1.com.
Richard Hanania: Wokeness, Public Choice Theory, & Geostrategy — #3 Manifold 2022-05-03 | Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago.He is the author of the recently published Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.ResourcesRichard Hanania on Twitter - twitter.com/RichardHananiaCSPI - cspicenter.orgPublic Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategyamazon.com/Public-Choice-Theory-Illusion-Strategy-ebook/dp/B09L9Y2W7SThe Great Awokening | Zach Goldberg & Richard Hananiayoutube.com/watch?v=4UmdveWMURc&ab_channel=CSPIFor transcripts, visit manifold1.com.Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Sebastian Mallaby: Venture capital as an engine of courage — #8 Manifold 2022-05-03 | Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation.Biography:cfr.org/expert/sebastian-mallabyen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_MallabyThe Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Futureamazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.For transcripts, visit https://manifold1.com.
James on Polygenic Prediction & Embryo Selection — #1 Manifold 2022-05-03 | James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex. Resources:Imagine a Future Without Sex: Reproductive technology may lead us to realize too late that being human is better than playing God - wsj.com/articles/sexuality-polygenic-testing-genetic-screening-intelligence-ivf-reproductive-technology-11630347002James Lee academic web page - https://cla.umn.edu/about/directory/profile/leex2293Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC) - infoproc.blogspot.com/search?q=james+lee+ssgacNature Genetics: Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individuals - nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure - youtube.com/watch?v=lKbz_kaU2O0&t=1007s&ab_channel=StateAzure --Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve. You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.
