Dwarkesh Patel
Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake
updated
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF
Me on Twitter: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift which is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.
Enjoy!
Thanks to the Roots of Progress Institute (with special thanks to Jason Crawford and Heike Larson) for such a wonderful conference, and to @freethink for the videography.
Roots of Progress Institute: rootsofprogress.org
Sponsors
I’m grateful to Tyler for volunteering to say a few words about Jane Street. It's the first time that a guest has participated in the sponsorship. I hope you can see why Tyler and I think so highly of Jane Street. To learn more about their open roles, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh
Links
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/tyler-cowen-4
Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/3RFuS7b
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/48EIEaESY0IGxf02pzIEIN?si=d2S1y6HUQuulAOGKVV7GhQ
Timestamps
(00:00:00) Economic Growth and AI
(00:15:45) Founder Mode and increasing variance
(00:30:19) Effective Altruism and Progress Studies
(00:33:53) What AI changes for Tyler
(00:45:45) The slow diffusion of innovation
(00:50:41) Stalin's library
(00:53:07) DC vs SF vs EU
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF
Me on Twitter: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift which is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.
Enjoy!
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF
Me on Twitter: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift which is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.
Enjoy!
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF
Me on Twitter: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift which is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.
Enjoy!
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF
Me on Twitter: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift which is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.
Enjoy!
More information here: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/roles
We discuss: destroying the light cone with vacuum decay, holographic principle, mining black holes, & what it would take to train LLMs that can make Einstein level conceptual breakthroughs.
Stupefying, fascinating, & terrifying.
Enjoy!
Read the transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/adam-brown
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/4JH4tybY1zX6e5hjCwU6gF
Sponsors:
- Deepmind, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI, partner with Scale for high quality data to fuel post-training Publicly available data is running out - to keep developing smarter and smarter models, labs will need to rely on Scale’s data foundry, which combines subject matter experts with AI models to generate fresh data and break through the data wall. Learn more at scale.com/dwarkesh
- Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open for just a few more weeks. If you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh
- This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more at stripe.com
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) - Changing the laws of physics
(00:26:53) - Why is our universe the way it is
(00:38:22) - Making Einstein level AGI
(01:01:19) - Physics stagnation and particle colliders
(01:12:07) - Hitchhiking
(01:29:48) - Nagasaki
(01:37:07) - Adam’s career
(01:44:18) - Mining black holes
(02:00:30) - The holographic principle
(02:24:13) - Philosophy of infinities
(02:32:30) - Engineering constraints for future civilizations
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/gwern-branwen
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gwern-branwen-how-an-anonymous-researcher-predicted/id1516093381?i=1000676859036
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/46H5dTtYaj1L55UAy9XXaY?si=e2f5f418f3994c62
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/gwern-branwen
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gwern-branwen-how-an-anonymous-researcher-predicted/id1516093381?i=1000676859036
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/46H5dTtYaj1L55UAy9XXaY?si=e2f5f418f3994c62
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer.
After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go here to contribute: donate.stripe.com/6oE9DTgaf6oD0M03cc
Thank you to my friend Chris Painter for doing an amazing job voice acting Gwern.
Sponsors:
- Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go here: jane-st.co/dwarkesh
- Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models’ reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at turing.com/dwarkesh.
- This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more here: stripe.com
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/gwern-branwen
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/46H5dTtYaj1L55UAy9XXaY?si=xVoj6euwQdmZYnyvaQ46lA
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Anonymity
00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs
00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress
00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence
00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early
00:21:04 - AGI Timelines
00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI
00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing
00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence
00:33:52 - Rabbit holes
00:38:48 - Hearing impairment
00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing
00:47:43 - Gwern.net
00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers
00:54:30 - Borges & literature
01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process
01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern
01:19:16 - Gwern's finances
01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds
01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity
01:31:08 - Drug experimentation
01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships
01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=seXQ6K_LQZeAV6776H6MhQ
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=seXQ6K_LQZeAV6776H6MhQ
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Jon Y runs @Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history.
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=seXQ6K_LQZeAV6776H6MhQ
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Sponsors:
- Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go here: jane-st.co/dwarkesh
- Stripe builds financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more here: stripe.com
Timestamps:
0:00:00 – Xi’s path to AGI
0:05:05 – Liang Mong Song
0:09:10 – How semiconductors get better
0:12:01 – China can centralize compute
0:19:35 – Export controls & sanctions
0:33:36 – Huawei’s intense culture
0:39:36 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified
0:41:43 – N2 should not exist
0:46:38 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical
0:50:06 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors
0:59:58 – Chip architecture design
1:05:21 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US
1:10:57 – Being head of compute at an AI lab
1:17:09 – Scaling costs and power demand
1:37:50 – Are we financing an AI bubble?
01:51:05 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis
02:06:55 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack
If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/david-reich
Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/3RFuS7b
Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3APeQ3L
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/daniel-yergin
Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/3RFuS7b
Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3APeQ3L
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise
Transcript: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/daniel-yergin
Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/3RFuS7b
Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3APeQ3L
Me on Twitter: twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast: dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise


