Uploaded November 2025 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
Astead Herndon is frustrated by polling. After a career spent speaking directly with voters around the country about their priorities, he has found that the flat numbers of surveys rarely capture the complex realities of Americans. I sat down with Herndon, recently named editorial director of Vox after covering elections for The New York Times since 2018, to reflect on the past decade of voters’ choices and what they reveal about the nation’s identity.
While Herndon and I agree about the seismic impact of President Donald Trump’s 2016 victory on the news media, we disagree on the role racism played in his election. We had a productive debate as we discussed why black male voters shifted toward Trump in 2024.
We also delved into New York City politics, examining how Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s positions evolved over the course of his campaign and the challenges he will face in office as he tries to get things done while maintaining the expectations of his base.
This conversation is full of insights on how the media can better understand the country, and proves that healthy disagreement can be as enlightening as agreement.
00:00 – Intro
1:00 - Ad
01:31 - 2016: How Trump’s Win Changed Their Worldviews
10:05 - Race, Identity & the Obama-to-Trump Voter Puzzle
16:23 - Why Voters Defied Elite Narratives
19:14 - What Mamdani’s Win Actually Signals
23:42 - Mamdani 1.0 → 2.0: The Policing Pivot
29:25 - Crime, Affordability & What Voters Truly Care About
33:34 - Ad
33:50 - The Limits of Polling & Why It Misses Real Sentiment
39:25 - Why Has Trump Gained Support with Black Men?
43:19 - Mamdani, Israel, & Ideological Red Lines
49:29 - Rent Freeze, Economics & Policy Reality Checks
55:30 - What a Mayor Can Actually Do (and What Mamdani Can't)
58:39 - 2028 & Beyond: Who Do Democrats Run?
1:01:17 - Closing and Where to Find Astead
Astead Herndon is frustrated by polling. After a career spent speaking directly with voters around the country about their priorities, he has found that the flat numbers of surveys rarely capture the complex realities of Americans. I sat down with Herndon, recently named editorial director of Vox after covering elections for The New York Times since 2018, to reflect on the past decade of voters’ choices and what they reveal about the nation’s identity.
While Herndon and I agree about the seismic impact of President Donald Trump’s 2016 victory on the news media, we disagree on the role racism played in his election. We had a productive debate as we discussed why black male voters shifted toward Trump in 2024.
We also delved into New York City politics, examining how Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s positions evolved over the course of his campaign and the challenges he will face in office as he tries to get things done while maintaining the expectations of his base.
This conversation is full of insights on how the media can better understand the country, and proves that healthy disagreement can be as enlightening as agreement.
00:00 – Intro
1:00 - Ad
01:31 - 2016: How Trump’s Win Changed Their Worldviews
10:05 - Race, Identity & the Obama-to-Trump Voter Puzzle
16:23 - Why Voters Defied Elite Narratives
19:14 - What Mamdani’s Win Actually Signals
23:42 - Mamdani 1.0 → 2.0: The Policing Pivot
29:25 - Crime, Affordability & What Voters Truly Care About
33:34 - Ad
33:50 - The Limits of Polling & Why It Misses Real Sentiment
39:25 - Why Has Trump Gained Support with Black Men?
43:19 - Mamdani, Israel, & Ideological Red Lines
49:29 - Rent Freeze, Economics & Policy Reality Checks
55:30 - What a Mayor Can Actually Do (and What Mamdani Can't)
58:39 - 2028 & Beyond: Who Do Democrats Run?
1:01:17 - Closing and Where to Find Astead
