Forecast Discussion - May 21, 2024 - Severe Weather Outbreak Expected across the Midwest Convective Chronicles 2026-09-19 | Forecast Discussion - May 21, 2024 - Severe Weather Outbreak Expected across the Midwest
The Catastrophic Central Texas Floods of July 2025: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2025-07-08 | Meteorological breakdown of the catastrophic flash flooding that claimed over 100 lives in central Texas from July 3-5, 2025. In this video, we'll discuss the meteorological factors that came together to cause such a historic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event.Thumbnail image by Michel Fortier via the San Antonio Express-News.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Contents0:00 Introduction1:05 Meteorological analysis18:39 Event radar, rain totals21:44 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - June 20, 2025 - Significant Northern Plains Severe Weather Likely Today Convective Chronicles 2025-06-20 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is likely today across the northern Plains, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Supercells should develop in an upslope regime across eastern Montana/western North Dakota initially, posing a risk for all hazards, before additional convection with an all-hazards threat develops farther east. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging winds are possible.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion on Todays Significant Severe Threat + Nebraska Tornado Insanity Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2025-06-17 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.On June 16, 2025, an incredibly photogenic, long-lived tornado occurred somewhat unexpectedly near Wellfleet, NE, just south of North Platte. We'll take a brief look at the meteorology behind this tornado to begin this video.Today, the SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma. A complex setup is expected to unfold, with multiple rounds of severe storms forecast between ongoing convection and additional convection to develop later. Storms should congeal into an intense complex this evening, posing a risk for significant straight-line winds approaching 100 mph. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible, especially with any more discrete supercells. The threat shifts east tomorrow.***Please note that this was recorded before SPC shifted today's Moderate Risk area southeastward a bit with the 11:30am update.***Thumbnail photo from the Lincoln County (NE) Sheriff's Office.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas3:08 Meteorological breakdown of yesterday's incredible NE tornado16:26 Forecast discussion on today's Moderate Risk32:24 Discussion of tomorrow's setup35:47 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - June 8, 2025 - Southern Plains Derecho Possible Today Convective Chronicles 2025-06-08 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.An intense MCS/possible derecho is expected today across the southern Plains. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across southern Oklahoma and north Texas to cover this risk. Initial supercells should pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds before congealing into a forward-propagating MCS that could produce straight-line wind gusts in the 80-100 mph range this evening.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion - May 20, 2025 - Significant Severe Threat Shifts into Mid-South/Southeast Convective Chronicles 2025-05-20 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Our severe weather outbreak sequence is beginning to wind down but not before a final day of all-hazards risk. SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from the Ohio River southward into the Southeast, where supercells are expected to fire along and ahead of a cold front. All hazards are possible, including very large hail and tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado not out of the question. Transient supercells with a brief tornado risk are also possible near the surface low/warm front across Illinois/Indiana.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion - May 19, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Continues Today Convective Chronicles 2025-05-19 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Our significant severe weather outbreak sequence continues today across the central and southern Plains. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) centered on the eastern half of Oklahoma, surrounded by a large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from southeast Nebraska down into Texas. An initial round of warm-advection-driven severe storms are forecast to develop across eastern portions of the risk area by midday or so, posing a risk for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes and very large hail. By mid-afternoon, another round of storms should develop along the dryline back to the west, initially posing a risk for mainly large to very large hail and damaging winds before the tornado threat increases by late afternoon/early evening.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion - May 18, 2025 - Plains Tornado Outbreak Possible Today Convective Chronicles 2025-05-18 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A tornado outbreak may be on tap today across the central and southern Plains. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, surrounded by a large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from western Nebraska down into Texas. Several discrete supercells are expected to develop this afternoon across this corridor, posing a risk for all severe hazards, including intense/long-track tornadoes and giant hail.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion - May 17, 2025 - Classic Plains Severe Weather Outbreak Sequence on Tap Convective Chronicles 2025-05-17 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Our active pattern continues as a classic stretch of severe weather setups take aim at the Plains starting today. Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) have been outlined by the SPC for the next four days, with each day posing a risk for significant severe hazards, including strong tornadoes and very large hail.Today, widespread convection is expected across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, with a more conditional risk along the warm front from central into northwest Oklahoma. Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be the main risks, but a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if any storms fire near the warm front and via any favorable storm interactions.Tomorrow, discrete supercells are expected ahead of a robust dryline from Nebraska into Texas, with the greatest risk centered on Kansas into northern Oklahoma. All hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes and large to very large hail.Stronger forcing for ascent will overspread the dryline on Monday, leading to a higher-ceiling but lower-floor event. Once again, intense supercells are possible with all hazards, but storm mode remains a question. The threat shifts east into the Mid-South/Southeast on Tuesday.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas4:39 Discussion of today's setup23:16 Discussion of tomorrow's setup30:07 Discussion of Monday/Tuesday setups33:01 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - May 16, 2025 - Ohio Valley Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Convective Chronicles 2025-05-16 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A regional severe weather outbreak is expected today, focused on the Ohio River Valley. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across this area. Multiple rounds of supercells are expected, posing a risk for all severe hazards, including strong/long-track tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging straight-line winds in excess of 80 mph.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas2:38 Brief discussion the next several days' risk areas6:04 Current data analysis22:19 Model analysis32:25 Convection allowing model analysis38:00 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - May 15, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Takes Aim at Midwest Convective Chronicles 2025-05-15 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is on tap for the next couple days from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. Today, an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been outlined from Wisconsin southeastward as a potent trough and robust surface low swing into the region. Widespread storms are expected along the associated frontal zones, posing a risk for all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes, perhaps one or two strong. Tomorrow, the threat shifts slightly south into the Ohio River Valley region, where another Enhanced Risk has been outlined. It's unclear how early convection and storm mode will evolve, but supercells with all hazards, some significant, are once again possible. This active pattern will continue into the weekend and early next week, as well.------------------------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas5:18 Discussion of today's setup40:00 Discussion of tomorrow's setup48:50 Brief discussion of setups this weekend/early next week52:01 Wrap-up
The April 2, 2025, Tornado Outbreak: Behind the High Risk with SPCs Chris Broyles Convective Chronicles 2025-05-14 | On April 2, 2025, a tornado outbreak occurred from the Midwest to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The night before, Storm Prediction Center forecaster Chris Broyles made the decision to upgrade to High Risk, which, at the time, was quite surprising to many in the meteorological community. When all was said and done, the High Risk verified well, with multiple EF3+ tornadoes in and around the High Risk area.In this video, I sit down with Chris to discuss his thought process in the days leading up to his High Risk issuance. He goes through, in detail, what he was seeing in model data regarding the forecast synoptic environment, along with several of the in-house SPC tools that he used to make his High Risk forecast. We also discuss this setup in the context of his OMEGA Project research, including an analysis of the 500 mb jet.Thumbnail image from Luke Robbins (X: @LukeRobbinsWX).---------------------------------------------------------Chapters:0:00 Introduction3:07 OMEGA Project background8:33 Comparison of tools for High/Moderate Risk discrimination12:30 Meteorological analysis for April 2 event - Day 321:10 Meteorological analysis for April 2 event - Day 229:01 Meteorological analysis for April 2 event - Day 152:23 Discussion of High Risk placement55:13 Discussion of right entrance region of jet57:49 High Risk outlook verification1:00:33 Final comments---------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today!1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy ---------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles---------------------------------------------------------Resources:"The OMEGA Project" paper by Broyles et al. - spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf
Forecast Discussion - May 13, 2025 - Active Severe Weather Returns This Week and Beyond Convective Chronicles 2025-05-13 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.After a bit of a lull in widespread severe weather across the US, a pattern shift is on its way this week and beyond. A multi-day stretch of severe weather is expected to begin Wednesday evening and peak Thursday and Friday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. SPC has outlined Slight Risks (level 2/5) for each day Wednesday-Friday. In this video, we'll compare and contrast a few different model solutions and discuss the potential outcomes from this setup. Beyond this, ensemble models are hinting at a continuation of robust severe weather into early next week.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas3:40 Current look at the atmosphere7:35 Discussion of Wednesday's setup14:00 Discussion of Thursday's setup34:55 Discussion of Friday's setup40:58 Discussion of ensemble model output beyond Friday46:55 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - April 28, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today Convective Chronicles 2025-04-28 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A significant severe weather outbreak is on tap for today from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) across parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, where supercells posing an all-hazards risk are possible this afternoon/evening. All hazards are possible, including intense tornadoes and very large hail. Supercells are also possible in western Oklahoma and northwest Texas this evening, posing a risk for all severe hazards.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion - April 26, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Sequence Begins Tomorrow Convective Chronicles 2025-04-26 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.After another day of mesoscale activity today, a synoptically evident severe weather sequence is set to begin tomorrow (Sunday, April 27) before peaking on Monday. A potent trough and associated fast-moving jet streak will make its way into the central US, ahead of which a broad warm sector will be in place. While storm initiation is somewhat conditional tomorrow, a widespread severe weather outbreak is possible on Monday from the Great Lakes/Midwest, where a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) has been outlined, to the southern Plains. All severe hazards are possible, including strong/intense tornadoes. The threat will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas, flooding risk4:45 Quick look at today's setup6:32 Current data analysis9:10 Discussion of Sunday's setup29:25 Discussion of Monday's setup44:20 Discussion of Tuesday/Wednesday setups48:15 Convection allowing model analysis for Sunday50:02 Wrap-up
Active Severe Weather to Continue to Close Out April Convective Chronicles 2025-04-21 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.In this video, we take a look at what you can expect in terms of severe weather as we close out April and head into early May. The next few days should foster daily, mesoscale-driven severe risks across the central and southern High Plains as a persistent dryline sets up amid a low-amplitude flow regime. Beyond that, ensemble models are hinting at more synoptically evident severe weather by this weekend into early next week as troughing settles into the western US and acts upon a broad area of returning moisture. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
How to Use Radar during Storm Initiation (Storm Chaser Coaching Preview!) Convective Chronicles 2025-04-13 | Here's a full-length episode (Episode 2 of 9) from my new Radar for Storm Chasing module over on stormchasercoaching.com! In this episode, we discuss how to use radar during storm initiation and the early convective life cycle, including monitoring for different types of boundaries, as well as products and signatures that can help identify robust updrafts that may turn into severe storms/supercells.Want to learn more about radar and a myriad of other topics related to severe storms forecasting and storm chasing from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the world? Head on over to stormchasercoaching.com! Storm Chaser Coaching was created to help storm chasers of all skill levels stay safe and achieve success! There are two ways to interact with us:1) JOIN THE FREE COMMUNITYOur coaches and hundreds of members just like you are discussing everything related to storm chasing. Sign up now and make a post introducing yourself. We'd love to hear from you!Join the Community here: community.stormchasercoaching.com/register2) SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHASER ACADEMYThe Chaser Academy is our monthly subscription product where new content is released on a regular schedule. Academy members receive expert coaching via training modules, Q&A sessions, and "Chase and Explain" episodes.Use promo code TREY when you sign up and get 20% off your first month!Subscribe to the Chaser Academy here: stormchasercoaching.com/chaser-academy
The Palm Sunday 1965 Tornado Outbreak: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2025-04-11 | In-depth discussion of the infamous Palm Sunday tornado outbreak on April 11, 1965. The outbreak produced 55 tornadoes in total, 18 of which were rated F4+, a number that stands behind only April 3-4, 1974. In this video, we'll discuss the meteorology behind the Palm Sunday outbreak, including what caused the tornadic activity the day before and why the Palm Sunday event was such a prolific significant tornado producer.---------------------------------------------------------Want to learn how to forecast and chase severe storms from the best meteorologists and storm chasers in the business? Head over to stormchasercoaching.com today and sign up for our Chaser Academy. Use promo code TREY to get 20% off the first month of your subscription. ---------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles---------------------------------------------------------Chapters:0:00 Introduction3:07 Meteorological analysis of the previous day8:26 Meteorological analysis of the Palm Sunday outbreak40:31 Wrap-up---------------------------------------------------------Resources:NWS Indianapolis event page: weather.gov/ind/palmsuntorNWS Northern Indiana event page: weather.gov/iwx/1965_palmsunday_50NWS Grand Rapids event page: weather.gov/grr/1965PalmSundayTornadoNWS Chicago event page: weather.gov/lot/Palm_Sunday_OutbreakFujita et al. (1970): "PALM SUNDAY TORNADOES OF APRIL 11, 1965" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/98/1/1520-0493_1970_098_0029_pstoa_2_3_co_2.xmlBroyles et al. (2025): "The OMEGA Project" - spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf"The Mighty Whirlwind" - David WaglerTornado Archive: tornadoarchive.com/homeSPC Violent Tornado Webpage: spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/#Brian Bernard's Golden Horseshoe WX website: goldenhorseshoewx.ca/index.htmlPalm Sunday case study on Golden Horseshoe WX: goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/PalmSundayOutbreak1965/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJeOU5leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHoeMPc7Z11v25e8y0bC1iQuTORylCeT9w6sEQr9DBLJd4zk9stWys2qpjjcw_aem_dGEhey4C5IlN8pSJ0I8Ppg
Forecast Discussion - April 5, 2025 - Robust All-Hazards Risk for the Mid-South/Southeast Convective Chronicles 2025-04-05 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.UPDATE - SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) ahead of an intense bowing segment currently moving through Arkansas (as of 11:45am CDT). Greater confidence in strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds in excess of 80 mph has necessitated the upgrade.Another day of significant severe weather potential is on tap today from east Texas to western Tennessee today, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Most of the convection is expected to be messy/linear in organization, but any more discrete supercells in the open warm sector may pose a risk of strong tornadoes and very large hail. Damaging winds and tornadoes are also expected within the main line along the cold front. Excessive rainfall and catastrophic flash flooding is also expected to continue across the Mid-South today.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas, flooding risk3:53 Meteorological analysis21:30 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - April 4, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Sequence Continues Convective Chronicles 2025-04-04 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Our incredible severe weather outbreak sequence continues today across the Mid-South, as the SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) from the ArkLaTex into southern Missouri. While storm mode will have a notable impact on the intensity of the risk, the environment will be favorable for intense, long-track tornadoes in any more semi-discrete supercells. The threat persists tomorrow across the Mid-South/Southeast, where another round of significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes and intense damaging winds, is expected.Excessive rainfall and catastrophic flash flooding is also expected across the Mid-South along the slow-moving frontal zone, where multiple rounds of convection are forecast to continue to train over the same areas through the next couple days.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas, flooding risk4:38 Current data analysis15:40 Model analysis29:22 Discussion of tomorrow's setup35:11 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - April 3, 2025 - Multi-Day Significant Severe Weather Threat Continues Convective Chronicles 2025-04-03 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.On the heels of yesterday's significant severe weather outbreak from the Midwest to the Southeast, more is on the way, particularly from the Southern Plains into the Mid-South and Southeast. Today (Thursday, April 3), SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from the ArkLaTex into Tennessee, where ample convection is expected to develop near and north of a stalled frontal zone. Most storms should remain elevated, posing a large to very large hail risk, but any storms can latch onto the front or impinge upon the warm sector will pose a risk for all hazards, including strong tornadoes.Tomorrow, an Enhanced Risk has also been outlined from the ArkLaTex into southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas, and far southern Missouri. A better chance for more surface-based supercells exists here given a northward advancing, broad warm sector, and all hazards, including strong tornadoes, are once again possible.Saturday, another significant severe weather episode is expected, focused on east Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, where a Day 3 Enhanced Risk has been outlined. All hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes.Excessive rainfall and catastrophic flash flooding is also expected across the Mid-South along the slow-moving frontal zone, where multiple rounds of convection are forecast to train over the same areas through the next three days.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas, flooding risk6:00 Discussion of today's setup23:16 Discussion of Friday's setup28:39 Discussion of Saturday's setup34:49 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - April 2, 2025 - Mid-South Tornado Outbreak Possible Today Convective Chronicles 2025-04-02 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.SPC has upgraded to HIGH RISK (level 5/5) across the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys today, as their confidence in a significant tornado outbreak in this corridor has increased. In this video, we'll discuss some of the potential reasons why the risk may not materialize as expected. Still, a potent, widespread severe weather risk, including a threat for significant damaging winds, very large hail, and strong tornadoes exists from the Great Lakes and Midwest down into the Southern Plains.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas5:25 Current data analysis19:04 Model analysis36:28 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - April 1, 2025 - Potential Severe Weather Outbreak Begins Today Convective Chronicles 2025-04-01 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A widespread severe weather outbreak is possible beginning today across the Plains before shifting east into the region from the Great Lakes to the ArkLaTex tomorrow. SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across much of Kansas and Oklahoma to cover the threat of discrete supercells that may develop along a tightening dryline late this afternoon and evening. If storms can remain surface-based, all hazards will be possible, including significant tornadoes. Tomorrow's threat is also reflected in a large Enhanced Risk from the Great Lakes southwestward into Texas. Multiple rounds of storms are possible with a risk for all severe hazards, some significant. The severe threat will persist along a stalling frontal zone into Thursday and the weekend, along with a significant flash flooding risk.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas4:43 Discussion of today's setup32:09 Discussion of tomorrow's setup44:25 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 31, 2025 - Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Starting Tomorrow Convective Chronicles 2025-03-31 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Another widespread severe weather outbreak is possible beginning tomorrow (Tuesday) across the central and southern Plains before shifting into the Midwest and Mid-South Wednesday. SPC has outlined Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) for both days, with a nocturnal supercell threat expected to develop Tuesday evening. Strong tornadoes are possible across parts of Kansas and, possibly, Oklahoma and north Texas. The threat shifts east, with convection likely to intensify Wednesday morning. Multiple rounds of severe storms with all severe hazards possible, some significant.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas5:20 Current data analysis7:53 Discussion of Tuesday's setup23:40 Discussion of Wednesday's setup38:28 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 30, 2025 - Widespread Significant Severe Weather Today/Tomorrow Convective Chronicles 2025-03-30 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Widespread, significant severe weather is expected to take place across a broad swath of the eastern half of the US today and tomorrow. Today, SPC has outlined a large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from the Great Lakes to the ArkLaTex, within which multiple rounds of severe storms with all hazards are possible. A conditional risk for strong tornadoes exists, centered on the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence. The risk shifts toward the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow; an Enhanced Risk also exists from Virginia to the Gulf Coast states.On the heels of this system, another, more potent system appears to be on the way by Wednesday. A severe weather outbreak appears possible; I'll have more information on this in a later video.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas5:22 Discussion on today's setup40:30 Discussion of tomorrow's setup45:02 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 28, 2025 - Widespread, Multi-Day Severe Event Expected This Weekend Convective Chronicles 2025-03-28 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Another multi-day, potentially significant severe weather event is on tap this weekend into early next week across a broad area of the US. Starting tomorrow (Saturday, March 29), a conditional risk of supercells with all hazards, including very large hail, exists in particular from Missouri into northern Oklahoma. The event looks to peak on Sunday; SPC has outlined a large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from the Midwest into the Southeast. Multiple rounds of convection are possible, posing a risk for all hazards. The threat should shift into the Eastern Seaboard on Monday.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas4:18 Current data analysis8:10 Model analysis - Saturday26:04 Model analysis - Sunday38:49 Convection allowing model analysis - Saturday42:26 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 26, 2025 - Rare Severe Weather Risk for the Pacific Northwest Convective Chronicles 2025-03-26 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for parts of western Oregon and Washington, a rare sight for the region. As a potent closed low aloft meanders toward the region, supercells are expected to develop this afternoon, posing a risk for mainly large to very large hail. A tornado risk will also accompany any more robust supercells.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5
Forecast Discussion - March 19, 2025 - Cold Core Tornado Risk in Illinois Convective Chronicles 2025-03-19 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A classic cold core tornado setup is expected to take place in Illinois today, where the SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Storms should develop near the surface low by early afternoon, posing a risk for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A strong tornado or two is possible as the storms move east.------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles------------------------------------------------------------------------Looking for a reliable way to get up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts from me wherever you are? Check out WeatherCall NexGen. What is WeatherCall NexGen? weathercallservices.com/convective-chron-nexgenTo register: bit.ly/41Ab5N5------------------------------------------------------------------------Chapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas2:08 Meteorological analysis30:28 Wrap-up
The Tri-State Tornado: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2025-03-19 | In-depth discussion of the infamous Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925, which remains the deadliest tornado in US history. The tornado tore an apparent 217-mile-long path through Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, killing at least 695 people, injuring at least 2,000, and wiping towns from the face of the Earth. In this video, we'll attempt to reconstruct the meteorology behind such a tornadic monster, including what the background pattern looked like and how such a long-track, violent tornado was able to occur. We'll also try to piece together what the tornado may have looked like and whether or not it was truly a single, continuous tornado for its entire path.---------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles---------------------------------------------------------Chapters:0:00 Introduction0:59 Overview of the tornado4:26 Meteorological analysis12:59 Tornado's visual appearance14:59 Was it one tornado or a tornado family?17:16 Wrap-up---------------------------------------------------------Resources:Maddox et al. (2013): "Meteorological Analyses of the Tri-State Tornado Event of March 1925" - ejssm.com/ojs/index.php/site/article/view/46Johns et al. (2013): "The 1925 Tri-State Tornado Damage Path and Associated Storm System" - ejssm.org/archives/2013/vol-8-2-2013In-depth article detailing the impacts from the tornado: stormstalker.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/tri-state-tornadoBroyles et al. (2025): "The OMEGA Project" - spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdfChangnon and Semonin (1966): "A Great Tornado Disaster in Retrospect" - tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1966.9930508"The Tornado: Nature's Ultimate Windstorm" - Thomas GrazulisTornado Archive: tornadoarchive.com/homeSPC Violent Tornado Webpage: spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/#
Forecast Discussion - March 15, 2025 - Southeast Tornado Outbreak Expected Today Convective Chronicles 2025-03-15 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.The SPC has upgraded to a HIGH RISK (level 5/5) across Mississippi and Alabama today, where an outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially strong to violent, is expected. Significant damaging winds and large to very large hail are also possible.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Forecast Discussion - March 14, 2025 - Intense Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Today/Tomorrow Convective Chronicles 2025-03-14 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A significant severe weather outbreak is expected to begin today from the Midwest into the Southeast. SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for today for the threat of intense damaging winds in excess of 80 mph and strong, long-track tornadoes. The threat looks to peak across the Southeast tomorrow, where an outbreak of supercells, possibly harboring strong/violent tornadoes, is likely; SPC has also outlined a Moderate Risk for this threat, as well.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesChapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas6:59 Analysis of current data17:20 Discussion of today's setup32:03 Discussion of Saturday's setup51:03 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 12, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Likely This Weekend Convective Chronicles 2025-03-12 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A potentially significant severe weather outbreak is becoming increasingly likely late this week into the weekend. SPC has outlined Enhanced Risks (level 3/5) for Friday and Saturday across a broad swath of the US from the Midwest to the Southeast, with the severe threat continuing into Sunday across the Eastern Seaboard. The potential for multiple rounds of severe weather exists, including a risk for strongly tornadic supercells, particularly on Saturday across the Southeast. In this video, we compare and contrast data from our major models to come up with possible outcomes for this event.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesChapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas4:10 Discussion of Friday's setup27:45 Discussion of Saturday's setup44:39 Discussion of Sunday's setup45:50 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 10, 2025 - Late Week Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Convective Chronicles 2025-03-10 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A widespread, potentially significant severe weather event is on tap for Friday and Saturday (March 14-15) as a potent trough makes its way into the central US. In this video, we'll go over current ensemble model, and I'll give my initial thoughts on this setup, including what we know now and what needs to be worked out as we approach the weekend.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Forecast Discussion - March 3, 2025 - Multi-Day Significant Severe Weather Event Begins Tonight Convective Chronicles 2025-03-03 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A multi-day stretch of significant severe weather is expected to begin tonight across the southern Plains, where the SPC has upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). An MCS is expected to rapidly develop from Kansas to Texas late tonight, posing a risk for embedded tornadoes and damaging winds. The line will continue into the Mid-South and Southeast tomorrow, continuing the significant severe threat across another SPC Enhanced Risk area. The greatest threat for tornadoes, perhaps some strong, will be across central/southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama, where models are hinting at slightly higher, albeit conditional, potential for more discrete supercells. The threat continues into the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday, where all hazards may be possible.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesChapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas4:59 Current observations10:40 Model analysis34:27 Convection-allowing model analysis39:03 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - March 1, 2025 - Robust Severe Weather for the Mid-South/Southeast This Week Convective Chronicles 2025-03-01 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is expected to make a return to to the southern US on Tuesday; SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk-equivalent 30% contour centered on the southern Mississippi River area. In this video, we'll compare and contrast some of our latest model runs to come up with a range of possible outcomes for what could be a potent event. We'll also touch on tomorrow's low-end risk across the southern Plains.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesChapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas1:53 Brief discussion on tomorrow's threat4:49 Discussion of Tuesday's threat33:58 Wrap-up
My 2025 Tornado Season Forecast Convective Chronicles 2025-02-27 | Welcome to my third annual tornado season forecast! In this video, we'll attempt to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution across the United States for the upcoming 2025 tornado season (March-June). We'll use global climate teleconnections (namely, the El Niño Southern Oscillation), Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies, and drought in the elevated mixed layer source region to help us predict whether we'll see an above-average, near-normal, or below-average tornado count this spring, as well as which areas might be favored for enhanced tornado activity.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Contents0:00 Introduction2:39 El Niño Southern Oscillation11:04 Gulf sea-surface temperature anomalies12:33 Drought in the EML source region15:18 Introduction to analogs18:00 Analog: 199619:15 Analog: 200620:50 Analog: 196722:15 Analog: 198423:37 Analog: 198124:28 Analog: 198925:57 Analog: 201827:12 Discussion on the exclusion of 2011 as an analog27:59 Composite 500 mb height anomalies of analog years29:56 Climate model output, seasonal forecasts31:04 My final forecast33:47 Wrap-up--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Resources:My 2023 Tornado Season Forecast: youtube.com/watch?v=E9_gmsmkGqEMy 2024 Tornado Season Forecast: youtube.com/watch?v=NtfLy7atk_0"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winterand Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks" - Cook et al. (2017): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/56/9/jamc-d-16-0249.1.xml?tab_body=pdf"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phasesand North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above (scroll down to where it says "Supplementary data")"Is There an Optimal ENSO Pattern That Enhances Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes Conducive to Tornado Outbreaks in the United States?" - Lee et al. (2013): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/5/jcli-d-12-00128.1.xml?tab_body=pdf"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071603Tornado maps for analog years collected from tornadoarchive.com--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
The May 25-26, 2024, Tornado Outbreak: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2025-02-19 | In-depth meteorological breakdown of the tornado outbreak that occurred across Plains and Mid-South on May 25 and 26, 2024. On May 25, the SPC had outlined a level 4 out of 5 Moderate Risk, including a threat for significant, long-track tornadoes across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. However, things didn't quite go to plan until nightfall, when separate cyclic supercells produced multiple strong tornadoes, including EF3s near Valley View, TX; Claremore, OK; and Decatur, AR. On May 26, the outbreak continued, with multiple discrete supercells producing strong tornadoes from the Ozarks eastward. In this video, we take a deep dive into the meteorology behind this setup, including what issues plagued the daytime environment on the 25th, why the nighttime supercells on the 25th were able to go nuts, and how the outbreak evolved on the 26th to continue the outbreak.Thumbnail image from Andy Shriner.Huge thanks to:-Mikey Williams for providing his analysis on the southern Kansas supercell of May 25.-wxKobold (on X) for providing the storm-centered radar loops of the Valley View and Claremore/Decatur supercells.-Alex Bartholomew, Andy Shriner, Mason McCormack, Connor Stines, Joshua and Emily Leach (J&E Wx Chasers), and Drew (X: @Wx_Beans) for providing their photos and videos.Contents0:00 Introduction0:54 May 25 analysis begins2:01 Meteorological analysis - May 258:00 Discussion of left splits - May 2511:12 Southern Kansas supercell discussion - May 2525:47 Valley View, TX, supercell discussion - May 2531:16 Claremore, OK/Decatur, AR supercell discussion - May 2535:20 May 26 analysis41:23 Wrap-upBecome a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles----------------------------------------ResourcesNWS Norman event page: weather.gov/oun/events-20240525NWS Paducah event page: weather.gov/pah/May26_2024SevereNWS St. Louis event page: weather.gov/lsx/5_26_2024My May 20, 2013 breakdown: youtube.com/watch?v=N1RXY7Lf43sNixon et al. (2024): "Cell Mergers, Boundary Interactions, and Convective Systems in Cases of Significant Tornadoes and Hail" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-23-0117.1/WAF-D-23-0117.1.xml
Forecast Discussion - February 15, 2025 - Mid-South & Southeast Brace for Significant Severe Weather Convective Chronicles 2025-02-15 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is expected today across parts of the Mid-South and Southeast, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Adequate instability and strong low-level/deep-layer shear will overspread a broad warm sector, setting the stage for severe storms mostly in the form of a squall line along a surging cold front. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes, some of which may be strong, are possible with the QLCS. The threat for prefrontal supercells is low given a lack of forcing over the warm sector for much of the day; this could increase tonight across southern portions of the risk area. Any discrete supercells that are able to develop and sustain before the QLCS marches in will pose a risk for strong tornadoes and damaging winds.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesChapters0:00 Introduction, risk areas2:54 Observed data analysis17:15 Model analysis31:29 Convection allowing model (CAM) analysis36:45 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - February 13, 2025 - Active Severe Weather Stretch Continues This Weekend Convective Chronicles 2025-02-13 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is, once again, expected Saturday into Sunday across the Gulf Coast states, where the SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). In this video, we compare and contrast today's model runs and discuss some of the caveats accompanying this setup. Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Forecast Discussion - February 12, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather to Impact Southeast Today Convective Chronicles 2025-02-12 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is expected today across the Gulf Coast states, where the SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Storms are expected to develop late this morning along the cold front with an additional round of open warm sector supercells this afternoon. The latter will pose the greatest risk for tornadoes, perhaps some strong, particularly across southern Mississippi and Alabama. The line will also pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesContents0:00 Introduction, risk areas1:52 Current state of the atmosphere18:35 Model analysis33:37 Convection allowing model (CAM) analysis40:27 Wrap-up
Breaking Down the Oklahoma Storm Chasing Bill...Does It Ban Chasing? Convective Chronicles 2025-02-05 | In recent days, the Oklahoma legislature has brought forth a bill that would attempt to regulate storm chasing in Oklahoma. There has been a lot of confusion within the storm chasing community on what this bill entails, who it targets, and whether or not it will ban recreational storm chasing in Oklahoma. In this video, we go through the entire bill page by page to the best of my understanding to get to the bottom of its purpose and clear up the confusion.Link to the bill: legiscan.com/OK/text/HB2426/2025Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles
Meteorological Breakdown: The Duke, OK, Tornado - May 23, 2024 Convective Chronicles 2025-01-24 | In-depth meteorological breakdown of the stunning, long-lived, and intense tornado that occurred near Eldorado and Duke, OK, on May 23, 2024. In this video, we'll take a deep dive into the meteorology behind the Duke tornado, including how such an intense tornado occurred in an environment that appeared to be unfavorable for tornadic activity, let alone significant tornadic activity. We'll also analyze some of the high-resolution, mobile Doppler radar data of the Duke tornado that was collected.Thanks to Celton Henderson for providing some of his footage for this video.----------------------------------------Contents0:00 Introduction2:00 Meteorological analysis7:25 Radar breakdown begins9:14 Possible role of a boundary11:10 Proximity sounding analysis14:33 Deviant tornado motion15:16 High-resolution, mobile radar data analysis18:06 Wrap-up----------------------------------------Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles----------------------------------------ResourcesNWS Norman event page: weather.gov/oun/events-20240523Snyder et al. (2013): "Observations of Polarimetric Signatures in Supercells by an X-Band Mobile Doppler Radar" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/1/mwr-d-12-00068.1.xml?tab_body=pdfGriffin et al. (2018): "In Situ and Radar Observations of the Low Reflectivity Ribbon in Supercells during VORTEX2" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/146/1/mwr-d-17-0201.1.xml?tab_body=pdfNixon and Allen (2021): "Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/36/1/WAF-D-20-0056.1.xml?tab_body=pdfKurdzo et al. (2015): "High-Temporal Resolution Polarimetric X-Band Doppler Radar Observations of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, Tornado" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/7/mwr-d-14-00357.1.pdf
The Devastating Los Angeles Wildfires Explained Convective Chronicles 2025-01-08 | Meteorological breakdown of the deadly wildfires that continue to ravage portions of the Los Angeles, CA, metro area. We'll discuss the geographical and meteorological factors that come together to create wildfire events like this in the LA area and show how the pattern has evolved over the last day to fuel these devastating fires.Thumbnail image by the Associated Press via Sky News.Contents0:00 Introduction2:52 Explanation of Santa Ana winds13:41 Drought conditions14:26 Meteorological data analysis for the LA event18:50 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - January 5, 2025 - Significant Severe Weather Returns to the Southeast Convective Chronicles 2025-01-05 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Significant severe weather is expected across the Southeast today, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). An intense QLCS will march east through parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, posing a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes. Confluence bands in the open warm sector may yield discrete supercells ahead of the QLCS, which would have the greatest risk of producing tornadoes, some strong, if they can mature before the QLCS overtakes them.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesContents0:00 Introduction, risk areas2:01 Observed data analysis16:22 Model analysis28:05 Convection-allowing model analysis30:50 Wrap-up
Introducing Storm Chaser Coaching, the worlds first training site for storm chasing Convective Chronicles 2025-01-02 | Introducing Storm Chaser Coaching, a first-of-its-kind training site for those interested in learning the nitty gritty of severe storms meteorology and storm chasing strategy. If you're looking to get into storm chasing or if you're a veteran chaser looking to leave the busts behind and skyrocket your tornado count, Storm Chaser Coaching will be for you.Click on the link below to become a founding member of Storm Chaser Coaching. Act now, as this offer lasts for seven days! REGISTRATION LINK: hub-zkxo31g6xq.membership.io/register
The December 28, 2024, Southeast Tornado Outbreak: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2024-12-30 | Meteorological breakdown of the Moderate Risk tornado outbreak across the Southeast back on Saturday (December 28, 2024). In this video, we'll discuss the meteorology behind this event, including the factors that led to the somewhat unexpected, long-track, significant tornadic supercell in southeast Texas, as well as some of the potential factors that somewhat mitigated the long-track tornado risk across Louisiana and Mississippi.Thumbnail image from Christy Martin. Thanks so much to @wxKobold on Twitter for providing the storm-centric radar loop of the Port Arthur tornadic supercell.Contents0:00 Introduction4:03 Background meteorology22:45 SE Texas long-track tornadic supercell breakdown39:02 Potential mitigating factors for Louisiana/Mississippi49:32 Wrap-upBecome a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles----------------------------------------ResourcesCameron Nixon paper on storm interactions: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-23-0117.1/WAF-D-23-0117.1.xml
Forecast Discussion - December 28, 2024 - Tornado Outbreak Takes Aim at the Southeast Convective Chronicles 2024-12-28 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.Update on the forecast for today's potentially significant severe weather outbreak regional severe weather outbreak across the Southeast, where SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5). Ingredients are coming together for widespread significant severe weather in multiple rounds from Texas eastward today and tonight. Several strong tornadoes are possible across this corridor, both in an intense QLCS that is expected to develop and perhaps several bands of open warm sector supercells. The threat continues into tomorrow, as well.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesContents0:00 Introduction, risk areas3:34 Current watches, radar9:11 Observed data analysis21:10 Model analysis35:29 Convection-allowing model analysis44:26 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - December 27, 2024 - Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Tomorrow Convective Chronicles 2024-12-27 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.A regional severe weather outbreak is expected tomorrow (Saturday, December 28) across the Gulf Coast states, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). A potent shortwave trough and surface low will act upon a broad warm sector, within which multiple rounds of storms are forecast, beginning early Saturday morning. Weak capping and strong forcing will likely lead to widespread convective coverage, meaning more a messy storm mode, but all severe hazards are still possible, including the threat for tornadoes, some strong, especially in more discrete supercells. The threat will persist into the eastern US on Sunday.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesContents0:00 Introduction, risk areas2:36 Current state of the atmosphere6:59 Model analysis38:11 Brief discussion on Sunday's threat39:58 Quick note on Nadocast42:14 Wrap-up
Forecast Discussion - December 26, 2024 - Severe Weather Returns to the Southern US Convective Chronicles 2024-12-26 | For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.***This was recorded before the SPC upgraded to Enhanced Risk across southeast Texas, but the forecast logic I discuss in the video remains valid.***Severe weather returns to the forecast today for parts of east Texas, western Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) where the greatest risk for tornadoes, some strong, exists, surrounded by a large Slight Risk (level 2/5). Ahead of a compact but potent trough, rich moisture will make its way northward into these areas, setting the stage for thunderstorm development. Several factors look to preclude a more intense event, but ample severe storms with all hazards, including tornadoes, are possible this afternoon into evening. The threat will persist into the morning tomorrow.We'll also briefly discuss our next robust severe threat, set to take place on Saturday in and around the Gulf Coast States. SPC has outline a Slight Risk for this event, as well, and it could be more potent than today's event.Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechroniclesContents0:00 Introduction, risk areas3:51 Observed data analysis21:26 Model analysis34:35 Convection-allowing model analysis38:39 Brief discussion of Saturday's setup45:13 Wrap-up
The May 21, 2024, Iowa Tornado Outbreak: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2024-12-23 | In-depth meteorological breakdown of the severe weather outbreak centered on southwest Iowa on May 21, 2024, which included the Carbon, IA EF3 and Greenfield, IA EF4. Fast-moving storms, including supercells, developed in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the early afternoon on May 21, eventually moving east into an environment favorable for significant severe weather. In this video, we'll take a deep dive into the background meteorology that fueled this event before discussing the incredibly unique convective evolution that took place leading up to and during the Greenfield EF4. We’ll also analyze some high-resolution, mobile radar data of the Greenfield tornado, which packed winds of over 300 mph.***Sorry for the audio issue from 16:20-16:41. Here's what I'm supposed to be saying during that time: "To start the day at 12z, we see a profile comprised of modest instability and steep lapse rates elevated atop fairly limited low-level thermodynamics. Low-level shear was already strong, with ample hodograph curvature and effective storm-relative helicity nearing 250 m2/s2, in part due to easterly surface winds near or perhaps just north of the synoptic warm front."----------------------------------------Thumbnail image from Isaac Polanski (via NWS Des Moines) and Chris Riske. Huge thank you to Celton Henderson and Chris Riske for providing their footage of the Carbon and Greenfield tornadoes for use in this video.----------------------------------------Contents0:00 Introduction1:44 Meteorological analysis begins10:10 Radar overview begins11:04 Unique convective evolution16:02 RAP proximity sounding analysis18:13 Other notable tornadoes19:36 Unusual right turn before dissipation21:14 DOW data analysis23:54 Wrap-upBecome a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles----------------------------------------ResourcesNWS Des Moines event page: weather.gov/dmx/2024-May-21-Iowa-TornadoesWindsFloodingNWS Quad Cities event page: weather.gov/dvn/summary_05212024NWS LaCrosse event page: weather.gov/arx/may2124Greenfield tornado damage analysis by June First's Ethan Moriarty: youtube.com/watch?v=sPUOFn8IYP8Statement on DOW data analysis from University of Illinois: web.archive.org/web/20240624040232/http://publish.illinois.edu/dowfacility-upgrade/files/2024/06/best-greenfield-windspeed-note-2024-0623bp2.pdfNixon and Allen (2021): "Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/36/1/WAF-D-20-0056.1.xmlWakimoto and Wilson (1989): "Non-supercell Tornadoes" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/117/6/1520-0493_1989_117_1113_nst_2_0_co_2.xmlKurdzo et al. (2015): "High-Temporal Resolution Polarimetric X-Band Doppler Radar Observations of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, Tornado" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/7/mwr-d-14-00357.1.xml
The May 6, 2024, Oklahoma High Risk: A Meteorological Breakdown Convective Chronicles 2024-12-02 | In-depth meteorological breakdown of the severe weather outbreak that occurred across the Plains, particularly Oklahoma, on May 6, 2024. SPC had outlined a level 5 of 5 High Risk for severe weather on May 6 with the expectation that discrete supercells would be able to produce several long-track, strong to violent tornadoes. However, things did not go as planned, as the daytime round of supercells failed to produce significant tornadoes and eventually grew upscale into a squall line. But, all it took was one storm...a supercell fired ahead of the QLCS and produced the beastly Barnsdall, OK, EF4 after dark. In this video, we'll take a deep dive into the meteorology behind this event, focusing on some of the possible reasons why the daytime activity tended to underperform. After that, we'll discuss how the Barnsdall supercell and tornado developed, as well as some of the unique features they possessed.Thumbnail image from Teddy Galligher (X: @GalligherTeddy). Thanks to James Burch for providing his footage of the Okeene EF1.Contents0:00 Introduction1:46 Meteorological analysis begins4:23 Unusual surface low track8:59 Dual dryline structure14:14 Radar overview15:27 Possible failure modes for daytime convection24:31 Why the Okeene supercell still produced multiple tornadoes25:49 Barnsdall supercell/tornado analysis32:16 Wrap-upBecome a Patreon member today to support the channel: patreon.com/convectivechroniclesFacebook: facebook.com/ConvectiveChroniclesX: twitter.com/ConvChroniclesInstagram: instagram.com/convectivechronicles----------------------------------------ResourcesNWS Norman event page: weather.gov/oun/events-20240506Broyles et al. (2018): "Location and Frequency of Surface Lows and Lower-Tropospheric Jets for U.S. Violent Tornadoes" - spc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/violjets.pdfThompson and Edwards (2000): "An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/15/6/1520-0434_2000_015_0682_aooeca_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdfNixon et al. (2024): "Cell Mergers, Boundary Interactions, and Convective Systems in Cases of Significant Tornadoes and Hail" - journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-23-0117.1/WAF-D-23-0117.1.xmlCameron Nixon's blog article on storm interactions: cameronjnixon.wordpress.com/research/storm-interactions
