Uploaded May 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
New Orlean’s is Sinking. Very very Quickly. Could be BAD…
Hello Everybody,
I chat about a recent peer reviewed scientific paper on how New Orleans and the surrounding region is sinking. Namely land subsidence, wetland erosion, massive hurricanes, and rising sea levels are all combining to have scientists gravely warning that the time to start evacuating the regions is now, not in a decade or several decades, but now.
I also chat about a second paper published around a month ago about how our existing models on sea level rise are severely underestimating the reality, especially in southern hemisphere regions.
Get out now and buy those hip waders while you can...
References and Links:
Guardian article:
Title: ‘Point of no return’: New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level, study finds:
Ongoing sea level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, a new study concluded.
By Oliver Milman
theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/04/new-orleans-sea-levels-relocation-climate-crisis?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1
Peer-reviewed paper in Nature Sustainability:
Climate-driven depopulation and adaptation realities in America’s coastal ground zero
Abstract
With global temperatures poised to exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold—a level that triggered substantial ice-sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial—low-elevation coastal zones face sea-level commitments far beyond current planning horizons. With this geological frame of reference, we examine the impact of sea-level rise on what may be the most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world using prehistoric and contemporary patterns of human mobility. We highlight the positive aspects of the recently commenced out-migration in this region and argue that the fate of communities landwards of this coastal zone will be decided in the next few decades.
Link: nature.com/articles/s41893-026-01820-z.epdf?sharing_token=zy0HT0qQJgjxZdtozPD65tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MlKJdRcTWB_eBmhQntD4aKg460oCdZdOh3l4vKQm2tKuPh7ec8sehTAOxp3V_JugA6DOiC76Nglo18b1KV5WL293FxzC9RfjPyPQpjeXXN01wKpjz4DD6-YlQKkL44G_eNpQqUBN2RqknKhosbBZRN8slB-ClgcIYOI2kYgLOW0BeIRzcjX-V69ZmoECqBKBXCKFqM-npZj4Vcs7NTFH91gjLmmHSa-Rf-TWUdRbkVAlet91wS0vwA8K6xUyL-9an4oBRjUbrQGFlEM5NbT7ZDhyTKpZzF-1PUqTVuFjyShA5cCo7v9BWcAQQQ994LK_A%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com
Guardian article:
Title: Global sea levels have been underestimated due to poor modelling, research suggests
Analysis shows average levels are 30cm higher than thought, and up to 150cm in south-east Asia and Indo-Pacific
theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/04/global-sea-levels-underestimated-poor-modelling-research
Peer-reviewed science paper in Nature:
Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments
Link: nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1
Abstract
The impacts of sea-level rise and other hazards on the coasts of the world are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation1. Correct integration of both aspects is fundamental for reliable sea-level rise and coastal hazard impact assessments2,3, but is often not carefully considered or properly performed. Here we show that more than 99% of the evaluated impact assessments handled sea-level and land elevation data inadequately, thereby misjudging sea level relative to coastal elevation. Based on our literature evaluation, 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27 m [0.76 m] and 0.24 m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids). Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1 m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific. Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1 m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level. Our results highlight the need for re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments and improvement of research community standards, with possible implications for policymakers, climate finance and coastal adaptation.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
New Orlean’s is Sinking. Very very Quickly. Could be BAD…
Hello Everybody,
I chat about a recent peer reviewed scientific paper on how New Orleans and the surrounding region is sinking. Namely land subsidence, wetland erosion, massive hurricanes, and rising sea levels are all combining to have scientists gravely warning that the time to start evacuating the regions is now, not in a decade or several decades, but now.
I also chat about a second paper published around a month ago about how our existing models on sea level rise are severely underestimating the reality, especially in southern hemisphere regions.
Get out now and buy those hip waders while you can...
References and Links:
Guardian article:
Title: ‘Point of no return’: New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level, study finds:
Ongoing sea level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, a new study concluded.
By Oliver Milman
theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/04/new-orleans-sea-levels-relocation-climate-crisis?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1
Peer-reviewed paper in Nature Sustainability:
Climate-driven depopulation and adaptation realities in America’s coastal ground zero
Abstract
With global temperatures poised to exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold—a level that triggered substantial ice-sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial—low-elevation coastal zones face sea-level commitments far beyond current planning horizons. With this geological frame of reference, we examine the impact of sea-level rise on what may be the most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world using prehistoric and contemporary patterns of human mobility. We highlight the positive aspects of the recently commenced out-migration in this region and argue that the fate of communities landwards of this coastal zone will be decided in the next few decades.
Link: nature.com/articles/s41893-026-01820-z.epdf?sharing_token=zy0HT0qQJgjxZdtozPD65tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MlKJdRcTWB_eBmhQntD4aKg460oCdZdOh3l4vKQm2tKuPh7ec8sehTAOxp3V_JugA6DOiC76Nglo18b1KV5WL293FxzC9RfjPyPQpjeXXN01wKpjz4DD6-YlQKkL44G_eNpQqUBN2RqknKhosbBZRN8slB-ClgcIYOI2kYgLOW0BeIRzcjX-V69ZmoECqBKBXCKFqM-npZj4Vcs7NTFH91gjLmmHSa-Rf-TWUdRbkVAlet91wS0vwA8K6xUyL-9an4oBRjUbrQGFlEM5NbT7ZDhyTKpZzF-1PUqTVuFjyShA5cCo7v9BWcAQQQ994LK_A%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com
Guardian article:
Title: Global sea levels have been underestimated due to poor modelling, research suggests
Analysis shows average levels are 30cm higher than thought, and up to 150cm in south-east Asia and Indo-Pacific
theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/04/global-sea-levels-underestimated-poor-modelling-research
Peer-reviewed science paper in Nature:
Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments
Link: nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1
Abstract
The impacts of sea-level rise and other hazards on the coasts of the world are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation1. Correct integration of both aspects is fundamental for reliable sea-level rise and coastal hazard impact assessments2,3, but is often not carefully considered or properly performed. Here we show that more than 99% of the evaluated impact assessments handled sea-level and land elevation data inadequately, thereby misjudging sea level relative to coastal elevation. Based on our literature evaluation, 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27 m [0.76 m] and 0.24 m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids). Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1 m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific. Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1 m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level. Our results highlight the need for re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments and improvement of research community standards, with possible implications for policymakers, climate finance and coastal adaptation.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
GoFundMe: gofundme.com/f/help-paul-continue-his-climate-emergency-research
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
