Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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Lumber prices fell about 13% in two weeks, but the slide was driven by commodity funds flipping net short, not by any change in physical demand.

Alex Mead, Risk Manager in StoneX's Forestry Group, breaks down why lumber futures sold off while the physical market held firm and what commodity fund positioning is doing to the market.

Commodity funds are the main force behind lumber's volatility, set against the expired Softwood Lumber Agreement, the anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian shipments and Section 232 tariffs. Flat housing starts and elevated mortgage rates round out the picture, holding demand range-bound even as Canadian supply keeps shrinking.

0:00 Lumber Snaps 13% in Two Weeks
0:31 How Funds Took Over Lumber
1:38 Paper Drops, Physical Holds
2:50 Canada Keeps Cutting Supply
3:56 Mortgage Rates Freeze Demand

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