Bitcoin: The Unified Standard Model DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-25 | PowerLaw + Liquidity Model + Halving + S Curve adoption
The last Bull Run that matters DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-10-13 | For many of us who have been in the game a while, this is the end game
The Uptober Phoenix DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-10-11 | Uptober looked liked RektTober, but the Phoenix is rising from the ashes.It looks like we might hit 70k this month after all
The Next Cycle How long, how high DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-10-07 | We look at the case for a super-cycle, and we try and estimate how high we go, and the best way to play it.
A fresh look at Power Law where are we? DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-10-06 | It's good to revisit the data and see where we are.
The Next 90 days DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-10-02 | Uptober still in play. The big move after the Election
The 10 Reasons why you should be Bitcoin Only. DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-28 | 1. Over 4 years or more, all Altcoins go to zero versus Bitcoin. ETH sounded cool in 2017. It's much lower versus Bitcoin today. So did LiteCoin, EOS and every other coin launched before 2020. 2. Surviving bear markets requires conviction. If market turns negative, you will sell your AltCoin. And this can happen anytime. Develop diamond hands with Bitcoin. You will need them.3. Altcoins become obsolete with time. Remember AOL? Myspace? You don't want to fight technological progress. With Bitcoin you don't have to. It was perfect money when it came out, and its perfect today.4. Studying Altcoins is a full time job. There are hundreds of new Altcoins being minted every day. You don't have time to study all of them. And you don't need to. Save yourself the effort and stick Bitcoin Only.5. Most Altcoins are outright scams. Remember "Safe Moon Coin" ? "Bitconnect"? "Celsius token"?6. The SEC could declare your altcoin a security. This could cause it to trade lower, or stop trading altogether. Do you want to take that risk?7. Altcoins are often ponzis. They sound great initially, but they require new participants in order to function. Once the new blood dries up, the ponzi collapses.8. Altcoins are generally deliberately over-complicated. There are tokens for the team, complex staking schemes, airdrops, rewards for doing XYZ. Simplify your life with Bitcoin.9. 99% of Altcoins have no cap. The number of tokens can go up forever. Unlike Bitcoin. Stop the inflationary madness.10. Altcoins are embarassing. You are grown man or woman. Do you really have nothing better to do with your life than promote "smoking chicken coin"?
Quantile Regression Channels on Power Law DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-28 | Plan C -- created this graph.Also the conference bitcoinfirst2024.comThanks, and please subscrive
Discussion with Michael Howell, founder of the Cross Border Capital group DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-25 | Liquidity Cycles, Power Laws and Bitcoin, Generally
IBIT Options Approved. My 10 cents. DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-21 | Fred Krueger@dotkruegerA lot has been written over the last 12 hours about IBIT options . Let me add my 10 cents.1. These will likely be VERY popularThe one thing we know about from BitMex, FTX and then Binance, is that people love leverage. The reason Arthur Hayes is worth so much is not his crypto-clairvoyance, as is his invention of the Bitcoin "Perpetual", which allowed "degens" to make speculative leveraged bets.Options on IBIT are better, for the most part, than Perps. They can't be manipulated by BitMex, for example, to wick up or down and cause artificial "liquidations" because, in Hayes words, "Daddy needs a new Ferrari". They are regulated, and there is a separation between the casino and the option vendor -- unlike BitMex which played both roles.FTX grew overnight to fill BitMex's shoes. It became much, much bigger. Then Binance copied and pasted, and Binance BTC (and later ETH etc..) perps exploded there.Without even getting into BTC Futures, let's just stop here and hold on to this idea that these options are likely to be massively popular.2. Long IBIT call options allow people to capture the upside of Bitcoin with limited downside.I know we have been in a sideways market for 6 months, but at some point we will break out. The power law suggests Bitcoin will do a 6-8x or more in the next 4 years (one standard deviation up from 200K trendline). You can play this by allocating a few percentage points of your overall capital into longer dated calls. This is a very efficient way to add some "alpha" to your portfolio without embracing full Bitcoin maximalism. I think for more traditional players, it will be an attractive play.3. Selling IBIT call options will be a fantastic way to generate yield. For many all-in-maxis, the idea of "living off yield" is attractive. By moving part of their stack to IBIT, they can now do this. Just sell out of the money call options, harvest the premium, and in the case of a massive rally, accept the fact they "chose rich".New buyers will also love this "yield" option. People like Raoul Pal have been seduced by ETH's staking yield. This is better. Both sides of the call options market will find ready takers.4. Put buying will be attractive as we scale new heights.Bitcoin will eventually go up, a lot. And instead of liquidating at the end of a perceived "cycle", people may decide to get "protection" by buying puts. Others, suffering FOMO, may use this put selling for targeted buying.Overall, if i could summarize, I think these options are going to become quickly indispensable. They will supplant, to some extent perps. Unlike derebit and other exchanges, they will be fully open to US citizens. It's going to be wild.
The world post rate cut DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-19 | If Trump wins (which I personally put at 55% probability), I think there will be a Bitcoin reserve, a repeal of chokepoint 2.0, and very quickly rates at 2%. The combination of these things should push BTC to 300K+ by end of next year. So 5x.If Kamala wins (45%), i still think we get rates at 2.80% by year end (2025), relief from the election uncertainty and 180K by Dec 2025. So 3x.Either way, the next 12 months should be pretty awesome.
The Great Interest Rate SuperCycle. DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-13 | The only thing that matters is the Fed.The rest is conversation.
Bitcoin vs AI, Kamala vs Trump DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-10 | Thoughts from Day 2 of All In Summit
Bitcoin vs AI, Kamala vs Trump DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-10 | Thoughts from Day 2 of All In Summit
The I am too late to Bitcoin Fallacy DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-09 | Bitcoin has gone from 10 cents to 70,000 over the last 15 years.Along the way, at $100, $1000, $10,000 and today at $56,000 smart people think they can't buy because they are too late.
Saylor vs Power Law The BTC Braintrust dives in DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-09-05 | Our experts take apart the Saylor Model versus the power law in this in depth statistical analysis.
Positioning: BTC, ETH, SOL DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-31 | "Positioning" by Al Ries and Jack Trout.Both of the authors passed recently, but this book can teach you a lot about crypto-currencies.1. The first person to capture a category keeps it forever. Ketchup - Heinz, Rental Cars - Hertz, Digital Sound Money -- Bitcoin.2. The second person is forgotten. LiteCoin.3. In order to compete, you must create a new category: Smart contracts -- Ethereum.4. Trying to reposition directly against the leader fails: Avis -- Better than Hertz, Ethereum -- Ultra Sound Money.5. If you are #2, accept it. "Avis -- We're Number 2, But We Try Harder". Or find a clear differentiator "Most Russian Vodkas are made in New Jersey. Stolychnia is different. It's made in St Petersburg, Russia. Dogecoin -- We're literally a Joke.6. Number One gets 60% of the Market. Number two gets at most 30%. Number three 10%. Coke, Pepsi, RC Cola. BTC, ETH, SOL. There is no real room beyond three.
Expansion of the War on Crypto DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-28 | Yesterday: Trump launches NFT cards.Today: Gensler sues Open Sea, declares NFTs securities.
Printing the Big Bitcoin Book DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-27 | Live from Typecraft! First run of the book on the press.
Winner Takes it All. Bitcoin. DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-27 | What's the second largest search engine?What's the best alternative to Amazon?How's the second largest AI chip company doing?In Tech, it's usually winner takes all.Bet on Bitcoin.
Fed Pivot DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-23 | The fed pivoted its policy for the first time since October 2021.Interest rates headed down.The bull market has begun.
Bitcoin Brain Trust Episode 1 DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-21 | - @Giovann35084111 will show the liquidity model is catching up with real price and what kind of returns per day to expect for the next bull@sminston_with will show an updated decay channel oscillator chart@Sina_21st will focus on quantile regression-@1basemoney will show how one chart of Bitcoin’s compound returns looking back in time-@apsk32 will show new research on incorporating inflation and bitcoin's changing supply
Gold Smells Inflation DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-17 | Gold has broken out to new highsIt smells inflation.Bitcoin is next.
Money Printing - the last 100 years DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-10 | A history of what went wrong with fiat.
The Power Law Debate DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-09 | Giovanni. the inventor of the Bitcoin Power Law will debate British Hodl
The 10 days that define Bitcoin DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-08 | Sponsored by Shirt Tail FarmsDon't sell your BitcoinTrading makes no senseSpending is OK.
Morgan Stanley ETF approval with Andrew Parish (AP_Abacus) DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-06 | - timeline: tomorrow!- why it's significant- what it means for UBS and Wells Fargo- democratization from UHNW to HNW and Affluent segments(audio bad for first 2 min, but it gets better!)
2024 vs 2008 DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-03 | The stock market is down 1200 points in 2 days.Could we be entering a period such as Aug 2008?We look at FedFunds, the election cycle.
Thomas, Gary, Fred and others free-for all DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-02 | Gary Cardone and others join for a video space
Deep dive with Charlie Morris DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-08-02 | Gold + Bitcoin30 yr+ London Trader discusses the merits of both"I got bitcoin when i realized you could'nt just copy paste it"
Tradfi Bitcoin Lending with Caitlin and Andrew DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-31 | Episode with Caitlin Long (Custodia), Andrew (AP_Abacus) and Fred on Bitcoin Lending in a Tradfi world.
The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-29 | Game theory behind the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.How good is your Chinese?Do you still want a country in 20 years?
There is no Second Best DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-25 | A look at the ETH ETFIs ETH the "App Store" for Crypto?
Gold beats Stocks, and Bitcoin Beats Everything DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-24 | We analyze Gold v Stocks last 24 yearsSponsored by shirttailcreekfarm.comUse the code KRUEGER for 10$ off your steak order.
The 5 top reasons for being bullish over the next 12 months DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-20 | (and none of them involve the Power Law).brought to you by shirttailcreekfarm.comUse the code KRUEGER for $10 off orders of $100 or more.
Will Hyperbitcoinization be violent? DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-19 | Sponsored by shirttailcreekfarm.comUse the code KRUEGER for 10$ off your steak order.Will hyperbitcoinization be simple like the transition of horses to cars?Or will it be like Weimar Germany from 1922 to 1924 that led to WW2. ?We discuss as well as Bitcoin Nashville.
Why advisors arent biting...yet DotKruegers YouTube channel 2024-07-16 | The money managers and advisors are playing it safe.They are hugely incentivized not to take too many risks.At most we can expect a 5% take into this new asset class...For now...
