Cheap Oil, Ukraine War, and More Surprising Insights on Why the US Economy is Doing Great Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2026-09-23 | Cheap Oil, Ukraine War, and More Surprising Insights on Why the US Economy is Doing Great
Manufacturings Future, The Electric Tech Stack, and Automation Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-10-08 | In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102–FOLLOW on X:twitter.com/eriktorenbergtwitter.com/Noahpinion–TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Introduction01:46 Industrial policy in Canada vs. the U.S.03:20 Defense, manufacturing, and the electric tech stack07:45 Automation, batteries, and the future of manufacturing jobs10:10 The decline of manual labor and rise of engineering roles12:00 Why manufacturing is crucial for exports, especially for small countries13:20 U.S. manufacturing boom: what it would take18:20 Export promotion and economic cycles20:00 Booms, busts, and over-financing in tech and industry22:10 U.S. vs. China: lawyers vs. engineers, redistribution vs. growth25:45 Leadership, historical parallels, and the role of government28:00 China’s industrial policy, overproduction, and “involution”32:00 Over-competition in China and the limits of export-driven growth34:00 Winner-take-all in software vs. over-competition in physical industries36:00 Political violence, cancel culture, and the chilling effect on public speech40:00 Social media, polarization, and the decline of grassroots cancel culture–Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Who Profits from AI? Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-08-27 | In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy. Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcashNotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102-AI Bubble Prediction**: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term-Employment Evolution, Not Elimination**: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers-Data Center Financing Risks**: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle-Bond Market Shift**: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing-Multiple Winners in AI**: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats-Venture Capital's AI Approach**: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categoriesQuotes:"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik TorenbergLINKS:The a16z podcast: open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: noahpinion.substack.comErik Torenberg's Substack: eriktorenberg.substack.com-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia-TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Impact of AI on jobs and economy(01:12) AI and job market dynamics(02:27) AI's influence on various industries(03:25) AI and employment Trends(04:50) Automation and outsourcing(06:44) Self-driving vehicles and job implications(07:59) AI's role in banking and other sectors(09:28) Sponsors: Zcash | Notion(10:55) Economic impact of AI sector crash(12:36) Profitability in the AI industry(17:32) Consumer vs. Business AI applications(22:16) AI's effect on personal relationships(26:42) Cultural impact of AI and technology(27:33) AI competition and market dynamics(29:48) Role of human capital in tech(32:06) Future of AI engineering(34:08) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(36:36) Economic risks of data centers(39:37) Historical patterns of capital expenditure(41:45) Role of finance in economic crashes(50:53) AI financing and venture capital(53:39) Wrap(53:55) Disclosure(54:53) Outro
AGI Thought Experiment with Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg | From the a16z Podcast Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-08-15 | In this episode from the @a16z podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy. Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcashNotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102-Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"-Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do-Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination-AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage-AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models-Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leadersQuotes:"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah SmithLINKS:The a16z podcast: open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: noahpinion.substack.com/Dwarkesh podcast: dwarkesh.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia-TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:28) Defining General Intelligence (GI)(00:51) Capabilities and limitations of AI(02:28) Human vs. AI: A comparative analysis(05:04) Economic implications of AI(10:33) Future of AI and human labor(14:41) AI's role in economic growth(17:56) Potential societal changes with AI(20:24) Sponsors: Zcash | Notion(21:51) Post-labor economy(33:35) Concept of Sovereign wealth funds(36:33) The Marc Andreessen Example(37:31) Economic implications of AI(39:43) Redistribution and UBI(41:06) Future of AI and society(41:44) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(44:12) UBI in a tech future(45:06) Role of technology in human evolution(49:24) AI's potential and predictions(01:05:53) US-China AI competition(01:13:17) Wrap(01:13:42) Disclosure(01:14:43) Outro
Making Sense of Milei, AI & Employment, and Americas Future Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-07-31 | In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades.–SPONSORS:CartaCarta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at https://z.carta.com/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at shopify.com/momentofzenFound Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102- Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare state- Development Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic development- The Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populations- Education and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measures- AI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human laborQuotes:"If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith"Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith"We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah SmithLINKS:Noahpinion newsletter: noahpinion.substack.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia-TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:26) Argentina's economic challenges and Milei's policies(02:21) Fiscal austerity and its impacts(03:59) Industrial policy and economic growth(06:14) US economic conditions and inequality(12:08) Sponsors: Carta | Netsuite(14:42) Understanding moral hazard in economics(18:25) Role of the IMF in global economics(21:29) Economic development in Vietnam and Bangladesh(27:58) Japan's FDI challenge(29:12) Impact of tariffs on inflation(33:07) Sponsors: Found | Shopify(36:26) Powell's legacy and financial crises(40:24) AI's impact on employment(44:37) Micro vs. Macro economics(47:24) Crime rates and policing strategies(49:44) Fertility rates and women's education(53:33) Wrap
Sam DAmico and Noah Smith | How China Masters Manufacturing (And How America Can Catch Up) Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-07-22 | This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at shopify.com/momentofzen.AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@sdamico@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ impulselabs.com–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:06) Electric Tech Stack(04:45) Challenges in American manufacturing(06:59) Iterative design and prototyping(11:29) New Tech Stack(14:12) Sponsors: Shopify | Netsuites(17:36) Adapting to the Electric Tech Stack(29:27) Goblin analogy and barriers to innovation(31:00) Elon Musk's tent solution for Tesla(33:22) Sponsor: Adquick(35:38) Creating special economic zones in the US(40:21) Future industries and technologies(42:28) Impulse's role in the electric ecosystem(50:07) Complexity of supply chains(55:14) Wrap
The 2nd China Shock: Why Chinese Companies Are Making Zero Profit Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-07-15 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze recent global events—from a political shift in New York to the Israel-Iran conflict—while exploring U.S.-China economic dynamics, evolving industrial policies, and the risk of a recession. The conversation also touches on historical economic shifts, tariffs, and manufacturing trends.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at shopify.com/momentofzen.AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitabilityNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:21) Disclosure(01:26) Catch-up and recent events(01:45) Discussion on New York's political landscape(04:19) Middle East tensions and economic impacts(07:47) Recession concerns and economic policies(13:14) Sponsors: Shopify | Netsuites(15:48) Industrial policies and manufacturing(26:16) China's industrial overproduction(27:19) Global impact of China's excess production(29:04) China's industrial policy and global competition(33:27) Sponsor: Adquick(34:21) China's diplomatic missteps(40:28) China's economic challenges and future outlook(49:00) Wrap
Derek Thompson & Noah Smith | Why America Cant Build, Abundance & Substack Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-07-08 | In this episode of Econ 102, we're republishing a conversation between Noah Smith and Derek Thompson recorded live on Substack in June. They explore Derek’s shift from The Atlantic to Substack and unpack the “abundance agenda” — a vision for revitalizing American politics through better housing, energy, and innovation policy. Their wide-ranging conversation touches on economic reform, trendspotting, and the evolving media landscape.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at shopify.com/momentofzen.AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@DKThomp@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Derek Thompson: derekthompson.org/Abundance: amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482Paul Krugman: paulkrugman.substack.comMatt Yglesias: slowboring.com/Kyla Scanlan: kyla.substack.com/Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:42) Derek Thompson's move to Substack(01:37) Reflecting on The Atlantic and writing(05:16) Trend spotting and writing style(12:26) The Abundance agenda(17:55) Sponsors: Shopify | Netsuites(21:07) Political discourse and analysis(24:08) Housing policy and economic cycles(27:11) Challenges in housing and inflation(35:19) Critiques and future discussions(36:03) Independent heroes and glory in battle(36:24) Sponsor: Adquick(37:20) Critique of abundance and degrowth(41:42) Trump's scarcity mindset(43:52) Second critique of abundance(49:29) Proposals for a new new deal(59:06) Healthcare reform ideas(01:07:34) Wrap
What Replaces Twitter? With Noah Smith & Chris Best, CEO of Substack Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-06-21 | This week, we're republishing a conversation from last month between Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best, originally streamed on Substack Live. They discuss the future of media in an AI-driven world, including Noah's vision for AI-powered newsletters, the rise of independent voices, and the evolving roles of platforms like TikTok and Twitter. The conversation also explores Substack's potential as a breaking news hub, the broader impact of AI on content creation, shifting U.S.-China relations, and the role of industrial policy in shaping global dynamics.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at shopify.com/momentofzen.AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@cjgbest@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:The Age of Twitter is finally ending. Can Substack take its place?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-age-of-twitter-is-finally-endingNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:38) Future of media with AI(02:19) Independent voices and media trends(03:18) Role of platforms in media(05:00) Substack as a breaking news platform(13:39) Sponsors: Shopify | Netsuites(16:12) Substack as a real-time OSINT hub(20:26) AI's impact on media and society(23:26) Power of individual content creation(24:14) Challenge of attention in the age of infinite content(25:31) Human alignment problem vs. AI alignment(25:54) Why AI won't replace unique human perspectives(28:26) Future of AI and human interaction(32:47) Sponsor: Adquick(33:45) Decline of American influence and the rise of China(40:23) Race for electric technology and policy challenges(44:24) Wrap
China, Tesla, and the Electric Tech Stack Revolution Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-06-12 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss China’s economic strategies, technological advancements, and geopolitical challenges, contrasting them with U.S. policy. They discuss topics from the Hong Kong protests to battery manufacturing and emphasize the need for American industrial policy, education reform, and strategic investment to stay competitive.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at shopify.com/momentofzen.AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Is the U.S. in a "high-level equilibrium trap"?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-the-us-in-a-high-level-equilibriumNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:21) Disclosure(01:26) Casual conversation and personal updates(02:19) Discussion on China and Hong Kong protests(03:35) China's economic and demographic challenges(07:24) China's financial system and real estate issues(11:30) Sponsors: Netsuite | Shopify(14:04) China’s economic slowdown(16:15) Technological strengths and future projections(20:50) US vs China in drone manufacturing(22:44) Rise of electric motors(24:14) China's dominance in electric tech(25:54) Challenges for American manufacturing(28:38) Importance of solar and batteries(31:19) Elon Musk's role in electric tech(36:46) Overcoming bottlenecks in manufacturing(41:32) Sponsor: Adquick(42:27) Political dynamics and industrial policy(43:41) Wrap
Cost Disease, USAID Debate, and is Curtis Yarvin Trapped in 2020 Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-06-04 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore persistent economic myths and recent developments—from cost disease in services like healthcare and education to stagnating manufacturing productivity, rising higher education costs, drug pricing policies, and student loan debates—while also reflecting on broader intellectual shifts driven by culture wars and foreign aid discussions.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:19) Disclosure(01:56) Debunking economic tropes: Cost disease(03:04) Manufacturing vs. service productivity(06:58) Role of technology in services(11:51) Student loans and economic policy(13:43) Sponsors: Netsuite | Adquick(15:57) Understanding inflation measures: CPI vs. PCE(19:27) Real cost of college(20:27) Value of trade jobs(21:26) Pharmaceutical price controls(24:16) Debating foreign aid efficiency(27:00) Dictatorship vs. democracy(30:15) Culture wars and generational stagnation(37:14) Wrap
Noah Smith & Matt Yglesias: Were Losing the Tech War to China (And Nobody Cares) Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-05-28 | This week, we're republishing a conversation Noah Smith and Matt Yglesias live on Substack this past Monday. They revisit a wide-ranging conversation on the transformative role of electric motors, batteries, and industrial policy in a politically polarized era, touching on the history of energy, global economic competition, AI regulation, the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic strategy, and the need to redefine America’s identity amid demographic shifts.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@mattyglesias@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Slow Boring: slowboring.com/podcast–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:37) Historical evolution of energy(01:49) Technological breakthroughs in the 1990s(02:42) Battery-powered innovations(04:07) Manufacturing and industrial policy(05:57) AI and technological frontiers(08:12) Political and economic implications(13:51) Sponsors: Netsuite | Adquick(15:55) China on electric vehicle (EV)(24:46) Cultural and political shifts(36:50) Religious freedom and minority rights(38:28) Race and reverse discrimination(39:13) Trump administration's anti-discrimination policies(41:43) Identity politics and democratic party dynamics(45:42) Obama's coalition and democratic strategy(47:22) Challenges facing the democratic party(54:20) Economic policies and fiscal challenges(01:04:54) Democratic party's internal dynamics(01:12:23) Wrap
India-Pakistan, Building Back Military Power, and Immigration Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-05-23 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine global conflicts—especially India-Pakistan tensions—the U.S. military and industrial strategy amid rising threats from China, and the implications of AI and electrification, emphasizing the need for smarter immigration and industrial policies to maintain America's technological and geopolitical edge.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:19) Disclosure(01:45) India-Pakistan conflict(02:25) Historical context of India-Pakistan relations(04:22) Recent escalations and military actions(06:27) Implications for global politics(06:48) US involvement and strategic interests(15:16) Challenges in US defense strategy(16:00) Sponsors: Netsuite | Adquick(18:05) Reviving the US Defense industrial base(20:32) Political and ideological barriers(29:12) Urgency of military preparedness(32:04) Globalization and wage stagnation(32:50) Role of productivity in wage growth(34:09) Financialization and union decline(40:21) Impact of AI on productivity(49:51) Future of electric technology(51:14) Combustion vs. Electricity: Shift in power(56:42) Role of subsidies in technological advancement(57:20) Wrap
The Middle Class Myth, Chinas Future, and What Really Happened in 1971 Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-05-15 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg debunk myths about the American middle class and globalization, analyze historical data on wage stagnation and trade, assess China’s technological rise, and discuss U.S. economic resilience and policy responses to protectionism.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/globalization-did-not-hollow-outNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Disclosure(01:25) Debunking the middle class hollowing myth(03:37) Reality of wage stagnation(06:02) Impact of globalization on wages(07:56) Service sector jobs and economic shifts(09:12) Misconceptions about globalization(11:36) Sponsors: Netsuite | Adquick(13:41) Oil shocks and economic changes(20:28) Deindustrialization and manufacturing challenges(25:16) China shock and its aftermath(27:04) Debating economic protectionism(28:21) Main story of the American economy(30:01) Tariffs and their impact on manufacturing(31:06) Promoting exports over imports(33:44) China's economic evolution(36:54) Future of Chinese and American economies(46:51) Technological leadership and political challenges(50:17) Wrap
You Cant Tariff Your Way to Greatness Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-05-02 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore how nostalgia influences politics and economic policy in the US and China, comparing their consumer cultures, industrial strategies, and the complex effects of tariffs on domestic economies and global relations.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:If you think Americans are mad now, just wait a few months: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/if-you-think-americans-are-mad-nowNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:25) Nostalgia in politics(01:29) China's historical greatness and modern achievements(05:46) United States' perspective on greatness(07:32) Cultural shifts and consumerism in the US and China(11:08) Tariff updates and economic impacts(16:33) Sponsors: Netsuite | Adquick(18:37) Strategies for managing tariffs(27:50) Europe's shift in trade relations(28:20) China's domestic market potential(32:41) Impact of tariffs on US manufacturing(36:39) Trump's foreign policy and its consequences(43:41) Europe's strategic partnerships(50:54) Historical context of global conflicts(53:55) Wrap
The Deindustrialization Paradox Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-24 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore topics ranging from the futuristic themes of Black Mirror and the societal impact of technology to a critical analysis of Trump’s de-industrializing tariff policies versus Biden’s growth-focused subsidies, while also examining libertarianism’s influence on American politics and the cultural shifts it may entail.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Worst-case scenarios and endgames for the Trump economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/worst-case-scenarios-and-endgamesIn which I review almost every episode of Black Mirror: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/in-which-i-review-almost-every-episodeNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:09) Black Mirror: A deep dive(05:10) Trump's best and worst case scenarios(08:21) Impact of tariffs on the economy(13:26 Oren Cass and industrial policy(15:41) Sponsors: Netsuite | Adquick(17:46) Future of free trade(19:14) Trump's trade policies and their impact(21:43) Biden's economic strategy(24:25) Successes and failures of Biden's administration(26:28) Libertarianism and the right-wing shift(30:37) Fragmentation of American society(35:43) Potential solutions and future scenarios(37:31) Wrap
The Bond Market Rules Everything Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-18 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, criticizing their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining broader issues like currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:36) Discussing Trump's trade policies(03:17) Madman theory and economic uncertainty(07:05) Impact of tariffs on investment(11:16) Understanding bond yields and borrowing costs(16:19) Sponsors: Netsuite | AdQuick(18:23) Weaker dollar debate(22:37) Critique of Trump's economic strategies(29:31) Importance of exports in the American economy(30:12) Misconceptions about American manufacturing(33:21) Impact of retaliation on exports(36:34) Challenges in manufacturing and borrowing costs(40:27) Trump's economic strategies and potential consequences(42:27) Developing a strong anti-China strategy(49:41) Reflecting on missed opportunities and future strategies(54:14) Wrap
Tariff Mayhem and Capital Flight Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-14 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ All the arguments for Trumps Tariffs are wrong and bad: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-areThis is called Capital Flight: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:29) Economic mayhem and Trump's tariffs(02:56) Understanding trade deficits and tariffs(10:36) Mechanisms of capital flight(15:19) Sponsors: Netsuite | AdQuick(17:23) Sovereign default risks under Trump(25:46) Impact of tariffs on manufacturing(29:03) Trump's negotiation tactics and global trade(30:52) Tribute demands and historical precedents(32:04) Challenges in eliminating trade deficits(35:00) China's strategic response to tariffs(36:40) Impact on American manufacturing and economy(42:40) Trump's misunderstanding of the real economy(49:35) Elon Musk's dilemma and Trump's fundraising tactics(52:45) Broader Economic and political implications(54:23) Wrap
📢 Thank You Jack Dorsey for Opening the FLOODGATES OF HELL! Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-06 | Crazies used to be powerless, now they run everything online. Noah Smith explains on Upstream
When AI Gets Worse Over Time: The Scaling Paradox Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-06 | In this excerpt from the 2024 episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore the growing role of AI in professions—especially banking—highlighting its strengths in customer service, its limitations like inaccuracies and hallucinations, and the enduring value of human interaction.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) AI's role in banking(02:15) Challenges with AI accuracy(06:30) AI in customer service(07:57) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(10:17) Outro
🤯 The NEW RIGHT: Its Not About FAITH, Its About BORDERS! Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-05 | The new right isn't about living Christianity—it's about drawing borders around "Christendom."
🔥 Artists Arent Owed Jobs! - Noah Smith confronts critics of AI Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-04 | Noah Smith takes on the AI art critics who call it "fascist" - arguing nobody is guaranteed a job forever.
The New Left vs The New Right Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-04-01 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Cory McArthur aka Irish Lotus: soundcloud.com/cory-mcarthur-879994262/irish-lotus–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Growing constituency for abundance(05:01) Obama's legacy and achievements(11:53) Ukraine's technological advancements in warfare(16:10) Sponsor: Netsuite(17:25) The 2008 financial crisis and government response(21:44) Role of government spending in economic recovery(28:36) Addressing national debt and inflation(31:20) Sponsor: AdQuick(32:14) Clinton, Bush, and fiscal policies(33:27) Role of growth and AI in debt management(35:18) AI's impact on jobs and society(36:21) Trump's ideology and the New Right(43:35) Identity politics and online culture wars(47:54) Influence of social media on politics(01:04:51) Future of information and media(01:05:23) Wrap & special listener jam
The Dissonance of Crime Perception vs Reality in Cities Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-28 | In this excerpt from the 2024 episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg discuss the economic and social forces shaping cities, covering topics such as policing and crime rates, housing affordability, bohemian tech culture, regulation, crime perception, socio-economic challenges, street-level disorder, property crime, homelessness, and future economic trends.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Impact of crime on urban housing(01:11) Rise of the tech bohemian culture(03:44) Crime statistics and public perception(06:21) Homelessness and urban disorder(08:04) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(10:24) Outro
Abundance Debate, Sex Politics, and Left vs Right Economic Populism Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-25 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gender in the workforce, and economic populism.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Abundance: amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-bookNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:24) Cherry blossoms and Zao buildings(03:39) Japan's housing success(10:02) The Abundance conversation(12:57) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(15:24) Critiques and progressive politics(30:54) Nostalgia and misconceptions of the 1950s(31:31) Advertising's role in shaping perceptions(32:53) Fantasy vs. Reality in cultural perceptions(33:37) The Alt-right and misguided nostalgia(33:55) Sponsor: AdQuick(34:50) Society's double standards on sexuality(42:15) Gender and class dynamics in employment(47:35) Public perception of corporations(50:31) Balancing government and market for abundance(59:06) Wrap
What Happens If China Attacks Taiwan? Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-21 | In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the strategic and economic stakes of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, arguing that the US would likely intervene due to a probable preemptive attack on its military bases rather than to defend democracy or economic interests, while also exploring supply chain diversification, government support for small businesses, and broader geopolitical implications.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Implications of a China-Taiwan conflict(01:15) China's strategic calculations(03:48) Preparing for potential conflict(05:19) Diversifying supply chains08:05 Role of small businesses and government(08:15) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(10:36) Outro
How Europe, America and China are Repositioning Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-18 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Weeb Economy: bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-bookNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:26) Noah’s book release: Weeb Economy(01:36) Social media and public perception(02:48) America and Europe relations(08:05) Impact of Trump's policies on Europe(13:11) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(15:36) Cost of leadership(20:02) China's global strategy and Belt and Road initiative(25:58) China's capital controls and investment decoupling(27:29) Greenfield FDI and technology transfer(31:23) Role of women in industrialization(34:38) Challenges and red tape in India's growth(34:49) Sponsors: AdQuick(35:44) China's globalization vs. America's isolation(37:36) Japan's economic strategy and strengthening the Yen(39:19) AI, economic growth, and the O-ring theory(46:32) Government spending and GDP(51:44) Wrap
Japan & Koreas New Relationship in Chinas Shadow Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-14 | In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the evolving diplomatic relations between Japan and Korea, the influence of generational change, U.S. intervention, the business community, China's threat, Japan's immigration strategy, and the impact of brain drain for smaller countries.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Combating China: East Asian relations(00:47) Generational turnover and changing attitudes(03:26) Government actions and racism in Japan(07:00) Immigration and brain drain(11:28) Sponsors: Netsuite | Incogni(14:04) Outro
Making Sense of Americas Tariff Chaos Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-12 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and community disintegration.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: incogni.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:51) Trump's tariff chaos(01:40) Impact on US economy(03:00) Global trade dynamics(05:32) Trump's economic isolationism(06:38) Elon Musk and government contracts(15:26) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(17:51) Policy uncertainty and investment(32:24) Understanding trade deficits(32:38) Sponsors: AdQuick | Incogni(34:58) China's economic growth(36:19) Innovation and invention(39:18) Decline of community and faith(44:12) Impact of technology on society(57:23) Role of religion in modern society(01:03:32) Wrap
AI, Stargate, & Surveillance with Auron McIntyre and Lev Polyakov Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-03-06 | In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements.–RECOMMENDED PODCAST:🎙️ @breakth3rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers.Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBhYouTube: youtube.com/@breakth3rules–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: incogni.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@LevPo@AuronMacintyre@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfmThe Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: amazon.com/dp/1684515580?ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3HNoahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:49) Debate on AI and technology(02:41) Discussion on AI's impact on jobs(05:06) AI and societal implications(07:41) Regulation and future of AI(12:55) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(15:20) Trump, AI, and technocracy(20:02) Europe and AI development(24:19) Sponsors: AdQuick | Incogni(26:39) Coalitional politics(30:46) Job demand fluctuation(37:10) Wrap
Richard Hanania & Noah Smith: Making Sense of Trump, Elon, and Global Politics Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-28 | This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th, recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: incogni.com/econ102–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@RichardHanania@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: richardhanania.com Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false –TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:12) Discussion on Gaza policy and Trump's influence(03:49) Trump's Middle East policy and Gaza refugees(09:01) China's zero COVID policy and Western influence(14:35) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(16:59) Trump, Putin, and the Ukraine conflict(32:00) Sponsors: Adquick | Incogni(34:21) Historical parallels: Spanish Civil War and modern politics(40:47) Alt-right factions and tech right conflicts(43:02) Elon Musk's ideology and influence(45:43) Historical analogies and global politics(53:27) Embracing the future: technology and society(58:41) Political landscape and future predictions(01:11:02) Building a massive audience on Substack(01:16:25) Wrap
Elon calls Noah a Liar, Inflation, and Changes Democrats Need to Make Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-26 | This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness by bringing entrepreneurial talent to politics, arguing that Democrats need to stop alienating tech entrepreneurs and instead recruit similar talent to their side.–SPONSORS:NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: incogni.com/econ102–Timestamps(00:00) Intro(03:56) The future of the tDemocratic Party(04:38) Inflation and economic policies(10:04) Democracy and election integrity(15:17) Tech entrepreneurs and political influence(18:37) Sponsors: NetSuite | Found(21:39) Progressive baggage and language policing(27:48) Sponsors: Adquick | Incogni(30:36) Trans rights and activism(33:08) The Sister Souljah Moment(33:37) Young people shifting right(34:36) Intellectual dark web and Trump(35:29) Rise of situationships(37:05) Biden's economic policies(43:21) Threats to democracy(46:33) Elon Musk and government efficiency(52:29) Future of neoliberalism(59:40) Wrap–SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co–FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion Substack: How the Democrats Can Fight Back https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-the-democrats-can-fight-backNoahpinion Substack: Only Fools Think Elon is Incompetent https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/only-fools-think-elon-is-incompetent
🤔 Europe just pretends to be ineffectual? Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-22 | In the absence of American support, Europe will have to get serious about key reforms they've so far avoided.
The Warning Signs of World War III Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-21 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the urgent need for the U.S. to revitalize its defense industrial base in response to global tensions, addressing listener Joshua Milton's concerns about U.S. readiness for potential conflicts, the importance of reducing reliance on China, strengthening alliances with nations like Japan, India, and Europe, and the economic implications of defense spending, especially in light of the Ukraine war.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Americans are still not worried enough about the risk of world war: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-still-not-worried-enough--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:23) U.S. readiness for global conflicts(00:48) Reviving the U.S. defense industrial base(01:54) Role of drones and semiconductors(02:16) Dependence on China and reshoring efforts(03:19) Impact of the Ukraine war on U.S. defense(05:08) Building alliances to counter China(06:52) Historical context: Preludes to world wars(09:22) Cold War 2 vs. World War 3(10:28) Sponsors: NetSuite | Incogni(13:04) Outro
⚖️ Why the US Cant Win Over Russia Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-20 | "Russia is China's Canada" | Noah Smith on Geopolitical Reality#shorts #geopolitics #russia #china #foreignpolicy
Europes Fate, Ukraine & Russia, and the Post-American Era Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-19 | In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how Ukraine has proven surprisingly resilient throughout the war by maintaining its economy and developing significant domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. He argues that "Europe is not toothless" despite America's shifting role, detailing how Europe collectively has greater manufacturing capacity than America and identifying three key reforms Europe needs: deregulating software, building energy infrastructure, and removing internal trade barriers.--SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia–RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion newsletter: It’s time for Europe to stand up https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/its-time-for-europe-to-stand-upBook: Old Man’s War by John Scalzi goodreads.com/book/show/36510196-old-man-s-war–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:02) On Ukraine and Russia(05:27) European involvement in the conflict(15:14) Historical context and comparisons(16:50) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(19:15) Russia's historical defeats(19:47) Putin's imperial ambitions(24:25) Balancing powers in Europe(27:28) Sponsor: Incogni | Adquick(29:48) Russia, China, and Europe's defense(36:59) The future of Ukraine(47:03) Economic reforms for Europe(53:40) Wrap
How the Macro, Tariffs and DOGE will Impact your Bank Account | Noah Smith on How To Money Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-14 | This week, we’re bringing you an episode from the How to Money podcast, hosted by Joel Larsgaard and Matt Altmix, with special guest Noah Smith. Together, they dive into a range of topics, including the impact of tariffs, Substack’s revolutionary media model, and Noah’s unique economic philosophy. Tune in for insights on the escalating national debt, the baby bust, and the rising costs of U.S. healthcare. Noah also offers solutions, with a focus on boosting productivity and strategic immigration. Plus, don’t miss their take on Argentina’s dramatic economic decisions!--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102IncogniTake your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@HowToMoneyPod@HowToMoneyJoel@HowToMoneyMatt@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/How To Money: howtomoney.comTariffs, DOGE, and Your Money w/ Noahpinion – Episode 944: howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(03:04) Role of Substack in modern media(08:50) Noah's economic philosophy(11:56) Impact of macroeconomics on personal finance(16:41) Tariffs and their economic implications(21:58) Government spending and national debt(27:04) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(29:39) Declining birth rates and economic challenges(34:10) Impact of aging on productivity(34:56) Immigration policy and population crisis(36:41) Global fertility trends(38:06) Healthcare costs in the U.S.(45:01) Economic strength and productivity in America(49:00) Sponsors: AdQuick | Incogni(51:23) Argentina's economic turnaround(55:40) Personal finance lessons from national debt(01:01:22) Wrap
Elons Real Goal at DOGE and How to Fix the Debt Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-12 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between inflation and austerity, and how conservatives might reshape federal institutions despite education polarization. Plus: why comparing government efficiency to Twitter's headcount reduction isn't as straightforward as it seems.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(02:07) Discussion on Doge and government efficiency(07:31) Loss of funds within government systems(11:15) Financial impact and austerity measures(14:15) Sponsors: Netsuite | Found(16:40) Lowering interest rates(21:23) Medicaid and welfare programs(26:09) Federal budget breakdown(27:09) Healthcare spending and subsidies(29:03) Student debt and loan forgiveness(30:56) Sponsor: AdQuick(31:50) Economic impact of subsidies(37:06) Social security challenges(39:50) Government efficiency and ideology(52:07) Foreign influence and aid(54:13) Wrap
Patrick Collison & Noah Smith: How can the US Stay Ahead Technologically? Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-07 | This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z’s well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. --SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@patrickc@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-leastStripe: stripe.com--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:55) US technological leadership(03:18) Economic policy and FDI(05:34) Labor productivity trends(10:02) Private equity and labor reallocation(11:59) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(16:01) Rethinking liberalism and progressive policies(25:51) Debating the impact of tariffs(26:37) Potential diplomatic fallout(27:49) Economic benefits of tariffs?(27:57) Sponsors: Found | AdQuick(30:02) Reshoring and humanoid robots(32:09) The YIMBY movement and urban density(36:35) Gen Z and technological adaptation(41:19) Institutional quality and decline(45:44) Policy prescriptions for the future(47:27) Conclusion and Farewell
The Internet Was Free... Until China Started Cutting Cables 🔌 Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-06 | The US built global web infrastructure on a bet: free trade would prevent conflict. Now China is cutting cables and seeking control of the networks that power world trade.
Understanding America’s China Problem Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-02-05 | In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast @CognitiveRevolutionPodcast ) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence. --📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --RECOMMENDED PODCAST:Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive RevolutionApple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSykYouTube: youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast--SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at found.com/econ102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@labenz@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__EBook: Rush Doshi, The Long Game goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-gameBook: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_DeterrenceNoahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-bigNoahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:31) Understanding US-China relations(04:10) Strategic dynamics of US-China rivalry(11:17) China's leadership and policy shifts(12:38) Impact of Xi Jinping's leadership(15:36) China's global ambitions and US response(21:01) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(23:14) Threats posed by China's strategies(32:21) Understanding export controls(32:42) Military balance and nuclear weapons(34:13) Conventional deterrence and precision weaponry(37:16) Role of chips in modern warfare(39:22) Effectiveness of export controls(46:03) Sponsor: AdQuick | Found(48:08) Future of AI and military supremacy(58:18) China's strategic actions and global relations(01:02:45) Wrap
Paul Krugman on Leaving NYT, Americas Economy, and Trump Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-31 | This week Noah Smith and economist Paul Krugman hopped on a call to discuss Paul's departure from the New York Times, the benefits of independent writing, U.S. manufacturing and industrial policy, geopolitics, Trump 2.0, and the impact of public opinion on economic and political discourse. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. https://www.noahpinion.blog/--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. --SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@paulkrugman@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(01:48) Leaving The New York Times(05:02) Challenges of traditional media(06:45) Rise of Substack(18:29) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(20:41) Reflecting on the Reagan years(30:58) Unleashing chaos: Impact of deportations(31:54) Economic consequences of immigration policies(32:33) Historical parallels: McCarthyism and the red scare(34:38) Argentina's economic experiment(36:04) America's economic resilience(42:06) Sponsor: AdQuick(43:01) Manufacturing and strategic sectors(01:01:19) Role of industrial policy(01:02:23) Substack and the future of intellectual discourse(01:05:44) Wrap
Trumps Executive Orders, Chinas Economy, The Bull Case for the Middle East, and Europes Decline Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-29 | In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss wide range of topics, including Trump’s executive orders and their effects on U.S. politics, international tariffs, Michael Pettis's views on China's economy, the Middle East’s potential with solar energy, and Europe’s socio-political shifts, all through the lens of economics.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. --SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:24) Analyzing Trump's executive orders(00:57) Trump's power struggle with civil service(03:02) Executive Orders: Legal and political implications(05:25) Trump's overreach and policy impact(08:32) Republicans vs. Democrats on technology(13:04) Trump's influence and corruption concerns(14:51) Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration(18:08) Civil Service and political appointments(18:40) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(20:53) Shift in civil service dynamics(25:18) Future of DEI and Education polarization(30:30) China, tariffs, and international economics(33:15) Economists' critique of Pettis(38:32) Sponsor: AdQuick(39:27) Trump's tariff tactics(42:23) Deregulation and economic policy(44:21) Middle East: A bullish perspective(51:01) European assimilation challenges(01:00:38) Historical parallels and assimilation(01:03:40) Wrap
Why Indian Immigrants Succeed in America Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-24 | In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith explore how selection effects and ethnic enclaves influence group success in America, focusing on immigrant communities like Indian, African, Caribbean, and Jewish, while examining racial disparities, national identity, anti-racism perspectives, and the challenges of addressing systemic inequality.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) India's intellectual migration(01:11) Selection effects and group differences(02:41) Ethnic enclaves and economic outcomes(04:32) Racial gaps and national identity(11:10) Challenges of racial reparations(12:41) Sponsor: Netsuite(13:51) Outro
Taiwans Future, Nuclear Proliferation, and Trump 2.0 with Lily Ottinger of ChinaTalk Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-22 | This week, Noah Smith sat down with @ChinaTalkMedia's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts, while also offering insights into global economic trends, technological influences on politics, and his upcoming book on Japan's economic revival.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. --SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:23) Insights on Trump's Asia policy(01:22) Influence of the tech right in Trump's administration(02:33) Debate on deregulation and tariffs(04:51) China's influence and Trump's corruption(14:12) Case for nuclear proliferation in East Asia(20:39) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(22:52) Why Japan needs nukes?(34:03) Comparing China's real estate bust to Japan's asset bubble(37:27) Understanding deflation and its impact(38:50) China's economic challenges(40:14) Sponsor: AdQuick(41:09) Deflation in China: A taboo topic(42:14) China's demographic and economic future(48:15) Georgist analysis of China's property market(53:30) Healthcare systems(01:01:48) Taiwan's diplomatic strategies(01:09:39) Wrap
Should the US do Auto Tariffs? Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-17 | In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss optimal US-China trade policies, exploring the effects of tariffs, China's manufacturing strategy, and historical parallels between Ford's WWII-era role in production and Musk's modern influence, while also touching on Ford's controversies and the impact of mass production.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:21) Understanding trade policies: US vs China(01:18) China's economic strategies and challenges(03:18) Role of car industries in economic and military power(03:53) Parallels between Henry Ford and Elon Musk(05:55) Henry Ford's controversial history(07:52) Impact of World War II on Ford's business(11:39) Sponsor: Netsuite(12:49) Outro
A Debate with Scott Sumner: Industrial Policy, China, and National Security Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-15 | In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Scott Sumner, an American economist and previously the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, examine the impact of U.S.-China relations on economic and industrial policies, discussing topics such as tariffs, manufacturing capabilities, technologies like drones and batteries, climate change, defense strategies, and the evolving role of neoliberalism.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit adquick.com today to start reaching your customers in the real world. --SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@ScottSumnerTMI@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/The Pursuit of Happiness: scottsumner.substack.com--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(03:35) Discussion on industrial policy(04:30) Debating neoliberalism and industrial policy(07:09) China's role in global manufacturing(10:13) Challenges of implementing industrial policy(13:15) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(15:28) Impact of Chinese industrial policy(20:05) Historical context of industrial policy(28:20) Debating the merits of industrial policy(29:08) Sponsor: AdQuick(30:02) Deregulation and working-class benefits(31:50) National defense and industrial policy(32:21) China vs. Russia: Threats and policies(34:11) Economic warfare and manufacturing(38:52) Importance of dual-use technologies(47:04) Scenarios and military strategy(54:53) Wrap
Canada After Trudeau, Immigration Debate, and Chinas Economy Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-09 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping's political future, U.S.-China tensions, Trump's and Biden's policies, the 2019 global protests, China's economic troubles, and the challenges facing Western nations, while also emphasizing the need for bipartisan cooperation on U.S. industrial policy.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: Notion📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/The Players on the Eve of Destruction: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destructionHow do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-do-we-measure-whether-chinasBiden's tarnished industrial legacy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/bidens-tarnished-industrial-legacyTrudeau was a poor steward of Canada's economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trudeau-was-a-poor-steward-of-canadas--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:32) Noah's New Year's essays(01:08) Geopolitical tensions and Taiwan(04:04) Trump's foreign policy and negotiation tactics(07:24) Trudeau's economic legacy(16:47) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion(19:00) Global protests and social media(29:42) Elon Musk and european politics(32:48) Comparing healthcare systems(33:14) Elon Musk's influence on politics(33:40) Freedom of speech in the UK and Canada(36:05) Elon Musk and the alt-right conflict(38:05) Changing conservative coalition(44:08) China's economic challenges(54:03) Biden's industrial policy legacy(59:17) Wrap
Why China Actually Wants a Strong Dollar Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-06 | In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the global impact of US dollar reliance, exploring how inflation affects countries with fixed and floating exchange rates, the strategies used to manage currencies, the shift away from the dollar, the potential rise of the Chinese yuan, and the future of the US as the world's reserve currency.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: netsuite.com/102--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Understanding reliance on the US dollar(00:55) Fixed vs Floating exchange rates(02:34) Impact of US inflation on other countries(04:07) Shifting reliance from the dollar(06:31) Geopolitical implications of currency use(08:02) Future of the US as a reserve currency(09:58) China's economic ambitions(10:37) Sponsor: Netsuite(11:47) Outro
Trump, Tariffs, and the New 80s: Americas Next Cultural Reset Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2025-01-02 | This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Silicon Valley's cultural influence, Marc Andreessen's predictions, what comes after wokeness, tariffs on China, Reaganomics, the 'polycrisis,' the future of industrial policy, and political dynamics involving Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Paul Krugman.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Marc Andreessen on Trump, the vibe shift, and what’s after wokeness: youtu.be/l8X8jecivWw?si=ZKfdrvEetz8sZ6HiThe Wokeness series: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-wokeness-seriesReady Player One: goodreads.com/book/show/9969571-ready-player-oneWe Have Never Been Woke: amazon.com/Have-Never-Been-Woke-Contradictions/dp/0691232601Musa al-Garbhi Substack: musaalgharbi.substack.comAkira: imdb.com/title/tt0094625The Big Chill: imdb.com/title/tt0085244--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:20) Silicon Valley and tech scene insights(01:23) Rise and Fall of wokeness(04:42) Cultural shifts and predictions(08:13) Historical parallels and social movements(17:03) Sponsor: Givewell(18:22) Rightist and anti-abortion attacks(23:49) Impact of tariffs and economic policies(29:49) Private sector investment and the CHIPS Act(30:29) Government vs. Private sector efficiency(31:43) Role of competition in government contracting(33:03) Challenges in social services and infrastructure(36:23) Polycrisis debate(41:12) Austerity measures and fiscal control(45:39) Industrial policy and manufacturing(46:58) Trump vs. Elon: Conflicting visions(57:28) Paul Krugman's legacy and keynesianism(59:23) Wrap
How Dangerous is San Francisco, Really? Econ 102 with Noah Smith 2024-12-27 | In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore San Francisco's urban challenges, focusing on homelessness and gang activity, with Noah offering insights into how the city's geography, weather, and development have attracted homeless populations, while also examining the role of its prison system in perpetuating gang culture.--📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess --SPONSORS: GiveWellGiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.--SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co--FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--LINKS:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/--TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:21) San Francisco: A walkable city(00:46) Homelessness in San Francisco(02:19) Gang dynamics in San Francisco(05:07) Prison gangs and their influence(07:41) Sponsor: Givewell(08:55) Outro
