All-In Podcast
In conversation with Elon Musk: Twitters bot problem, SpaceXs grand plan, Tesla stories & more
updated
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#allin #tech #news
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#allin #tech #news
(3:18) The science behind Hurricanes Helene and Milton
(14:59) The economics of intensifying natural disasters
(29:03) AlphaFold creators win Nobel Prize in Chemistry
(35:17) The Jayter's Ball
(38:53) Google antitrust update: DOJ is going for a breakup
(53:32) VC giveback: CRV will return ~$275M of a $500M fund to LPs
(1:03:44) New TikTok survey shows increased usage as a news source
(1:15:26) Election update: Are polling problems causing a strategy shift for Kamala Harris?
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Referenced in the show:
allin.com/meetups
youtube.com/@allin
allin.com/tequila
allin.com
https://x.com/Ry_Bass/status/1844367980249178396
newsweek.com/hurricane-helene-update-economic-losses-damage-could-total-160-billion-1961240
climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2024-enso-update-binge-watch
nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3
https://x.com/vkhosla/status/1844166857655533811
aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/sfury.html
nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03214-7
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/us-says-it-s-weighing-google-breakup-as-remedy-in-monopoly-case
assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rtKjE02hAh_k/v0
https://x.com/AOC/status/1844034727935988155
nytimes.com/2024/10/02/technology/crv-vc-fund-returning-money.html
axios.com/2023/03/03/founders-fund-slashes-vc-peter-thiel
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/09/17/more-americans-regularly-get-news-on-tiktok-especially-young-adults
pewresearch.org/data-labs/2024/10/08/who-u-s-adults-follow-on-tiktok
wsj.com/world/europe/russia-pays-criminals-to-sow-mayhem-in-europe-warns-u-k-spy-chief-21ab960c
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1844418916107341948
https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1844803367740096811
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1829383729284067659
#allin #tech #news
(1:56) Ingo lays out the case for Adyen over Stripe
(6:37) Building and scaling a tech company in Europe
(11:43) Thoughts on stablecoins, financial deplatforming, expanding into India
(17:50) AI in fintech, open-source solutions
(20:31) Offering services in authoritarian countries, data in economic forecasting, working as a Co-CEO
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(0:20) Joby Aviation Intro
(2:01) Archer Aviation Intro
(4:43) Wisk Aero Intro
(8:31) The biggest consumer issues facing eVTOLs, liquidity, scalability, pro-eVTOL areas
(15:57) Autonomous flight, redundancy, pilot necessity, edge cases
(24:35) Acoustic issues, creating a network through scale, go to market decisions, batteries
(32:49) When eVTOLS will be commercially available, working with the FAA
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(2:06) The obesity problem: a global chronic health epidemic
(13:07) The history of discovering GLP-1s
(20:38) Impact of GLP-1s on different human functions
(27:09) Understanding the commercial aspect of drug discovery, pricing for GLP-1 drugs
(33:11) Responding to criticism and research of GLP-1 dependency
(40:04) Stock performance, dealing with political pressure related to successful drugs
(47:19) Eli Lilly's portfolio of drugs outside of GLP-1s, what science Dave is excited about
(56:09) Scaling and impacting culture at a 100+ year-old company
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Referenced in the show:
google.com/finance/quote/LLY:NYSE
cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity-adult-17-18/Estat-adults-fig.png
pbs.org/newshour/politics/fda-approves-new-version-of-diabetes-drug-mounjaro-to-be-sold-for-weight-loss
cnn.com/2024/01/08/health/weight-loss-drug-insurance-denials/index.html
https://i.insider.com/638f471e57aefa0018eb9a3d?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp
https://x.com/EconomyApp
#allin #tech #news
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Referenced in the show:
#allin #tech #news
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#allin #tech #news
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(5:43) The history of Cuban's love/hate relationship with Trump
(19:08) Trump's performance as President: what he got right and wrong
(40:46) Party nominations: Kamala vs. Trump
(49:18) Biden's performance as President: what he got right and wrong
(55:45) Should Kamala share blame for Biden's failures?
(1:07:01) International conflict, national debt, crypto regulation
(1:21:33) General sense of Kamala Harris, why she's been avoiding adversarial interviews, why Sacks supports Trump
(1:31:47) Selling a majority of his Mavericks stake, changing business landscape of the NBA, what he's working on at Cost Plus Drugs
(1:44:50) Thoughts on AI, what's next for him
(1:51:37) Relationship with Elon, re-evaluating the Twitter deal, OpenAI's new fundraise
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Referenced in the show:
eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
architecturaldigest.com/story/wait-are-windowless-bedrooms-going-to-be-a-thing
https://washingtonreporter.news/editorial/scoop-kamala-harris-likely-to-nominate-gary-gensler-as-treasury-secretary-if-elected-senate-sources
#allin #tech #news
(0:47) Breaking down the recent breakthroughs in aging reversal
(22:48) Chamath and Friedberg join Juan Carlos on stage to discuss the magnitude of his research
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(2:04) Jake breaks down the business of Gecko Robotics
(18:54) The Besties join Jake on stage
(20:42) Jake explains the sales cycle at Gecko
(23:08) The crippling infrastructure of the old world
(27:34) How Jake thinks about the coming wave of humanoid robots
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#allin #tech #news
(6:43) OpenAI's $150B valuation: bull and bear cases
(24:46) Will AI hurt or help SaaS incumbents?
(40:41) Implications from OpenAI's for-profit conversion
(49:57) Meta's impressive new AR glasses: is this the killer product for the age of AI?
(1:09:05) Blue collar boom: trades are becoming more popular as entry-level tech jobs dry up
(1:20:55) Risk of nuclear war increasing
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Referenced in the show:
reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openais-stunning-150-billion-valuation-hinges-upending-corporate-structure-2024-09-14
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/openai-cto-mira-murati-says-she-will-leave-the-company
https://x.com/chiefaioffice
openai.com/our-structure
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1658664383717978112
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1839121268521492975
politico.com/news/2024/08/26/zuckerberg-meta-white-house-pressure-00176399
appleinsider.com/articles/12/12/28/early-apple-prototypes-by-frog-designs-hartmut-esslinger-featured-in-upcoming-book
cnbc.com/2024/09/16/the-toolbelt-generation-why-teens-are-losing-faith-in-college.html
wsj.com/tech/tech-jobs-artificial-intelligence-cce22393
https://layoffs.fyi
educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-20/zelenskiy-to-push-us-for-nato-invite-weapons-guarantees
#allin #tech #news
(3:04) Thomas presents "The State of the Unicorn Economy"
(20:05) Besties join Thomas on stage for a discussion
(21:34) Venture capital's relative underperformance over the past decade
(30:45) Fixing what's broken in startups and VC
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#allin #tech #news
(10:26) Woody and Friedberg demonstrate how far the Moon is from Earth
(13:51) Artemis timelines, going back to the Moon after decades, how astronaut assignments work
(17:39) How NASA will use the Moon as a training ground to get to Mars
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#allin #tech #news
(0:54) Thoughts on JD Vance, the importance of bipartisanship, civil disagreements, and independent thinking
(6:21) Political pressure and growing toxicity in DC, Senator Sinema's controversial filibuster vote
(12:21) Money in politics, following "The Machine," the cost of a competitive Senate race
(15:10) Behind the scenes of Build Back Better
(21:43) Chances of a viable third party, what's next for Senator Sinema, innovation in the private sector
(25:43) Thoughts on Israel/Palestine, antisemitism on college campuses
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(2:56) How to build great businesses, lessons from his time at Google
(6:30) Lessons from working with Masa at SoftBank, risk tolerance
(11:51) Scaling Palo Alto Networks, handicapping cybersecurity, M&A strategy
(20:02) State of cyber threats
(24:23) Age of AI: How agents will change consumer apps, how AI is impacting cybersecurity
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Referenced in the show:
#allin #tech #news
(6:50) Fed cuts 50 bps: Economic tailwind, scary signal, or both?
(17:35) AI is coming for call centers; how agent training works
(33:41) US government wasting $50B for rural internet and EV charging stations
(47:10) Reflecting on some rough years in VC: is the model broken?
(1:07:18) Reacting to the first Trump/Kamala debate, what factors will make each candidate can win or lose the race
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Referenced in the show:
cnn.com/2024/09/19/investing/stocks-fed-rate-cut/index.html
wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-09-05-2024/card/say-goodbye-to-the-inverted-yield-curve--snsL80qp8JX9UvaMCvVc
mearsheimer.ai
seekingalpha.com/news/4144652-klarna-shuts-down-salesforce-as-service-provider-workday-to-meet-same-fate-amid-ai-initiatives
https://x.com/brendancarrfcc/status/1836079197967532497
reason.com/2024/05/30/7-5-billion-in-government-cash-only-built-8-e-v-chargers-in-2-5-years
cnbc.com/2024/09/17/spacexs-starlink-has-2500-aircraft-under-contract.html
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/the-us-installed-more-than-1-000-ev-charging-stations-since-summer
https://x.com/brendancarrfcc/status/1836435062994121053
https://x.com/brendancarrfcc/status/1834009499931463705
https://x.com/molson_hart/status/1835650978906857948
https://x.com/danprimack/status/1824506087116058665
https://x.com/Jason/status/1768073854545449228
chamath.substack.com/p/2023-annual-letter
https://x.com/Jason/status/1836820167449326063
axios.com/2024/04/03/us-global-venture-capital-q1
wsj.com/articles/university-endowments-mint-billions-in-golden-era-of-venture-capital-11632907802
natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1836178999178866766
snopes.com/fact-check/trump-very-fine-people
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1836516153893519867
#allin #tech #news
(2:19) Defining the polarizing forces in American society
(5:11) How institutions like the New York Times were captured by radicals, giving up "the heroin needle of prestige"
(16:39) Avoiding audience capture while building The Free Press
(22:09) Sacks's strategy to find reliable media sources
(27:26) Ideological capture of medicine, building a new institution
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https://x.com/yung_spielburg
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#allin #tech #news
(1:43) Joining Waymo, breaking down their approach vs competitors
(9:57) Focus on reducing deaths, impact on Uber, creating an AV ecosystem
(16:44) Thoughts on Cruise's issues in SF, operating at scale, unit economics
(22:09) Selling to carmakers, US focus vs international
(27:51) Hardest challenge while leading Waymo
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Referenced in the show:
#allin #tech #news
(2:22) How Ovitz got started in Hollywood
(10:06) Closing Palantir's first enterprise deal
(15:56) AI's impact on film and TV, how streaming killed Hollywood's business model
(23:11) Free speech and censorship in Hollywood, protecting creatives
(28:11) Can Hollywood be recaptured by the auteurs?
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(1:38) Leaving New York, Dave breaks down the 2016 Chernin deal
(6:42) Barstool's explosive growth after 2016, how Dave evaluates talent
(12:03) Breaking down the 2020 Penn deal
(18:56) Dave's persona, how he's received by both sides
(23:43) Thoughts on Trump and Kamala, moving forward as a society
(31:56) Buying Barstool back from Penn for $1, going Founder Mode, lessons from CPG launches
(42:41) Impact of sports betting, Dave's hot streak and gambling habits
(50:40) Caitlin Clark vs Angel Reese, how Clark is transcending the WNBA
(55:24) Is cancel culture over? Future of Barstool
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Referenced in the show:
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(1:10) What is the Deep State Party, and what are their goals?
(13:35) Should America leverage its power against dictators?
(21:45) The China threat: avoiding the escalatory path to nuclear war
(35:47) India's growing role; are China's wounds self-inflicted?
(46:45) Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace
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(2:32) Funding Shinya Yamanaka's research
(11:38) Marc on building philanthropy into Salesforce
(17:15) AI's impact on enterprise software and the cloud
(27:56) Salesforce's AI approach
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(1:03) Why he's not financially participating in the 2024 election
(6:53) US relationship with China, is defending Taiwan worth risking WW3?
(16:38) State of AI: Similar to the internet in 1999
(24:03) Innovation stagnation in the US
(29:42) Thoughts on the current state of the US economy
(32:50) The higher education bubble
(39:09) Who will win AI, Nvidia's monopoly position going forward
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(1:19) Succeeding as an independent media personality
(8:11) Thoughts on trans issues
(15:30) Handicapping Trump's chances in 2024 vs 2016 and Kamala Harris compared to Hillary Clinton
(24:05) Thoughts on legal action against Trump
(30:10) How politicians have changed; improving life in America through community
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(2:27) What Travis is working on at Cloud Kitchens
(12:32) Travis's operating playbook
(16:16) Strategy at Uber: Competing with Lyft, surge pricing, dealing with bad press
(26:12) Being a "War time CEO" and competing in China
(34:09) Travis reflects on getting ousted as CEO of Uber and his future
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(1:41) What Sergey is working on at Google
(5:45) Is Google chasing a "God Model"?
(8:49) Thoughts on the massive AI chip buildout
(12:54) Future of human-AI interaction
(14:58) Changing Google's conservative product culture
(18:21) Is the "Race to AGI" overblown?
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(4:01) The Battle of Free Speech
(13:03) Potential government efficiency agency
(30:23) SpaceX updates, overreaching regulations
(38:48) Thoughts on Boeing's culture
(41:05) The 80/20 AI Future
(56:41) Elon and Jason share unaired SNL skits
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(3:15) America's innovation problem
(4:46) Thoughts on Trump
(8:35) Would JD Vance have certified the election in 2020?
(11:44) Increasing government efficiency, shrinking the deficit, Vance's role as VP, thoughts on EOs
(19:17) Political realignment: Dick Cheney endorses Kamala Harris, winners and losers of the last 30 years
(23:40) Thoughts on Lina Khan clamping down on tech M&A and her impact on the startup ecosystem
(25:37) Fixing the Southern Border
(31:58) How to practically approach deportations, who's coming in through the Southern Border?
(36:33) Relationship with China
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(1:03) All-In Summit lineup announcement
(9:01) Understanding "Founder Mode"
(32:52) Bolt is back in the news as Ryan Breslow goes "Founder Mode"
(52:28) Tech's Section 230 protections might be in danger after new ruling
(1:08:45) DOJ charges two Russians with infiltrating US media company
(1:22:42) Kamala's economic pivot
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Referenced in the show:
paulgraham.com/foundermode.html
https://x.com/chamath/status/1831003871344501069
google.com/finance/quote/PANW:NASDAQ
a16z.com/on-micromanagement
amazon.com/gp/product/0679762884
google.com/finance/quote/ABNB:NASDAQ
amazon.com/Five-Dysfunctions-Team-Leadership-Fable/dp/0787960756
techcrunch.com/2022/01/14/online-checkout-bolt-decacorn
businessinsider.com/bolt-ceo-calls-stripe-ycombinator-mob-bosses-twitter-silicon-valley-2022-1
paymentsdive.com/news/bolt-ceo-ryan-breslow-steps-down/618058
nytimes.com/2022/05/10/business/bolt-start-up-ryan-breslow-investors.html
techcrunch.com/2023/07/21/bolt-ex-ceo-ryan-breslow-subject-of-sec-probe
techcrunch.com/2023/10/06/bolt-ceo-discusses-moving-on-after-sec-probe
theinformation.com/articles/bolt-once-worth-11-billion-slashes-price-97-in-buyback?rc=pxkrxo
axios.com/2024/08/22/bolt-investors-baffled
https://x.com/MikeSacksEsq/status/1828795866590896599
bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-11-30/is-tiktok-responsible-if-kids-die-doing-dangerous-viral-challenges
youtube.com/watch?v=0JTcxIVlQfU
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1830440852411326782
justice.gov/opa/pr/two-rt-employees-indicted-covertly-funding-and-directing-us-company-published-thousands
justice.gov/opa/media/1366266/dl
axios.com/2024/09/05/putin-harris-trump-2024-election-russia-interference
cnn.com/2020/07/30/tech/2020-election-russia-disinformation/index.html
natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
liberalpatriot.com/p/the-rise-of-vince-lombardi-democrats
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(1:48) Reid Hoffman joins the show, reminiscing on PayPal stories with Sacks
(7:52) State of AI: Nvidia, cluster buildouts, competition
(19:51) OpenAI's corporate structure and thoughts on Elon's lawsuit
(29:09) Inflection AI's deal structure with Microsoft, Lina Khan's impact on the tech industry
(41:27) Reid's perspective on Kamala being hot swapped for Biden, funding groups that attempted to keep RFK Jr. off ballots
(52:02) Reid's thoughts on growing antisemitism
(55:03) Thoughts on Kamala's economic proposals: price caps, wealth tax, etc.
(1:04:19) How Silicon Valley views both candidates, why Reid funded legal action against Trump
(1:19:03) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joins the show and recaps his campaign and decision to back Trump
(1:31:13) Falling out with the Democratic Party
(1:37:26) Potential role in the Trump Administration, Make America Healthy Again agenda
(1:58:01) Sacks recaps RFK Jr's campaign, RFK Jr. on Trump's legacy
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Referenced in the show:
nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2025
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gavin-baker-ai-semiconductors-and-the-robotic-frontier/id1154105909?i=1000666758592
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(1:59) Labor department revises down nonfarm payrolls by 818K
(15:02) MIT publishes data from first incoming class post race-based admissions ban
(36:16) Decision 2024: State of the race, Polls vs prediction markets
(52:33) Tale of two tickets: Private sector vs. Public sector
(1:05:19) Kamala Harris supports Biden's tax plans, including a 25% wealth tax on those with more than $100M in assets
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Referenced in the show:
cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1826290040374243821
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1664788807059660800
statista.com/statistics/269959/employment-in-the-united-states
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
polymarket.com/event/fed-interest-rates-september-2024?tid=1724345228774
https://x.com/chamath/status/1826360792351957141
nytimes.com/2018/06/15/us/harvard-asian-enrollment-applicants.html
natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1826469365069271419
blockworks.co/news/polymarket-july-all-time-high-trading-volumes
semafor.com/article/08/19/2024/harris-camp-signals-it-backs-biden-bid-to-raise-taxes-on-wealthy-corporations
wsj.com/livecoverage/dnc-election-2024-harris-walz/card/harris-backs-tax-increases-proposed-by-biden-pkuLeYl6f1kXrhN4kWgQ
crfb.org/blogs/kamala-harris-agenda-lower-costs-american-families
home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/General-Explanations-FY2024.pdf
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(5:27) DOJ considers breaking up Google after last week's antitrust ruling
(28:10) Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle chief
(45:37) Work culture, WFH's damage to informal mentorship
(59:20) Election update: Harris flips the polls despite unclear policy; reports of price control focus
(1:21:27) Boeing's Starliner disaster strands two astronauts in space
(1:33:54) Russia/Ukraine update: Ukraine wins land in Kursk, Nordstream report
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Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/harry_schuh/status/1822030518038491400
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-13/doj-considers-seeking-google-goog-breakup-after-major-antitrust-win
wsj.com/business/starbucks-replaces-ceo-as-activist-investors-push-for-changes-43c33bff
s203.q4cdn.com/326826266/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/Q3-FY24-Earnings-at-a-Glance.pdf
fortune.com/2024/08/13/starbucks-shares-jump-20-after-company-poaches-chipotle-ceo-brian-niccol-chipotle-falls-9
cafexapp.com
google.com/finance/quote/CMG:NYSE
wsj.com/articles/low-wage-workers-climb-the-earnings-ladder-20acd8af
youtube.com/watch?v=mzLCpmRad5o
finance.yahoo.com/news/nearly-half-dell-full-time-215348261.html
https://x.com/Jason/status/1823826884112867609
natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://x.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1823913395986305342
npr.org/2024/08/08/nx-s1-5068668/vance-walz-stolen-valor-military-record
abcnews.go.com/Politics/walzs-military-record-vances-accusations-stolen-valor/story?id=112618991
washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/15/kamala-harris-economic-policy-2024
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-15/harris-will-propose-price-gouging-ban-on-food-and-groceries
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_Inflation_Now
google.com/finance/quote/WMT:NYSE
wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harriss-economic-team-and-agenda-start-to-take-shape-7682e539
time.com/7009317/reintroduction-of-kamala-harris
https://x.com/TIME/status/1822951410956218385
axios.com/2024/08/11/kamala-harris-trump-taxes-tips-service-workers
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-15/harris-will-propose-price-gouging-ban-on-food-and-groceries
socialcapital.com/ideas/2019-annual-letter
google.com/finance/quote/BA:NYSE
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/15/kamala-harris-price-gouging-groceries
azquotes.com/quote/1413855
washingtonpost.com/business/2024/07/26/boeing-starliner-astronauts-stuck-orbit-space-station
spacenews.com/41891nasa-selects-boeing-and-spacex-for-commercial-crew-contracts
newatlas.com/space/first-manned-crew-dragon-flight-date
qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-26d9f1dddb4d24469b593b28f40d277b-lq
spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/02/boeing-nears-fix-for-cst-100-starliner-design-hitch
spacenews.com/crewed-starliner-test-flight-could-slip-to-2019
spaceflightnow.com/2020/02/28/boeing-says-thorough-testing-would-have-caught-starliner-software-problems
spaceflightnow.com/2021/08/19/boeings-starliner-spacecraft-returns-to-processing-facility-for-valve-work
boeing.com/space/starliner/launch/archive.html
boeing.mediaroom.com/2024-06-05-Boeing-Starliner-Spacecraft-Completes-Successful-Launch
boeing.mediaroom.com/2024-06-05-Boeing-Starliner-Spacecraft-Completes-Successful-Launch
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/27/nord-stream-gas-pipelines-damage-russia
wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c
washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/03/nord-stream-bombing-yacht-andromeda
seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8
youtube.com/watch?v=ild-PsPD_Uw
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(3:55) Yen carry trade unravels, Japan's unique economic issues
(27:22) Recession odds growing, is the US already in a "lowkey recession"?
(45:46) Why Buffett is selling Apple and massively increasing Berkshire's cash position
(55:54) Major antitrust ruling against Google, predicting outcomes
(1:22:41) Kamala picks Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate
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Referenced in the show:
wsj.com/health/wellness/covid-guidelines-2024-cdc-symptoms-contagious-cdefb6b8
tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate
pebblewriter.com/the-yen-carry-trade-explained
statista.com/statistics/604424/median-age-of-the-population-in-japan
reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-nov-core-consumer-inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high-2022-12-22
https://x.com/GoldmanSachs/status/1793998451291615316
wsj.com/economy/central-banking/boj-wont-raise-rates-when-markets-are-unstable-deputy-gov-says-6f4bf962
cnbc.com/2024/03/01/the-us-national-debt-is-rising-by-1-trillion-about-every-100-days.html
wsj.com/finance/the-u-s-government-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-payments-than-defense-ee6fbeec
nytimes.com/2024/07/10/business/archegos-bill-hwang-guilty.html
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/jpmorgan-says-three-quarters-of-global-carry-trades-now-unwound
cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job-growth-totals-114000-in-july-much-less-than-expected-as-unemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year
google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX
google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA
google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ
wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-08-07-2024/card/airbnb-stock-slides-after-rental-company-warns-of-slowing-u-s-demand-inf2c6emjcl5KI7KmkfR
google.com/finance/quote/ABNB:NASDAQ
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1799085407394845087
forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2024/02/15/warren-buffett-bolsters-chevron-stake-revealing-key-q4-moves
google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ
ft.com/content/2aa3b542-d4e4-4afb-8d81-89bb734d7b17
documentcloud.org/documents/25032786-googleruling
https://x.com/Jason/status/1820823406503157764
https://x.com/chamath/status/1817893425137508474
vox.com/2018/10/31/18039528/tech-employees-politics-liberal-employers-candidates
natesilver.net/p/tim-walz-is-a-minnesota-nice-choice
https://x.com/NickFondacaro/status/1820840411335737852
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820918063966962143
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/06/politics/tim-walz-inside-harris-vp-pick
nytimes.com/2024/08/07/us/politics/vance-walz-military-record.html
https://x.com/PokerGO/status/1818836856890704291
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Now, that group has cracked and the market is in a free fall.
If you've been listening to All-In, you saw this coming.
Let's walk through it:
1) Berkshire Sours on Apple: Chamath's Analysis of Buffett's Annual Letter
Chamath on March 8th: "You can tell when (Warren) Buffett has gotten disengaged with a company based on the number of times he mentions it in his annual letter."
"I think this 'Buffett Index' is a really important one for Apple, which is, it went from a forever holding to barely getting mentioned."
"Unfortunately, it speaks for a very bad next 5-10 years for this company unless they figure something out."
2) The AI Bubble: Massive Spend with No Revenue = Recipe for Disaster
Chamath on May 31st: "If you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending $26B/quarter, the market cap of Nvidia is not what the market cap of Nvidia should be."
"And all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money."
"Where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies the $100B of chips spend/year, $200B of energy spend, $100B of all this other stuff?"
"And we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic somebody's voice. It doesn't all hang together yet."
3) The Underlying Recession: The Mag 7 Shielded the Market from a Bad Economy… Until They Didn’t
Chamath on July 12th: "I think the bigger question, though, is if we are on the verge of a real contraction in the economy."
"Even though the stock market for seven companies is hitting all-time highs, the stock market for every other company that isn't those seven companies have not."
"People are unemployed, there is no money, and the question is whether you have some sort of contraction economically that is measured by a recession or not."
"People have been tracking the S&P 500 Index versus the equal-weighted index."
"And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000 right before dot-com crash"
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(0:38) Election update: Dems energize around Kamala, policy questions remain
(19:33) Trump's NABJ interview: smart or risky?
(33:07) Markets expect rate cut in September, but are we already in a recession?
(40:58) AI buildout causing short-term volatility
(45:46) Assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh: are we inching closer to war in the Middle East?
(1:06:17) Bill Ackman withdraws Pershing Square USA IPO
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Referenced in the show:
natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
foxnews.com/politics/harris-boycotts-netanyahu-snubs-israeli-leaders-wartime-address-give-sorority-speech
nypost.com/2024/07/24/us-news/media-change-tune-on-calling-kamala-harris-border-czar-despite-giving-her-the-title
https://x.com/jeffstorobinsky/status/1818722254542590012
apnews.com/business/inflation-general-news-31d83873be23c658d66526745482d572
https://x.com/grdecter/status/1819362069797654784
wsj.com/economy/consumers/inflation-interest-rates-wealth-loans-51d4276e
foxbusiness.com/economy/initial-us-employment-reports-overstated-jobs
foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/q1-gdp-slows-inflation-dips
finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-stock-jumps-after-earnings-beat-driven-by-ai-chip-sales-202456320.html
cnbc.com/2024/07/31/nvidia-stock-up-after-microsoft-amd-quell-fears-ai-buildout-too-fast.html
ft.com/content/bad6ca0b-82fb-4ddb-b6b8-bd09dacd47ae
google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ
nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html
archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/how-a-secret-cyberwar-program-worked.html?hp
wsj.com/finance/investing/bill-ackman-pulls-investment-fund-ipo-after-shrinking-its-size-85ba1a17
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#allin #tech #news
Subscribe: youtube.com/@allin?sub_confirmation=1
Follow the besties:
twitter.com/chamath
twitter.com/Jason
twitter.com/DavidSacks
twitter.com/friedberg
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Referenced in the show:
#allin #tech #news