The BTC/ETH ETF Flows Are Just Getting Started | Matt Hougan Blockworks Macro 2024-10-17 | In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss BTC vs ETH ETF flows, the biggest ETF misconceptions, and the importance of regulatory clarity. We also delve into the value of incorporating BTC in a portfolio, future crypto ETF strategies, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_HouganFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:51 BTC vs ETH ETFs03:18 Success of BTC ETFs04:28 Marginal Buyers of Crypto ETFs06:49 Lackluster ETH ETF Flows08:45 Surprise ETH ETF Approval09:56 Value Proposition of Ethereum12:41 Sacrificing ETH Utility in ETF Wrapper13:55 Crypto ETF Options18:38 The Future of Crypto ETFs21:51 Bitwise Filing Process23:27 Biggest ETF Misconceptions26:17 Advertisements27:32 Compliance Process29:43 Election & Regulation33:18 Regulatory Clarity36:03 Incorporating Bitcoin Into A Portfolio40:00 Gold vs BTC42:10 Crypto Market Forecasts44:29 Learn More About Matt & Bitwise—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Debating The Election’s Impact On Markets | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-10-19 | This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceForward Guidance Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Weekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:42 Economy is Doing Well05:09 Earnings vs Economic Data08:29 Actionable Market Ideas11:38 Election & Trump Trades18:46 Small Caps & Gold21:34 Bitcoin & Microstrategy24:45 Contrarian Gold Take27:52 Trump Trade Hedges29:19 Fed Rate Cutting Path33:07 Economic Growth Under Trump38:12 Volatility & Election Hedging41:50 Measuring Hard & Soft Landings45:52 Economy Under Biden/Harris49:45 AI & The Future Economy—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer Blockworks Macro 2024-10-16 | In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy!__Follow Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacroFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceForward Guidance Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:40 Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities06:38 Win-Win for Equities09:59 Election & Trump Trades13:48 A Trader's Market17:07 Fed & Macro20:09 Bond Yields & Volatility22:56 Market Sentiment Push & Pull25:09 Oil & Geopolitics30:31 Gold Market35:29 Precious & Base Metals37:57 FX Market39:04 Bitcoin & Crypto41:28 What Would Make Tony Bearish?43:03 Tony's Work__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Economy is in Goldilocks | Ram Ahluwalia Blockworks Macro 2024-10-15 | In this episode, Ram Ahluwalia joins the show to discuss his macro view of markets, why he thinks we’re in goldilocks, and his thought process for asset allocation. We also delve into NVIDIA and AI, factor investing, and the role of risk-adjusted returns. Enjoy!—Follo Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwaliaFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:56 Ram & Lumida Wealth02:32 Macro Overview05:54 50 Bps Cut Was a Mistake07:19 Economic Goldilocks11:27 Fed Mandate12:33 Cutting Cycle Path14:32 The Neutral Rate & Animal Spirits17:05 Election Impact on Markets18:55 Advertisements20:11 Asset Allocation Strategies25:27 NVIDIA & AI28:55 Factor Investing33:09 Mathematical Model Shortfalls35:53 Risk-Adjusted Returns39:24 Digital Asset Framework45:40 Market Outlook—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
What is Macro Telling Us? | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-10-12 | This week we sat down at Permissionless to discuss the latest CPI and labor market data, the likely noise in the upcoming labor data, and the impact of coordinated central banking. We also delve into the election, its potential impact on crypto, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceForward Guidance Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:26 Inflation & Labor Market Data06:03 Inflation Mechanics10:13 Labor Market Noise14:13 Coordinated Central Banking19:26 Bifurcated Economy23:45 Is Macro Bullish or Bearish?30:11 Crypto & the Election36:18 Bitcoin Outlook & Final Thoughts—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Great BTC ETF Debate: Bearish or Bullish? Blockworks Macro 2024-10-11 | In this episode, Jim Bianco and James Seyffart join Felix at Permissionless to discuss who has been buying the BTC ETFs, whether ETFs are consistent with crypto ideals, and why the BTC ETFs were more successful than the ETH ETFs. We also delve into the difference between buying to hold and arbitrage, BTC ETF options, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Jim Bianco: https://x.com/biancoresearchFollow James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyffFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:49 Have Bitcoin ETFs Been A Success?02:27 Who is Buying Bitcoin ETFs?06:58 Are ETFs Consistent with Crypto Ideals?11:13 Basis Trade vs Holding15:46 Advertisements17:21 ETH ETFs vs BTC ETFs22:08 Bitcoin ETF Options26:59 Crypto Ideals at Risk?—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream Blockworks Macro 2024-10-09 | In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto.—Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyzFollow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelmanFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPodFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceForward Guidance Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:20 Oil Market & Geopolitics05:39 Macro's Role In Crypto Markets08:41 Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto14:00 Bitcoin & Interest Rates21:18 The Forward Guidance Regime25:00 Econonic Growth vs Stimulus27:57 Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto30:49 Economic Uncertainty33:57 Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity36:37 The Fed's Credibility40:19 Economic Bifurcation45:10 History of Asset Bubbles46:48 Generational Wealth51:02 Price Predictions—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Stellar Jobs Report Sends Recession Odds Spiraling | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-10-05 | This week we discuss the latest bullish jobs report, the impact of globally-coordinated easing, and the Middle East's impact on markets. We also delve into the recent SOFR explosion, election pricing in markets, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceForward Guidance Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Weekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/file/d/1S24tXpteiZg1jilfU8aXk0L_NtXFLXVg/view?usp=drive_link—Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:34 Non-Farm Payrolls10:59 Fixed Income & High Yield12:43 Global Coordinated Easing Cycle16:20 US Dollar & US Exceptionalism18:52 Global Easing Driving Growth & Liquidity22:08 The Big Picture26:32 Permissionless Ad27:11 Oil, Gold, & the Middle East31:37 Global Collateral Shift33:19 Middle East Tail Risk36:23 SOFR Explosion & QT42:09 Simplifying Macro Trading45:25 Economic Politics48:28 Crypto Markets50:31 Election Pricing in Markets55:56 Permissionless Next Week—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman Blockworks Macro 2024-10-02 | In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!__Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMavenCheck out Harley’s website: convexitymaven.comFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks___Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:54 Implied Forward Rates03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate26:11 The Fed's Master Plan29:43 Permissionless Ad30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?35:19 Labor Market & Immigration38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt42:03 Market Opportunities44:33 Equities & Rates47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Chinas Liquidity Impulse, A Turning Point For Markets | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-09-27 | This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Weekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link—Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:14 China & Economic Stimulus08:11 The World is Changing12:26 Oil Market15:45 Unpacking the Labor Market23:27 Permissionless Ad24:04 Interview Continues25:15 Central Bank Politics27:16 GDP & GDI32:26 Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples38:26 Things to be Worried About45:40 Main Takeaways—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Last Bitcoin Cycle That Matters | Charles Edwards Blockworks Macro 2024-09-26 | In this episode, Charles Edwards joins the show to discuss why the current cycle is the last that will matter, the impact of Bitcoin ETFs, and what the on-chain data is signaling. We also delve into the approval of options on the IBIT ETF, the key top signals, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Charles Edwards: https://x.com/caprioleioFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_On The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin—Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io—Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:04 Macro Overview03:54 Soft Landing vs Hard Landing06:09 Bitcoin Seasonality09:22 Current Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics12:57 Bitcoin Macro Index14:41 Future Bitcoin Cycles Won't Matter17:10 On-chain Data19:50 Bitcoin ETFs23:09 Ads24:23 Interview Continues27:38 Impact of IBIT Options29:05 Financialization vs the Bitcoin Ethos31:53 The Bitcoin Endgame34:44 Leverage & Funding Rates38:35 Top Signals—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Slowing But Growing: Why The U.S. Isn’t Headed For Recession | Prometheus Research Blockworks Macro 2024-09-24 | In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy!__Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacroFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks___Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:17 The Prometheus Macro Framework04:56 GDP & Economic Growth14:11 Interest & Payment Expense16:17 Exports17:33 Putting the GDP Components Together19:24 Corporate Profits & Savings Rates23:31 Manufacturing Sector30:31 The Business Cycle35:03 The Labor Market & Recession Indicators38:21 Inflation40:25 Liquidity Breakdown53:44 Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy56:42 Prometheus Research__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-09-21 | This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96Follow Monetary Matters: youtube.com/@Monetary-MattersFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_—Weekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link —Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:14 FOMC Victory Lap03:38 Quinn's Framework06:11 Bullish Rate Cut?09:30 Summary of Economic Projections14:32 Bullish Market Signals18:05 The World Trade21:09 Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle24:30 Market Sentiment & Credit Risk27:50 Private Credit29:55 Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt31:43 Permissionless Ad32:23 Fiscal Super Cycle34:09 Energy, Commodities, & AI37:13 Economic Expectations39:50 Reconciling Recession Calls44:35 The Market Gives Something for Everyone50:38 Oil Market & Liquidity53:32 The Banana Zone58:58 Monetary Matters01:01:09 Balancing Market Views—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Fed’s Dilemma: Deflationary Cliff Or Debt Spiral | James Lavish Blockworks Macro 2024-09-19 | In this episode, James and Felix discuss the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the impact of quantitative easing & tightening, and the consequences of trillion-dollar annual deficits. We also delve into the repo market, why the Fed is disconnected from inflation, the role of hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, and much more. Enjoy!—Follow James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavishFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks_On The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin—Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io—Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:11 Unpacking The Fed Decision & Dual Mandate12:53 Quantitative Easing & Tightening18:24 2019 Repo Spike & Dollar Shortage24:39 Trillion-Dollar Annual Deficits36:22 Advertisements37:36 Why The Fed is Disconnected from Inflation44:47 Is Bitcoin the Solution?48:46 Gold & Bitcoin As Stores of Value53:13 Permissionless Ad53:54 Bitcoin Use Case For Global Sovereigns58:58 Where to Follow James' Work—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Fed Is Easing Into Major Regime Shift | Darius Dale Blockworks Macro 2024-09-17 | This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy!__Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/Blockworks___Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii—Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:39 Overview of the Economy03:40 Recession vs Normalization06:46 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut11:15 Are We Price For Recession?13:48 Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts20:41 The Recessionistas Are Wrong26:47 The Fiscal Impulse29:53 Trend of US Growth32:00 Permissionless Ad32:40 The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials41:29 Chinese Economy45:30 Asset Allocation__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Fed Cutting Cycle Imminent, Whats Next for Markets? | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-09-14 | This week we discuss the split odds between a 25 and 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, market cutting cycle dynamics, and the rotation from growth to value. We also delve into the latest inflation data, rising labor productivity, and the outlook for crypto Enjoy!–Follow Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwaliaFollow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin–Weekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XMVpZ672sX1qJV-admNYvznOPFXR737S–Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii–Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:22 Ram's Background03:26 25 Bps vs 50 Bps08:42 Inflation Data11:01 The Economy Is Okay12:36 Fed Opening the Door to 50 Bps Cut16:08 Parsing the Economic Data18:12 Labor Productivity20:27 Ads21:44 Chinese Economy & Red Flags28:08 US Equities32:02 Growth Vs Value34:31 Factor Market36:34 Market Rotation44:24 Permissionless Ad45:02 Narratives Driving Markets48:21 Digital Assets54:49 Bitcoin & Crypto Price Action59:05 Hot Money Rotation01:00:37 Cutting Cycle Dynamics–Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
China’s “Balance Sheet Recession” Has Already Started | Richard Koo Blockworks Macro 2024-09-13 | Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: youtube.com/@Monetary-MattersFelix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_incRichard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948__Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:51 What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?09:39 Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 200816:28 China's Balance Sheet Recession26:26 Savings And Bank Credit In China34:07 Permissionless Ad35:07 China's Trade Surplus39:02 China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It46:15 The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo01:02:40 Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Finding Hidden Gems In Credit Markets | CDO Whisperer Brett Jefferson Blockworks Macro 2024-09-12 | This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024.Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_incJack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters__Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:59 Trust Preferred CDOs08:44 Starting Hildene Capital Management10:44 Buying Trust Preferred CDOs13:22 Deferred Payments20:13 Trust Preferreds Regulated Out23:15 Philadelphia Fed Paper27:38 Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets34:33 Private Credit37:55 Hildene's Market Niche44:11 The Structured Credit Market51:44 Structured Security Correlations55:20 Credit Market Risks01:00:00 The Realities Of Private Credit01:08:27 TruPS CDOs01:11:03 Private Credit CLO Market01:14:48 Risks & Rewards01:18:58 Collateralized Loan Market Performance01:25:28 Closing__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell Blockworks Macro 2024-09-12 | In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy!–Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustinFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemarginNYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf–MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii–Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:46) Austin's Background(03:21) Unpacking the Banking System(06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo(10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking(14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves(22:00) What is Crypto Solving?(27:33) Mantra Ad(28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization(32:34) CBDCs(36:41) Blockchains vs Databases(40:06) Permissionless Ad(40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony(44:52) Backlash to Crypto(47:46) Crypto Market Outlook–Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Why Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Shined While Most Bonds Suffered | Laila Kollmorgen Blockworks Macro 2024-09-11 | Laila Kollmorgen, Portfolio Manager, CLO Tranche for Pinebridge Investments, joins Jack for a Fireside Chat on Forward Guidance to discuss why collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have rallied so much over the past two years as most of the fixed-income world has suffered enormously. Laila explains why she likes the structure of CLOs and why she thinks there will be an opportunity to be selective going forward as credit fundamentals begin to soften and valuations have increased. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.__Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usLaila Kollmorgen’s articles on Pinebridge:pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shiftpinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shiftpinebridge.com/en/insights/leveraged-finance-asset-allocation-insights-issuer-selection-is-key-as-loansFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:15 What Is A Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)?05:37 CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) vs. CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations): How CLOs Fared Much Better Than CDOs During The Great Financial Crisis13:13 Market Value CDOs and CLO Reinvestment Periods19:45 Why CLOs Have Performed So Well24:54 If Silicon Valley Bank Had Invested In CLOs Instead of Long-Duration Paper (Agency MBS & Treasurys), Perhaps They Would Still Be Around!35:26 CLO Valuations And Laila's Base Case For CLOs As Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Is About To Begin41:21 Have Economic Fundamentals Begun To Soften?43:37 Refinancing Risk (i.e. if CLO Manager Pays Off Tranche Liabilities At Par To Refinance At Tighter Spread)46:32 Some CLO Investors Were Buying Callable Paper Above Part (Greater than 100)! (That's "Crazy" Says Kollmorgen)51:59 The Maturity Wall For High Yield and Corporate Credit Has Been Extended56:13 How Might Various Tranches Of CLO Asset Class Perform In A Recession?59:41 Risk of Default and Risk of Distressed Sales01:03:53 Views On Liquidity and Volatility01:09:04 Not A Huge Fan of Private Credit CLOs01:13:37 Thoughts on "Creditor on Creditor Violence"01:17:10 Red Flags to Avoid In CLO World__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor befor
Bitcoins Path To $3 Million Dollars | Matthew Sigel Blockworks Macro 2024-09-10 | This interview with Matthew Sigel explores the bull case for bitcoin, its future as a reserve asset, and the economics of bitcoin miners. We also discuss miners pivoting to data centers, stablecoins, crypto regulation and much more. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on September 4, 2024.Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin Miners' AI Arbitrage Play to Boost Revenue": vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-miners-ai-arbitrage-play-to-boost-revenueSigel's piece, "Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset": vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset__Follow Matthew Sigel on Twitter https://x.com/matthew_sigelFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:53 How Matthew Got Into Crypto05:10 Fake & Bias News In Finance07:51 The Case For Bitcoin10:48 Bitcoin As A Reserve Asset18:33 Nation States Leveraging Bitcoin22:40 Profitability Of Bitcoin Mining24:22 Catalysts For Bitcoin Adoption26:52 Bitcoin As A Medium Of Exchange28:42 Bitcoin Risks33:34 Is The Bitcoin Supply Flexible?35:08 Bitcoin Miner Economics41:02 Bitcoin Miners Repurposing Their Energy46:31 Bitcoin Vs Altcoins53:53 Biggest Crypto Overweights & Underweights58:09 Stablecoins01:05:19 Crypto Politics & Regulation01:07:40 NFTs01:09:41 Meme Coins01:12:26 Understanding The Spectrum Of Crypto01:14:57 Crypto Venture Capital__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Fed Easing Will Match Weakness In The Labor Market | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-09-07 | This week we discuss the soft jobs report and how it compares to the other data, the state of the yield curve and credit markets, and how China is bringing down commodities. We also delve into AI centralization, the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto, and much more. Enjoy!–Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin–Weekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/file/d/1GnXSyf79KLMoG5p0RRFoNBoAQUet_TOE/view?usp=sharing–Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii–Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:37 Non-Farm Payrolls09:52 Comparing Other Labor Market Data12:47 The Fed's Reaction Function17:54 The Yield Curve Uninverting19:13 Credit Spreads & Equity Rotation25:54 Buy What The Government Is Incentivizing28:34 Advertisements29:48 Tyler's AI Rant33:25 What's Going On In China?39:30 Flight From China41:52 Permissionless Ad42:32 Crypto Market Update44:54 The Effects Of Rate Cuts47:13 Bitcoin Downside & Outlook__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Gold Stocks Are Undervalued | Imaru Casanova (VanEck Fireside Chat #4) Blockworks Macro 2024-09-06 | Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.__Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usImaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:24 The New Bull Market In Gold06:32 Investing In Gold Companies09:14 How To Value A Gold Company16:38 Cash Flow vs. Earnings?19:25 Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices22:51 Specific Gold Mining Stocks25:36 Managing Jurisdictional Risk36:54 Thinking About Depreciation40:04 Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies44:38 Gold Royalty Companies52:06 Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects58:32 Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews Blockworks Macro 2024-09-05 | This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more.__Follow Jonny Mathews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macroSubscribe to Super Macro at super-macro.comFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:45 Are We Headed For A Recession?03:09 Income Growth Is Driving Consumption05:45 Household Savings07:44 Unemployment Will Moderate15:40 Credit Markets19:48 Permissionless Ad20:48 Job Market Revisions23:47 Opportunities In Fixed Income27:32 Trading Interest Rates30:53 Will Inflation Continue To Fall?35:42 Labor Market Data39:31 Opportunities In The UK50:30 Home Run Trades52:55 The Gold Market55:33 China Outlook01:01:24 S&P 500 Earnings01:05:29 AI & Productivity01:09:29 Super Macro Note01:12:05 Jonny's Trading Experience01:18:13 Stocks Over Bonds01:20:27 Cumulative Personal Savings__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
The Labor Market Is Cooling | Talmon Smith & Jack Farley Blockworks Macro 2024-09-05 | This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more.__Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmithLatest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smithAbout Camp Kotok cumber.com/about/camp-kotokLeen’s Lodge: leenslodge.comFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:33 The Soft Landing Is In View08:28 Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not17:26 Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency18:53 Permissionless Ad19:51 Interview Continues26:42 The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong37:00 Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself42:37 The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields?49:48 Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money?01:27:10 Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein Blockworks Macro 2024-09-04 | In this episode, Eric Wallerstein joins the show to discuss why the labor market is cooling (not crashing), the decline in the personal savings rate, and increasing labor productivity. We also break down GDP, the credit markets, and how to rethink asset allocation in today's market. Enjoy!–Follow Eric Wallerstein: https://x.com/ericwallersteinYardeni QuickTakes: yardeniquicktakes.comFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin–MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii–Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:14 Eric's Background03:07 The Labor Market Is Okay08:17 Why The Fed Is So Dovish11:08 Consumer Savings14:22 Real Wages16:53 Labor Productivity20:38 Breaking Down GDP24:08 Economic Big Picture26:46 Mantra Ad27:25 Risks To The Consumer29:52 The Fed Doesn't Need To Cut33:34 Private Credit Markets37:08 The Fed Supporting Credit Markets39:17 Bond Markets41:54 Stock & Bond Correlations44:10 Rethinking Asset Allocation46:22 Permissionless Ad47:02 Global Markets & The Carry Trade Unwind49:36 Chinese Economy52:15 Europe Doesn't Issue Debt55:31 Key Takeaways–Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-08-31 | This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!--On the Margin Survey: on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b--Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemarginWeekly Roundup Charts: drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link Kansas Fed Paper: kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf –Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-startedMANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:27 NVIDIA Earnings08:12 Growth Vs Value11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth14:02 Yield Curve Steepening17:40 High Yield Spreads19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession23:00 The Health Of The Consumer29:59 Advertisements31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility38:57 Central Bank Independence41:18 Permissionless Ad41:57 A Weaker US Dollar44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
India Is The Most Promising Emerging Market | Angus Shillington Blockworks Macro 2024-08-29 | This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024.__Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingtoFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:18 Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing01:19 GDP Vs Equity Performance06:16 Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities10:14 Chinese Real Estate market11:54 Most Promising Emerging Market18:28 How India's Market Improved22:57 How India Companies Fund Themselves24:29 India's Favorable Demographics30:01 Best Performing Industries In India33:09 India Inflation35:31 India's Imports & Exports36:50 Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations45:58 Indian Investment Goals49:00 Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector53:54 TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market01:10:01 Does ASML Have A Monopoly01:12:26 Most & Least Favorable EMs__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell Blockworks Macro 2024-08-28 | In this episode, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to discuss the uptrend in global liquidity, a possible Shanghai Accord 2 to weaken the dollar, and the relationship between debt and liquidity. We also discuss the real breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve, and why you need monetary inflation hedges. Enjoy!--Follow Michael Howell: https://x.com/crossbordercapFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:18 Powell's Jackson Hole Speech04:20 Uptrend In Global Liquidity05:53 Global Risk Exposure12:10 A New Shanghai Accord18:44 Mantra Ad19:24 Mechanics Of Yen Intervention22:01 The Treasury Market30:20 Breakeven Inflation Rates32:56 Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio35:52 Permissionless Ad36:33 US Public Debt40:14 Monetary Inflation Hedges43:11 Managing Bill Issuance47:03 Bull Vs Bear Steepener48:50 The Structure Of Global Liquidity50:08 The MOVE Index53:49 Treasury Buybacks55:06 Real Interest Rates56:38 Equity Market & PBOC Liquidity59:37 More Upside In Gold & BTC--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Markets Will Get A Deficit President No Matter What | Jim Bianco & Jeremy Schwartz Blockworks Macro 2024-08-27 | This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds.__Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearchFollow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartzFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:48 Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy02:58 The Fed & Interest Rates03:55 Unemployment & The Sahm Rule06:57 Is Inflation Coming Down?08:33 Real Interest Rates11:05 What Is The Neutral Rate?14:21 The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle18:41 Election Insights20:55 Deficits Are The Key Issue23:11 Will Stocks Outperform Bonds?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Chinas Problems Are The Worlds Problems | Michael Drury Blockworks Macro 2024-08-26 | This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more.–Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:31 The Risks Of Financialization02:07 Financial Market Signals05:37 China & The Global Economy09:44 China's Problems Are The World's Problem15:15 US Economic Resilience21:07 How Good Is The US Economy?27:11 Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities30:28 Comparing Major Economies37:18 China's Economic Advantages40:44 Where China Spends Its Money49:44 China's Growing Influence53:01 The US Economy & Inflation01:10:31 European Economy01:11:58 Asian Economies01:14:48 Camp Kotok__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
The Fed Put Is In & Global Easing Has Begun | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-08-24 | This week we discuss Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, employment outweighing inflation, and Kamala Harris’ newly-proposed economic policies. We also dive into the credit markets, crypto regulation, and altcoins. Enjoy!--On the Margin Survey: on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014bRoundup Chart Deck: blckwrks.co/4dUUAj5--Follow Zaheer: https://x.com/SplitCapitalFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin–Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:13 Jackson Hole Speech08:17 Employment Outweighing Inflation09:33 Zaheer's Macro View11:18 Housing Comback13:49 Polkadot Ad14:26 Global Liquidity18:01 Credit Isn't The Problem23:02 New Cycle Of Investing26:22 Kamala's Economic Policies34:45 Permissionless Ad35:27 Crypto Regulation42:27 Election Impact On Crypto44:19 Crypto Market Outlook50:42 The Bull Market Hasn't Even Started54:55 Altcoins59:21 Attributes Of Value01:01:37 Don't Fight The Fed01:03:11 Polkadot Ad--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
How the Dollar Will Be Usurped by Emerging Market Currencies | Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina Blockworks Macro 2024-08-22 | This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024.__Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn blckwrks.co/3SUlCPtFollow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurushinaFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:40 How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets03:38 Natalia's Introduction To Economics05:55 How Big Is The EM Bond Market?11:07 Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed14:40 Weakness From Developed Markets17:35 The Yen's Impact On EMs26:24 BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank29:16 Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy30:58 Benefits Of Floating Currencies34:32 Making Money In EM FX36:53 Signal For EMs To Cut Rates38:38 Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX41:25 Diversification In EMs46:24 Sub-Saharan Africa51:48 Importance Of India59:40 Investing In China01:04:49 China's Growth Model01:17:10 Emerging Market Reserves01:25:01 De-Dollarization01:31:42 Sovereign Debt Reckoning01:38:32 Country Picks & Pans__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows Blockworks Macro 2024-08-21 | In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy!--Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/GlobalflowsCapital Flows Substack: capitalflowsresearch.comFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: / onthemarginpod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onth...--MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.Learn more: mantrachain.io--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:59 Capital Flows Research & Strategy04:49 Macro Philosophy07:48 Macro Framework11:39 Bullish After VIX Surge15:26 Credit & Duration Risk18:46 Mantra Ad19:26 Interest Rate Expectations25:51 Bull Vs Bear Steepener27:27 What's Priced Into The Curve30:38 Permissionless Ad31:17 What's Driving The Equity Bull Market36:31 Upside Tail Risks39:31 Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession?43:58 Bitcoin Price Drivers--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Strategies & Risks In Quant Trading | Mike Harris Blockworks Macro 2024-08-19 | This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI.--Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=enFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:20 Mike Harris Background As a Quant03:07 Quest Hedge Fund04:30 CTA Trend Following Strategy11:50 Trend Following Examples16:47 Permissionless Ad17:44 Interview Continues19:33 Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded22:52 Statistical Arbitrage27:17 Risks to Statistical Arbitrage32:11 Multi-Strat Hedge Funds33:32 Lack of New Fund Launches39:04 Sharpe Ratio In Strategies41:34 Private Market Investing48:29 Volatility Strategies54:17 Macro And Stock Market Outlook01:02:26 Risks To Quest01:06:02 Risks To Training Models With AI__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Has The Dust Settled? | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-08-17 | This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market’s economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July’s CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy!--On the Margin Survey: on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b--Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin–Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:39 Schrödinger's Soft Landing04:19 What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy?06:54 The Fed Kept Its Cool09:05 Massive VIX Decline11:40 Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off?18:06 The Role Of Flows21:57 July CPI24:58 What's Going On With China?29:13 The Fed's Next Move31:26 Market Overreaction34:17 Bitcoin & ETFs40:06 Frustrating Crypto Market42:48 How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own?44:09 What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral?47:53 Why The BOJ Backpedaled53:41 The Globalization Of Central Banks--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison Blockworks Macro 2024-08-12 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.--This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027.__Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://x.com/BickerinBrattleFollow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:26 Why George Robertson Is Bullish04:12 Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy?05:43 Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market09:33 Unemployment And The Labor Market13:22 Government Spending And The Economy20:16 GDP Is Booming21:13 VanEck Ad26:40 The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates30:47 Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy?35:46 Nominal GDP And Interest Rates52:18 How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve56:47 Rates Are Artificially Low01:18:05 How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates01:29:15 Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher01:34:09 Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations01:59:54 Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse02:03:26 Reforming Entitlement Spending02:08:36 The US Will Solve All Problems02:15:34 The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt02:24:07 How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy02:30:26 Learn More About George And Mel's Work02:32:15 Thoughts On Small Caps__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell Blockworks Macro 2024-08-12 | In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy!--Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbellFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: mantrachain.io--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:06 Market Volatility Overview04:51 Magnificent Seven Concentration06:24 Dispersion Trades10:49 Market Risks & Correlations14:09 Mantra Ad15:15 The Carry Trade18:14 Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy23:44 Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets31:25 Permissionless Ad32:04 Artificial Intelligence And Alex's Startup Rose AI34:54 Collecting & Using Market Data39:44 The Future Of Finance43:46 Future Of The AI Industry46:20 Alex's Thoughts On Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-08-10 | This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy!--Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events12:23 Polkadot Ad13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility18:39 Assessing Liquidity Signals21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts?23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument42:30 Permissionless Ad43:10 State Of The Labor Market45:38 Where Is Economic Growth?50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way?55:18 Crypto Market Overview01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson Blockworks Macro 2024-08-08 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is).__Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:34 Brent's Market Views06:56 Brent's Dollar View13:44 VanEck Ad14:26 Interview Continues17:57 Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop"19:41 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer20:20 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer26:07 Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way36:46 Permissionless Ad37:53 Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market43:19 Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze48:37 Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar01:02:00 Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?01:04:51 Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large01:13:03 Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?01:16:17 Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm Blockworks Macro 2024-08-07 | In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy!--Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_SahmFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: mantrachain.io--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:13 What is the Sahm Rule?06:29 Sahm Rule Triggered08:37 Purpose of the Sahm Rule10:20 Are We in a Recession?14:05 Mantra Ad15:18 Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule18:16 Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession21:22 Sahm Rule 2.022:56 Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule24:35 July Unemployment Report32:10 Permissionless Ad32:49 How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market38:14 Should the Fed be Cutting Rates?40:38 Are We Heading for a Hard Landing?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Global Stock Market Crash Shocks Wall Street | Volatility Veteran Noel Smith Blockworks Macro 2024-08-05 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.__Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://x.com/NoelConvexFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
U.S. Economy Almost Certainly Already In Recession, Argues Veteran Portfolio Manager Mike Green Blockworks Macro 2024-08-02 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation.___Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99Mike Green’s Substack: yesigiveafig.comFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli__Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:13 Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report05:45 Is The U.S. In A Recession Now?06:01 How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher28:35 VanEck Ad29:15 Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces32:25 Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies?42:25 Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining?48:40 Permissionless Ad49:39 If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger53:16 SPAC Flows Are No More01:16:52 Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices01:18:49 Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup"01:34:00 Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-08-02 | This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy!--On the Margin Survey: on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b--Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--Referenced In The Show: a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction02:28 QRA & FOMC Takeaways16:07 Why Are Markets Unwinding?23:51 The Yen Carry Trade Unwind26:11 Permissionless Ad26:50 What's Happening In Crypto?31:13 Coinbase Earnings35:39 Tether Earnings--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Federal Reserve Is On Collision Course With 2024 Election | Nick Timiraos Blockworks Macro 2024-08-01 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraosNick’s work at WSJ: wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraosFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_Nick’s book amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de__Timestamps:00:00 Introduction12:35 VanEck Ad13:14 Interview Continues19:35 What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September?24:17 Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market?25:44 Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market31:41 The Housing Market36:41 Permissionless Ad37:40 Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign"47:24 It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates50:37 Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President?54:49 Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another57:47 What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed)01:02:44 The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan Blockworks Macro 2024-08-01 | In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy!--Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/blockworks_On The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: mantrachain.io--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:32 FOMC Takeaway's03:24 The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates?11:03 Mantra Ad12:10 Why Is This Economic Cycle Different?17:56 QRA & The QT Impact22:08 What's The Trade?28:27 Permissionless Ad29:05 Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind37:51 What's Next For Markets?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Why Credit Conditions Have Actually Eased Over Past Year | Oaktree’s Wayne Dahl Blockworks Macro 2024-07-29 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:36 The High-Yield Bond Market10:08 VanEck Ad10:48 Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically19:27 The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans)25:04 How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs?28:59 Permissionless Ad29:58 The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age?41:34 Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession?46:53 What Is The Private Credit Money Used For?52:57 Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform?58:51 Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace01:03:02 Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities)01:04:40 Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets01:07:02 Commercial Real Estate (CRE)__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble, Says Veteran Trader Tommy Thornton Blockworks Macro 2024-07-28 | Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.Follow Tommy Thornton on Twitter https://x.com/TommyThorntonFollow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:00:00 Introduction01:52 Tech Stocks Are In A "Bubble," Argues Tommy15:29 Earnings Season So Far: Tesla and Google20:51 VanEck Ad21:32 Interview Continues25:33 Nvidia and Apple37:03 What Tom Is Short39:39 What Tom Is Long51:49 Permissionless Ad52:51 Interview Continues01:00:26 National Debt and Recession Odds01:03:48 What Would It Take For Tommy To Turn Bullish?01:14:28 Tom's Story About Charlie Munger__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup Blockworks Macro 2024-07-27 | This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy! --Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Tyler: twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodOn The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--Referenced In The Show: a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance In 2024 & Beyond | Lyn Alden Blockworks Macro 2024-07-24 | In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance & it's impact on markets in H2 2024 & beyond. We then deep dive into Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the election impact, what asset classes should perform well over the next 3-6 months & more. Enjoy!--Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContactFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow On The Margin: twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: twitter.com/blockworks_On The Margin Newsletter: blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin--MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: mantrachain.io--Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:49 The Rate Cutting Cycle05:09 Is The Economy Slowing?08:51 Will We See A Recession?11:02 The Small Cap Rotation13:34 Mantra Ad14:43 The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance18:12 The Election Impact21:34 Bitcoin As A Strategic Reserve Asset33:13 Permissionless Ad33:54 Oil & Energy42:05 Stocks, Bonds & The Three Pillar Portfolio--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
