Uploaded December 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
A public lecture co-hosted by CEU Department of International Relations and CEU Department of Political Science, held at Central European University in Vienna on November 19, 2024.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. He is a columnist at Foreign Policy magazine and a member of the Board of Directors of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
This talk was chaired by Professor Erin K. Jenne, Head of CEU Department of International Relations.
Learn more:
https://www.ceu.edu/departments/international-relations
https://www.ceu.edu/departments/political-science
About CEU
Central European University (CEU) is a research-focused university offering a wide spectrum of interdisciplinary undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in the heart of Europe. Our ever-growing international community of students, alumni, permanent and visiting faculty and program partners enables you to challenge conventional wisdom, explore diverse perspectives and critically examine the biggest challenges of the 21st century.
More from CEU
Website: https://www.ceu.edu/
Facebook: facebook.com/WeAreCEU
Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/weareceu.bsky.social
Instagram: instagram.com/weareceu
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/school/central-european-university
Threads: threads.net/@weareceu
#irceu #ceuinternationalrelations #ceupolsci #ceupoliticalscience #SeeUatCEU
Timestamps
00:00 – Welcome and introduction
00:43 – Overview of the "critical moment": The reelection of Donald J. Trump
01:29 – Summary of Trump’s campaign promises (NATO, Ukraine, Mexico, and domestic reforms)
01:52 – Discussion of recent cabinet appointments and foreign policy figures
03:06 – About Professor Stephen M. Walt
04:33 – America's position in the world today
06:06 – Historical context of "decline" fears (1950s Sputnik to 1980s Japan)
07:49 – Arguments for American strength: Economy, the Dollar, and Innovation
09:07 – Military advantages and the "extraordinary" protection of geography
10:37 – The "Black Cloud": Fragile domestic political institutions
10:55 – Why a "modest decline" might actually be beneficial for global stability
12:12 – Analysis of 30 years of failed US foreign policy (Middle East, NATO expansion)
15:30 – Addressing the "Why": Why Trump won despite his record
16:44 – Reason 1: The "white-hot anger" toward ruling elites
17:21 – Reason 2: Economic perceptions and Biden’s failure to sell achievements
18:45 – Reason 3: The challenges of the Harris campaign and "defining" the candidate
20:53 – Note on Bernie Sanders and the rejected Democratic alternative
21:38 – Prediction 1: Inherent unpredictability and weak, loyalist appointments
23:15 – Prediction 2: The death of "Liberal Hegemony"
24:28 – Prediction 3: The coming Trade War and 1930s-era tariffs
25:21 – Prediction 4: Europe in trouble (Hostility toward the EU)
27:52 – Prediction 5: Ukraine in trouble (The likelihood of cut-off support)
29:25 – Prediction 6: Middle East strife and "maximum pressure" on Iran
31:05 – Prediction 7: Hardball with China and friction with Asian allies
33:07 – Prediction 8: Climate change reversal
33:57 – Prediction 9: Unified executive power within a deeply divided society
36:40 – Prediction 10: The "Slim Ray of Hope" – The potential for overreach and backlash
38:43 – Closing summary and Q&A
A public lecture co-hosted by CEU Department of International Relations and CEU Department of Political Science, held at Central European University in Vienna on November 19, 2024.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. He is a columnist at Foreign Policy magazine and a member of the Board of Directors of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
This talk was chaired by Professor Erin K. Jenne, Head of CEU Department of International Relations.
Learn more:
https://www.ceu.edu/departments/international-relations
https://www.ceu.edu/departments/political-science
About CEU
Central European University (CEU) is a research-focused university offering a wide spectrum of interdisciplinary undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in the heart of Europe. Our ever-growing international community of students, alumni, permanent and visiting faculty and program partners enables you to challenge conventional wisdom, explore diverse perspectives and critically examine the biggest challenges of the 21st century.
More from CEU
Website: https://www.ceu.edu/
Facebook: facebook.com/WeAreCEU
Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/weareceu.bsky.social
Instagram: instagram.com/weareceu
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/school/central-european-university
Threads: threads.net/@weareceu
#irceu #ceuinternationalrelations #ceupolsci #ceupoliticalscience #SeeUatCEU
Timestamps
00:00 – Welcome and introduction
00:43 – Overview of the "critical moment": The reelection of Donald J. Trump
01:29 – Summary of Trump’s campaign promises (NATO, Ukraine, Mexico, and domestic reforms)
01:52 – Discussion of recent cabinet appointments and foreign policy figures
03:06 – About Professor Stephen M. Walt
04:33 – America's position in the world today
06:06 – Historical context of "decline" fears (1950s Sputnik to 1980s Japan)
07:49 – Arguments for American strength: Economy, the Dollar, and Innovation
09:07 – Military advantages and the "extraordinary" protection of geography
10:37 – The "Black Cloud": Fragile domestic political institutions
10:55 – Why a "modest decline" might actually be beneficial for global stability
12:12 – Analysis of 30 years of failed US foreign policy (Middle East, NATO expansion)
15:30 – Addressing the "Why": Why Trump won despite his record
16:44 – Reason 1: The "white-hot anger" toward ruling elites
17:21 – Reason 2: Economic perceptions and Biden’s failure to sell achievements
18:45 – Reason 3: The challenges of the Harris campaign and "defining" the candidate
20:53 – Note on Bernie Sanders and the rejected Democratic alternative
21:38 – Prediction 1: Inherent unpredictability and weak, loyalist appointments
23:15 – Prediction 2: The death of "Liberal Hegemony"
24:28 – Prediction 3: The coming Trade War and 1930s-era tariffs
25:21 – Prediction 4: Europe in trouble (Hostility toward the EU)
27:52 – Prediction 5: Ukraine in trouble (The likelihood of cut-off support)
29:25 – Prediction 6: Middle East strife and "maximum pressure" on Iran
31:05 – Prediction 7: Hardball with China and friction with Asian allies
33:07 – Prediction 8: Climate change reversal
33:57 – Prediction 9: Unified executive power within a deeply divided society
36:40 – Prediction 10: The "Slim Ray of Hope" – The potential for overreach and backlash
38:43 – Closing summary and Q&A
