Uploaded November 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
What if we could predict the economy the way we predict the weather? What if governments could run simulations to forecast the effects of new policies—before they happen? And what if the key to all of this lies in the same chaotic systems that explain spinning roulette wheels and rolling dice?
J. Doyne Farmer is a University of Oxford professor, complexity scientist, and former physicist who once beat Las Vegas casinos using his scientific-based methods. In his recent book “Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World” Farmer is using those same principles to build a new branch of economics called complexity economics—one that uses big data to help forecast market crashes, design better policies and find ways to confront climate change.
But can we really predict the unpredictable? And how will using chaos theory shake up well-established economic approaches?
00:00 Introduction and Predicting the Future
00:24 Applying Predictive Models to Economics
01:31 Understanding Complex Systems with J. Doan Farmer
04:08 The Science of Chaos and Its Applications
08:00 Predicting the Stock Market with Complexity Science
09:49 Complexity Economics: A New Approach
11:33 Agent-Based Modeling and Real-World Applications
15:11 The Future of Complexity Economics
26:10 Technological Innovation and Economic Growth
31:32 Conclusion and Future Prospects
What if we could predict the economy the way we predict the weather? What if governments could run simulations to forecast the effects of new policies—before they happen? And what if the key to all of this lies in the same chaotic systems that explain spinning roulette wheels and rolling dice?
J. Doyne Farmer is a University of Oxford professor, complexity scientist, and former physicist who once beat Las Vegas casinos using his scientific-based methods. In his recent book “Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World” Farmer is using those same principles to build a new branch of economics called complexity economics—one that uses big data to help forecast market crashes, design better policies and find ways to confront climate change.
But can we really predict the unpredictable? And how will using chaos theory shake up well-established economic approaches?
00:00 Introduction and Predicting the Future
00:24 Applying Predictive Models to Economics
01:31 Understanding Complex Systems with J. Doan Farmer
04:08 The Science of Chaos and Its Applications
08:00 Predicting the Stock Market with Complexity Science
09:49 Complexity Economics: A New Approach
11:33 Agent-Based Modeling and Real-World Applications
15:11 The Future of Complexity Economics
26:10 Technological Innovation and Economic Growth
31:32 Conclusion and Future Prospects
