One Minute Economics
The Velocity of Money Explained in One Minute
updated
I have launched the NeverTrade.org non-profit initiative to make one thing and one thing only crystal clear: investing is great, trading is a scam.
Not only is it a scam but it is in my view the number one mental health risk of our generation when it comes to the financial dimension of life, with potential consequences which will unfortunately make 1929 seem like a walk in the park.
Lives are being ruined as we speak due to retail trading being such a poorly understood phenomenon and what we are seeing in the present is but the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Once the economy turns sour and an event similar to the Great Recession manifests itself, overly-exposed retail traders from all corners of the world and their families will pay the price.
Is there still time?
Yes.
Which is why I have dedicated so much time to thinking about how NeverTrade.org can be promoted. If you appreciate One Minute Economics and the work I have done here over the years, your help with respect to spreading the word would be greatly appreciated. To get in touch, no matter what it is you have in mind, send an email to contact@nevertrade.org and I will get back to you as soon as possible!
Does this mean your job is safe?
I'm afraid not.
Because as this video makes clear, it's not AI robots like you see in SciFi movies that you should be afraid of but rater scenarios such as a fellow human being who knows how to use AI taking your job... along with that of all your coworkers.
Can we at least be certain that just like with the previous Industrial Revolutions, more than enough new jobs will be created this time around as well?
Yet again, the answer is no.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, as many of you already know, so we can only HOPE that is the case. But since hoping is not exactly the wisest strategy, the name of the game is also preparing for the worst and starting to think about how you can start leveraging AI to become better and better at whatever it is you currently do.
If you can't beat them, join them!
Why?
Simply because we are no longer referring to discretionary spending, to the proverbial avocado toast and what not, but rather to a necessity. At the end of the day, no matter what it is you do for a living, you need a place to... well, live.
Thus, the housing affordability topic is one we can consider far trickier to tackle than many other topics that pertain to economics. Calling it "sensitive" would be quite an understatement, to be blunt.
Through this video, I will attempt to put what can indeed be considered today's housing affordability crisis under the microscope in an unbiased manner. This is most definitely one of those topics that is impossible to cover in a way that pleases everyone and I am fine with that.
Still, I have done my best not to pick sides in an attempt to be popular, ride a wave and so on. If that makes me a centrist, so be it :)
With a new year upon us, it makes sense to give adequate attention to the main narratives with respect to economics in 2024. And a fair case could be made that an epic battle between sentiment and metrics is in the spotlight this year.
More specifically, a battle between statistics that paint a positive picture of the economy on the one hand and consumer sentiment data which says the exact opposite on the other.
Why is that?
Why can so many people feel so bad about the state of the economy when the proverbial numbers indicate that things are actually not that bad?
As much as I dislike using this expression, the truth is somewhere in the middle in this case. Thus, no matter what side of the fence we find ourselves on in terms of verdicts, I would strongly recommend keeping an open mind and at least entertaining the possibility that you are not the holder of absolute truth.
While admitting you don't know everything is quite the undertaking in a highly polarized 2024... hey, it's worth at least giving it a shot! :)
If you are in it for the long haul, then the answer to any questions as to whether or not you should invest in gold tends to be affirmative. There is, in my view, room for precious metals in pretty much all portfolios.
At the same time, though, you should not invest in gold if you are only in it for short-term gains... in other words seeing gold investing from the perspective of trading potential tends to be a bad idea. Don't trade... just don't.
Instead, understand that gold is most definitely an asset with a multi-millennia track record which is worth having but that volatility should be expected. Keep your eyes on the prize and on your goals (hedging against uncertainty and sure, also against inflation) and whatever you do, don't get greedy.
Protecting yourself is the name of the game when deciding when and how you should invest in gold and from this perspective, gold... yes, I will say it and you cannot stop me... shines! :)
Simply put, today's technology evens the playing field in a game-changing manner, enabling the average person to launch truly gigantic websites that used to cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars at ridiculously low prices.
If you cannot spot the ludicrous asymmetry, you are not paying attention. And let's just say not paying attention during internet-defining moments is not an option. Through GiganticWebsites.com, we can put this technology to good use by creating websites that are genuinely awesome so as to dethrone junk sites that are still to this day plaguing the internet.
To put it differently, you can make the internet a better place by launching gigantic websites that actually provide value and generate generation-defining profits while you're at it. Not the worst value proposition in the world, wouldn't you agree?
While nothing is certain, let's just say making the case for an environment where it will be time for gold to shine becomes easier and easier as time passes.
Canadians in particular have a wide range of options at their disposal if they are serious about gaining exposure to gold and the options in question have been covered throughout this video.
More specifically, you can visit the following URL to request the free gold investor's guide that has been mentioned in this video:
goldrrsp.silvergoldbull.ca
Or, to read a full review of Silver Gold Bull, the following URL can be used:
goldrrsp.ca/silver-gold-bull-review
At the end of the day, there is room for gold in pretty much all portfolios and if you are going to finally gain exposure to this asset class (especially as a Canadian), why not do it properly?
No, not really, with this video explaining why getting rich slowly represents the superior alternative.
Does this mean getting rich quick is impossible? Of course not, as it isn't difficult to point to individuals who have successfully done just that. However, by merely asking if it is possible, you are asking the wrong question. The right one is asking how probable it is.
And, unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of those who try to get rich quick fail. To make matters worse, the select few who make it are given ample exposure, giving people the wrong impression that proverbially hitting it big is extremely common. It is not.
As difficult as it is to make the case for getting rich slowly to individuals who have been conditioned to believe that the exact opposite approach is the way to go, One Minute Economics is yet again here to tell the unpopular truth :)
Not only that, increasing attention is also paid to the different manners in which one can gain exposure to gold, because capital allocation opportunities come in all shapes and sizes.
How do you go about investing in gold with an IRA? What about a 401k, TSP, or Roth IRA? Perhaps something else? Through today's one minute animation, we are about to find out :)
If you are interested in learning more about gold IRAs, you can head on over to GoldIRAGuide.com and request a free guide from Noble Gold Investments:
http://goldiraguide.com
Finally, as mentioned in the video, please note that this isn't financial advice and cannot be taken as such. Always speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decision. All investments carry a certain level of risk, and past performance cannot guarantee future returns. Always do your due diligence.
However, despite the fact that so few certainties exist, there is one thing I am convinced of: retail trading ruins lives.
Don't day trade, in other words, just don't.
From countless studies such as the ones quoted throughout this video to anecdotal examples involving day trading gone wrong to such a degree that it turned into an addiction, the evidence is literally shouting at you.
Why do people day trade, then? Simply put, the allure of day trading is such that folks get attracted to the proverbial dream: getting rich, enjoying life on some remote island and only clicking a few buttons each day.
Unfortunately, said dream doesn't result in realized gains for day traders statistically speaking. On the contrary, it's those who sell the dream in question (overpriced books, mastermind classes, trading groups, you name it) who proverbially make it, with the lives of their "customers" in shambles.
I truly hope this video on the one hand and my NeverTrade.org website on the other will help as many people as possible avoid ruin. If you stand by this initiative, please help me spread the word however you can.
With those who believe otherwise either lying to you or lying to themselves about this mystical ability that nobody has.
Now there is bad and good news associated with the reality that economists cannot predict the future and that economic predictions should be taken with a huge, huge grain of salt. The bad news is that you have to tone down your expectations a notch or two with respect to what an economist can and cannot do... c'est la vie. The good news, however, is that we economists can provide more than enough value to make up for our "sin" of not being able to predict the future.
But to take advantage of said value, starting with a solid foundation is the way to go, one that revolves around sometimes-painful truths such as the one explained through this video, with there being more than enough in the way of research to make it crystal-clear that what I am publishing here is more than just an opinion :)
Why?
Simply because in real life, things are (unfortunately for forecasters) ridiculously complex. "Ceteris paribus" seems like a reasonable thing to say, right... all things being equal, in other words? But that is precisely the problem when analyzing ultra-complex system with a wide range of oftentimes-unpredictable variables, they're not :)
Instead, you end up having no choice but to accept the limitations of in our case economics. And that is not necessarily a bad thing. As The Ultimatum Game and the other arguments presented throughout this video (primarily arguments pertaining to the complexity and data/assumption reliability dimension) make clear, we are dealing with an ultra-complex equation. And that is fine, hardly the end of the world.
Instead, this reality simply makes it clear that to maximize results, deploying humility is the way to go, among other things by also incorporating insights from other disciplines such as psychology, political science or sociology. Again, hardly the end of the world and instead, think of it as an opportunity to move away from delusions of grandeur and toward providing real-world value. Fair enough?
Right off the bat, I want to make it clear that nobody can predict the future and those who claim otherwise are either lying or deluding themselves.
Thus, instead of trying to get a book + movie deal for "predicting" this or that, I'll do the exact opposite by acknowledging my incompetence on this front and helping the One Minute Economic audience make decisions based on a rational interpretation of the events that are unfolding and the overall situation (macroeconomic, geopolitical and otherwise).
To support my work, you can donate through YouTube itself (the feature is enabled for my channel) or head on over to OneMinuteEconomics.com where you will find a bunch of other options: direct PayPal donation, Bitcoin donation, Patreon subscription or buying my book(s).
More specifically:
1) The income-happiness paradox makes it clear that money only "buys" happiness up until a certain income level. In that let's say escaping poverty is most definitely going to bring about increases in happiness levels but the same cannot be stated about earning $90,000 yearly vs. $100,000
2) The hedonic treadmill makes it clear that just like lottery winners who return to their pre-win happiness levels, you too will most likely simply adapt to newfound wealth
3) Social comparison theory makes it clear that not just nominal income/wealth is important but also the manner in which it affects our "rank" within and even outside our social circle. After all, humans are pack animals at the end of the day, so why should be surprised that we act as such by comparing our financial status to that of our peers?
... the list could go on and on :)
Let's take things one step further and deploy optimism as well as positive thinking so as to develop the audacity to ask if perhaps it's within the realm of possibility to downright... thrive!
As peculiar as it may be to think about optimism and positive thinking when everyone else is in "doom and gloom" mode, it's not only possible but downright represents the best possible approach.
This video will hopefully make it clear that no, optimism and positive thinking are not about living in denial and pretending that things are perfect when they most definitely are not. Instead, it's all a matter of adopting the right mindset and replacing toxic go-to attitudes with behavior patterns that are conducive to not just living to fight another battle but even spotting potentially life-altering opportunities.
More specifically, a meaningful understanding of what decentralization is in the first place will enable us to find answers to a wide range of questions such as:
1) How decentralized is Bitcoin itself and why?
2) What about altcoins, should they be considered as decentralized as Bitcoin?
3) What are the pros as well as cons of decentralization?
4) Is decentralization always the answer in the world of finance?
5) If not, then what are the instances where decentralized solutions such as Bitcoin make sense and when would a centralized alternative represent the superior choice?
While there are few certainties in the world of economics, it is fortunately anything but difficult to wrap your head around decentralization, especially as it pertains to the ever-so-heated Bitcoin vs. altcoins debate :)
With these blockchain use cases alone being more than enough to justify the existence of the technology. To put it differently, blockchain technology and cetralized solutions complement one another. For some use cases, it makes more sense to use centralized options whereas for others, blockchain technology is what shines.
At the end of the day, there is room in the ecosystem for a wide range of options and what's most important is understanding what blockchain technology is all about in a meaningful manner. It is this understanding that will enable you to form an educated opinion with respect to when it makes sense to opt for blockchain technology and when the cons outweigh the pros. There is no such thing as a "one size fits all" solution in the tech world and the financial dimension most definitely doesn't represent an exception :)
For example, when data seems to be telling you something when it comes to the entire population and something (completely) different when analyzing subpopulations.
Simpson's Paradox, among other things, also explains why vaccines against COVID-19 are actually effective when it comes to improving overall survival despite the fact that there are studies which show that unvaccinated populations tend to live longer.
HOWEVER, this has nothing to do with the vaccines and everything to do with the fact that pretty much all countries prioritized them toward older and more vulnerable individuals. Thus, the fact that vaccinated populations tend not to live longer is simply a function of the fact that... well, they contain far more older individuals, who are obviously more likely to die generally speaking.
When analyzing data one subpopulation at a time, it becomes obvious that vaccines are effective at preventing mortality. With 10 to 20-year-old vaccinated individuals living longer than 10 to 20-year old unvaccinated individuals and the same principle being valid for 20 to 30-year-olds, 30 to 40 year-olds, 40 to 50-year-olds, 50 to 60-year-olds and individuals aged 60+.
When confusion and misinformation run rampant, knowledge is what saves the day and Simpson's Paradox is a much-needed ingredient in the equation :)
The exact opposite of a black swan, if you will.
But is now the right time to be a contrarian? To assume the crowd is wrong and the economy will therefore do much better than expected?
While nothing is impossible, it's important to keep in mind that no... the crowd isn't always wrong. Not unless you think believing in gravity is wrong, for example.
Indeed, being in a crowded leveraged trade is not always the best idea in the world but expecting "the most expected recession" if we are to call it that is hardly comparable to a yolo short :)
So what is this infamous most expected recession all about, what are the causes and how does it make sense to position yourself? While by no means definitive, this video should at least help you get on the right track.
But why is retail trader speculation running rampant?
Why is this phenomenon gaining traction at this point in time as opposed to let's say the fifties or sixties?
The answers to these two questions and many more should become obvious once we rid ourselves of "it's just plain old greed" stereotypes. Not necessarily because greed isn't a dominant variable but rather because the underlying causes of said greed makes today's situation quite nuanced.
Is retail trader speculation a good or bad thing?
Long-term speaking, in light of the fact that the average retail trader loses money, most likely the latter.
But this conclusion is of little use in the absence of the meaningful understanding of perhaps the elephant in the room in terms of causes: despair :(
Assets which, as the name suggests, represent an alternative to let's say the S&P 500 and Treasuries. From "old school" assets like art and agriculture equipment to digital assets and even education-oriented assets, there is no shortage of options.
With Hedonova.io providing a solution for those who want to go down this path but cannot afford to actually build an alternative asset portfolio themselves... most people, in other words. After all, even one investment grade work of art is not within reach for the average investor, so fractional ownership solutions such as the ones Hedonova offers are here to fill this void. In a nutshell, a budget of only $5,000 is enough to gain exposure to over 12 alternative assets.
For more info, head on over to their website, with the URL being:
hedonova.io
What percentage of your net worth you allocate toward alternative investments is, of course, up to you. The main takeaway is simply that in an increasingly complex economic and financial landscape, thinking outside the box makes perfect sense. And, I might add, may very well end up becoming a necessity.
This video tries to put a balanced perspective on the European Union's energy crisis on the table so that viewers, not just those who live in the EU (because as made clear throughout the video, the implications of this energy crisis are global), can put together a coherent strategy based on facts rather than emotion.
Nobody knows what the future holds but by deploying reason, you will be light years ahead of the average individual in terms of rational preparedness. Is a Wild West world coming? I certainly hope not. But make no mistake, the likelihood of this winter ending without social unrest issues is slim. Yet again, not just in the European Union. Act accordingly.
As today's video illustrates, Monestro is here to change that by enabling European Economic Area (as well as Switzerland) citizens to earn more by lending to "vetted" loan originators that meet its criteria.
The name of the game here is not trying to earn as much as possible no matter what but rather finding the right balance between how much you earn and the risk you take on.
In a nutshell, the name of the game is selecting who you lend to from a pool of accepted loan originators and then receiving principal as well as interest payments each month.
One can get started with as little as 10 EUR and thus, it is possible to experiment with this platform without breaking the bank so as to figure out if you like what you see on the one hand and on the other hand, how much canpital it makes sense to deploy in this direction.
Now to be fair, they do have a point in that for an extended period of time, gaining exposure to "the best of the best" in terms of art was next to impossible... even if you had copious amounts of money, which is a major IF to begin with.
To put it differently, art investing was an option that seemed exclusively intended for the very well-funded and very well-connected. Fortunately, as explained throughout this video, that is not the case anymore thanks to Masterworks.
In a nutshell, Masterworks enables the average person to gain exposure to masterpieces in the most literal sense of the word. Picassos, Warhol gems, Basquiats, you name it. The beauty of fractional ownership or the democratization of art investing, depending on how you choose to view things.
The end result is that never before has it been easier for the average person to gain exposure to an asset class that beat the already-impressive S&P 500 by well over 100% over the past 25 years, an asset class that is especially attractive in an inflationary environment such as the one we are increasingly finding ourselves in.
Skip the waitlist and invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: https://masterworks.art/oneminute
Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more.
See important Masterworks disclosures: masterworks.io/about/disclaimer
Look, the West isn't perfect.
But for better or worse, it's democratic. With ramifications that range from the well-being of citizens to global peace.
Current events have made it clear that Russia, as it is currently run, is not a credible negotiation partner. Lies, deceit and ultimately mass murder.
Praying for peace and posting positive messages on social media helps... but not that much.
Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures. They require us to, among other things, change our lives and perspective on the world. Fortunately, doing so in a way that facilitates real-world change when it comes to the tragedy taking place in Ukraine is not in the realm of rocket science.
Throughout this video, I cover seven simple things almost everyone can do to boycott Russia economically. Other than perhaps item #6 in the video, we are not talking about something in the realm of rocket science. On the contrary, simple and effective steps can bring about game-changing outcomes.
Not just for those who live in Ukraine. Or let's say them and European Union members. But actually for the average Russian as well. An average Russian citizen who is living under an oppressive regime that places next to no value on human life. Our journey on this planet is about more than just surviving.
And we are more than just animals who blindly follow a wannabe alpha male. Let us act accordingly and take decisive action so that reason can prevail.
To help with precisely that goal, brothers Adam and Matthew Toren have launched KidpreneursAcademy.com, an initiative One Minute Economics believes represents a step in the right direction!
The clickable URL is https://KidpreneursAcademy.com :)
At the end of the day, it doesn't even matter whether or not your child will end up becoming an entrepreneur. No matter which career path will ultimately be chosen, an education that carries a kidpreneur component will lead to skills that will generate dividends again and again... and again.
Let's face it: the status quo education system has its limits and through projects such as this one, we as parents are doing our best to complement the education the proverbial system has to offer so as to help those we love most become well-rounded individuals.
But how did we get here?
How are events likely to unfold?
This is where things get multiple orders of magnitude more complex. With consensus being light years away even when it comes to even seemingly simple questions such as the "inflation or deflation" one.
Through this video, I have done my best to provide clarity with respect to the hottest topic today. I wish I could state that I have it all figured out and all answers are within reach. But a liar, I am not. What I can promise is that in the pursuit of answers, I will do my best to put as unbiased of a perspective on the table as possible. And, of course, admit that there are some things (many, in fact) I simply do not know :)
No matter which angle you choose to view the situation from, the Cayman Islands fascinate. From pros such as ultra-high GDP per capita levels to threats involving anything from regulatory threats to global warming.
While all of this may sound complicated, it's actually not once you take things one step at a time and understand the physical as well as economic system of Cayman. No matter where you stand politically, learning a thing or two about this jurisdiction would be highly recommended and this video aims to help with just that.
Simply put, you play a game on the one hand but on the other hand, will gain economics-related skills that can be put to good use in the real world.
To proceed, please use the link below if possible:
https://prosperousuniverse.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=oneminuteeconomics
You can play free of charge or opt for the paid route so as to take your experience to the next level, it's all up to you. Just like it is all up to you how you manage your "career" as a corporation owner in newly-settled human space.
From taking your corporation to the next level by shipping goods to engaging in anything from foreign exchange speculation to commodity exchange arbitrage. The sky is the limit in terms of possibilities, with it being highly unlikely that playing this particular game will not result in more than a few Aha! moments :)
The result?
Debates, if we can even call them that anymore, end up suffering. And this is not just something specific to economics, not by a long shot. We live in a world where common sense discussions become increasingly difficult to come by. A status quo which results in society as a whole suffering.
Everything has to be "edgy" and bombastic apparently. Who needs calm, rational discussions anymore?
In my opinion, we do. All of us. And desperately so. Yet instead of collectively coming to this realization, it seems everyone is busy digging deeper ideological trenches. Not only does this hinder progress, the consequences or let's say potential consequences can get much worse. So bad that I do not even want to address them just yet. Perhaps I will do so in future videos but for now, I felt the need to vent :(
However, there are challenges or let us call them growing pains.
As a content creator, your goal is the make the most of your brand, with all it encompasses. On the one hand, this means amassing an impressive following so as to have a meaningful voice. On the other hand, however, content creators most definitely have bills that need to be paid as well... as such, monetization is not just a perk, it's a downright necessity.
In one minute, this video will explain the economics behind content creation as well as monetization. A video published by yours truly, a content creator himself who also happens to be an economist. While there is no "one size fits all" advice that guarantees success when it comes to a career that didn't even exist a few years ago, this video hopefully provides some much-needed clarity on what it still a Wild West space in many respects :)
Oh, and by the way: you can sign up for an account at siasky.net to check out what they have to offer. The free tier includes 100 GB of data storage or you can upgrade and support creators starting at $5 monthly for 1 TB of storage.
If you're interested in connecting with the team behind the project, you can find them on discord: discord.gg/sia
Simply put, all of the ingredients are there for videos about Modern Monetary Theory to generate a fair bit of buzz. On the one hand because, due to the post-pandemic context we find ourselves in, there is undeniable demand for economic "medicine" that promises to fix everything and MMT definitely qualifies.
At the same time, however, many economists doubt that Modern Monetary Theory can deliver on those promises. To put it differently, quite a few economic thinkers consider MMT nothing more than populism articulated by intellectuals rather than politicians.
As you will find out by watching the video, Modern Monetary Theory promotes a far more aggressive approach to currency creation than even Neo-Keynesianism and from many perspectives, can be considered the exact opposite of Austrian Economics. Needless to say, for these reasons and many others, debates surrounding these topics are far too frequently anything but civil.
At the end of the day, it makes perfect sense because 2020 is still fresh enough in people's memory for it to be difficult to draw brutally rational conclusions. To make matters even more complicated, very few things are set in stone when it comes to 2020 because as the video will hopefully make clear, it has been what one could call a K-shaped year, in that many individuals as well as industries have suffered (those who work in the restaurant businesses, in industries that have to do with tourism and the list could go on and on), whereas others (those who work in sectors pertaining to digitalization, for example) have thrived.
It's ultimately on us to draw better and better conclusions with respect to 2020, so that we can learn the (many!) lessons it taught us and not only hope for a better 2021... but actually do something about it!
In one minute, we will analyze the proverbial superpowers of central banks in an effort to determine their limitations. This is extremely important because especially after the Great Recessions, central banks essentially became "rock stars" and ended up in the spotlight even more so than in the past.
At the same time, however, they have failed rather embarrassingly when it comes to their mandate of generating consumer price inflation. As explained in this video, we have had asset price inflation (if you will) across the board and a wide range of bubbles but "actual" inflation is still nowhere to be found.
Why is it that despite their various superpowers, central banks such as the Fed or ECB have not managed to create consumer price inflation? In approximately one minute and forty-four seconds, we will find out :)
Unfortunately, as explained in this video, that is hardly an accurate depiction of reality. Too much debt most definitely does represent a problem and in just one minute, the most important four reasons as to why have been presented.
From interest rate implications and the diminishing returns dimension to Richard Koo's "balance sheet recession" argument that revolves around behavior changes and the political dimension (the idea that "selling" solutions with respect to tackling debt-related problems is anything but easy), there is far more under the hood than it seems.
Therefore, it makes sense to treat the problem of too much debt with the utmost seriousness rather than simply sweep it under the rug and call it a relic of the previous millennium(s). In one minute, we'll do just that.
A lot of interesting arguments were made, numbers have been shared and in approximately one minute, we'll be doing our best to make sense of it all. At the end of the day, it's good to have a firm grasp on the economic policies both candidates are putting on the table so as to make an informed decision when figuring out who is worth supporting on the one hand and on the other hand (more pragmatically speaking) to know what to expect... at least broadly speaking.
As always, One Minute Economics is a politically neutral channel and I am personally politically agnostic, so please treat this Trump - Biden Debate analysis as nothing more than a best effort to present what both sides have to offer in economics-related terms and in a manner as unbiased as humanly possible. That's pretty much it :)
Mike Pence as well as Kamala Harris did their best to explain how they are positioning themselves in a very tricky post-pandemic context and viewers were able to notice that the difference between approaches are anything but in let's say the realm of nuance.
As always, it's important to point out that at the end of the day, both Kamala Harris and Mike pence are politicians rather than economists and their debate needs to be viewed from this perspective. Still, both candidates have highly-respected experts in their teams who did their homework so as to provide the two with the most relevant talking points... did they do a good job? Let's find out! :)
Roughly 15 of 90 minutes were dedicated to the economy and while the first Donald Trump - Joe Biden debate was anything but stellar when it comes to numbers, we were at least able to see where the two candidates stand... if we had the mental fortitude necessary to leave the bickering aside :(
Yes, the first US presidential election debate was pretty much a disaster from many perspectives but we have no choice but to work with what we have and in one minute, we'll be doing just that.
After watching the video, you'll know (broadly speaking) where Donald Trump stands when it comes to key economics-related issues and the same principle is valid for Joe Biden.
I've done my best to put an unbiased analysis on the table and limit myself to highlighting what I consider to be the most important economics-related conclusions after the first Trump - Biden debate... hope you will not be disappointed.
As always, the modus operandi as far as One Minute Economics is concerned revolves around explaining concepts in a level-headed rather than ideologically charged manner. In this case, the economics and most certainly NOT politics behind K-shaped recoveries have been explained in... you've guessed it, one minute :)
From definition to examples, I did my best to make it clear that understanding K-shaped recoveries generally speaking and of course in the context of the 2020 economic crisis is hardly in the realm of rocket science. All it takes is a healthy dose of common sense and an open mind... easier said than done this year, however, for obvious reasons :(
As explained through this video, deleveraging basically means reducing debt and at the individual level (for the average person or business), it represents the responsible thing to do when things turn sour. In other words, if a person goes through economic pain or a business suffers, it makes sense to (among other measures, of course) pay down debt so as to increase the likelihood of ending up on a sustainable path.
Think of deleveraging on a granular level as bitter but necessary and ultimately effective medicine. You take the hit/pain but know or at least hope that there is a silver lining that revolves around sustainability.
Problems start appearing, however, when everyone deleverages. While responsible and understandable at an individual level, it can and will turn into a macroeconomic nightmare in true "Paradox of Thrift" fashion once or if everyone does it and this video explains why.
In a nutshell, you will find out what deleveraging is all about in approximately one minute, from definition to hopefully entertaining examples :)
No matter what angle you choose to view this situation from, the "elephant in the room" in terms of issues boils down to two questions:
1) Are governments and central banks trying to beat/defeat the business cycle?
2) Can they?
The answer to the first question tends to be yes because modern-day economics from the perspective of financial/economic calamities revolves around not repeating the mistakes of the Great Depression, with governments and central banks perceived as excessively passive prior to let's say the New Deal.
While we now know that being too passive results in a devastating deflationary environment, the intellectually honest answer to question two is this: we hope governments/central banks can defeat the business cycle but realistically speaking, we just don't know.
While history doesn't repeat itself, it does tend to rhyme and "new paradigms" which one one way or another had to do with defeating the business cycle have manifested themselves more than one, with let's say less than stellar results. As such, while it makes sense not to want to repeat the mistakes which led to the Great Depression, we have to be honest about admitting that humans haven't (thus far at least) proven to be very good at beating the business cycle and that the situation we find ourselves in might prove to be one where there isn't a "right" answer that leads to a painless outcome :(
In one minute, I've gone from definition to examples so as to explain the concept of unintended consequences properly.
Far too many times, for reasons which range from ignorance to ideology (as explained in this video, when referring to Robert K. Merton's work), over-simplification leads to negative scenarios which could have been avoided if the issue would have been viewed in a more complex manner.
Of course, one shouldn't assume unintended consequences can only be negative. Not at all. As yet again explained in the video, we also have let's say Adam Smith's invisible hand as a textbook example involving positive unintended consequences.
The bottom line is this: without meaningfully understanding and respecting the world around us, we will never truly "get" economics and that would be a shame :)
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Even if you do not consider USD replacement scenarios realistic at this point in time, it makes sense to at least spend a bit of time thinking about dollar alternatives as a creativity exercise.
In one minute, we'll be doing just that by analyzing gold, another currency or other currencies as well as other USD alternatives in order to figure out how things stand at this point in terms of contenders.
Realistically speaking, a currency doesn't lose its reserve status overnight but just as realistically or if you will historically speaking, the reserve status in question is hardly permanent, with once-powerful currencies now representing nothing more than chapters in economic history books, as explained in this video.
As such, even if you don't think that let's say gold or a basket of currencies will replace the US dollar anytime soon, at the very least allocating some brainpower toward analyzing potential scenarios might not be the worst idea in the world :)
The dollar strength side tends to be correct if we limit ourselves to analyzing recent history because indeed, the previous financial crisis (the Great Recession) made it clear that as far as today's monetary and financial status quo is concerned, even calamities which started in the United States (such as the Mortgage-Backed Security debacle) tend to lead to dollar strength as a result of the fast that frightened market participants see the dominant US dollar as a safe haven solution.
If we take several steps back through and dust off a few economic history books however, we cannot help but notice that as far as the long-term outlook is concerned, the US dollar crisis narrative does have its merits or in other words, let's just say it would be unwise to assume that the dominance of the US dollar is a given, a "new paradigm" that will stick around forever.
As explained in the video's quick section about the history of the eurodollar, the name has its origins in the period that followed WWII, a period which had the reconstruction of Europe in the spotlight, a reconstruction funded by... you've guessed it, a lot of US dollars, both directly through the Marshall Plan and indirectly through the exports of recovering European companies to the US, which revolved around them sending goods and receiving dollars in return.
Many observers make the mistake of underestimating the importance of the eurodollar market, of not realizing that we are dealing with a market in the double-digit trillions and including it in their decision-making process accordingly. This video explains, among many other things, why it's crucial not to be one of them :)
The OME video you're about to watch explains everything you need to know about these US stimulus payments, whether you live in the States or simply want to understand how things work when it comes to the world's #1 economy.
At the end of the day, the elephant in the room in terms of questions is inevitably this: was/is sending these stimulus checks a good idea?
Simply put, we do not know at this point. What we do know and as this video explains, however, is that these economic stimulus payments can be considered a let's call them Universal Basic Income or UBI experiment on the one hand and on the other hand, if history and a bit of economic common sense are to offer any guidance, the likelihood of us seeing more of them in the future is quite high.
The key to figuring out just that lies in understanding the difference between consumer price inflation and asset price inflation. The difference between the price of goods and services going up (as measured by metrics such as the Consumer Price Index or CPI) and the price of assets such as real estate and shares going up.
The name of the game when it comes to this comparison is, as illustrated in this video's thumbnail... well, following the money.
In approximately one minute, consumer price inflation and asset price inflation have been compared so that you have the knowledge you need to follow the money properly and understand that it ultimately all boils down to taking a step back and asking yourself what exactly happened (and didn't happen!) with the currency that has been "printed" since the Great Recession :)
Simply put, corporate welfare revolves around them getting the best of both worlds: when times are good, they make a lot of money (the privatization of profits) and when things turn sour, they get bailed out (the socialization of losses).
One of the end results is represented by the fact that in the context of the 2020 economic crisis, the average citizen now demands a larger portion of the generosity pie. As such, to move away from a corporate socialism framework, governments and central banks are pretty much forced to embrace policy choices that have results not just when it comes to the corporate sector but also the real world.
This, however, begs the question: just how far can this increasing generosity go until inflation problems (problems pretty nobody seems to be worrying about at this point in time due to deflation being the number one concern) start surfacing?


