Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: thebitcoinlayer.com
In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate hikes. He explains why the yield curve flattening from 50 to 37 basis points on the week is the move he finds most important, how a flattening curve prices growth out of the economy, and why Michael Howell's read frames it as a premium for safe assets. Nik also revisits the recession call TBL got wrong in 2022, and covers bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000 this week.
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
Timestamps:
00:00 Warsh at Jackson Hole and the two-year yield
02:29 The point of no return on a hiking cycle
04:48 What the yield curve says about growth
07:11 The recession call we got wrong
09:31 Why the curve is flattening now
11:56 Michael Howell and the premium for safe assets
13:02 Duration, and why you buy the ten-year
15:18 bitcoin versus gold breaks its left shoulder
16:30 bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000
17:43 What we do at the Bitcoin Layer
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: thebitcoinlayer.com
In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate hikes. He explains why the yield curve flattening from 50 to 37 basis points on the week is the move he finds most important, how a flattening curve prices growth out of the economy, and why Michael Howell's read frames it as a premium for safe assets. Nik also revisits the recession call TBL got wrong in 2022, and covers bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000 this week.
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
Timestamps:
00:00 Warsh at Jackson Hole and the two-year yield
02:29 The point of no return on a hiking cycle
04:48 What the yield curve says about growth
07:11 The recession call we got wrong
09:31 Why the curve is flattening now
11:56 Michael Howell and the premium for safe assets
13:02 Duration, and why you buy the ten-year
15:18 bitcoin versus gold breaks its left shoulder
16:30 bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000
17:43 What we do at the Bitcoin Layer
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
