The Fourth Turning: Why American Crisis May Last Until 2030 Hedgeye 2017-04-01 | Above is a video narrated by Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe describing the generational theory put forth in his 1997 classic “The Fourth Turning,” co-authored with William Strauss. Neil’s work has influenced politicians from Newt Gingrich to Al Gore and all of it culminates in a grand theory advanced in The Fourth Turning. According to Time magazine, President Donald Trump’s influential chief political strategist Steve Bannon was “captivated” by the book.
McCullough & Joseph: Be Careful of Artificial Intelligence Hype Hedgeye 2023-07-06 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comChatGPT and Bing app downloads have slowed in recent weeks. It remains to be seen whether this is a seasonal blip or a larger-scale deceleration, but Ami Joseph and Keith McCullough see plenty of reason to pump the brakes on the AI hype train. “If I were on the board of a company, I’d say we need to understand how this is going to change our services,” explains Hedgeye’s Tech analyst in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “I don’t know in this environment if I’m going to drop everything and put billions of dollars at play if I don’t know that I’ll get ROI on that in the next three years.” McCullough said from his experience, AI chatbots haven’t yet achieved a level of accuracy that makes them a reliable option for the masses. “You’re going to lose a lot of people the minute that [Chatbots] say something that is patently false, because people obviously don’t trust anyone anyway in this day and age,” adds Hedgeye’s CEO. Watch the full clip above.
Capital Allocation Pro: Private Market Research for the Masses Hedgeye 2023-07-06 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlWhile stepping in as guest host of The Macro Show this morning, David Salem gave a glimpse into the investing wisdom he will soon provide in Hedgeye’s new product Capital Allocation Pro. In this clip, a subscriber asked if Hedgeye’s Director of Capital Allocation plans to cover private market investing in addition to public markets. “The Fed in their wisdom (or not) have not permitted certain forms of private investing to be made available to the masses,” Salem explains. “That’s changing pretty rapidly, and because it’s changing rapidly, it behooves us in the new service to spend a decent chunk of time on this. It’s harder to get the data, we have some good data sources we’re adding to over time. But the answer’s emphatically yes.” This is just one form of insight Salem will share with subscribers when the new product rolls out later this year. For more information or to sign up for Capital Allocation Pro, email support@hedgeye.com.
Weekly Notebook Review | June 27, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-07-05 | Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comEach week, Hedgeye’s Robert McGroarty (@HedgeyeRJM on Twitter) hosts #HedgeyeNation to review key data sets, signals and events that jump out of their Notebooks.
McCullough: A ‘Huge Deceleration’ In U.S. Economic Data Hedgeye 2023-07-05 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlThe U.S. economy isn’t “picking up steam,” as some Wall Street bulls proclaim, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says. Despite many investors away from their screens (during this low volume, holiday shortened week), the bearish ISM report released on Monday should not go unnoticed. “Employment not only sliced through the particularly important level of 50, which says you’re in contraction, but it did it like a hot knife through butter,” explains Hedgeye’s CEO in this clip from The Macro Show. “That’s a huge deceleration, and don’t forget we have a jobs report pending on Friday. This is where people who don’t understand the manifestation of recessions get caught offside.” Meanwhile, it’s early but the 16 S&P 500 companies to report Q2 earnings thus far are down -21% year-over-year. “That’s not a recession – that would be unfair – that’s a depression in earnings,” McCullough adds. “That’s why they need to believe in AI or something that’s a story, because the gravitational story is that the economy continues to slow.” Watch the full clip above.
Weekly Notebook Review | June 21, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-07-05 | Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comEach week, Hedgeye’s Robert McGroarty (@HedgeyeRJM on Twitter) hosts #HedgeyeNation to review key data sets, signals and events that jump out of their Notebooks.
McGough: Retail Earnings Expectations Still Too High | $XRT Hedgeye 2023-07-03 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlIn this clip from The Macro Show, guest host Brian McGough walks through the Top 3 things he’s keeping an eye on in the abysmal Retail sector. “A couple of clients were like, ‘Brian, you said you’d be getting more bullish around the May-June time period.’ I did say that. The plans changed because earnings expectations just didn’t come down enough,” explains Hedgeye’s Retail analyst. “I can count on one hand the number of companies who actually lowered expectations to a realistic level in the back half of this year.” Watch the full clip above.
McCullough: Gap Widening Between Haves and Have-Nots Hedgeye 2023-06-30 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlKeith McCullough pulled no punches in discussing what’s often considered a taboo subject on Wall Street. In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s CEO highlights several examples of disparities between the haves and have-nots in the U.S. “Understanding and respecting that this is the country you live in and that this is getting worse is probably one of the most critical realizations you need to have,” McCullough explains. Watch the full clip above.
McCullough: Critical To Execute (Incrementally) On Positions Hedgeye 2023-06-29 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlIn this important coaching lesson, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough implores investors to rethink how they position their precious capital, whether they have a $1,000,000 position on, or a $1,000 position.In other words, think in basis point moves."Executing incrementally and having rules is critical to what you do," McCullough explains in this clip from The Macro Show. "Go to Hedgeye University. The time you spend educating yourself will reduce your time whining and complaining because you get sizing and timing wrong.” “I'm not going to coach you down. I'm going to coach at a high level and explain the components."
McCullough: ‘Sadistic’ To Say U.S. Economy Is In Great Shape Hedgeye 2023-06-29 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comFollowing the reduction of SNAP benefits in March, households earning less than $50K cut back on grocery spending for the third month in a row. “62% said cancellation of benefits significantly impacted their budgets, so that’s a negative for all supermarkets,” explains Daniel Biolsi in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “What you have here in America is the most divided gap between elites and those who have no money left,” adds Keith McCullough. “It’s kind of sadistic and disgusting to watch Wall Street pundits say the economy’s in great shape.” Watch the full clip above.
McCullough: How to Risk Manage Gold Hedgeye 2023-06-28 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlA (very) important coaching tip from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: Stop panicking over short term moves, and start positioning your assets for the full investing cycle.As Keith explains in this clip from The Macro Show, successful users of the Hedgeye investing process understand that recent dips in gold are buying opportunities - not times to freak out and sell."In and around all these moves, what are you actually doing?" McCullough asks. "It's so easy to explain it, but it's so hard for some of you to execute on it, but you've got to find a way. You've got to get the emotions out."
Options Gone Wild: A Real Conversation w/ Mike Green Hedgeye 2023-06-28 | For more great investing content, visit Hedgeye.com: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Join Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a new Real Conversation with Mike Green, Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management.Mike is a thought leader on market structure, options flows and the risks of passive investing. It's Mike's contention that the rise of quantitative trading strategies – delta hedging dynamics, volatility-controlled rebalancing, and market cap distortions – have altered financial markets forever.Keith and Mike will discuss these dynamics and much more in this wide-ranging conversation about what comes next for financial markets. Buckle up and tune in. This conversation promises to be a wild ride.
A 2-Minute Tutorial on Nonsensical Agriculture Narratives $DE Hedgeye 2023-06-27 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comHedgeye Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver cautioned investors not to overreact to the latest ‘sky-is-falling’ drought narratives that may have been behind recent dramatic moves in commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans – and how that correlates to equipment companies like Deere ($DE)“The funny thing about doing this for a while is that every single year I’ve covered ag and farm equipment, at some point everyone is panicked about droughts, yields or whatever it is,” Van Sciver explains in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “The reality is that isn’t very often. What ends up driving crop price is policy like with ethanol, interest rates or with currency.”Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responded, “I’m really at a loss for words, almost a quarter century into this, how people like Jim Cramer and these single shot CNBC-types know everything about everything with no teammates, and or experience themselves. Like I’d know what to do with Deere without Jay Van Sciver.”Watch the full exchange above.
McCullough: Broadening Bull Market? Bullsh*t. Hedgeye 2023-06-27 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlFOMO-addled investors are seeking shelter in a small handful of mega-cap stocks. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough encourages subscribers in this clip from The Macro Show to look more closely underneath the hood. It’s not pretty.McCullough highlights the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the NASDAQ 100 Equal Weighted Index versus the QQQ ETF."That's a bear market, not a broadening of strength," he says.
INFLATION: Cattle Prices Highest Since 1971, Bad News For Beef Prices Hedgeye 2023-06-26 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comIn this clip from Monday's edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Consumer Staples analyst Daniel Biolsi highlights what’s behind record high cattle prices and the impact beef prices are having on restaurants—fast casual in particular.Veteran Restaurants analyst Howard Penney adds that Shake Shack ($SHAK) is especially vulnerable with its "poor real estate decision.""I've been making the point for a year that this aggressive growth strategy by Shake Shack leads to poor real estate decisions," Penney says. "Why the hell were they opening a location in 2021 in a mall in San Francisco? They shouldn't have been.”
McCullough: Collapsing Oil Price Reveals #Quad4 Reality Hedgeye 2023-06-26 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlContrary to nonsensical narratives constantly being pumped on MSM, the price of oil continues to be one of the most powerful indicators (among many) of #Quad4 U.S. economic reality.Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough pulls no punches discussing the plummeting price of oil and what it portends on The Macro Show this morning."I just want every economist to tell me what that means," he says. "Is that demand accelerating? No, that's the cycle."
Steiner: Lower Rates Could Unlock Housing Inventory Stalemate Hedgeye 2023-06-23 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlIn this clip from Friday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner discusses a recent FHFA/Redfin survey that revealed a large percentage of potential home sellers are waiting for interest rates to come down before potentially listing their home on the market. The punchline: there's still a long ways to go before a potential "unlocking" of the existing home market."You're talking about a 2% drop just to get about a quarter of those thinking about listing off the fence," Steiner says. "Those are pretty big thresholds to improve the supply side."
The Macro Show [FULL FREE EPISODE] | June 22, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-06-22 | *This edition of "The Macro Show" originally aired live on June 22, 2023*Get 30 Days Free Access: info.hedgeye.com/yt-tms-1mofTurn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune in to Hedgeye's no-BS market webcast:✓ Everything you need to know before the market opens✓ Contrarian insight to get you ahead of big market moves ✓ Live viewer Q&A with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough✓ Replays available... access our archive of 1,000+ showsStart your free 30-day trial at: info.hedgeye.com/yt-tms-1mof
Steiner: (Finally) An Inflection Point In Housing? Hedgeye 2023-06-21 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comIn this clip from Wednesday’s edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Macro, Financials & Housing analyst Josh Steiner highlights new data points suggesting the U.S. residential housing environment is – finally – getting less bad.He highlights builder confidence, single-family housing data, and home prices.“Don’t get me wrong, these numbers are still down significantly year-over-year,” Steiner says. “But the comps on just about every housing series out there are going to get much easier in the back half of this year.”
WATCH | Important 5 Minute Investing Perspective From @KeithMcCullough Hedgeye 2023-06-21 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlAt the conclusion of today’s Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough spent five valuable minutes with subscribers conceptualizing the process/cycle relationship and where we are today. You can watch the full clip below. We’ve curated some of the more insightful key takeaways from Keith below as well.- The peak of the cycle for Commodities, Equities, Credit and Crypto was Q2 of 2021. All of it peaked. So, from the peak of the cycle, Phase I of this bear market is January to June 2022. We nailed that. In the meantime, everyone wanted their bubble back.- Currently, while you've had 7 stocks that have gone up (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Alphabet), the Russell 2000, at its lows, was down -30%. It's bounced to -24%. That's a broad definition of U.S. stocks and takes out the 7 stocks that have gone up.I'm not saying the 7 stocks that went up didn't happen. The AI narrative alongside Nvidia's recently reported numbers did happen. But that's not the economic cycle. That's innovation at a company and we'll see if that plays out over time.- Meanwhile, the CRB Index of commodities didn't even bounce. It's right at the cycle lows. Same with U.S. Retailers and Regional Banks. - When I look at everything, I have this sine curve of the peak emblazoned in my head. Always have, always will. There is no way to do Macro better than that. - I have a long history of this because I'm the only one that called 2008 and the turn in 2009. When we made the bear call in 2008, you have Warren Buffett buying in October of 2008 and everyone yelling at me saying, 'Who are you?' - This is your opportunity, where we're taking on adversity and getting the next wave of success.
What Amazon Tells Us About the Bear Market Hedgeye 2023-06-20 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlIn this clip from Tuesday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses the series of lower highs that Amazon ($AMZN) has made over the full investing cycle since its peak in November 2021."The consumer is now slowing at its fastest pace. GDP is going towards 1.0 and then sub-1.0," McCullough says. "So is Amazon the economy? Yeah."
Unscripted Equity Curiosity S3 E12: Turnings & Tech, w/ Hedgeyes Neil Howe Hedgeye 2023-06-17 | Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comFor more information on subscribing to our Sector Pro products (from Technology to China): accounts.hedgeye.com/productsThis Hedgeye podcast features sector heads Ami Joseph (@HedgeyeTech), Felix Wang (@HedgeyeChina) and Andrew Freedman (@HedgeyeComm) as they are joined by Hedgeye's Demography sector head and author Neil Howe (@HoweGeneration). They dig into the latest developments in A.I, the Asian markets and the impact of the writer's strike in the U.S. Neil gives his own unique perspective on these topics from a demographer's point of view.Neil's new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here, will be available July 2023. Pre-order your copy: https://t.co/84CpNtazL1Listen to more Hedgeye Podcasts on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or where you get your podcasts!
Keith McCullough Answers Thoughtful Questions on the Market Setup From Here Hedgeye 2023-06-16 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wml"I am going on 30yrs as an RIA. The Q&A with Keith on today's Macro Show was without a doubt some of the best insight I've gotten out of [Hedgeye] to date. Outstanding." - Brian N., Hedgeye SubscriberThe June 16th edition of The Macro Show went well into overtime as Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough answered thoughtful and pressing questions in a Macro Pro-exclusive question-and-answer session. And we're letting you listen in to the entire thing - for free.Hedgeye's Risk Manager-In-Chief answered everything from how RIA's open a position to getting clients to focus on Cycle-To-Date returns to a host of international ETFs. No stone was left unturned.And to bring it home, Keith emphasized: Hedgeye - and our process - isn't going anywhere."This is about far more than the last few months of a QQQ chart. Don't be silly. This is far more serious," McCullough says."This is about every dollar you've ever made, preserving and protecting it and not having drawdowns."
McCullough: This Signal is (Very) Bullish For Gold Hedgeye 2023-06-15 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlAn eagle-eyed subscriber to The Macro Show noted the change in the correlation between the dollar and gold on Thursday's edition. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough provided three reasons why the data pointed towards bullish signals for gold."That's the best thing you can buy on a volatility adjusted basis today," McCullough says.Watch the clip for more.
Adobe Goes From Wall Street ‘Darling’ to Ugly Stepchild $ADBE Hedgeye 2023-06-15 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comIn this clip from Thursday's edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Tech analyst Ami Joseph explains why Adobe ($ADBE) has lost its luster on Wall Street."The sell side has gone from loving this as a darling and almost slavishly attentive to Adobe, to now almost half the ratings of the street are on hold, which is like sell for the street. So, 45% of the street is on a hold rating," Joseph says."That's the set up with Adobe. It's just comps."
Beware of Bullish ‘AI’ Narrative B.S. In Tech Hedgeye 2023-06-14 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comIn this clip from Wednesday's edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Technology analyst Ami Joseph discusses a tech company that recently used "savvy Wall Street strategy" to take advantage of AI narratives and gain 30% after reporting earnings.Ami warns investors to recognize the difference between short-term narratives and long-term tail opportunities in Artificial Intelligence."People will chase narrative right over an AI top some time in the next few months, and suddenly there will be a gaping maw underneath," Joseph says.
New Old Wall Narrative → Rate Hikes Are Bullish. LOL Hedgeye 2023-06-14 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlIn this clip from Wednesday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough reiterates why the Fed raising rates into a slowdown is always bad for stocks - despite the latest (completely ridiculous) Old Wall narrative that it's a bullish catalyst."You're starting to see priced into the short end that the Fed could, better than a coin toss, raise rates in July - right in the heart of the worst earnings season you're going to see." McCullough says."Bullish? Good luck."Watch the clip for more.
The Macro Show [FULL FREE EPISODE] w/ Guest Host David Salem | June 5, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-06-13 | Get access to The Macro Show every day: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1*This episode originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on June 5, 2023*Our Managing Director of Capital Allocation David Salem recently hosted The Macro Show. If you’re not already familiar with David, trust us when we tell you that despite his humble demeanor, he is an impressive market veteran who’s had a similarly impressive and successful career in finance spanning multiple decades.In addition to being the former founding CEO/CIO at TIFF, he was also a Partner at GMO where he and Jeremy Grantham worked very closely together. In other words, he’s seen a lot. Interesting fact—David was a subscriber and power user of Hedgeye before joining our team. We are thrilled he’s wearing the Hedgeye jersey now!Get the smartest market show available with Hedgeye’s live daily, online video broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A.Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. More often than not, the show is hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. On the occasions that Keith isn’t hosting, another Hedgeye analyst fills the spot. Each broadcast brings you our real-time global macro market analysis, tracking trends in stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates across the globe.
McCullough: Learn From Your Mistakes, Don’t Add to Them Hedgeye 2023-06-13 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlEverybody makes mistakes. The key is to learn from them and avoid making the same mistake over and over again.A subscriber who veered from Keith McCullough’s process asked if he should take his losses now that he’s down -12%. “You’ve made mistakes that aren’t the mistakes that I’ve made,” Hedgeye’s Risk Manager In Chief explains in this clip from The Macro Show. “Now your question is, ‘Do I make another mistake, Keith, and at the top end of the range, do I cover and capitulate?’” McCullough adds: “Your problem is not unique, that’s the problem. So many people can only focus on QQQs because that’s what the other teams and Old Wall focuses on. You’ve really lost your way here.” Watch the full clip above.
Travel Trends Spell Trouble For U.S. Hotels Hedgeye 2023-06-13 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comBullish on Hotel stocks? Be careful, explains Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Sean Jenkins.An important trend is developing that isn’t positive for U.S. hotel operators. The amount of American travel volume abroad is up 8% over the past month, Jenkins explains. Meanwhile, inbound travel (i.e. international folks travelling to the U.S.) is down -20%, despite Covid protocols being scrapped for international visitors. “If you’re a U.S. hotel operator who over-earned from leisure customers because they couldn’t travel many places until late last summer, you’re facing really difficult comps this coming summer,” Jenkins explains in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “And you’re not getting the commiserate inbound visitation to offset the folks looking to travel outbound.” Keith McCullough adds: “Like I needed another fundamental and independent research data point that’s empirical as opposed to narrative-driven to get more negative on the U.S. retail and consumer environment.” Watch the full clip above.
McCullough: U.S. Retail Slowdown Is One For The Ages Hedgeye 2023-06-12 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlThe latest cover of Barron’s claims “the bull is back.” Keith McCullough isn’t buying it. He says it’s getting harder and harder to find any meaningful data points supporting that statement. “Very few things don’t look like everything else,” McCullough explains in this clip from The Macro Show. “Where could you be wrong? It’s like, where are you still right?” Headline retail sales’ year-over-year growth slowed from 7.4% in January to 1.6% in April and 0.6% in June, which McCullough says is “one of the biggest growth slowdowns ever.” “You see it. You may not feel it,” adds Hedgeye’s CEO.“Unless you were short Retail (XRT) the entire month of May, you killed that. But did you? Or were you stuck with the same old three or five positions? All I can do is try to help you with what I do.” Watch the full clip above.
Bud Light Is ‘Permanently Impaired’ (Target Not As Much) | $BUD $TGT Hedgeye 2023-06-09 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comShares of Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and Target (TGT) both dropped over -15% during the past month. Hedgeye analysts Daniel Biolsi and Brian McGough agree that the Bud Light boycott will have a much larger, long-term impact than the Target boycott. “You could argue Bud Light fired its customer, whereas with Target, did it fire its customer or did it just piss its customer of for a couple weeks?” McGough asks in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “They’re going to change out their pride merchandise over the course of a three-week time period here, and the customer will come back.” Target “has a lot of bad news in it,” but McGough says he wouldn’t press the short following Old Wall downgrades. Given consumer demographics and other factors, the popular retailer will likely recover much quicker than Bud Light. “For Bud Light, it’s different because it’s a permanent impairment,” Biolsi explains. “The product doesn’t change, right? That’s part of the problem, it’s a brand.” Watch the full clip above.
Weekly Notebook Review | Navigating the Seasons $SPY $QQQ $GLD $USD $TLT | June 7, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-06-08 | We open our notebooks to touch on everything from Europe to commodities as we navigate into the summer months. $SPY $QQQ $GLD $USD $TLTVisit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comEach week, Hedgeye’s Robert McGroarty (@HedgeyeRJM on Twitter) hosts #HedgeyeNation to review key data sets, signals and events that jump out of their Notebooks.
McGough: Student Loan Debt Spells Trouble for Retail Hedgeye 2023-06-08 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlThe U.S. Retail sector is poised to go from bad to worse this summer. When student loan payments resume this summer, struggling U.S. consumers will have even more reason to cut back on their discretionary spending. “You have a lot of households where the husband and the wife are both carrying student debt,” explains Brian McGough in this clip from The Macro Show. “Ultimately, you get a 1.7% rate of consumer spending hit, which is going to be very, very damaging.” If you think recent college graduates will be the only demographic affected, think again. “People 25 and under only hold 6.4% of student debt,” McGough adds. “35-49 year-olds hold the biggest slug at 39%, and then 50+ year-olds hold a quarter of it. So, who does this impact? It impacts everybody.” To see which retailers McGough believes are most at risk, subscribe to The Macro Show and Retail Pro: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2022-02-03/trbh6f
Why Amazon May Hurt Telecom Industry Titans | $AMZN $T $VZ $TMUS Hedgeye 2023-06-07 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlMake no mistake—many telecommunications companies are already in distress from a credit perspective. Andrew Freedman says an industry that’s “become uninvestable for a lot of people” would face additional headwinds if Amazon’s interest in mobile services comes to fruition. “If all of a sudden you introduce a fourth player into the marketplace where growth is already slowing, and it’s already very competitive, and you have very strong consumer brand that can just bundle with an existing service, that is a really big problem,” explains Hedgeye’s Communications analyst in this clip from The Macro Show. “It doesn’t seem like it’s happening, but it could result in share loss, and more competition, which would probably mean AT&T would have to invest more just to grow the business, which would mean they’d have to reduce the dividend,” Freedman adds.Watch the full clip above.
Here We Go Again: Binance & Coinbase In SEC’s Crosshairs Hedgeye 2023-06-06 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlIn a 24-hour span, the SEC sued both Binance and Coinbase—the two largest cryptocurrency platforms in the U.S. With the debt ceiling now resolved, Hedgeye senior policy analyst JT Taylor believes the government may be gearing up to make crypto regulation a priority. “They’re basically alleging Binance is operating in a number of ways not dissimilar to how FTX was operating,” explains Josh Steiner in this clip from The Macro Show. “In other words, co-mingling customer funds in different vehicles and artificially inflating trade volumes within their U.S. arm.” News of the Binance lawsuit sent Bitcoin prices falling more than 6% Monday. Then, Tuesday morning, the SEC announced it was suing Coinbase for acting as an unregistered broker. “It’s not inconsistent with how the SEC’s acted toward the broader crypto space for some time now,” Steiner adds. “They’ve been moving pretty aggressively.” Watch the full clip above.
Apple Announcement Isn’t a Gamechanger … Yet | $AAPL Hedgeye 2023-06-06 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comDon’t expect Apple’s new Vision Pro headset to shake up the tech landscape – or the stock market – just yet. Just as the iPhone required several refinements over the past 15 years, Hedgeye Tech analyst Ami Joseph says this new product will take time to perfect.Investors are clearly unimpressed so far as well. Shared of $AAPL dropped to under $178 at market open on Tuesday.“I think there’s something here. I just think it’s the beginning of the road,” Joseph explains in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye.“It still looks like a fairly clunky thing. You’re basically still putting ski goggles on your head in the middle of your workday or living room. It’s a little bit of a strange thing, and there’s a wire that comes out to the battery pack. I think all of those things will obviously change over time.” Watch the full clip above.
Salem: How I’d Advise An Institution On Precious Metals Exposure Hedgeye 2023-06-05 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wml“How would you advise an institution on precious metals exposure here? How do you view the precious metals space relative to years past?That was one of the questions posed to Hedgeye’s Director of Capital Allocation David Salem during the Q&A portion of The Macro Show this morning. Salem provides a thoughtful response to the subscriber’s question.“People look at it differently,” Salem explains. “I’ve always looked at Gold as a kind of dual-purpose hedge. It can be a hedge against hyperinflation at one extreme, and it can be a hedge—and historically it has been—against extended deflations on the other. Most of the middle has not been an attractive environment for Gold relative to everything else.”“Where we’ve been for essentially the majority of my career, with some exceptions, is that very attractive middle where you haven’t needed a hedge against hyperinflation, and you haven’t needed one against an extended deflation, as distinct from deflation.”“Now I think the tide has turned…”Click above to watch Salem’s full answer.
Steiner: Bank Failure Blowback → Regulations Coming? Hedgeye 2023-06-05 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comIn this clip from Monday’s edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Financials and Macro analyst Josh Steiner discusses the possibility of regulations and further scrutiny on banks – big and small – following failures earlier this year.“Now you’ve got the regulators tightening the screws further, which is what they normally do in response to crises,” Steiner says.
Unscripted Equity Curiosity S3E11: Beer Wars, The Bud Light Impairment w/ Hedgeyes Daniel Biolsi Hedgeye 2023-06-03 | Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comFor more information on subscribing to our Sector Pro products (from Technology to China): accounts.hedgeye.com/productsThis Hedgeye podcast features sector heads Ami Joseph (@HedgeyeTech), Felix Wang (@HedgeyeChina) and Andrew Freedman (@HedgeyeComm) as they are joined by Hedgeye's Consumer Staples sector head Daniel Biolsi (@Hedgeye_Staples). Daniel dives deep into his sector, hitting on the latest Bud Light news, the Buyside vs. Sell-Side process and the current outlook on egg prices.Listen to more Hedgeye Podcasts on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or where you get your podcasts!
Van Sciver: The Economic Reality Hurting Industrials Stocks | $XLI Hedgeye 2023-06-02 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comA Goldman Sachs note called yesterday’s ISM report “better than feared.” That’s one way of interpreting seven straight months of contractionary manufacturing data. Jay Van Sciver and Keith McCullough prefer to believe in reality. “Regardless of what Goldman thinks, the dynamic in the cycle is that you have backlog orders from periods of the supply chain shortage that are substantially overpriced, very high margin,” Van Sciver explains in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) are reporting their highest margins ever. This is true cyclical history right now.” Watch the full clip above.
Real Conversation With Mark Gordon: The Great Energy Transition Hedgeye 2023-06-02 | For more great investing content, visit Hedgeye.com: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3The world is barreling toward a supply crisis. The human population has grown exponentially, and with it, our dependence on oil as an energy source.In this Real Conversation with Keith McCullough, Mark Gordon, co-founder of Ascent Funds, will diagnose the issues within this current dynamic and propose a better path forward. Mark is an experienced energy investment professional with a career spanning 20+ years in senior positions. He launched Ascent Funds in 2015 to take advantage of the global energy cycle.This is a pivotal moment for global energy supply, and much of the world remains uninformed. Forward-thinking investors will not want to miss the insights Mark shares in this webcast.
Weekly Notebook Review | All Eyes on the US10/2YC & Quad 4! $SPY $QQQ | May 31, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-06-01 | Biggest topic of interest on #WeeklyNotebookReview today revolved around UST Yields. Stick with the signal and, if its not clear cut, go hunt somewhere that's bullish/bearish trade + Trend. The decision is yours, as @thousandairefx reminded us!Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comEach week, Hedgeye’s Robert McGroarty (@HedgeyeRJM on Twitter) hosts #HedgeyeNation to review key data sets, signals and events that jump out of their Notebooks.
McCullough: ‘You Don’t Need To Have View On AI To Make Money’ Hedgeye 2023-06-01 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlFriendly Reminder: You don’t have to chase Nvidia and AI narratives. As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from The Macro Show, there are other ways to make money in Tech ($XLK) without forming a strong opinion on artificial intelligence. “I don’t have to believe what people believe on AI, nor do I need to have a position,” says Hedgeye’s Risk Manager in Chief. “If you’re fascinated with that, that’s one thing. But if you’re so fascinated that you’re taking away from your precious time of day to do everything else, you’re totally screwing it up.” Between McCullough’s Real-Time Alerts and the longs and shorts Ami Joseph shares in Technology Pro, Hedgeye provides subscribers plenty of sound Tech research without chasing the latest bubble. Subscribe to Technology Pro to receive Ami Joseph’s complete research on the Tech sector.
Weekly Notebook Review | Portfolio Construction + Market Setup $SPY $QQQ | May 24, 2023 Hedgeye 2023-05-31 | Featuring special guest Mike Taylor (@Mike_Taylor1972 on Twitter). We touch on how to effectively construct your personal portfolio, as well as, discussing the current market setup.Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content: app.hedgeye.comEach week, Hedgeye’s Robert McGroarty (@HedgeyeRJM on Twitter) hosts #HedgeyeNation to review key data sets, signals and events that jump out of their Notebooks.
McGough: This Earnings Disaster Is Another Sign Of Consumer Recession $AAP Hedgeye 2023-05-31 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comBOOM.Shares of Advanced Auto Parts plummeted to a 10-year low Wednesday following an earnings report that fell (far short) of expectations. “This is the big headline in retail this morning. This stock is now down 30%,” explains Brian McGough in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “If you’re looking at dumpster diving buying stocks, I would not touch Advanced Auto Parts.” McGough said the company is cutting price because it’s losing share to competitors AutoZone and O’Reilly Auto Parts. “There’s no way it can structurally close the gap on O’Reilly,” McGough adds. “It’s like me saying I can slam dunk a basketball. I can’t do it. I’m 5’6”. This company will just never get it done.” “Valuation isn’t the catalyst. Momentum of the business is. The rate of change at the top line, the quad that we’re in, the consumer recession that we’re entering,” Keith McCullough says. “We can only say it six months ago and repeat it today, but the fact of the matter is we’ve been saying it for going on 18 months.” Watch the full clip above.
McCullough: Stay (The Hell) Away From Value Traps Hedgeye 2023-05-31 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlWhen a stock drops over 30% in a single day, some people jump at the opportunity to buy low. But Keith McCullough reminds investors, a cheap stock can always get cheaper. In fact, that’s how bag holders are born. “Those are called value traps,” Hedgeye’s CEO explains in this clip from The Macro Show. “There are many, many more of those than there are takeouts this morning. Let’s just be clear.” McCullough adds: “One classic mistake is value buyers come in too early before the cycle’s bottomed. This happened in 2001, this happened in 2008, and this is happening again. There’s a much, much longer list of new lows than there are these four to five stocks ripping to new highs.” Watch the full clip above.
Van Sciver: Time To Look At Defense Stocks Hedgeye 2023-05-30 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comDefense industry stocks have underperformed, in part because of concerns that spending would be slashed in the debt ceiling showdown. Now that a resolution appears to be in place, Jay Van Sciver and Keith McCullough see bullish opportunities. “The reality is, within the Industrials sector ($XLI), defense names tend to be very good Quad 4 performers,” Van Sciver explains in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye. “They tend to have good cashflow, they tend to not be as cyclically exposed.” “What the signal saw was the risk of defense spending cuts, not actual defense spending cuts,” McCullough adds. “Now, you get things that are oversold that are bullish from a long-term Tail perspective (three years or less in duration) that have lost their immediate-term Trade and Trend momentum. Those quite frequently are the ones to buy because you get an event risk that goes away that wasn’t actually true.” To watch Van Sciver’s “Best Ideas” roundup of defense stocks at 2:00pm ET Wednesday, subscribe to Industrials Pro: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2022-02-03/trbh5r
Signal Strength: How Keith McCullough Identifies Longs & Shorts Hedgeye 2023-05-30 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlWhile most Americans spent Memorial Day outside grilling and soaking up the sun, Keith McCullough stuck to his process, going line by line through an extensive list of stocks to evaluate signal strengths. It’s a time-consuming task, but the weekend grind pays off when the market reopens."If people take days off, guess who gets to do better today?," asks Hedgeye's Risk Manager in Chief. "I do, because I did the work. I put in the reps. Did you?"In the clip above, Hedgeye’s Risk Manager In Chief gives a general overview of his bullish and bearish criteria. To hear which stocks fall into each category, subscribe to The Macro Show.
What Does Nvidia’s Rally Means For Tech Stocks? $NVDA $XLK Hedgeye 2023-05-26 | Subscribe to other Hedgeye Products Here:The Macro Show: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-02-26/dcysv1Risk Ranges: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wm2Early Look: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wmlDoes Nvidia’s (NVDA) 25%+ single-day rally change the outlook for Tech stocks? Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to this subscriber question in this clip from The Macro Show.Watch the full clip above.
Simone Buries MPW Bagholders for “Lying and Denying” Hedgeye 2023-05-26 | For more information on subscribing to The Call @ Hedgeye: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-09-13/jj9wh8For more FREE investing videos: info.hedgeye.com/l/764243/2021-08-11/h1lpc3Get access to Hedgeye's FREE Market Brief newsletter: hedgeye.com/marketbriefSign up for Hedgeye University FOR FREE: university.hedgeye.comDefenders of Medical Properties Trust (MPW) claim critics of the company are running a “short and distort” campaign. Hedgeye REITs analyst Rob Simone counters with a more fitting description of defenders of MPW: “lie and deny.”“All these jokers who can’t get out of their own way, literally can’t do anything right, just keep lying and denying, and I’m going to keep posting on my Twitter every single one of your lies,” Simone says in this clip from The Call @ Hedgeye.Watch the full clip above.
