Lines on Maps Extra
Do Russian Soldiers Only Survive 30 Minutes on Ukraine’s Frontline?
updated
0:00 Opening Remarks
0:24 US/EU Defensive Line Construction
6:35 Will Zelensky Wear a Suit?
7:02 Will Any of These Summits Result in a Deal?
10:16 Does the U.S. Have Any Leverage Left?
14:13 Economic Concessions to Russia
18:07 Concerns for Russian Border States
23:05 Russia's Post-War Economic Problems
28:25 Academic Papers on the Russia-Ukraine War
29:30 Physical Risks to Putin for Going to Alaska
32:24 The Optics of Trump's Warm Reception
35:09 How Am I Doing?
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/67/events/58020
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71891
In the eve of a summit in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Ukraine experiences trouble along the eastern front, and tariffs hang over India. This video examines all three of these points. Plus comments on water and how much a book can protect you from a nuclear explosion.
0:00 Introduction
0:23 Effectiveness of Summit without Ukraine and Europe
9:52 Pokrovsk Breakthrough and the Summit
14:53 The Witkoff Misunderstanding
22:49 What If the EU Sanctioned India?
27:48 Will US Sanction Remittances to India?
34:30 Why Tariffs on India and Not China?
40:39 Comments from a US Importer of Indian Goods
42:40 Who Pays for a Tariff?
47:32 Price Adjustments and Tariffs
53:35 How to Have Good Policy Debates and the Role of Social Scientists
56:18 Does the Location of a Summit Matter?
57:42 My Favorite Water
58:08 Will My Books Protect You from Nuclear Weapons?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55006
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/77717
You can read the op-ed here: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/what-drones-can-and-cannot-do-battlefield
0:00 The Rapid Proliferation of Drone Warfare
1:55 The Offense/Defense Balance on the Ukrainian Frontlines
3:36 The Ongoing Russian Offensive
6:21 Drone Attacks on Ukrainian Cities
7:10 Cost-Effective Solutions
8:42 Counter-Counter Drone Strategies
9:43 Destroying Drone Production
12:40 Combined Arms Strategies in the Israel-Iran War
14:12 U.S. Drone Investments
17:05 The Most Durable Legacy Weapons
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76879
You can read Hendrix's explainer here: piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/why-oil-markets-shrugged-us-bombing-iran
0:00 The Changing Nature of Oil Markets
1:35 Where the Oil Markets Were Before the War
2:48 Historical Concerns about War Against Iran and Oil Shocks
4:43 Evolution in the Geography of Oil Exports
6:35 What Happened with Oil Markets as the Bombs Fell
8:25 Is There a Disconnect Between Analysts and Markets?
10:56 The Rise of the Western Hemisphere Oil
12:35 Venezuela's Oil Picture
13:55 The Bifurcated Global Oil Market
16:33 How Would China Replace Lost Iranian Oil?
19:17 Iran's Strategic Limitations
22:59 A Comprehensive Narrative to Explain What Happened
28:01 End of Video Nonsense
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Khamenei.ir:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/354/events/55769
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70746
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72100
0:00 Bomb Bomb Ping Pong
0:58 Why Haven't Oil Prices Spiked?
5:02 Will Iran Stick with a Minimalist Response?
8:21 Could Iran Conduct a Container/Drone Attack?
9:50 Would Closing the Strait of Hormuz Lead to a Full-Scale War?
12:28 How Would We Find Out if Iran Hid Its Enriched Uranium?
14:22 Can Israel and the U.S. Impose a Regime Change in Iran?
18:48 Why Doesn't Russia Give Iran a Nuke?
23:51 Why Didn't the U.S. Stop North Korea's Nuclear Program?
26:53 Does the U.S. Intervention in Iran Risk an Invasion of Taiwan?
31:39 Why Should We Bother Modeling Hypotheticals?
35:48 Could the NATO 5% Spending Lead to a Preventive War?
40:35 Why Does EVERYTHING Have to Be Lines on Maps?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), EU, and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Khamenei.ir:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988
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0:00 A Potential U.S. Withdrawal
1:20 The Benefits Troop Deployments
2:42 Hidden Direct Military Benefits
6:52 Public Opinion and Persuasion
13:34 Tripwires
17:40 Signaling Credibility
24:06 Death Metal (Seriously)
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
0:00 War Complications
0:40 What Closing the Strait of Hormuz Would Do
7:44 Can Iran Shut Down Hormuz without a Navy?
14:13 A Third Term for Donald Trump
21:45 How the Fall of Assad Led to the Israel-Iran War
28:54 Russia and Ukraine's War of Attrition
36:12 Is Iran Still Producing Drones for Russia?
43:49 The Role of Ideology in War
54:50 Will I Ever Do YouTube Fulltime?
0:00 The Upcoming NATO Spending Surge
1:32 Defense Spending as a Collective Action Problem
2:14 NATO’s Current Spending Issues
2:57 Strategic Complementarities in Defense Spending
4:42 The Benefits Beyond Specialization
5:45 Current NATO Complementarities
7:55 How NATO Coordinates Complementarities
11:31 Using Complementarities to Become a NATO Member
12:52 Ukrainian Complementarities
13:47 Using Complementarities to Get to 6%
17:34 Complementarities in Low-Level Conflict
18:51 How Complementarities Enhance Intervention Credibility
23:57 How Complementarities Reduce Entrapment Concerns
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):
By Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office
flickr.com/photos/foreignoffice/15141138535
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):
By Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken:
flickr.com/photos/ministeriebz/54349932686
0:00 Putting Operation Rising Lion in Context
0:54 The Closest Historical Parallels
1:39 Scope of Earlier Bombing Runs
2:10 Israel's Prior Operations Against Iran
3:04 Details of Iran's Program
3:28 What Stuxnet Did
4:30 The Current Ladder of Escalation
5:58 The Grey Zone of Conflict
8:41 Why Did Israel Leave the Grey Zone?
10:14 Why Did Israel Begin in the Grey Zone?
13:07 Quarter, Half, and Full Measures
13:44 The Broader Global Context
16:15 Closing Thought: The Difficulty of Prediction in IR
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Khamenei.ir:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61517
The big news for this week was supposed to be about a sanctions bill coming to the floor of the United States Senate. Despite Ukraine's splashy pair of attacks, it may still play a bigger role in coercing Russia. This video looks into the bill and the role of secondary sanctions against China. If passed and implemented, it would significantly reduce the Kremlin's ability to fund the war.
Link to the bill here: congress.gov/119/bills/s1241/BILLS-119s1241is.pdf
0:00 A New Sanctions Strategy
3:14 What's in the Bill
10:17 Sanctioning Foreign (Non-Russian) Individuals
12:15 Secondary Sanctions
17:51 Questions Regarding Sanctions Imposition
19:28 How Will Russia Respond to the Sanctions?
24:40 Will China and India Back Down?
33:46 Will the Bill Become a Law?
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Security Services of Ukraine:
https://ssu.gov.ua/novyny/sbu-pokazala-unikalni-kadry-spetsoperatsii-pavutyna-u-rezultati-yakoi-urazheno-41-viiskovyi-litak-stratehichnoi-aviatsii-rf-video
https://ssu.gov.ua/novyny/sbu-provela-novu-unikalnu-spetsoperatsiiu-i-vtretie-vrazyla-krymskyi-mist-tsoho-razu-pid-vodoiu
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62777
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70746
Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb sent shockwaves through Russia. But the impact is also reverberating around the world, as all militaries now have to grapple with the possibility that smuggled drones could attack their own military assets or infrastructure. This video answers some of your questions about the attack, focusing on the broader impact as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine.
0:00 The Broader Impact of Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb
0:47 Is the Best Comparison Pearl Harbor?
6:59 What Costs Did Russia Suffer from the Attack?
10:06 Is a Peace Deal Closer Now?
15:17 Is Russia's Nuclear Triad in Serious Trouble?
17:49 Is this the Biggest Event of the War So Far?
19:08 Can Russia Conduct the Same Attack on Ukraine?
23:58 Why Didn't Ukraine Attack Oil Facilities Instead?
25:15 Did Anyone Help Ukraine Conduct the Attack?
27:24 Could Ukraine Use the Same Tactic to Assassinate Putin?
30:59 Is Any Military Not Concerned about the Attack?
32:13 Will There Be a Third Book?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073
You can read the report here: armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf
0:00 The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment
1:14 What Exactly Is the Report
6:32 The Report's Contents and Trump's Prioritization
10:48 Border Security
15:38 Russia's Axis of Influence
17:15 The Big Picture: China
23:25 The Big Picture: Russia
25:57 The Big Picture: Iran
29:24 The Big Picture: North Korea
30:56 China's Individual Goals
39:00 Russia's Individual Goals
43:14 Iran's Individual Goals
49:54North Korea's Individual Goals
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70746
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71452
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76450
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76879
0:00 What Is the Golden Dome?
1:38 Technological Problems with the Golden Dome
11:31 Missile Shields and Winning Arms Races
15:54 Countermeasures and No Net Benefits
28:47 Strategic Fallacies of Missile Defense
32:02 How Golden Dome Affects Crisis Bargaining
39:44 Golden Dome and Preventive War
43:26 The Risk of Accidental Nuclear War
47:43 Problems with Nuclear Negotiations
53:41 Problems with Funding
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):
By IDF Spokesperson's Unit:
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Operation_Guardian_of_the_Walls,_May_2021._LXXIX.jpg
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Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Khamenei.ir:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65973
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72034
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73255
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76450
0:00 Who Is Stringing Whom Along?
1:59 The Argument in Brief
6:47 Trump’s Disposition Upon Entering Office
9:31 The Initial Bargaining Strategies
17:58 The Evolution of String Theory
28:12 Direct Evidence of Trump’s Knowledge
30:38 Trump’s Endgame
35:26 Problems with Trump’s String Game
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55006
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58014
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71528
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73585
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75623
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073
A report from Bloomberg indicates that the Kremlin believes it can capture Ukraine's four eastern oblasts before the end of the year. Today, we discuss the plausibility of that belief, what to think of the intelligence report itself, and what this means for Monday's phone call between Trump and Putin.
The Bloomberg article referenced: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-18/russia-ukraine-war-putin-heads-into-trump-call-confident-he-has-upper-hand
0:00 A Leak from the Kremlin?
1:06 The Kremlin's End-of-Year Expectation
16:27 Why Is the Kremlin Optimistic?
24:02 Trump's Phone Call Opinions
38:06 Putin's Phone Call Opinions
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71452
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76953
After the silliest week of diplomacy in recent memory, it is becoming even more obvious that Russia is not interested in a ceasefire. Today, I discuss how to bring Russia to the bargaining table and some other major concerns regarding the war.
0:00 Irrelevant Talks
0:42 How I Would Broker a Ceasefire
7:57 Could Trump Convince His Supporters to Support Ukraine?
13:33 Will the United States Fall Behind in Military Production?
18:09 Will Anything Happen in Ceasefire Talks without Putin?
20:12 What's the Benefit of Having Heads of State at a Ceasefire Summit?
22:04 How Will Russians React to Putin Withdrawing from Talks?
24:32 What It Would Take for European Troops to Join the War
27:17 What If France Donated a Year of Production to Ukraine?
28:01 Marco Rubio's and Keith Kellogg's Lines on Maps Knowledge
33:29 What Would Have Happened If Russia Captured Kyiv in 2022
35:13 Which Will Come First: GTA VI or a Ceasefire?
35:27 Ketchup or Mustard?
The appearance of NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995
0:00 NATO Entry Policy and Alliance Construction
1:18 How Modern Alliances Are Different from Older Alliances
2:11 Why Have Alliances Evolved over Time?
4:55 How Long It Takes to Join an Alliance
5:44 Why Could Sweden and Finland Join NATO So Quickly?
6:51 Interoperability Problems
8:42 Swivelchairing
10:16 Why Are Some Interoperability Problems Are Inevitable
11:06 Ukraine’s Path toward NATO
14:00 How Ukraine Is Shifting to NATO Kit
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), EU, and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490
0:00 Pakistan/India Bargaining Frictions
3:34 Risks of Spillover Wars
10:45 Why Global Tensions Are Rising Simultaneously
13:06 When a Crisis Becomes a War
16:27 Can India and Pakistan Totally Annihilate Each Other?
18:05 Who Has the Better Nukes?
19:44 How Nuclear Test Bans Affect the Crisis
24:00 Odds of a Nuclear Exchange
28:54 Will Nuclear Winter Offset Global Warming?
29:16 Will China Make a Move with Taiwan?
30:25 Odds of a U.S. War with China
33:36 Third-Party Consequences of a War
35:23 What the U.S./U.K. Trade Deal Means for the Liberation Day Tariffs
36:07 Why Nothing Happened with the Victory Day Parade
40:02 Does Ukraine Want a Peace Agreement?
41:35 How to Decide among All the Possible Peace Deals
43:59 Favorite Indian/Pakistani Food
44:56 What Did We Do to Deserve This?
49:12 Clowns and Circuses
49:21 The American Pope and American Politics
49:46 How I Know about Cricket
50:32 Freedom Bread
You can find Matt Fuhrmann's book "Influence without Arms" here: amzn.to/42ZSJpz. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them.)
0:00 Nuclear Issues in the News
1:10 Ukraine's Current Nuclear Status
2:30 The Fastest Way to a Ukrainian Nuclear Weapon
5:37 How Ukraine Could Use Uranium to Build a Nuclear Weapon
7:31 Differences between Modern and Older Weapons Programs
9:00 Hurdles to Weaponizing Enriched Uranium and Delivery of a Bomb
11:38 How Russia Could Detect Nuclear Activities
15:20 Potential Russian Preventive Action
16:40 Logistics of a Russian Strike
18:00 U.S. Responses to a Ukrainian Nuclear Weapons Program
20:33 How Ukrainian Nuclear Potential Affects a Potential Ceasefire
23:13 Deterrence by Proliferation versus Delayed Attack
24:52 The Bargaining/War Process with Iran
29:26 Logistics of Preventive Action against Iran
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), by Khamenei.ir:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988
Donald Trump finally unveiled his economic sanctions package. Almost every country in the world is a target, and the rates are substantial. Today's video looks at the consequences of the tariffs and what will happen next on the international stage and in U.S. domestic politics.
0:00 Liberation Day in America
1:06 What Are the Tariffs?
3:06 How Do the Tariffs Affect the Stock Market?
4:16 Who Will Lose (and Gain) from the Tariffs?
7:25 How Do the Tariffs Affect U.S. Elections?
0:00 A Very Busy Week
0:34 Was Signal Already Being Monitored?
4:14 Will Signalgate Reduce Intelligence Sharing?
6:04 Will Putin Break a Ceasefire?
8:46 Will Russia Settle Short of the Four Claimed Oblasts?
12:12 How Does Long-Run Uncertainty Affect Bargaining?
18:18 What’s Going on with the Black Sea Deal?
21:17 False Flag Risks with a Ceasefire?
23:58 Why Give Nuclear Umbrellas?
25:41 How Can Europe Improve Its Intelligence?
26:34 Should Europe Invest in Space?
26:47 What Wars Are Overstudied?
28:23 What Does Signalgate Tell Us about White House Rationality?
31:55 Do Arms Races Cause War?
34:58 Guesses for 2028 Nominations?
35:50 Signalgate versus Obama’s Tan Suit
36:08 What’s the Difference between a Historian and a Political Scientist?
37:43 Do Politicians Ask Academics for Advice?
39:02 How Did I Get into My Line of Work?
40:29 Do I Assign My Students My Videos?
41:04 Will I Make Videos about Ukraine’s Longer History?
41:22 What Would I Do as an Alternative Career?
43:50 What Subject Would I Like to Know More About?
45:11 What Font Do I Use
45:16 Favorite Pizza?
45:32 What Do I Do When Everything Is Going Wrong in the World?
A recent article includes information from U.S. intelligence assessments regarding what the Kremlin wants from the war. However, the reaction to it has conflated a country's desire to do something with its capacity to do so. This video explores the problem as it relates to the ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
You can read the article in question here: washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/03/13/putin-trump-ukraine-russia-ceasefire
0:00 A New Intel Report
0:51 What It Actually Said
1:44 What This Tells Us about a Ceasefire
6:48 What It Says by Not Saying Something
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58017
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71269
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73732
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75623
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76446
0:00 The US-Ukraine Summit
0:24 How Would a Ceasefire Affect Russian Domestic Politics?
5:17 Will a Ceasefire Increase Corruption in Russia’s Military?
8:21 Will Europe Send a Peacekeeping Mission? Will It Work?
14:10 Will Russia Accept European Peacekeepers?
16:48 Are We about to See a Last-Minute Scramble?
18:23 Is Russia’s Primary Goal to Capture the Black Sea?
20:38 Will Separatists Disrupt a Ceasefire?
22:17 How Will the World Interpret Trump Failing to Follow Through?
24:53 Was the Oval Office Meltdown a Setup?
29:00 Does the Lack of a Mineral Deal Mean that U.S. Overplayed Its Hand?
29:39 Would Ceasefire Power Shifts between Russia and Ukraine Offset?
31:39 How Has Marco Rubio Handled the Situation?
33:43 How Will We Know When Russian and Ukrainian Expectations Have Converged?
35:41 Why Is Saudi Arabia Sponsoring Peace Talks?
37:24 How Do I Make These Videos So Quickly?
38:32 Anagrams
0:00 The Trump Rollercoaster Continues
0:46 Can Trump Not Spend Congressionally Appropriated Money?
5:02 When Will the World Start Boycotting the United States?
7:08 Did Trump Lose His Leverage over Ukraine?
9:46 How Will Lost US Aid Hurt Ukraine?
12:19 Who Benefits More from a Ceasefire: Russia or Ukraine?
15:20 What’s Europe’s Timeline to Armament?
16:31 Will the Oval Office Meltdown Ultimately Have No Effect on the War?
18:28 Does the Mineral Deal Imply a Security Guarantee?
22:22 What Does the Rise in European Defense Company Stocks Tell Us?
23:43 How Do the Pacific Allies Feel about What’s Happening?
26:34 What Lines on Maps Says about Trade Wars
31:18 My Favorite Sports Teams
31:35 NATO Intervention Grab Bag
35:41 My Top 5 Video Games
0:00 What happened inside the Oval Office
0:55 Did US/UKR relations just implode?
2:36 Should still not listen to what leaders say?
4:46 Credibility of peace enforcement
8:08 Does it matter that the argument was public?
10:18 Why didn't Trump react the same way to Macron?
13:16 How will this change other negotiations?
16:23 Why do people think Russia can win versus Europe?
18:08 Is Trump playing 4D chess?
20:31 Can Russia offer the same mineral deal?
23:38 Rubio and Kellogg's positions
26:13 The United Nations resolution
28:50 Ukraine security guarantees
31:05 Does Ukraine still have hidden leverage?
31:55 Will European countries build nuclear weapons?
33:12 Why do Americans think cash is being sent to Ukraine?
34:14 Is Trump irrational?
34:58 Did Obama give Ukraine sheets?
35:45 My favorite soap?
0:00 Introduction
1:01 What Does U.S. Gain from Excluding Europe and Ukraine?
4:38 Why Is U.S. Public against Ukraine Aid?
10:45 Is Alienating Allies a Good Strategy?
13:47 Trump Capitulation and Taiwan
17:14 Could Ukraine Fight Effectively without the U.S.?
18:22 Why Weren't Europe and Ukraine Invited?
21:51 How Many Scripts Do I Have to Trash Now?
22:12 Can Ukraine Continue Refinery Strikes?
24:47 Hegseth Says No NATO for Ukraine
28:49 Game Theory and Irrationality
29:05 Did Nothing Substantive Come out of the Summit?
29:55 Marco Rubio's Role
31:23 What If I Were President?
33:49 Will There Be a Post-Ceasefire Insurgency?
36:13 Is the U.S. Just Doing an Intel Run?
36:37 Will Ukraine Benefit by Shedding U.S. Handcuffs?
37:46 Sumo Wrestling Metaphors
38:07 The World Is Absolutely Disgusting
Today's video looks at what has been going on along the eastern front for the last six months. Russia has been on the move, perhaps at great cost. Ukraine appears to have slowed the offensive but not stopped it. We will explore why Russia has taken ground and what Ukraine can do to stop it, along ten different dimensions.
0:00 A Look at the Eastern Front
1:01 Two Visuals that Illustrate the Problem
7:20 Russian Recruitment
15:44 Ukrainian Recruitment
20:38 Ukrainian Training
23:03 Ukrainian Defensive Allocations
25:43 Russian Redeployment
29:39 Ukrainian Rotations
37:09 Tree Lines
41:10 Ukrainian Fortifications
43:55 Ammo Discrepancy
45:44 The Kursk Gambit
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
On the main channel this week, I explained why roadblocks to Ukraine's entry into NATO gives Kyiv a short-run bargaining advantage against Russia. Today, we walk through the deeper mathematics behind the claim. Think of it as lines on maps, but hardcore. We also briefly examine whether any ceasefire agreement would be acceptable to Russia.
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58879
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73955
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75623
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073
Today, we cover the situation in the Red Sea. There is a ceasefire in Gaza, but will the international shipping industry see some relief? For now, it appears that the answer is no: Yemeni Houthis still have incentives to continue their attacks. However, they have slowed down over the last two months. Whether that is the result of U.S. efforts is unclear, though.
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Khamenei.ir:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988
By Kremlin.ru:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/61517
0:00 10 Days in Office
0:50 Trump's Grandiose Threats and U.S. Credibility
2:05 Secretary of State and Defense Picks
4:56 Trump's Protectionist Tariffs
6:41 Russian Assassination of Americans
9:16 NATO Deployments to Greenland
11:06 The Future of Nuclear Proliferation
14:43 Why No Protests in Belarus?
18:04 Surprising Actions from Trump So Far
20:24 Possibility of a Counter-Tariff Coalition
24:45 Investment in the U.S., Recession Risks, and Ukraine Aid
28:26 Will Tariff Threats Be Common Now?
30:25 First Country to Call Trump's Tariff Bluff
32:28 Deepseek: An Overview
38:02 What's the Goal of Halting Federal Aid and Grants?
38:57 Alienating Allies and Confrontation with China
40:58 Can Trump End the War in 90 Days?
43:20 Targeting Mexican Cartels
44:48 How Long Before Trump Cans Musk?
45:32 Trump and the Kursk Offensive
47:24 Which Countries Will Like Trump's Presidency?
48:06 Losing Position as the Primary Reserve Currency
49:43 Favorite Beatle?
49:54 Has Trump Influenced My Eating Habits?
50:57 My Next Feature Length Video
51:34 If a Line Exists on a Map, But Nobody Is around to See It, Does It Make a Border?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
A recent report from Reuters indicates that Russian oligarchs are increasingly upset about the economic situation in the country. Although that is not surprising, the more interesting claim is that they are tangibly affecting Putin's thinking about the situation. The end result has been a clash with the Russian Central Bank and a shift in thinking that Russia has accomplished most of its war goals. This video examines the article and what it says about U.S. strategy to counter the invasion.
The article in question: reuters.com/world/europe/putin-growing-concerned-by-russias-economy-trump-mulls-more-sanctions-2025-01-23
0:00 Intelligence Leak in the Kremlin
0:44 Who Are the Sources?
2:41 Backdrop: The Political Situation in Russia
4:41 Russian Elites' Growing Frustration with the War
6:35 Clashes with Russia's Central Bank
8:13 Trump's Sanctions Strategy
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56766
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57472
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/67/events/58020
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57014
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58879
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70746
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70859
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72081
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72453
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75251
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75623
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75894
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75909
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76145
0:00 Prospects of Peace Deal with Ukraine and Russia
2:06 Trump's Main Priority
3:07 Increase or Decrease in Global Conflict
6:30 Blowback If Trump Can't Deliver on Campaign Promises
12:06 Game Theory and Irrational Behavior
18:22 Advantages of Trump's Unpredictability
23:10 Republican Legislative Capacity
26:29 Five Eyes and Tulsi Gabbard
27:14 The TikTok Ban
27:43 American Expansionism Setting a Precedent
28:45 Trump and Testing Academic Theory
32:19 International Implications of U.S. Civil Conflict
34:33 Ally Help versus China
35:43 An Earthshattering Second Term?
37:27 Natural Disaster Policy
39:13 Department of Government Efficiency
More information came out this week on Russia's alleged bounty program, which paid out $30 million in exchange for 150 Western coalition losses. This video explores a problem with creating such contracts. The program certainly resulted in more casualties, but it was not as effective as it appears on the surface. Also: bounties with algebra to replace lines on maps.
0:00 The Bounty Program in Afghanistan
1:25 The Problem: Moral Hazard
4:08 The Mathematics of Moral Hazard
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):
By Kremlin.ru:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65973
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71528
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71891
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72034
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73083
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73255
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73732
0:00 Next Syria-Level World Event?
2:56 Will Turkey Intervene in Syria?
4:54 Will Russia Intervene in Belarus' Upcoming Election?
6:06 Will 2025 Be the End of the War in Ukraine?
8:31 Will Russia Have a Demographics Crisis in the Next Few Years?
11:17 Is Israel Taking Syrian Land to Swap for Recognition?
12:04 Odds of Nuclear War?
12:24 What Don't People Pay Enough Attention To?
13:14 What's the Strategic Value of U.S. Acquiring Greenland?
14:38 Would I Create Historical Lines-on-Maps Videos?
17:01 What Does Lines on Maps Research Look Like?
19:40 How Frustrating Is It to Be an Expert?
19:57 What Will Be the Biggest Geopolitical Surprise of 2025?
20:34 What Do I Sound Like in Real Life?
21:19 Where Do Babies Come From?
21:48 What Are My Hobbies?
21:59 Is Die Hard a Christmas Film?
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) by Kremlin.ru:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75909
Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
0:00 Will Assad Come Back to Power?
1:55 What Happens to Russian Military Bases in Syria?
4:44 Can Russia Make a Deal with Another Mediterranean Country?
7:06 Can Syria Force Russia Out?
9:05 How Does Assad's Fall Affect the Ukrainian Battlefield?
10:47 What Domino Effects Are Likely?
11:42 Is the Civil War Over?
12:29 How Involved Was Ukraine in Assad's Fall?
14:05 Can the EU Help Syria Form a Government?
15:57 Will Syrian Refugees Return?
16:59 What Is Israel Taking?
17:40 Will Kurds Declare an Independent Kurdistan?
18:31 How Does this Affect Russia's Interests in Africa?
20:47 Why Didn't Assad Build a Loyal Republican Guard?
22:27 Did Russia Offering Asylum Hasten the End of the War?
24:19 Why Can't a Human Do My Voiceovers?
24:37 When Will I Publish a Book about Syria?
25:22 Why a Second Channel?
26:50 Am I Actually a History Professor?
26:59 Are Squares Better than Lines?
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) by the Government of Russia:
http://archive.government.ru/eng/docs/12281
1:51 Will Russia's economy collapse?
3:36 How does the war affect other potential hot spots?
5:02 Should Belarussians start a revolution?
6:02 Why is Russian gas still flowing through Ukraine?
8:38 Where do lines on maps not apply?
10:11 Lines on marriages?
10:24 Academia versus YouTube
11:21 Has World War III started?
11:52 What else is hiding in my videos?
12:11 Will there be a post-peace buffer zone?
12:24 How long does it take to make a video?
12:42 Does teaching or making videos require more dumbing down?
13:14 What's my favorite color?
13:17 What would happen if Ukraine developed a nuclear weapon?
14:00 How to avoid media bias?
14:29 How did I transition from Game Theory 101 to Lines on Maps?
15:40 Do I teach game theory?
15:58 Has game theory helped me in real life?
16:32 What will I do when the war ends?
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en) from Kremlin.ru:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101


