Hoover InstitutionHistorians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music’s British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall’s book sales).
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
The Counterfactual Show: Reimagining History, with Stephen Kotkin | GoodFellowsHoover Institution2024-05-16 | Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music’s British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall’s book sales).
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
Dan Senor, host of the “Call Me Back” podcast, discusses the war in Gaza and where it might go from here.What are your thoughts on Cortés conquering #Mexico from the Aztecs? Comment below!Hoover Institution2024-05-22 | Classicist Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author of hundreds of articles, book reviews, and newspaper editorials on Greek, agrarian, and military history and essays on contemporary culture. He has written or edited twenty-four books, the latest of which is The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation. The book—and this conversation—charts how and why some societies choose to utterly destroy their foes and warns that similar wars of obliteration are possible in our time. Hanson provides a warning to current societies not to repeat the mistakes of the past. Learn more @HooverInstitutionWhatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic | Economics, AppliedHoover Institution2024-05-22 | Central banks responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with large-scale purchases of bonds, commercial paper, and other financial assets. In some cases, central banks announced “open-ended” programs, with no explicit limits on the scale or duration of asset purchases. Did these open-ended interventions have larger effects on interest rates? On exchange rates? Is this type of purposeful policy vagueness useful in the conduct of monetary policy? If so, why? And when? Join Steven Davis and guest Kathryn Dominguez as they discuss these issues and consider the wisdom of “open-endedness” in central bank policy pronouncements.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Kathryn Dominguez is a professor of public policy and economics at the Gerald. R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. She serves on the Panel of Economic Advisers at the Congressional Budget Office, the Advisory Panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Advisory Scientific Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Yale University, and taught at Harvard before joining the Michigan faculty in 1997.
Her research focuses on macroeconomics and global financial markets, with particular emphasis on the determinants of cross-border financial flows, macroeconomic forecasting, foreign exchange rate intervention policies, and the management of international reserves. Her recent work examines asks whether whatever-it-takes policymaking by central banks during the pandemic had larger effects than traditional expansionary policies with explicit limits on scale.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, advisor to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the US Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Previously, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
ABOUT THE SERIES:
Each episode of the video podcast series Economics, Applied features senior fellow Steven Davis in conversation with leaders and researchers about economic developments and their ramifications. The goal is to bring evidence and economic reasoning to the table, drawing lessons for individuals, organizations, and society. The podcast also aims to showcase the value of individual initiative, markets, the rule of law, and sound policy in fostering prosperity and security.
• Whatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic: nber.org/papers/w32115 • Kathryn Dominguez personal website: https://websites.umich.edu/~kathrynd/
The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
Alan Z. Rozenshtein is a University of Minnesota Law School professor who teaches Constitutional Law, AI and the Law, and Criminal Procedure, and also writes about Internet law; he is also a senior editor at Lawfare and a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Eugene Volokh is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. For thirty years, he had been a professor at the University of California – Los Angeles School of Law, where he has taught First Amendment law, copyright law, criminal law, tort law, and firearms regulation policy. Volokh is the author of the textbooks The First Amendment and Related Statutes (8th ed., 2023) and Academic Legal Writing (5th ed., 2016), as well as more than one hundred law review articles. He is the founder and coauthor of The Volokh Conspiracy, a leading legal blog. Before coming to UCLA, Volokh clerked for Justice Sandra Day O’Connor on the US Supreme Court.
Jane Bambauer is the Brechner Eminent Scholar at the University of Florida's Levin College of Law and the College of Journalism and Communications. She teaches Torts, First Amendment, Media Law, Criminal Procedure, and Privacy Law. Bambauer’s research assesses the social costs and benefits of Big Data, AI, and predictive algorithms. Her work analyzes how the regulation of these new information technologies will affect free speech, privacy, law enforcement, health and safety, competitive markets, and government accountability. Bambauer’s research has been featured in over 20 scholarly publications, including the Stanford Law Review, the Michigan Law Review, the California Law Review, and the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies.
ABOUT THE SERIES
Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Eugene Volokh is the co-founder of The Volokh Conspiracy and one of the country’s foremost experts on the 1st Amendment and the legal issues surrounding free speech. Jane Bambauer is a distinguished professor of law and journalism at the University of Florida. On Free Speech Unmuted, Volokh and Bambauer unpack and analyze the current issues and controversies concerning the First Amendment, censorship, the press, social media, and the proverbial town square. They explain in plain English the often confusing legalese around these issues and explain how the courts and government agencies interpret the Constitution and new laws being written, passed, and decided will affect Americans' everyday lives.
Matthew O. Jackson, William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute, discussed “Supply Chain Disruptions, the Structure of Production Networks, and the Impact of Globalization,” a paper with Matthew Elliott (University of Cambridge).
PARTICIPANTS
Matthew Jackson, John Taylor, Michael Boskin, Doug Branch, Pedro Carvalho, John Cochrane, Steven Davis, Randi Dewitty, Matthew Elliott, David Fedor, Andy Filardo, Jared Franz, Paul Gregory, Robert Hall, Robert Hodrick, Ken Judd, Robert King, Evan Koenig, Roman Kraussl, Robert Oster, Radek Paluszynski, Alvin Rabushka, Valerie Ramey, Isaac Sorkin, Richard Sousa, Tom Stephenson, Jack Tatom, Yevgeniy Teryoshin
ISSUES DISCUSSED
Matthew O. Jackson, William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute, discussed “Supply Chain Disruptions, the Structure of Production Networks, and the Impact of Globalization,” a paper with Matthew Elliott (University of Cambridge).
John Taylor, the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, was the moderator.
PAPER SUMMARY
We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study how a disruption in the production of intermediate goods propagates through to final goods, and how that impact depends on the goods’ positions in, and overall structure of, the production network. We show that the short-run disruption can be dramatically larger than the long-run disruption. The short-run disruption depends on the value of all of the final goods whose supply chains involve a disrupted good, while by contrast the long-run disruption depends only on the cost of the disrupted goods. We use the model to show how increased complexity of supply chains leads to increased fragility in terms of the probability and expected short-run size of a disruption. We also show how decreased transportation costs can lead to increased specialization in production, with lower chances for disruption but larger impacts conditional upon disruption.
The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power held Hong Kong After the National Security Law on Tuesday, May 14 from 4-5:30pm PT.
This event presented perspectives on the current political and civic climate in Hong Kong since the passage of the National Security Law on June 30, 2020 and the imposition of Article 23 on March 23, 2024. How have these developments fit into the broader history of the struggle for democracy in Hong Kong? What has changed in Hong Kong’s once vibrant civil society? What is the latest on the trials of pro-democracy activists? How have diasporic advocates constructed a Hong Kong political identity in exile?
Four panelists—Ambassador James Cunningham, the Chairman of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong and former Consul General of the United States to Hong Kong and Macau (2005-2008); Sebastien Lai, a democracy advocate and son of jailed Hong Kong businessman and publisher Jimmy Lai; Sophie Richardson, the former China Director at Human Rights Watch; and Cherie Wong, the former leader of Alliance Canada Hong Kong (ACHK)—will discuss these issues and more in a conversation moderated by Hoover William L. Clayton Senior Fellow Larry Diamond.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Ambassador James B. Cunningham retired from government service at the end of 2014. He is currently a consultant, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, an adjunct faculty member at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, and Board Chair of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation. He served as Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ambassador to Israel, Consul General in Hong Kong, and Ambassador and Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Ambassador Cunningham was born in Allentown, Pennsylvania and graduated magna cum laude from Syracuse University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Asia Society, the National Committee on US-China Relations, and the American Academy of Diplomacy.
Sebastien Lai leads the international campaign to free his father Jimmy Lai, the pro democracy activist and publisher currently jailed by the Hong Kong government. Having had international calls for his release from multiple states including the US and the UK, Jimmy Lai’s ongoing persecution mirrors the rapid decline of human rights, press freedom and rule of law in the Chinese territory.
Sophie Richardson is a longtime activist and scholar of Chinese politics, human rights, and foreign policy. From 2006 to 2023, she served as the China Director at Human Rights Watch, where she oversaw the organization’s research and advocacy. She has published extensively on human rights, and testified to the Canadian Parliament, European Parliament, and the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Dr. Richardson is the author of China, Cambodia, and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Columbia University Press, Dec. 2009), an in-depth examination of China's foreign policy since 1954's Geneva Conference, including rare interviews with Chinese policy makers. She speaks Mandarin, and received her doctorate from the University of Virginia and her BA from Oberlin College. Her current research focuses on the global implications of democracies’ weak responses to increasingly repressive Chinese governments, and she is advising several China-focused human rights organizations.
Cherie Wong (she/her) is a non-partisan policy analyst and advocate. Her influential leadership at Alliance Canada Hong Kong (ACHK), a grassroots community organization, had garnered international attention for its comprehensive research publications and unwavering advocacy in Canada-China relations. ACHK disbanded in November 2023. Recognized for her nuanced and progressive approach, Cherie is a sought-after authority among decision-makers, academics, journalists, researchers, and policymakers. Cherie frequently appeared in parliamentary committees and Canadian media as an expert commentator, speaking on diverse public policy issues such as international human rights, foreign interference, and transnational repression.
Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor, by courtesy, of political science and sociology at Stanford. He co-chairs the Hoover Institution’s programs on China’s Global Sharp Power and on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region.Taiwan Roundtable Discussion On Cold War/Martial Law Formations of Taiwanese AmericaHoover Institution2024-05-16 | Monday, May 13, 2024 Hoover Institution | Stanford University
On behalf of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and its National Security Task Force the Hoover Institution held a Taiwan Roundtable Discussion On Cold War / Martial Law Formations of Taiwanese America on Monday, May 13, 2024 from 2-3:30 p.m. PT in Stauffer Auditorium.
From the 1960s to 1980s, more than a hundred thousand Taiwanese students migrated to the US for graduate study in science, technology, engineering, and medicine fields as part of the special Cold War relationship between the US and the authoritarian Kuomintang (KMT) government in Taiwan. This same time period overlapped with a 38-year period of martial law in Taiwan, during which the KMT surveilled and terrorized Taiwanese nationals not only in Taiwan but also in the U.S., Japan, and other locations around the world. In the U.S., this occurred with the full knowledge and tacit permission of the US state.
With information drawn from extensive interviews and archival research, we'll discuss how Taiwanese students were politicized and organized themselves on U.S. university campuses under these dual conditions of selective Cold War migration and martial law, and how their politics were more heterogeneous and far-reaching than how they are typically remembered today.
FEATURING
Wendy Cheng Professor Chair, Intercollegiate American Studies Program Core Faculty, Intercollegiate Department of Asian American Studies Scripps College
Wendy Cheng is Professor of American Studies and core faculty in the Intercollegiate Department of Asian American Studies at Scripps College. She is the author of Island X: Taiwanese Student Migrants, Campus Spies, and Cold War Activism (University of Washington Press, 2023) and The Changs Next Door to the Díazes: Remapping Race in Suburban California (University of Minnesota Press, 2013), and coauthor of A People’s Guide to Los Angeles (University of California Press, 2012).
MODERATOR
Kharis Templeman Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
Kharis Templeman is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and part of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific. Templeman is a political scientist (Ph.D. 2012, Michigan) with research interests in Taiwan politics, democratization, elections and election management, party system development, and politics and security issues in Pacific Asia.When #september11 happened, #mongolia fought for peace with #America. Watch #battlegrounds nowHoover Institution2024-05-15 | In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Elbegdorj Tsakhia discuss Mongolian security concerns, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continued threat of warfare in the Pacific. Former president of Mongolia, key leader of the Mongolian Democratic Revolution, and Mongolian prime minister in 1998 and between 2004 to 2006, Elbegdorj Tsakhia joins Hoover senior fellow H.R. McMaster to share his thoughts on current Mongolian security concerns, his assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the continued threat of warfare in the Pacific. A pivotal figure in peace and democracy movements across Asia, Elbegdorj discusses Mongolia’s shift from an authoritarian, communist government to a democracy and free-market economy, the motivations driving the Chinese Communist Party, and the dangers that the Iranian-Russian-Chinese relationship poses to the world. Learn more @HooverInstitutionIdeology vs. Identity: What Drives Political Preferences? | HISPBC Ch.1Hoover Institution2024-05-15 | Hoover Fellow, Elizabeth Elder, challenges the notion that voters engage with politics based on consistent policy preferences and, instead, shows that people make sense of politics through the lens of social group identities. Group factors such as race and gender provide citizens with emotional stakes and informational cues that guide their political decision-making, often leading to polarization. Elder explores how race strongly predicts public opinion and voting behavior, while gender, though not as strongly associated with political views, significantly impacts patterns of political engagement and representation.
Classicist Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author of hundreds of articles, book reviews, and newspaper editorials on Greek, agrarian, and military history and essays on contemporary culture. He has written or edited twenty-four books, the latest of which is The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation. The book—and this conversation—charts how and why some societies choose to utterly destroy their foes and warns that similar wars of obliteration are possible in our time. Hanson provides a warning to current societies not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power, Stanford’s Center for East Asian Studies, and Stanford's Department of History held What China Remembers About the Cultural Revolution, and What it Wants to Forget on Friday, May 10, 2024 from 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm PT in the George P. Shultz Building, Shultz Auditorium.
The devastating movement unleashed by Mao in 1966, which claimed around two million lives and saw tens of millions hounded, shapes China to this day. Yet in a country where leaders have long seen history as a political tool, the Cultural Revolution is a particularly sensitive subject. How does the Chinese Communist Party control discussion of the topic? And how has an era which turned the nation upside down been used to maintain the political status quo?
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Tania Branigan writes foreign policy editorials for the Guardian and spent seven years as its China correspondent. Her book Red Memory: The Afterlives of China’s Cultural Revolution won the Cundill History Prize 2023 and was shortlisted for the Kirkus non-fiction prize, the Baillie Gifford prize and the British Academy Book Prize for Global Cultural Understanding. It was named as one of the Wall Street Journal’s ten best books of 2023 and TIME’s 100 must-read books of 2023.
Glenn Tiffert is a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China. He co-chairs Hoover’s project on China’s Global Sharp Power and directs its research portfolio. He also works closely with government and civil society partners around the world to document and build resilience against authoritarian interference with democratic institutions. Most recently, he co-authored Eyes Wide Open: Ethical Risks in Research Collaboration with China (2021).Welcome! Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track | John Taylor | Hoover InstitutionHoover Institution2024-05-15 | Thursday, May 2, 2024 Hoover Institution | Stanford University
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Senior Hoover Fellow John B. Taylor spoke about why he thinks global monetary policy “got behind the curve” when it came to responding to rising rates of inflation. He also applied the monetary rule he created in the 1990s to the current central bank response to curb inflation.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Emilio Ocampo detailed the structural and political problems in Argentina that perpetually leads to poor fiscal and monetary policy.
Juan Pablo Nicolini gave a snapshot of Latin American inflation history broadly. Many countries moved from habitual inflation to much better control in recent decades.
Zhiguo He gave an overview of monetary policy in China. The central bank is not independent and is also charged with broader support of economic policy.
Ross Levine gave an overview of inflation and central bank actions in emerging markets. He then questioned some of the premises for independent central banks. The link from tools (interest rates) to inflation is vague. Most of all, it is not at all clear that financial regulation should be part of an independent institution unlike all other regulatory agencies.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Klaus Masuch and Luis Garicano spoke of the fiscal foundations of the euro, structures put in place to avoid the temptation to print money to finance government debts, how those structures weakened through the series of crises, and how to reform the euro to reinstitute an insulation of monetary from fiscal policy.
Markus Brunnermeier discussed issues surrounding the introduction of digital central bank currencies, in particular the euro. Among other issues, he highlighted the tension between private systems, which like to print money but care less about resilience, and public systems that may be less efficient and more political .
Yuriy Gorodnichenko noted how inflation is declining in Europe, with no rise in unemployment. Looking forward, however he pointed to strained public finances, commodity shocks, war, and international decoupling that could hurt economic performance and bring inflation back.
Luigi Bocola also considered the fiscal limits on monetary policy in the euro. On how did inflation emerge, he showed asset market estimates that the Fed and ECB became much more dovish in 2020. Both central banks may be afraid to raise rates that would hurt banks and government finances.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Darrell Duffie gave an overview of how treasury markets suffered turmoil, and some of the structural and regulatory causes of that turmoil, along with recommendations to fix that market.
Christina Parajon Skinner focused on the foundations of bank regulation by an independent Fed without the accountability of most regulatory agencies. She noted that Financial Stability” and “Safety and Soundness” are undefined, and thus open to expansive interpretation; policy is closely aligned with global policy set at Basel, which has no democratic input from Congress. She also noted the great power vested in the Vice Chair.
Carolyn Wilkins covered the Bank of England’s actions when over-leveraged pension funds melted down as interest rates rose, and how the bank could sell securities for monetary policy actions while buying them to prop up the funds’ asset values and stem the crisis.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Securities and Exchange Commissioner Hester Peirce gave a rousing talk on SEC regulatory expansion, listing many examples from the humorous – the SEC’s move to make Stoner Cats a security – to the serious, such as new rules to regulate fund advisers. She stressed how the SEC is moving from rules of the game to “prudential” or supervisory regulation, directly controlling how people invest.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Steven J. Davis covered the work from home trend, showing how it is increasing employee satisfaction, but also allowing somewhat lower wages.
Marianna Kudlyiak presented her research arguing that the slow decline in unemployment characteristic of most recoveries does not represent “lack of demand” remediable by more stimulus, but the slow search and matching process of normal labor markets.
Emi Nakamura presented research on the Phillips curve, the relation between inflation and unemployment. It moves around a lot, and forecasts are systematically wrong.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Athanasios Orphanides described how interest rates deviated from most rules, and advocated improvements in how policy rules could be better integrated into the policy process to avoid a repetition of the original mistake.
Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser also reviewed how the current strategy went wrong in the post pandemic inflation. They argue for greater commitment to the 2% target, rules as guidelines, abandoning forward guidance as a separate tool, benchmark more closely to rules, and improve the economic projections.
Jón Steinsson emphasized supply, fiscal, and relative demand shocks of the pandemic, and how a strategy focused on the worry that inflation was 1.7 percent rather than 2 percent at the zero-bound led to too loose policy. He emphasized the importance of anchoring expectations, and that adherence to rules is only one way to achieve credibility.
Larry Summers offered a clear but dissenting view, arguing against formal targets or rules at all, that projections and forward guidance are unhelpful.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Amir Yaron, Governor of the Central Bank of Israel, explained how the central bank of Israel handled the huge financial shocks of the October 7 attack and subsequent war. He went on to discuss how small open economies must think about exchange rates in their policy strategies.
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, discussed how to improve the statement of economic projections, in particular by linking FOMC members’ inflation, employment, and interest rate projections together so people could understand the economic reasoning behind them.
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, gave an overview of how central banks have evolved, focusing on rules, transparency, attention to expectations and thus the central bank’s commitment to eventually reach its inflation target, even if there are bumps along the way.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
The Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group hosts “Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track," its annual monetary policy conference on Thursday, May 2, 2024 at Stanford University.
Based on his book, Ed Nelson gave a history of how Milton Friedman and other commentators approached the inflation of the late 1970s, a period in some ways eerily similar to the current moment. Friedman saw the inflation coming, which many others did not, and of course argued for better monetary policy to contain it.
“Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" was the theme this year following up on last year’s theme “How to Get Back on Track," and the previous year’s theme “How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve.” A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back and stay on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth. This year the key policy issues are largely international, with special discussions of Europe and Asia. This is a policy-oriented conference consisting of formal presentations, policy panels, and in-depth discussions.
For more information, visit hoover.org/events/getting-global-monetary-policy-track.Was this a good #jamesbond impression from #goodfellows member Niall Ferguson? Let us knowHoover Institution2024-05-14 | Did Israel’s failure to anticipate Hamas’s surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution’s Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel’s intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it’s portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public’s view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don’t like their chances). Learn more @HooverInstitutionBerkeley Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky explains why he is in favor of an ideologically diverse faculty.Hoover Institution2024-05-13 | Can you give your input on why you believe this is important? Make sure to watch the full episode here: youtu.be/xgRb57r_azg. More on the episode: Berkeley Dean Erwin Chemerinsky joins Jane Bambauer and Eugene Volokh to discuss students’ and professors’ free speech and academic freedom rights. Erwin Chemerinsky – a noted scholar, author on academic freedom, and law school dean – comes on the podcast to discuss campus free speech and academic freedom. We begin with student speech controversies (including the one that was literally in Erwin’s back yard), and then we move on to faculty academic freedom, in scholarship, public commentary, and teaching.#Mongolia is sandwiched between #Russia & #China. What will that mean for them? #BattlegroundsHoover Institution2024-05-12 | In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Elbegdorj Tsakhia discuss Mongolian security concerns, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continued threat of warfare in the Pacific. Former president of Mongolia, key leader of the Mongolian Democratic Revolution, and Mongolian prime minister in 1998 and between 2004 to 2006, Elbegdorj Tsakhia joins Hoover senior fellow H.R. McMaster to share his thoughts on current Mongolian security concerns, his assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the continued threat of warfare in the Pacific. A pivotal figure in peace and democracy movements across Asia, Elbegdorj discusses Mongolia’s shift from an authoritarian, communist government to a democracy and free-market economy, the motivations driving the Chinese Communist Party, and the dangers that the Iranian-Russian-Chinese relationship poses to the world. Learn more @HooverInstitutionIs #China theDiet Coke of #Communism? Let us know what you think & make sure to watch #goodfellowsHoover Institution2024-05-11 | Did Israel’s failure to anticipate Hamas’s surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution’s Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel’s intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it’s portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public’s view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don’t like their chances). Learn more @HooverInstitutionStrengthening Trust With India: Implications Of The 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear AgreementHoover Institution2024-05-11 | Monday, May 6, 2024 Hoover Institution | Stanford University
The Hoover Institution held Strengthening Trust With India: Implications of the 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement on May 6, 2024 from 6:30 pm - 8:00 pm in Hauck Auditorium, David & Joan Traitel Building.
The conversation was between key figures who shaped modern US-India relations through the 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, an emblem of strategic US-India partnership and a major innovation in sustainable energy to power India’s future. The engaging dialogue celebrates this important achievement and explores the future of US-India cooperation.
FEATURING
Condoleezza Rice – Tad and Dianne Taube Director and Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Senior Fellow on Public Policy and 66th US Secretary of State (2005-2009)
M.K. Narayanan – National Security Advisor of India (2005-2010)
Shivshankar Menon – Visiting Professor Ashoka University
David C. Mulford – Distinguished Visiting Fellow and US Ambassador to India (2004-2009)
Nick Burns – US Ambassador to China and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (2005-2009)
Eric Garcetti – US Ambassador to India
MODERATOR
Anja Manuel – Executive Director, Aspen Strategy Group Special Assistant to the Undersecretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns (2005-2007)
The Mission Of Tzipi Hotovely | Andrew Roberts | Hoover InstitutionHoover Institution2024-05-10 | Recorded on May 2, 2024 The Israeli Ambassador to London speaks up eloquently and frankly for her embattled country.Paul was in the #pentagon on #september11. What were your feelings about the incident at the time?Hoover Institution2024-05-10 | Currently a fellow at the Hoover Institution, Paul Wolfowitz previously served as director of policy planning at the State Department, as US ambassador to Indonesia, as under secretary of defense for policy, as dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, as deputy secretary of defense, and as president of the World Bank. He is perhaps best known as a policymaker during the war in Afghanistan and the first and second wars in Iraq, and that is what we delve into in great detail in this episode. Wolfowitz gives his views on what the United States got right and got wrong in both Iraq and Afghanistan, recounting the data available to decision makers at the time and the decision-making processes. He also gives new details on why the Bush administration believed Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and determined an invasion of Afghanistan was necessary after 9/11, and how the idea for the surge in Iraq was conceived and executed. Learn more @HooverInstitutionDid we deserve 9/11? #september11 Paul Wolfowitz explains more on #UncommonKnowledgeHoover Institution2024-05-09 | Currently a fellow at the Hoover Institution, Paul Wolfowitz previously served as director of policy planning at the State Department, as #US ambassador to Indonesia, as under secretary of defense for policy, as dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, as deputy secretary of defense, and as president of the World Bank. He is perhaps best known as a policymaker during the war in Afghanistan and the first and second wars in Iraq, and that is what we delve into in great detail in this episode. Wolfowitz gives his views on what the United States got right and got wrong in both Iraq and Afghanistan, recounting the data available to decision-makers at the time and the decision-making processes. He also gives new details on why the #Bush administration believed Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and determined an invasion of #afghanistan was necessary after 9/11, and how the idea for the surge in #iraq was conceived and executed.Does #firstamendment protection apply to this situation? Let us know what you think.Hoover Institution2024-05-09 | Berkeley Dean Erwin Chemerinsky joins Jane Bambauer and Eugene Volokh to discuss students’ and professors’ free speech and academic freedom rights. Erwin Chemerinsky – a noted scholar, author on academic freedom, and law school dean – comes on the podcast to discuss campus free speech and academic freedom. We begin with student speech controversies (including the one that was literally in Erwin’s back yard), and then we move on to faculty academic freedom, in scholarship, public commentary, and teaching. Learn more @HooverInstitutionThe 1st Amendment on Campus with Berkeley Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky | Free Speech UnmutedHoover Institution2024-05-09 | THIS IS AN UPDATED NEW VERSION WITH SOUND ISSUES FIXED
Berkeley Dean Erwin Chemerinsky joins Jane Bambauer and Eugene Volokh to discuss students’ and professors’ free speech and academic freedom rights. Erwin Chemerinsky – a noted scholar, author on academic freedom, and law school dean – comes on the podcast to discuss campus free speech and academic freedom. We begin with student speech controversies (including the one that was literally in Erwin’s back yard), and then we move on to faculty academic freedom, in scholarship, public commentary, and teaching.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Erwin Chemerinsky is the dean of the UC Berkeley School of Law; before that, he was the founding Dean of UC Irvine School of Law, and a professor at Duke, USC, and DePaul; he has been in law teaching for 44 years. He is the author of nineteen books, including leading casebooks and treatises about constitutional law, criminal procedure, and federal jurisdiction. His most recent major books are Worse than Nothing: The Dangerous Fallacy of Originalism (2022) and Presumed Guilty: How the Supreme Court Empowered the Police and Subverted Civil Rights (2021). He is the author of more than 200 law review articles. He is also a frequent newspaper columnist and appellate advocate. In 2024, National Jurist magazine again named him as the most influential person in legal education in the United States; in 2022, he was the president of the Association of American Law Schools.
Eugene Volokh is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. For thirty years, he had been a professor at the University of California – Los Angeles School of Law, where he has taught First Amendment law, copyright law, criminal law, tort law, and firearms regulation policy. Volokh is the author of the textbooks The First Amendment and Related Statutes (8th ed., 2023) and Academic Legal Writing (5th ed., 2016), as well as more than one hundred law review articles. He is the founder and coauthor of The Volokh Conspiracy, a leading legal blog. Before coming to UCLA, Volokh clerked for Justice Sandra Day O’Connor on the US Supreme Court.
Jane Bambauer is the Brechner Eminent Scholar at the University of Florida's Levin College of Law and the College of Journalism and Communications. She teaches Torts, First Amendment, Media Law, Criminal Procedure, and Privacy Law. Bambauer’s research assesses the social costs and benefits of Big Data, AI, and predictive algorithms. Her work analyzes how the regulation of these new information technologies will affect free speech, privacy, law enforcement, health and safety, competitive markets, and government accountability. Bambauer’s research has been featured in over 20 scholarly publications, including the Stanford Law Review, the Michigan Law Review, the California Law Review, and the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies.
ABOUT THE SERIES
Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Eugene Volokh is the co-founder of The Volokh Conspiracy and one of the country’s foremost experts on the 1st Amendment and the legal issues surrounding free speech. Jane Bambauer is a distinguished professor of law and journalism at the University of Florida. On Free Speech Unmuted, Volokh and Bambauer unpack and analyze the current issues and controversies concerning the First Amendment, censorship, the press, social media, and the proverbial town square. They explain in plain English the often confusing legalese around these issues and explain how the courts and government agencies interpret the Constitution and new laws being written, passed, and decided will affect Americans' everyday lives.
Melissa Kearney is a chaired professor of economics at the University of Maryland, research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, non-resident Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution, and a highly accomplished researcher. She holds a BA in Economics from Princeton University and a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Among many other roles, she serves on the editorial boards of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy and the Journal of Economic Literature. She is also on the board of the Notre Dame Wilson-Sheehan Lab for Economic Opportunities and a scholar affiliate with the MIT Abdul Jameel Poverty Action Lab.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, advisor to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the US Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Previously, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
ABOUT THE SERIES:
Each episode of the video podcast series Economics, Applied features senior fellow Steven Davis in conversation with leaders and researchers about economic developments and their ramifications. The goal is to bring evidence and economic reasoning to the table, drawing lessons for individuals, organizations, and society. The podcast also aims to showcase the value of individual initiative, markets, the rule of law, and sound policy in fostering prosperity and security.
• The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind: amazon.com/Two-Parent-Privilege-Americans-Stopped-Getting/dp/0226817784 • Social Poverty: Low-Income Parents and the Struggle for Family and Community Ties: nyupress.org/9781479891214/social-poverty • The Trouble with Boys: Social Influences and the Gender Gap in Disruptive Behavior: aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.5.1.32 • Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Non-Marital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom: https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/100/4/678/58504/Male-Earnings-Marriageable-Men-and-Nonmarital?redirectedFrom=fulltext • Collateralized Marriage: aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20210614 • Melissa Kearny Personal website: https://econweb.umd.edu/~kearney/melissa_website
The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
Elbegdorj Tsakhia served as president of Mongolia from 2009 to 2017. Prior to taking this role, he was a key leader of the Mongolian Democratic Revolution and served as Mongolia’s prime minister in 1998 and again from 2004 to 2006. Elbegdorj holds a master of public administration from Harvard University and a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Land Forces Military Academy of Lviv, Ukraine. He is a pivotal figure in peace and democracy movements across Asia. Elbegdorj spearheaded the establishment of the Asian Partnership for Democracy initiative and serves as commissioner of the International Commission against the Death Penalty, patron of the World Sustainable Development Forum, member of the World Leadership Alliance–Club de Madrid, and member of the Elders.
H.R. McMaster is the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is also the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and lecturer at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. He was the 25th assistant to the president for National Security Affairs. Upon graduation from the United States Military Academy in 1984, McMaster served as a commissioned officer in the United States Army for thirty-four years before retiring as a Lieutenant General in June 2018.
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
Our 25th workshop features a conversation with Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner, and Nicholas Bloom on "The Diffusion of New Technologies" on April 29, 2024, from 9:00AM – 10:30AM PT.
The Hoover Institution Workshop on Using Text as Data in Policy Analysis showcases applications of natural language processing, structured human readings, and machine learning methods to analyze text as data for examining policy issues in economics, history, national security, political science, and other fields. Steven J. Davis and Justin Grimmer organize the workshop. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Tarek Hassan is a Professor of Economics at Boston University. His research focuses on international finance, macro-finance, and social factors in economic growth. Some of his recent papers study the effects of uncertainty on firm behavior and on the allocation of capital across countries. Another set of papers studies the effect of social structure on economic growth and the effect of historical migration and ethnic diversity on foreign direct investment. Hassan’s work has appeared in the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economic Studies, and the Journal of Finance. He is a research fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic Policy Research.
Josh Lerner is the Jacob H. Schiff Professor at Harvard Business School and Co-Director of the HBS Private Capital Project. Much of his research focuses on venture capital and private equity organizations. He also has extensively examined innovation policy.
He co-directs the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program and serves as co-editor of their publication, Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy. He founded and runs the Private Capital Research Institute, a nonprofit devoted to encouraging access to data and research, and has been a frequent leader of and participant in the World Economic Forum projects and events.
In the 1993-1994 academic year, Josh introduced "Venture Capital and Private Equity” as an elective class to second-year MBAs, this class has consistently been one of the largest elective courses at Harvard Business School. He also established and teaches undergraduate and doctoral courses on entrepreneurship and teaches in a wide variety of executive courses relating to venture capital, private equity, and entrepreneurship.
Josh graduated from Yale College with a special divisional major. He worked for several years on issues concerning technological innovation and public policy at the Brookings Institution, for a public-private task force in Chicago, and on Capitol Hill. He then earned a Ph.D. from Harvard's Economics Department. He was recently recognized as the 37 the most influential economist worldwide by research.com.
Nicholas Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University. His research focuses on working from home, management practices and uncertainty. He previously worked at the UK Treasury and McKinsey & Company and the IFS. He has a BA from Cambridge, an MPhil from Oxford, and a PhD from University College London.
He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the recipient of the Guggenheim and Sloan Fellowships, the Frisch Medal and a National Science Foundation Career Award. He was elected to Bloomberg50 for his advice on working from home.
On the personal side he is English, living with his Scottish wife and American kids on Stanford campus, in a multi-accented English household.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He studies business dynamics, labor markets, and public policy. He advises the U.S. Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum and is co-creator of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. Davis hosts “Economics, Applied,” a podcast series sponsored by the Hoover Institution.
Justin Grimmer is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor in the Department of Political Science at Stanford University. His current research focuses on American political institutions, elections, and developing new machine-learning methods for the study of politics.Should #students be disciplined for the content of their #speech? Should #freespeech be limited?Hoover Institution2024-05-01 | When can colleges and universities discipline students based on the content of their speech? When can they impose content-neutral restrictions on the time, place, and manner of demonstrations? Given that the First Amendment applies only to government operations, what rules apply to private institutions? @HooverInstitutionPaul Wolfowitz on the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars and a Life in Foreign Policy | Uncommon KnowledgeHoover Institution2024-05-01 | Recorded on April 4, 2024.
Currently a fellow at the Hoover Institution, Paul Wolfowitz previously served as director of policy planning at the State Department, as US ambassador to Indonesia, as under secretary of defense for policy, as dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, as deputy secretary of defense, and as president of the World Bank. He is perhaps best known as a policymaker during the war in Afghanistan and the first and second wars in Iraq, and that is what we delve into in great detail in this episode. Wolfowitz gives his views on what the United States got right and got wrong in both Iraq and Afghanistan, recounting the data available to decision makers at the time and the decision-making processes. He also gives new details on why the Bush administration believed Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction and determined an invasion of Afghanistan was necessary after 9/11, and how the idea for the surge in Iraq was conceived and executed.