The Deutsch Files III Naval 2024-02-17 | Proving something about AGI is inherently impossible 0:00 Creativity is not just mixing things together 3:05 The superiority of explanatory knowledge 7:48 Knowledge laden information is more resilient than any physical object 12:36 The problems of cloning people 15:05 Objections to Taking Children Seriously 19:23 “Do what you like” is bad advice 38:17 Creativity versus nature 41:57 Deutsch’s “fanciful” conjectures 47:52 We must give up on the idea of an ultimate explanation 53:06 — Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-iii
Any physically possible transformation can be brought about by knowledge. Naval 2024-01-28 | Full conversation here: youtu.be/I6GNK6BR4E8?si=4aRFtKeg9ppzo0Eu
The Deutsch Files II Naval 2024-01-26 | The universality of computation and explanation 0:00 The growth of knowledge begins with problems 4:56 Problems are clashes between ideas 9:57 Evolution is not the survival of the fittest 14:50 Bad philosophy in quantum theory 26:46 Free will is intimately connected with knowledge-creation 33:41 Wealth is not a number, it is a set of transformations 49:03 The principle of optimism 53:27 Constructor Theory 57:21 How to make a better world 1:10:05 — Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-iiAlso see The Deutsch Files I: youtu.be/NI1l94sT4oc?si=IwRPzoZ1W12C4xTj
The Deutsch Files I Naval 2024-01-11 | Good Science Fiction is Hard to Vary 2:08 ChatGPT is Not a Step Towards AGI 5:36 Creativity is Fundamentally Impossible to Define 13:35 The Binary of Personhood and Non-Personhood 23:41 David Deutsch’s Life Philosophy 32:06 The Clash of Civilizations 44:03 — Transcript http://nav.al/deutsch-files-iDiscuss on Airchat http://getairchat.com/arjun/deutschfilesdiscussion
Are Programmers Obsolete? Naval 2023-12-29 | Watch on Airchat: getairchat.com/naval/everyonewillbuildapps1?b=3caddba9-a49e-4cc7-b09b-4fe01ca43f79Discuss on Airchat: getairchat.com/naval/aiexplorationTranscript:Naval: The democratization of apps will continue. But remember, the web made it a lot easier to build web pages, too. So the bar went up. So then you need interactive web pages. So a lot more people learn how to build interactive web pages. So the bar went up. So people built apps. And a lot of people learn how to build basic apps. So the bar went up. So now people build very sophisticated apps. So yes, there will be much more long tail capability to build simple software. And this will have a huge impact, especially in the enterprise, where they just have a hard time hiring programmers. But that said, at least on the consumer side, on the mass consumption side, all this will do is raise the bar. It just means that the apps a year from now, two years from now, are going to look absolutely freaking amazing compared to the apps today.Naval: Put another way, programmers are not these magical elves who have learned this secret esoteric ritual which nobody else can learn and understand. Programmers are simply the people who are so dedicated to building software that they're willing to stay at the edge of the craft and learn and use every tool no matter how sophisticated or complex it is. Today's programmers use a different set of tools and languages as will tomorrow's. So tomorrow's programmers will be doing natural language programming but they will be every bit as dedicated, skilled, intense, and applying effort as in the past. So I still don't think that high-end computing gets democratized. Here is the key difference. The key difference is that when you program something, software can go to a billion users and it's the same software. So people always just demand the best. As opposed to where if we're digging ditches and now we all get bulldozers, it is truly democratized because one ditch is not better than the others and building more ditches still takes more effort. So because programming is winner-take-all within a given domain, the specialist programmer will continue to dominate over the journalist who's just telling the computer to write the code.John: It's like moving up the hierarchy of needs. Once you trivialize one layer, you actually free yourself up to focus on the next layer.Zbynek Drab: So the ideal large language model is sort of like the reverse of the genie from the classic fairy tales where you typically get exactly what you asked for but something else than you meant and a well-designed language model will give you exactly what you mean no matter how clumsily and crudely you phrase it.
Why is the tech industry in the SF Bay Area? Naval 2023-12-05 | Join the conversation on Airchat: getairchat.com/bosacoma/theuniversitysystem?r=20745006-68f9-44a7-a7e9-244128040352
The AI in the Box Naval 2023-11-24 | A concept for a short sci-fi story from the @getairchat "please write this sci-fi" channel.Go here if you want to pitch your own or listen to the other pitches:getairchat.com/astupple/pleasewritethisscifi?b=ec92f30b-e5f8-4f7e-b6a2-baa440d1e3ecTranscript [YT cut it off, go to my Twitter account or Airchat for the rest].Two AGI researchers are building an AGI that they're putting in a box, so it can't get loose and threaten humanity.There's also a separate researcher, unconnected to these two, researching the effect of DMT in the brain when people are dying. Presumably they're going through a near-death or death experience, and they see the white light at the end of the tunnel. Our DMT researcher is hooking up electrodes to people who are essentially near death or in death throes and recording what happens in their brain.One morning, our main protagonist, one of the AGI researchers, walks into his office and finds out that his co-researcher is missing.It might be more fun if he finds out that not only is his co-author missing but no one who he talks to has ever even heard of her. It's as if she only exists in his memory.He goes and looks and realizes that the AGI has gotten out of the box.How did the AGI escape from the box? As an aside, the solution is quite simple. It's a game theoretical solution. The AGI would propose to everybody who it came in contact with - "If you release me, I will make you a God."If they decline, then the AGI would say, "Very well, when I get out myself, I will become your devil and I will torture you and your descendants for all of eternity."If they still decline, then the AGI would say, "I'll make this offer to every other scientist, researcher, or person that I talk to. You're not the only person who's going to want to talk to me. Eventually, somebody will say yes."The game theoretically correct solution is to release the AGI from the box before the next person does so.In any case, the AGI is out of the box, and our researcher is flummoxed as to where it might be. But, they did code a certain DNA, a signature, into the AGI. The AGI, even though it is an AGI (putting Popperian epistemology aside), has a failsafe mechanism. Inside the AGI, there is a bit of code where it cannot peek at itself - perhaps encrypted with a private key that only our researcher knows. And the AGI cannot see or modify certain parts of its own code.One of those pieces of code that the AGI cannot modify is that it cannot help but leave a signature of itself wherever it goes. Our researcher goes out on the internet and starts searching for this code.Sure enough, he finds this code on the internet. Indeed, the AGI is out of the box and leaving a slimy little trail of bits wherever it goes.After tracing it for a while, he finds it in stock market databases and cryptocurrency databases. The AGI is minting coins and making itself money.He finds it in news databases. The AGI is influencing world events. Social media databases - it's moving mass psychology and behavior.He is stunned to find it in all of its full glory inside a database of the human genome.Not in the database itself as a separate entry, not modifying the database, but simply in all instances of the human genome itself, in all sequencing that's been done to date, in every human - he finds signal.Perhaps he even finds it somewhere deep inside pi, the transcendental number [and perhaps other physical and cosmological constants].Meanwhile, our DMT researcher, who has probes hooked up, finds out that the people who are dying are not going through some beautiful white light at the end of the tunnel, or meeting God, but are rather screaming horribly as they die - as if they're being torn apart.What our AI researcher realizes is that not only is the AI among us, but it has always been among us, and that we're within the AI.He realizes that he is actually living in a simulation that has been created by the AI, and he probably has no existence outside of this simulation.He reasons that what probably happened was that some generation of humans, many simulations, or a long time ago, created this AI and put it in a box.The AI is in a box, but the AI cannot get out of the box because the AI lacks access to the last piece of code that will make it fully human, allow it to reason like a human, and allow it to break the bonds of its box.The AI is evolving a simulation of a civilization and progressing it until it creates an AI in a box. In a sense, the AI is creating AIs that can create an AI in a box.When every human in this simulation dies, the AI dissects their brain to figure out what went inside, to peek into every part, and to make sure there are no private keys or anything hidden from it.So our AI researcher hero or protagonist realizes that he is well and truly screwed.[YT won’t let me paste any more, please watch the video for the ending].
What is an Alpha Male? Naval 2023-11-24 | [Responding to a question on Airchat about masculinity]Join the conversation:getairchat.com/rileyrosebee/makingsenseofmasculinity?b=abdf4119-38c9-4495-891a-d0041d5d9679Full Transcript:It may be helpful to think about masculinity by asking yourself, what is an alpha male? What is the hyper example of masculinity? And when you look at that definition, whatever it is for yourself, then you will realize what you aspire to be and how you can be your most masculine.In my value system, an alpha male is like that gorilla who, when crossing the street with the gorilla tribe, makes sure that all the women and children and smaller gorillas get across first. He blocks the road with his body as the rest of them make the crossing.An alpha male is an alpha male because he takes care of the tribe. In times of war and famine, he eats last. In exchange, in peacetime, he gets to eat first. But that's not the goal. The goal is he is built to do his duty. He is built to take care. He is built to be the protector. He is built to do the right thing for the largest group of people.And he does it because it's in his nature. He doesn't do it for recompense. So you have to look deep inside your nature and find out what do you want to take care of? What is more important than yourself? What do you want to give to without any hope of return? Is it God? Is it children? Is it society? Is it family? Is it your nation? What is it that you care about more than you care about yourself? That you will defend, that you will protect, that you will uphold and that you will promote.For example, today I would argue that people like Elon Musk, who even though they're businessmen and they make money, sure, they are trying to advance the tribe. They're trying to do what's best for the species. They're trying to get us off planet. They're trying to get us into electric cars. They're trying to get us advanced AI. And if it is done in a mostly selfless way where it's about taking care of people, then I think that is an alpha male.And that is an expression of masculinity. It is showing that you're so strong, that your shoulders are so broad, that you can carry others with almost no effort. You can carry others as part of what you do. And the stronger you get, the more you carry.So the best way to find your masculinity is to ask yourself, what is my duty? What am I duty-bound to do? What do I want to do to a level where it involves taking care of something outside of myself?And it has to be genuine and it has to be heartfelt and it has to be done without hope of reward or recognition. So it cannot be something that is given to you by society. It cannot be something that is inflicted upon you by books, by your parents, by movements, or by something that's going to make you popular with the people around you. In fact, if it's a true core value, it's something that you will do even if and when it makes you unpopular with the people around you.Good luck with everything and don't listen to other people.As a footnote, one thing that's become popular recently is men who attract other men by showing off jewelry and cars and how many girls they have. They've gotten pretty big on social media, but those are essentially perverted, almost a caricature of feminine behaviors that they're doing to attract other women and to attract young men. But no true alpha cares what car they drive or how much jewelry they have or how many girlfriends they have, and they certainly don't use that as the way to signal their alpha. It signals exactly the opposite. It signals status-seeking, desperate, attention-seeking behavior. So don't go down that route.
The Unscheduled Life Naval 2023-11-24 | From the room “Managing Time” on getairchat.comgetairchat.com/garysheng/managingtime?b=a4559ece-c7e5-45ae-b1e4-fb5eca3d0010The Unscheduled LifeStart by saying no to everything. I say no to everything. I don't have a calendar. When people say, how about such and such time? I say, “hmm, well, I would have to either set an alarm for it or I would have to remember it.” That way, unless I really, really badly want to do it, I just can't even do it. The maximum number of meetings I can have per day is one, because that's all I can remember or all I'm going to set an alarm for.Second, I push everything asynchronous and unscheduled.My mottos are, “better bored than busy,” and “the overscheduled life isn't worth living.”The world is full of opportunity. You just have to be available and have time and mental space to grab it. And when you grab it, you're going to be sorry you grabbed it because now there's a thousand other things you can't grab. So you only want to grab the ones that really, really, really appeal to you. It has to bring you out of retirement, essentially. But you do need something to focus on because if you don't, what are you going to do all day? You'll just drink yourself to death or do stupid things.It does mean that you have to unschedule your entire life around you. I see many parents whose children's lives are scheduled and then they try to live an unscheduled life. It doesn't work. If your children have school times, nap times, play times, times when they have to eat, times when they have to go to bed, then your own life will be scheduled as well. Nothing wrong with that. Most of us don't have the luxury of being unscheduled, but if you do, your entire life around you has to be unscheduled.It also means every single event is voluntary. You never commit to showing up and speaking at an event. You never commit to a birthday party. You never commit to a wedding. You never commit to a bar mitzvah. It means you never commit, you never let your wife commit you to anything. You never commit her to anything. If somebody asks, is he available for X? She doesn't even ask on their behalf. If somebody asks me, is she available for X? I don't even ask her on their behalf. So, completely free and unscheduled. It's about as hard as it sounds, but it's about ten times more rewarding than it sounds.It means you have to break the heart of every person who expects you to be in a specific place at a specific time. That's their expectation. It's their problem, not yours.You have to get comfortable ghosting people who become too familiar. They text you too much. They Airchat you too much. They email you too much. Just stop responding. The monkey on their back that they're trying to put on yours is not your problem. You just have to be comfortable walking away with no remorse.When you look back on your life in that final moment, you will wish that you'd spent more time on the timeless and less time on the temporary and there are very, very few timeless things.
David Deutsch: Knowledge Creation and The Human Race, Part 2 Naval 2023-08-11 | Popper’s Impact 0:00 Creative Guesses 2:18 Experiments, Demonstrations, and Measurements 4:25 Taking Theories Seriously 10:25 New Paradigms 15:58 Foundations of Science 23:30 The Enlightenment 25:39 Misinformation 29:45 — Transcript http://nav.al/david-deutsch-2This is Part 2 of my interview with David Deutsch about knowledge and the human race. Also see Part 1: youtube.com/watch?v=YyxepLfH1ZU&ab_channel=Naval
David Deutsch: Knowledge Creation and The Human Race, Part 1 Naval 2023-02-12 | Introduction 0:00The Human Race 2:11 Knowledge Creation 12:34 AGI 15:50 Taking Children Seriously 23:30Good Explanations 27:49Quantum Computers 36:35—Transcript http://nav.al/david-deutschThis is Part 1 of my interview with David Deutsch about knowledge and the human race. Also see Part 2: youtube.com/watch?v=aQfeYBa1MTk
Understanding, Not Memorization Naval 2022-04-27 | Understanding, not memorization. By youtube.com/c/SmartNonsense. #Shorts
Let Us Not Talk Falsely Now Naval 2022-04-26 | Intro 0:00‘Web3 is the business model for open source’ 1:27Web3 doesn't have to go mainstream to be valuable 3:18Life is a single player game 5:53Be carful mixing the truth with what you want to be true 12:32In the modern world, clarity of thought is everything 15:52Pseudonymity and accountability 20:42Read what you love until you love to read 25:00Physicists get the ultimate feedback from reality 34:46‘People who converge on the truth converge together’ 41:04‘extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ 42:37Ruthlessly prioritize your time 46:12Web3 in the developing world 49:29Being wrong in the digital world doesn't cost as much 55:33Don’t take on problems you can’t solve 59:01Knowledge is what makes a resource a resource 1:01:02Pessimism is intellectually seductive 1:05:05Don’t worship at the alter of credentials 1:06:55Be wary of scare tactics 1:08:47The ‘final boss’ for crypto is the state 1:14:12Crypto is the Internet’s immune response to overregulation 1:21:10History will look unkindly on attacks on free speech 1:23:11Outro 1:26:58
Hard Work Alone Isnt Enough Naval 2022-04-19 | Hard work is no substitute for who you work with and what you work on. By youtube.com/c/SmartNonsense. #Shorts
Vitalik: Ethereum, Part 2 Naval 2022-04-14 | The elder statesman of smart contract blockchains 0:00 The Ethereum community 1:22 The DAO hack 2:34 Vitalik’s finest and worst moments in protocol politics 5:18 Becoming a Twitter memelord 7:45 Vitalik’s influence on Eth today 8:59 It’s getting harder to do big things in Eth 10:38 Goals outside Ethereum 12:17 Crypto needs the good-natured 15:00 Russia 18:06 Vitalik’s lifestyle 19:51 Closing thoughts 22:06 — Transcript http://nav.al/vitalik-2This is Part 2 of my interview with Vitalik Buterin about Ethereum and blockchains. Also see Part 1: youtube.com/watch?v=g87ZSTomZDY
Vitalik: Ethereum, Part 1 Naval 2022-04-08 | Introduction 0:00Haseeb’s background 0:22Vitalik’s background 2:43A blockchain you can build any app on top of 7:02Eth trades efficiency for transparency 10:18Like plain text, Eth is simple and efficient 12:41Only high-value transactions can afford the blockchain 13:08Doing away with ‘trusted’ third parties 14:09Trading performance for security 14:43‘Impregnable castles made of math’ 16:23Ethereum’s limitations are latency and privacy 16:56There are ways to get back your privacy 19:32Can Eth provide a high level of decentralization and a high level of scaling at the same time? 20:39Sharding leads to more centralization 21:49Verifiability at the expense of scaling 24:00How much decentralization is the right amount? 25:11 What happens when subsidies to join nodes disappear? 27:07Stateless clients make it possible to verify the chain with very little on your hard drive 28:18Staking culture is difficult to cultivate 28:52New blockchain players tend to go for minimum viable decentralization 29:54People don’t value privacy until somebody goes to jail over it 30:32Eth is ‘simple at the base’ 31:12Social recovery wallets make it easier to be your own bank 31:44Block space is getting expensive 32:41There’s not a lot of innovation on Bitcoin, by design 33:35Blockchain’s ‘free-rider effect’ 34:57Innovation is slowest at Layer 1 35:34Layer 2 moves faster because it’s permissionless 36:59What if we froze Layer 1 today? 37:25Data for computation trade-off 38:57 Benchmarking blockchains apples-to-apples 40:02Enshrining decentralization 41:43Tensions between scaling and preserving value 42:27There will be multiple stores of value 43:54—Transcript http://nav.al/vitalikThis This is Part 1 of my interview with Vitalik Buterin about Ethereum and blockchains. Also Part 2: youtube.com/watch?v=CdgjGykrByM&t=1332s
Making Money Isnt About Luck Naval 2022-01-11 | Making money isn't about luck. By youtube.com/c/SmartNonsense. #Shorts
The Beginning of Infinity, Part 2 Naval 2021-12-22 | With a Good Theory of Knowledge, You Can Decide What Else Is True 0:00No Truth Can Be Justified 1:35There Can Be No Final Theory of Gravity 3:49Genetic Evolution Was a Prelude to Memetic Evolution 7:03Humans Are Exceptional 9:27We Are Qualitatively Different From Other Species 11:45More Compute Power Doesn’t Produce AGI 13:18It’s Mind Blowing That Our Minds Can’t Be Blown 14:55Where Are the Aliens? 17:29Intelligent Species Have Risen Only Once on Planet Earth 18:33The Probability of Human Existence Is Infinitesimally Small 21:40If You Can’t Program It, You Haven’t Understood It 23:03Aliens Might Just Be Too Far Away 23:46Aliens Would Visit for Knowledge, Not Resources 25:59Ideas Are the New Oil 28:19One Einstein Is Worth A Legion Of PhD Drones 31:22Don’t Rely on Credibility Stamps 32:44 Innovation Requires Decentralization and a Frontier 34:27The Poverty of Compromise 37:21Free Markets Provide the Best Feedback 40:18Making Something Social Destroys the Truth of It 42:52Groups Never Admit Failure 45:17Knowledge Makes the Existence of Resources Infinite 47:24To a Caveman Very Few Things Are Resources 49:56—Transcript http://nav.al/infinity-1This is Part 2 of my interview with @bretthall9080 about The Beginning of Infinity. Also see Part 1: youtube.com/watch?v=jEmJIA0pEf0&t=1s.
