The point of Russias meat wave tactics Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-12-20 | Russia takes huge losses with the so-called human meat wave attacks that they use on the frontline. In this video I discuss the meaning, and why the Russian commanders may see the casualties as a benefit rather than a problem. 0:00 Meat wave assaults0:31 Meat wave tactics work1:25 Taking losses as strategic messaging3:37 Misunderstanding the Western debate5:12 Counterproductive for Russia
Attrition is beginning to bite Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-10-15 | Many news stories describe how things are hard in Ukraine or Russia, but they often give a distorted image of the war by not comparing the two sides. The thing to remember is that things are supposed to get hard in a war of attrition. We should be careful about not reading too much into reports about how things are tough on one side, because it doesn't say much about how the war is going.0:00 Intro0:27 Problems on both sides1:00 Asymmetric journalistic access1:52 Must be compared to make sense2:22 Attrition is working3:53 Still an equal fightSubscribe to my newsletter and support the channel:logicofwar.com
Why did experts fail to predict Russias invasion of Ukraine? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-10-06 | I discuss why so many experts failed to predict the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We must learn from this experience and improve our IR theories so we can do better next time. As someone who got the analysis more or less right, I feel I have a contribution to make to the discussion – both about why so many experts got it wrong, but also about what it meant to get it right in the first place.0:00 Intro0:50 Failure to predict Russia's invasion4:42 Overestimating Russia5:39 Who was right?6:50 Excuses get in the way of learning7:21 IR theories are inadequate8:05 Aspects of getting it right9:00 What I said back then10:53 Mistake 1: Not understanding Russia11:27 Putin had already won?12:52 Mistake 2: Misunderstanding rationality14:47 Putin does not understand Ukraine15:32 Putin as a strategic genius16:46 A good debateReport by Eliot Cohen and Phillips O'Brien: "The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure"csis.org/analysis/russia-ukraine-war-study-analytic-failureMy article in RÆSON from 12 February 2024: "Anders Puck Nielsen: Pas på med optimismen. Det peger mod krig i Ukraine, og vi skal tænke dilemmaerne igennem nu"https://www.raeson.dk/2022/anders-puck-nielsen-pas-paa-med-optimismen-det-peger-mod-krig-i-ukraine-og-vi-skal-taenke-dilemmaerne-igennem-nu/The full interview with John Mearsheimer from 15 February 2022: youtube.com/watch?v=Nbj1AR_aAcESubscribe to newsletter and support the channel: logicofwar.com
Russias war economy is unsustainable Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-09-24 | Many people assume that Russia has endless resources and can continue the war forever, but that is a misunderstanding. In this video I discuss the Russian wartime economy, and why we are approaching a tipping point where it will be harder for Russia to sustain the war.0:00 Budanov's statement1:09 "Russia's endless resources"1:30 Wartime economies2:51 Drivers of inflation5:48 An unsustainable way to run an army6:58 Approaching the tipping point7:36 Sanctions are working8:06 Depleted military stockpiles10:24 Political will in the WestSubscribe to newsletter and support the channel:logicofwar.comLook at @CovertCabal for good OSINT rundowns of Russia's remaining stocks of equipment.
Why is NATO not responding to Russian provocations? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-09-12 | Why does the West not respond forcefully to Russian provocations and hybrid attacks? In this video I discuss the Western approach, and it is not an expression of weakness. The key to understanding the strategy is to view Russian hybrid attacks as information operations.The Western strategy of non-response might not be sustainable going forward, though.0:00 A wave of hybrid attacks0:34 Provocations and hybrid war1:13 The Western lack of reaction2:37 Mostly an information operation3:21 Moving the war home to Europe4:22 Denying the information effect5:15 Communication about hybrid threats6:16 A viable strategy?Support the channel and subscribe to my newsletter:http://www.logicofwar.com
How is the war going? — September 2024 Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-09-01 | An overview of the frontlines in Ukraine and Russia with a focus on Kursk, Pokrovsk, and strategic bombing.0:00 Intro0:39 Kursk sector2:05 Frontlines in Ukraine3:21 Pokrovsk5:05 Reasons not to panic8:49 Strategic air campaignsSubscribe to newsletter and support the channel:logicofwar.com
Ukraine can face a bigger Russian army Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-08-19 | Putin has a dilemma after Ukraine's offensive in Kursk, and he will probably try to escalate his way out of it. That will require a policy change where Russia starts using their conscripts in the war. It will be politically dangerous for Putin, but it can substantially increase the size of their fighting force.Russia's initial response indicates that they are pursuing this path but proceeding slowly to avoid domestic backlash.0:00 Intro0:35 Ukraine's goals1:57 Russia's military dilemma3:22 Making the frontline longer5:13 Putin's political dilemma5:57 Three groups of soldiers8:04 A trend toward escalation9:08 Engaging the conscripts11:39 Diversion from Ukraine frontline12:20 Ukraine will face a conscript armySupport the channel and subscribe to my newsletter:logicofwar.com
Ukraines attack into the Kursk region Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-08-08 | A quick take on what Ukraine is trying to do with their incursion into the Kursk region of Russia.0:00 A "What the heck" moment1:14 More than a raid3:27 Why are they doing it?4:58 A diversion and denying Russia a break5:49 Moving the war into Russia6:55 Limitations of U.S. escalation management7:39 Putin's conscription dilemma10:07 SummarySupport the channel and subscribe to the newsletter: logicofwar.com
Ukraine and Russia are still far from real negotiations Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-07-29 | Both Russia and Ukraine are talking about peace negotiations, but the devil is in the details. Behind the soundbites they are not saying anything new, and nothing indicates that there is a basis for negotiations. So why are they putting so much effort into simulating a desire to negotiate right now?0:00 Everyone is talking about peace1:01 Russia's talk about peace3:48 Ukrainian talk about peace5:03 The other side is free to surrender5:25 Trump hedging7:15 Downsides for UkraineSupport the channel and subscribe to my newsletter: https://www.logicofwar.com.
Time for a new Ukrainian offensive? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-07-16 | I discuss the pros and cons of Ukraine launching a counteroffensive as soon as possible when the current Russian offensive has culminated. The Ukrainian leadership has strong incentives to retake the initiative in the war, but it would be a risky move before the American elections.0:00 Intro0:24 Who took the initiative when?1:50 The point of culmination2:56 The current Russian offensive3:38 Arguments for a quick counteroffensive6:06 Arguments against a quick counteroffensive7:00 Avoiding a new shell hunger8:48 Ends, ways, meansSupport the channel and subscribe to my newsletter: https://www.logicofwar.com.
How is the war going? — July 2024 Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-07-08 | An overview of the frontlines in Ukraine and what to expect in the coming months.0:00 Intro0:39 Kharkiv sector3:22 Donbas frontline5:57 The southtern front6:37 Kharkiv diversion?7:47 Strategic bombing8:31 The big picture9:35 Point of culmination10:04 The coming months Support the channel: logicofwar.com
Russias view on the ICC and war crimes Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-06-30 | The confrontation between Russia and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has been intensified with arrest warrants on Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov. The former defense minister and the top general are charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity. Unfortunately, many people overlook the strategic purpose of Russia's war crimes and how the conflict with the court in The Hague is a part of a bigger battle against the so-called rules based world order.0:00 Arrest warrants on Shoigu and Gerasimov1:07 Differences to Putin's case3:13 Russia's reaction3:35 The rules-based world order4:26 Russian ideas of great powers and sovereignty5:22 Russia wants to undermine the court6:35 The strategic purpose of war crimesSubscribe to my newsletter: https://www.logicofwar.com.
Can air-to-air drones break the frontline deadlock? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-06-22 | Ukraine has shown videos of how they destroy Russian drones with their own drones. The perspective of air-to-air combat between drones is interesting because it can potentially be a solution to the current deadlock on the frontlines.0:00 Air-to-air drones0:33 WWI comparison1:30 Drones favor the defender2:25 The element of surprise3:25 Drones and artillery4:36 Breaking the deadlock5:53 Drones and turtle tanksSubscribe to my newsletter: logicofwar.com
Putin still wants total control over Ukraine Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-06-17 | In this video I look at Putin's demands and his justifications for the war. He recently proposed a peace plan that gives a good glimpse into how he understands the war and the world situation. Essentially his war aims haven't changed, and he still wants total control over Ukraine.0:00 Talk about peace0:50 Ukraine's summit on peace3:28 Putin's peace plan4:23 Putin's demands5:33 Demilitarization and denazification7:40 War aims haven't changed9:10 What Putin wanted to achieve9:33 A glimpse into Putin's mind10:33 Does Putin want peace?Subscribe to my newsletter: https://www.logicofwar.com.
Escalation management and Biden’s strategy for Ukraine Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-06-10 | One of the biggest problems for Ukraine is disagreement with the U.S. about the endgame of the war. Ukraine wants victory, but the Biden administration is concerned about escalation management. In this video I explain the American policy, and what Biden is trying to achieve. There are several types of potential escalation that the American government is trying to balance, and to some extent they are trapped: They must support Ukraine to avoid one type of escalation, but it can lead to another type of escalation if Ukraine is too successful.I also discuss why the policy of escalation management probably won't work in the long run.0:00 Growing Ukraine optimism1:30 Ukraine's vision of victory2:24 Biden's goal of escalation management4:21 Escalation from Russian victory5:10 Red line escalation6:45 Escalation from Russian collapse8:15 Balancing escalation potential11:05 Peace negotiations12:29 Problems with Biden's approachSubscribe to my newsletter: logicofwar.com/.
US weapons will give Russia significant problems Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-06-02 | Ukraine can now hit targets in Russia with American weapons. There are limitations on what Ukraine is allowed to do, but til will still create significant problems for the Russians. And it is a sign that the Kharkiv offensive can backfire for Russia.0:00 Biden's decision0:44 Who made up this red line?2:29 Remaining restrictions for Ukraine4:14 Kharkiv offensive6:48 Removes asymmetric advantage7:43 The taboo has been broken9:21 Russian own goalSubscribe to my newsletter:logicofwar.com
Is Putin ready for ceasefire talks — and does it matter? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-05-26 | Western media is again reporting that Putin secretly wants a ceasefire in Ukraine. We have heard this story before, and it is probably not true. But the important thing is that the West continues supporting Ukraine regardless whether it's true or not.0:00 Putin secretly wants a ceasefire0:41 Why it's probably not true3:16 Limiting Western support4:42 Summit on Peace in Ukraine5:10 Negotiations from strengthVideo released on 26 May 2024.Subscribe to the Logic of War newsletter:logicofwar.com
Russias Kharkiv offensive – what is the plan? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-05-18 | Russia has launched an offensive into the Kharkiv region, and it has created a lot of alarmist news reports. In reality it is difficult to see what Russia's plan is, and it is not self-evident that it is a smart use of resources. In this video I discuss whether we might be seeing a return to the fragmented command structures that Russia had in the beginning of the war. 0:00 A new Kharkiv offensive1:02 An unlikely vector?2:03 Tactically significant results3:03 Three levels of war4:52 Can they take Kharkiv city?5:09 A buffer zone?6:01 A diversion operation?7:39 What is the plan?8:04 Russia might have a bad plan9:30 Fragmented command structure10:42 General Lapin11:52 Balancing the generals13:08 Newsletter announcementSign up for the Logic of War newsletter: logicofwar.com
Can Russia win in Ukraine with nuclear weapons? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-05-11 | The nuclear talk is back. Russia is again threatening the West with nuclear retaliation, but how close are we actually to nuclear war? In this video I discuss what will happen if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and I argue that it will more likely lead to Russian defeat than victory. But unfortunately that does not mean that we can ignore the danger of nuclear escalation as a result of the conflict.0:00 Nuclear rhetoric is back2:01 A weapon of weakness2:40 Less confident about Ukraine strategy4:00 Not a wonder weapon5:15 Could lead to Putin's downfall7:47 The International explanation8:20 A nonproliferation nightmare11:04 When might Russia use nuclear weapons?
The role of smartphones in modern war Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-05-06 | This video features a conversation with Matthew Ford about the influence of smartphones in modern war. The smartphone plays a huge role in Ukraine and Gaza, and it is something we have to get used to on the modern battlefield.Matthew Ford is a researcher at the Swedish Defense University. He is the author of the book "Radical War" and the article "Ukraine, Participation and the Smartphone at War".0:00 Introduction3:18 About Matthew Ford3:57 The interview11:12 What is new in the Ukraine war?18:01 The mix of apps and platforms23:10 Smartphones for military command25:55 AI in data processing29:47 The digital headquarters?35:25 Soldiers as media consumers37:53 War ecologies45:08 Civilians becoming combatants
What will Russia do when Ukraine gets more weapons? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-04-28 | The American assistance package can allow Ukraine to stabilize the frontline, but we should not expect Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive anytime soon. The big question is what Russia will do if they lose momentum on the frontline. Most likely they will double down on bombings of Ukrainian infrastructure because that can help them achieve their strategic goals.0:00 What will happen now?0:20 The scenarios for 20241:59 No Ukrainian offensive4:04 Russian summer offensive4:50 Ukrainian weaknesses6:29 Russia's war aims8:44 How Russia plays the long game9:48 Getting control over Ukraine10:22 Strategic bombings
Is there an alliance between Russia, China, and Iran? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-04-20 | Recent events have caused new discussions about how Russia, Iran, and China work together to destabilize the U.S. led world order. But it's a relationship driven by interests and not common ideology. That is also why the most important reason why China and Iran support Russia's war in Ukraine is that it is disruptive – and not because they actually care whether Russia wins the war.0:00 "A new axis of evil"0:36 Not an alliance1:27 Common interests3:29 China's interests in Ukraine4:06 Iran's interests in Ukraine5:08 United troublemakers6:13 Russia can't lose – too much
Ukraines strategic bombing of Russian oil refineries Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-04-13 | Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries can become a big problem for the Putin government. By targeting fuel production, Ukraine is trying to make the Russian war economy collapse.I also discuss the U.S. opposition to these attacks, and whether it's legal to hit an oil refinery.0:00 Strategic bombing campaigns0:35 Ukraine hitting refineries1:52 What a refinery does3:21 How it hurts Russia4:54 Collapsing Russia's war economy7:05 It's just the beginning8:23 U.S. opposition9:35 Is it legal?
What to expect from a Russian summer offensive? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-04-06 | Russia will probably launch a summer offensive to maintain momentum, and there is concern that the Ukrainian defense lines can collapse. But how bad can it get? In this video I give a status on the current frontline situation and discuss the perspectives.0:00 Russian summer offensive0:31 Current frontline situation1:40 Reasons for Russia's momentum2:46 The mud season3:18 Scenarios for the summer offensive5:31 A frontline collapse?6:18 Missing mobilization7:46 No maneuver warfare9:41 How fast can a man walk?10:29 Ukrainian preparations11:29 The big picture12:45 Russian optimism bias
Was it a false flag operation? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-03-25 | The attack in Moscow is inconvenient for Putin, and it makes the Russian authorities look bad. Therefore they try to find a Ukrainian connection, but ironically the false flag theory is also helpful as a way to improve the narrative.0:00 Conflicting narratives0:40 Signs of a false flag attack1:37 Probably not a false flag3:20 The arrests4:04 Finding a Ukrainian connection5:15 Making the story go away5:33 Incompetence in a police state6:40 Misinformation operation
Putins landslide is a new totalitarian milestone Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-03-18 | Putin's election victory is a dramatic expression of the new political reality in Russia. There is no longer room for even the illusion of opposition. This is part of a project to prepare the population for war.0:00 Putin won the election0:30 Why does Russia have elections?1:09 Works even in the West2:22 Unusual numbers this time4:15 A totalitarian turn5:24 Preparing the population for war6:46 New purpose for elections
Why are maritime drones so hard to beat? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-03-16 | Russia has fired the navy chief because the Black Sea Fleet continues to lose warships. But the reality is there is nothing they can do about it. In this video I explain why maritime drones are such a difficult challenge. We should not expect that other navies in Russia's place would have performed any better.0:00 Russian navy chief fired1:01 A hard problem1:35 Difference between the air and the sea2:39 Sea clutter4:21 Relying on visual observation5:22 Packs of drones6:04 Observation on bigger distances6:34 A problem for all navies7:28 Airpower as a solution
Information war against Russia Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-03-07 | There is a lot of talk about Russian information warfare but less about how the West can influence the discourse in Russia. In this video I argue that the West should not use the same tools as Russia, because we want to achieve the opposite results.I then discuss the role that YouTube plays in Russia, and why Russian YouTube channels may be worth supporting.0:00 Intro1:04 Russian information war2:39 Why the West can't do the same3:48 Goals with Western information war4:22 Preaching won't work5:13 Provide true and relevant information6:46 The role of YouTube in Russia8:34 Russian YouTube channels9:08 Russia tries to silence YouTubers10:45 Funding Russian influencers?Links to the mentioned channels:Maxim Katz: @Max_Katz Michael Naki: @MackNack Obyektiv: @Obyektiv Alexander Plushev: @The_Breakfast_Show
What will happen in year three of the war? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-02-24 | In this video I discuss an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario for Ukraine for the coming year in the light of Russia's current ammunition advantage.0:00 Two years of war0:53 What can happen in year three1:38 Russia's current advantage2:23 Future challenges for Russia's economy4:11 Growing instability in Russia5:23 Russia's advantage is temporary5:58 Ukraine's active defense6:36 The optimistic scenario7:12 The pessimistic scenario9:10 Supply security is the variable9:47 The West in strategic vacuum
How soon can a NATO-Russia war happen? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-02-15 | It's a mistake to assume that the war in Ukraine must end before Russia can be a threat to NATO. This idea is built on a paradox, and it doesn't take into account the question of Europe's limited defense resources. On the contrary, a Russian attack on NATO could be a way to improve their chances in Ukraine.0:00 Intro0:24 Why Russia could attack NATO1:54 Different time estimates3:19 Why not now?4:09 The sequential scenario5:45 The simultaneous scenario7:37 A way to divert resources from Ukraine
How to get Putin out on thin ice Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-02-10 | Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin has started a discussion about what critical questions to the Russian president would actually look like. Many western journalists get this wrong, because their ideas about sensitive topics are very different from Putin's. He would be absolutely comfortable with questions about war crimes. To get Putin out on thin ice, you have to ask about things where there is something at stake for him. 0:00 Tucker Carlson's interview0:36 Putin repeats himself2:00 Tucker Carlson and Putin2:58 What would a journalist have asked?3:58 The problem with questions about war crimes6:07 What are the tough questions to Putin?
NATO-Russia war: Can it really happen? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-01-27 | Will Russia attack NATO in the coming years? In this video I discuss the recent warnings from military leaders and politicians, and I explain why the risk is bigger than many people think.0:00 Possible war between Russia and NATO?1:12 Wrong assumptions about a war?2:46 Russia wants bilateral relations4:23 Undermining NATO7:01 A calibrated challenge of Article 58:06 A possible scenario9:47 The collapse of NATO
Can Russia win the military production race? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-01-20 | Wars of attrition are won by the defense industry, so in this video I discuss the production capacity in Russia and the West. It is hard to see how Russia can compete if the West decides to invest in serious defense production.0:00 Attrition and production2:09 Direct comparison of GDP2:52 Where does China fit in?3:57 Problems with nominal GDP4:37 Purchasing power parity5:24 Comparing GDP corrected for PPP7:44 Can Russia win the production race?
Why Ukraine cant provide a clear strategy to Mike Johnson Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-01-13 | House Speaker Mike Johnson demands a clear strategy from Ukraine before he will allow a vote on more weapons from the United States. But that is a misunderstanding of what a military strategy is, so in this video I explain the concept.0:00 Mike Johnson demands Ukraine strategy1:44 Ends, ways, and means3:26 The linear understanding of strategy4:21 The actual process of making a strategy4:59 Ukraine's goals and possible methods6:14 The catch-22 of Ukraine's means7:01 The role of Congress in strategy development9:00 Ukraine in a strategic limbo
Why is Russia bombing civilians? Anders Puck Nielsen 2024-01-05 | Russia's has launched massive missile strikes on Ukraine, and they hit many civilian objects. But it's a mistake to overlook the military objectives and explanations.0:00 Russia's missile strikes0:13 Fighter jets and landing ship1:45 Missile strikes not revenge2:48 A different approach from last year4:23 Overwhelming the air defenses5:55 Ukraine is less vulnerable6:34 Not only civilian targets7:11 Complicating damage assessment8:07 Air defense missiles falling down?8:45 Missiles shot down9:02 Electronic jamming10:19 Hitting the defense industry11:35 Reasons for Russia's missile campaign
Ukraine shoots down multiple Russian jets Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-12-25 | Ukraine has shot down five Russian fighter jets in the last few days. In this video I discuss what is going on, and why it may be the beginning of a new phase in the air war.0:00 Five Russian fighters down0:26 Russian glide bombs1:40 The radar horizon1:56 Ukrainian long-range missiles2:35 Patriot trap?4:03 F-16 surprise appearance?5:03 Helicopter story6:01 The difference F-16 will make6:40 Interesting period for the air war
Russia on the offensive again Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-12-10 | I look at the current Russian fall offensive. It was somewhat surprising that Russia had the resources to launch an offensive, but now that it is here, we should expect it to continue for the foreseeable future.0:00 The Russian fall offensive0:27 Three offensives of 20232:02 A positional deadlock3:01 Russia's offensive ambitions3:50 Political reasons for the offensive'5:12 Brutality of Russia's tactics5:35 Russia's personnel resources8:53 Don't expect a Ukrainian counteroffensiveLink to the interview with me on @SiliconCurtain: youtu.be/A10Hl913qgg?si=MUg1B3rmYkcw1s6Z
How did they wargame this? Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-12-06 | This is a snippet from my appearance on @SiliconCurtain that you can find here: youtu.be/A10Hl913qgg?si=VluCCz3PPqUtkJeq
What is a genocide? Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-11-28 | I try to clear up some misunderstandings about genocides, and then I compare the situation in Gaza to the genocide case against Putin.0:00 Misunderstanding genocide1:13 What is a genocide?2:44 And individual and intentional crime3:29 A genocide in Gaza?4:32 The genocide case against Putin5:59 Comparing Gaza to Putin
Ukraines river crossing can change the war Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-11-16 | Ukraine's foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River can be the most important development on the frontline for over a year. If they manage to expand it into a real bridgehead, that will change the dynamics of the entire battlefront.0:00 Breaking the stalemate0:39 The frontline of 20231:50 The river3:23 The Ukrainian foothold4:21 A Russian withdrawal?5:31 What is a more favorable position?6:29 The Russian dilemma7:56 After Russia's current offensive
Ukraine is losing the media war to Israel Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-11-09 | The war in Israel and Gaza has diverted media attention away from Ukraine, and it could end up diverting resources for war fighting too. But these two wars are very different, and for the West a lot more is at stake in Ukraine.0:00 Israel and Hamas overshadow Ukraine1:48 A more urgent crisis2:42 American politics3:11 Misunderstanding Russia's motives4:33 An existential threat5:24 Two types of war6:22 Supporting Ukraine7:00 Future media coverage
Forget about war fatigue: It will be a long war Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-11-03 | Ukraine's chief of defense says some dramatic things in an interview with The Economist: The war is at a stalemate, and Russia is in a better position to win a long war of attrition. In this video I reflect on the context of general Zaluzhny's comments, and what he is really trying to say.0:00 Intro0:26 The book1:35 Zaluzhnu's interview1:53 The summer offensive is over3:49 Russia's new offensive4:26 Disappointing results5:35 Accepting the long term7:22 Zaluzhny's goal with the interview8:51 Is Russia winning the long war?Get the book (Krigens Logik): apnielsen.info/krigens-logik
How is the war going? – Early October 2023 Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-10-06 | I give a status on Ukraine's offensive and try to look forward into the next phase of the war. Then I reflect on Russia's lack of large-scale mobilization and Putin's efforts to isolate the fighters from the rest of the Russian society.0:00 Let's skip the seasons1:09 The map overview2:24 What comes next?3:35 No culmination yet4:12 No Russian mobilization wave5:12 Putin isolates the soldiers from society6:47 Mobilization and Russian elections8:28 Reinforcements are not coming before the spring9:55 Not a stalemate
Is Ukraine running out of soldiers? Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-09-19 | I answer the question of whether Ukraine can sustain the losses in the war, and what it means that they are losing experienced soldiers on the frontlines.0:00 Intro0:43 Russian casualties1:48 American estimates2:35 Ukrainian losses3:00 Draft dodgers3:58 Estimating mobilization potential4:54 A contest of willpower5:59 Casualtiest are a training problemFollow me on Mastodon as @anderspuck@krigskunst.social.
Fear is the new normal in Russian politics Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-08-31 | Prigozhin's plane crash and the arrest of Igor Girkin paint a picture of a new reality in Russian politics, where ideology is forbidden, and only fear remains. It is a next step on the ladder of repression.This video is a bit more rough than usual. As you can tell from the video, I was a but under the weather. So no animations or bullet lists this time. I hope the message is clear enough anyways.0:00 Intro0:38 End of Wagner mutiny1:47 Putin's revenge2:07 The normal playbook for cover-ups3:05 Russian media coverage this time4:18 Putin's message5:10 Girkin in prison5:52 Opposition in Russia8:27 The end of ideology10:09 Fear as the new ideology
How many fighter jets does Ukraine need? Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-08-18 | It takes time to build an air force, so the West should focus on what kind of air force Ukraine will need in 4-5 years. The U.S. approval of F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands is a start, but much more is needed.0:00 Intro0:20 Transition to Western equipment1:10 The need for Western aircraft2:24 A long-term project3:40 How big an air force does Ukraine need?4:53 A growth plan
Was Bakhmut worth it? — Reaction to Michael Kofman Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-08-12 | Did Ukraine undermine their own counteroffensive by fighting stubbornly in Bakhmut? Michael Kofman has been making this argument, but I think he misses some important nuances.0:00 Intro0:34 Who is Michael Kofman?1:10 The Battle for Bakhmut1:42 Kofman's argument1:58 Unfavorable attrition2:52 Russia was running out of steam3:16 Undermined preparations for counteroffensive3:52 Problems with Kofman's argument4:11 Timeline for convicts5:09 Russia was attacking everywhere5:40 Ukraine eliminated Wagner7:21 Academic competitionLink to the mentioned podcast:ZOOMING OUT ON UKRAINE’S OFFENSIVE, Michael Kofman and Ryan Evans, War on the Rocks, 3 August 2023,warontherocks.com/2023/08/zooming-out-on-ukraines-offensive
Is Wagner going to attack Poland? Anders Puck Nielsen 2023-08-04 | There are rumors that Wagner is planning an attack in Poland. In this video I discuss whether 2014 is about to repeat itself, and how the West can deal with hybrid warfare. I also speculate on the possibility of a second Wagner coup in Russia.0:00 Wagner and Poland2:15 The Suwalki Gap3:04 Russia does not want a war with NATO now3:33 Hybrid warfare3:52 Can 2014 repeat itself?5:11 Responding to hybrid attacks8:07 Putin's relationship with Wagner9:25 Another Wagner coup
